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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • After three years of declines, uranium's rebounding as "insatiable" China's buying more than twice as much uranium as it consumes - building stockpiles (along with India) for a huge nuclear energy expansion. The demand jump should benefit leading miner Cameco (CCJ +2.3%) and top reactor builder Areva (ARVCF.PK).  [View news story]
    Areva's chief had a nice interview on charlie rose a couple days ago.
    Jul 12 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    Man, I gotta get back to work, but, to add 2 more cents. What I think we are going through now is much like one these X-games skateboard tricks. See we have gone through the keynesian portion of our trick and now comes the very difficult and technical portion of our trick where we transition into a more austrian state of mind. It will be tough because first we need to start talking(jawboning) about it. The reaction will help us get a bearing of what the globe can take. Too bold of a 'shore up' will crash us, and continuing down this road of QE will result in cheeseburger induced atherosclerosis vis a vis heart attack. If the classics and the romantics can work together (or at least gridlock so nothing extreme happens)we will get out of this mess. If we can't play nice expect misery. Note to the EU: misery brings about extremism(fascism) imho misery is not only caused by hyperinflation, but, I would argue hyperdeflation as well. And note to germany: nobody will want your euro's if a wacko is elected in one the countries in your club.
    Jul 12 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    It may not be added to the circulating supply of money, but, it is added to your balance sheet. Imho much like a stock issuance. The way I see it the dollar in your pocket is one share of the USA, what happens to your share equity every time there is a monster stock issuance? Don't get me wrong, I have believed in taking extreme measures to get the machinery moving again, because the only way you pay it back is if the system starts working again.
    Jul 12 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    Hitbyatruck

    btw, I don't think the world is ending either(though it may be). But Ferguson does and that would be fine except that he has cultivated a fine living out of his viewpoint so now he's married to it. Kinda like 'The Eagles' I bet they wanna throw up every time they sing 'Hotel California' but it butters the bread so keep doing it.
    Jul 12 10:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    QE-central bank purchasing debts(public or private)with money created out of thin air... hmmm?
    Jul 12 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    I love it, this guy starts out talking about debt risk. This week it is deflation risk and why isn't Big B doing more QE(borrowing/printing). I wonder if you locked this guy in a room if he would sart complaining about himself. This guy is Mises one minute and Krugman the next.
    Jul 12 10:16 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada’s employment rose by 93K in June, almost five times more than economists expected, restoring most of the country’s job losses since 2008 and boosting the likelihood for the central bank to raise interest rates. The jobless rate fell to 7.9% from 8.1% in May.  [View news story]
    That and their central bank has already had a recent rate increase as well. Really says something for political and banking will.
    Jul 9 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS: Lower Duration for Better Inflation Protection [View article]
    Yeah, I don't know. I guess I believe the opposite, I have to admit though I am a long term investor in actual TIPS and not the etf's. I want the long duration based on the idea that imho what we have been experiencing since the crude bubble burst in 08' is a deflationary hitch. It is my belief that the hitch bottomed somewhere 11/08-3/09'ish since then we have been reflating/inflating (potato/potato) From what I can tell massive credit contraction has already occurred and imho credit (inflation/reflation) will be a slow slog with a barely upward trajectory, but, upward nonetheless. Unless we get the double dip. Anyway My take on this is the bizzaro of 1980 treasuries. Basically I think you wanted the long bond in 1980 as that was the rate peak and you could carry a no sweat double digit return for decades with it. 1980 If you bought the short bond you were rolling over in a few years to much smaller yields. This is the way I feel about the long duration TIPS here, I am a holder of the 2029's 2.5%'s. I did most of my buying in may 09' near par. Since then I have had an average 11.5%yoy par appreciation gauged by the sentiment (demand) of the secondary market + 2.5%floor yield + a nominal pittance of an inflation adjustment in my favor. In my judgment you have a floor of 2.5% on the $1000 in an environment where the 20yr treasury is 3.84%, imho that is a cheap inflation bet with a AAA rating(if you're into those). My issue today on the secondary is 1111.68 with a 1.76%. 3.84-1.76 is 2.08% imho a 2% less yield is cheap insurance for the 20 year haul. If we get apocalyptic deflation (which I doubt) you lose out on 2% while still having the full faith backing of uncle Sam. You go short duration here and I think in a few years you will have performance drag from more expensive issue rollovers. All that and I'll take a pass on the insidious expense ratio fees. I've had what I consider good luck with VIPSX in a retirement account as well. btw imho 2001-2007 were pretty monstrous inflation years in their own right. Then again I guess that is what you get when you declare war and issue tax cuts at the same time with massive credit expansion to boot.
