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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • Obama's Economic Team: What Did We Expect? [View article]
    There is a decent little article on the Harvard debacle from vanity fair awhile back. "Rich Harvard, Poor Harvard" by Nina Munk August 2009 I believe.
    Sep 22 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
    Klarman's worried about the dollar too, and for good reason. Yesterday that dollar/chf chart looked like Paul Mccartney at an alimony hearing. It turns into a real sticky trade when homebase(cash) isn't so homey. I agree groupthink on the dollar demise vs gold trade seems scary to me too. I am not a paper money fan by any means, but, one has to wonder what happens when we finally dig a hole to china producing gold (or any other PM for that matter) you know it just stays in above ground inventory. One thing the fed actually has done from time to time is contract the money supply (try to refrain from laughing too hard). Do we ever really see the gold supply contract? It's not like the central banks of the world say 'gee, there's too much gold floating around we should probably dig a hole and bury some or launch it into space or something' Anyway, being long things that are not dollars continues to work, so I'll worry about it another day. Bottom line is we all need liquidity in order to navigate the streams and rivers that are financial markets, but, it appears huber cash is the path of pain. I guess if I had a few billion dollars laying around I would buy a railroad too.
    Sep 22 01:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
    OT,

    You can buy it on amazon for $1500 LOL.

    cheers
    Sep 21 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Now Take the Lead? [View article]
    I agree here for silver and continue to wait for the 'mom&pop' trade to kick in. This last week's strong move is very convincing and agree that it feels more like the beginning than the end. IMHO there is a solid portion of the US population that an ounce of gold might as well cost a million, they'll buy silver. This point got driven home literally for me as I watched a crappy youtube vid a year or so ago of some mad dude smashing stuff with a slugger, venting about Goldman, and thinking 40-1oz slips of the white stuff is going to get him through armageddon. They are going to be passing those things at tea parties like condoms at woodstock.
    Sep 19 01:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
    Thank you for the response,

    Oh yes, I wholly agree regarding a pittance of a return on short dated maturities in exchange for the liquidity freedom that comes with not encumbering oneself with longer dated issues. That is why I positioned myself this way, I was just bemoaning the fact that I don't think I have ever received a coupon as low as I do now. The slightly higher yield on longer dated issues imho is a fool's game. I am nearly to the point of initiating a TBT position. STL fed Bullard's paper last month is worth reading imho, the parts I gleaned were in the last 300+ years the BOE has never let the borrowing rate fall below 2%, but, has stimulated more instead of falling below that benchmark, we are now 0-0.25%. That is important to me, and good or bad MSM seems to focus on the ten year, shooting from the hip here below 2% on the ten year is my bogey for the world ending. I think we go the other way though, hence my propensity for short dated maturities so I can roll positively into a steeper curve going forward. A steeper curve that is built upon the back of a weaker dollar. (Warning!!! Bowmore Islay Scotch influence read at your own risk) Since I am shooting from the hip, I want to make a prediction that if politically we turn more decidedly fiscal republican conservative going forward Mr Bullard's paper last month was a way of throwing his hat into the ring for chairman. I base this on his young clean cut good looks (palatable) and affable manner vis a vis passive/aggressive hawk/dove combined with my opinion that he is a clean fit (appointable) as someone like a Hoenig is too "hawkish" , but, Bullard is "just right." If you will allow a star wars analogy: Hoenig "sith master" Bullard "sith apprentice." Fed governors have diarrhea of the mouth recently seldom have I seen so many independant opinions outside fomc publicized. Uncle Ben is still my man like him or hate'm he was our cap't in the rough waters, there will be armchair QB's heckling him for years. I continue to be wary of Greenspan's "conundrum" in the years ahead. The counterintuitive behavior of rates in response to rate changes at key inflection points to me is a bizarre clue that the savings "glut" and increased percentage of emerging market dollar holdings has a contrarian effect, vis a vis emerging's markets saving propensity outweighs developed markets spending (wasting) propensity. If this comes to pass then down is up and we are on our way to a deflationary "lost decade". I can't believe this, however, as we I believe are a more dynamic culture that embrace destruction as part of the creative process. Embracing destruction will be the continual unwinding of out of the money assets held by institutions in expectations of redeploying liquidity in more realistic ventures. This IMHO is why we are different and that for honor's sake we swallow our pride reprice and move forward instead of the death cling until mark to model maturity.
    Sep 13 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
    My currency positions are my sideline cash of the portfolio. They serve mainly as liquidity and "foxhole" hedge, I was purely USD in spring'09 from there developed 50/50 weight into CAD/USD by summer '09. Net selling of some stocks and "in the money" options in the last month or so has doubled my sideline, this recent addition has gone to CHF. My main reason for diversifying my liquid cash is that I am concerned about the strength of the dollar, I am not looking to do great on this, merely trying not to get creamed. I have been of the mind that our recovery of the last year and a half has been built upon the back of the dollar, much like our wars alongside tax cuts. I believe the world is watching, and especially since the EU has taken some tough medicine, lack of political will aka "economic populism" probably punishes dollar power which pops anything denominated in them (including stocks). I am still a bailout backer as it is my belief we would have gotten the royal deflationary flush(which flushes jerks and virtuous indiscriminately). Those bonuses though man they torqued me royal. IMHO this talk of the fed having no bullets is nonsense they have a monetary machine gun with unlimited ammo. I have been scared of CHF/USD chart reversing for some time now as it has been thoroughly trounced for the better part of 8 years now. I agree with Buffett in that I don't like cash except for liquidity/bargain hunting purposes. I like my TIPS to be looong dated otherwise I have moved my bond positions to the short duration to mitigate par deterioration in the coming years, so I am getting nearly no yield now to bet that medium-long term rates rise with expectations of "inflation", I'm not in the hyperinflation camp by any means (credit has been too pounded for that), but, I think there is a trend/up-trajectory and I am not interested in fighting it, imho the trend is painfully obvious especially if you are stuffing a mattress, biblical folks may want to re-read the parable of the talents when it comes to digging a hole and (literal/figurative) burying your money. Take a gander at USD/CAD and CHF/USD long term charts. Since initiating CHF in the last few weeks the dollar has sunk approx 4% against it, that and The Great Roubini has been pimping the CHF at lake como.
    Sep 6 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
    OT,

    Thanks for the article,

    I would find myself much the same as when I spoke last month, except that I have rebalanced much out of fear cash equivalents into 50/25 25 chf usd/cad cash equivalents. Also, a net seller mdoef @7.95 limit out a few weeks ago, seller prgn a few weeks ago. I feel what you speak of now is exceptionally pertinent. I am a holdout for ECA where it is or less. These are interesting times. As always I respect your thoughts and opinions. Watching IVZ, CBOE, and ECA, holding pvx, ed, fnfg, aa, intc, ge, phys AG, and land. Watching sirloin steak prices at the supermarket, I remember 2.69/lb in 3/09 currently 3.88/lb spiked 4.88/lb in april '10. I am a watcher of grains, Just BS'ing but OCT is my bet for short on grains though could change.
    Aug 30 12:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Dividend Stocks Delivering Good News [View article]
    I agree with the steel comment
    Aug 23 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing for the Likely Scenario of Deflation [View article]
    and a capital gains tax rate of 25%
    Aug 13 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Not Alone  [View instapost]
    OT,

    Thanks for the input, I really appreciate and respect your thoughtful posts on this site.
    Jul 30 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Not Alone  [View instapost]
    OT,

    BTW, do you care to comment on your take on the pace oil spinoff shares. I'm still conflicted as to what I want to do with mine, I'm kind of a pack rat so I tend to keep things, but, I'm not wild about owning pure E&P in this environment. Part of me wants to sell and roll proceed back into pvx now that it is progressing with a more stable toll road model. I understand if this is too forward a question.

    Regards,
    svosavvy
    Jul 29 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Not Alone  [View instapost]
    I feel the same way. I am a bull in my 30's so I try to look far into the future for my ideas, but, that statement definitely lets some wind out of the sails. I can't believe there isn't more nabob chatter on that statement. I believe fear is a quantation of the unknown and the defender of monetary policy just said 'I don't know.' I continue w/my current strategy: long quality defensive dividend stocks, a land position with salable timber, and a silver position. Well out of the money leap put sales on stuff I'd really like to own then rolling proceed and cash to cover into long datum TIPS, well out of the money leap call sales on my positions to the point I would be ecstatic if someone called away at those prices treating that income like a bonus dividend. Buy and sell closing option positions if/when they move well in my favor or holding to maturity if well out of my favor. Cash equivalents held for a source of liquidity are diversified 50/50 USD/CAD. Increasing cash position for anticipated buying opportunites.
    Jul 29 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Surpassing U.S. as Largest Energy Consumer Is the Story of the Past Decade [View article]
    That, and a heck of a good way to get out of spare USD's laying around seeing QE dry up the creditor to the distressed avenue.
    Jul 22 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investors Should Be Buying Equities [View article]
    I agree with the sentiment of this article. Too often I read stuff where bears are bearish the dollar and stocks at the same time. Stocks are denominated in dollars, this has been my strategy throughout, imho quality companies with quality dividends beat shiny bits of metal in the 20-30yr long run. This is not to say I'm not long a little shiny metal.
    Jul 19 09:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa (AA): Q2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $5.2B (+22.2%) vs. $5B. (PR)  [View news story]
    "Aluminum is traditionally a backbone of growing economies" Klaus Kleinfeld
    Jul 12 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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