    Jul 9 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Intel [View article]
    Thanks for the article. INTC imho is a great company selling at a fair price. I like it for all the reasons mentioned and I also echo tunaman's sentiment. Another product of theirs the atom chip is a very big deal in portable devices imho. With every passing day both the scope and portability of information devices increases. I initiated an opening position a few months ago in february.
    Jun 25 03:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why BP Is Not a Bargain Stock [View article]
    I agree with the sentiment of the article. That said I am always on the lookout for value. This is leading me to look at their debt, I haven't moved yet, but, I find it compelling if you don't have the stomach for outright lottery tickets which is what the stock is. There will be a ton of fat between bondholders and the road namely shareholders. Short term debt yield is in the mid 4's. Yesterday long term broke 6. A stink day today may allow me to initiate a starting position. I am looking at intermediate length somewhere to park cash until the greater market rates rise. I think 2-3yr debt trading at a discount to par yielding mid 5's is an appropriate way for me to profit(?) from the current crisis.
    Jun 4 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Drivers May 31-June 4: Ongoing EU Debt Crisis, Economic Wild Cards, Market Calendar [View article]
    thanks for your thoughts
    Jun 4 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Key Drivers May 31-June 4: Ongoing EU Debt Crisis, Economic Wild Cards, Market Calendar [View article]
    Hi Cliff,

    Love your articles. What do you think about the CAD? I have been using it as a currency diversification strategy for the last year, going for the most part 50/50 usd/cad w/my spare cash. I am talking myself into an untested personal hypothesis that there is an outside potential for the cad going forward long term to flip from a risk currency to a safe haven currency kinda like a chf (don't laugh too hard). I think it is a long way off from being in swiss franc territory as far as strength, but, the trend strength vs the usd over the last year has been amazing imho. Last week it was on a knife edge of breaking its bull trend vs the dollar,but, I see this morning the rate rise effectively slammed on the gas and makes me feel the prevailing year trend is still firmly in place. I am not really a paper money bull, but, I also realize you need some cash to make moves. So am I crazy or what. Long silver, aluminum stocks, TIPS bought with put sales, oil trusts, timber on the stump, and plenty of cash for rainy days. Thanks in advance for any response.
    Jun 1 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Know When to Walk Away [View article]
    As I continue to mature I have observed my elders and found often that a good night's sleep is the ultimate intangible asset. With that in mind, it is always prudent to keep your risk within comfortable levels for yourself. It is hard to enjoy those millions won through risk when you have burned a hole through your stomach and your nerves are shot. That said, opportunities generally are hidden within the ashes of upheaval. And for all you flash crashers out there Peter Lynch warned you 20 years ago about stop orders.
    May 24 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World According to Seth Klarman [View article]
    actually 30% cash is pretty low for Klarman considering the outlook, He has held way more % cash during past crises, just an anecdotal observation. I love Klarman he's a smart cookie.
    May 20 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration wants to switch to more cost-effective metals in making pocket change, the WSJ reports, saving $100M annually in the process. But the effort is likely to stir up strong feelings, and there are concerns for small businesses like laundromats, which would have to retrofit machines for new coins.  [View news story]
    have I mentioned I'm bullish of aluminum
    May 10 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
413 Comments
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