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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego' [View article]
    It's the classical vs romantics all over again. If you are a classical then you follow pure numbers and algorithms and they all come up way bearish here. If you are a romantic you follow sentiment and here you are high as a kite. Seems to me the really good investors are pragmatic offspring of the two. I like when Soros says in the alchemy of finance (paraphrased badly) a trend will continue until all those who fought it are laid low. It feels more toppy here because I have been seeing a few bears flip bullish these last few weeks. Once everybody finally gets drunk on the kool aid then I will be running for the exit.
    Sep 17, 2009. 10:48 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short [View article]
    Well put Mr. Tilson.

    Classy and professional as always

    thank you for the read.
    Feb 11, 2011. 01:49 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Long Treasury Is This Fund Manager's Highest Conviction Idea [View article]
    Not to be too vitriolic here, but, were I a high net worth individual under this person's care I would be thinking twice as to why I needed his services. To pay someone to advise me to buy an ETF with a significant expense ratio instead of coming up with an original "tactical portfolio design" seems like hiring a chef to make gourmet mac and cheese and the chef feeds you kraft dinner. Taking a populist viewpoint (that I do not disagree with) and offering an expensive highly emotional ETF is imho underwhelming.
    Jan 26, 2010. 01:25 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely [View article]
    Hey what did the gov do with the gold confiscated in the 1930's? They pegged an outrageously higher price for it after they were majority stakeholder in it. So you could thank the gov for value creation in that era if you had some squirreled away. BTW All you doomsdayers keep buying gold in the near term, because it will make a nice short in a deflationary environment. I can feel the thumbsdown coming in already, bring it on.
    Feb 3, 2009. 08:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niall Ferguson reiterates his worry over an "inevitable" U.S. debt crisis, but he says the "big mystery" right now is why the Fed is so "inactive" in the face of potential deflation and a contraction of money supply. This represents a grave danger, he says, and it's shocking that Bernanke hasn't already begun more aggressive quantitative easing.  [View news story]
    I love it, this guy starts out talking about debt risk. This week it is deflation risk and why isn't Big B doing more QE(borrowing/printing). I wonder if you locked this guy in a room if he would sart complaining about himself. This guy is Mises one minute and Krugman the next.
    Jul 12, 2010. 10:16 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investors Should Be Buying Equities [View article]
    I agree with the sentiment of this article. Too often I read stuff where bears are bearish the dollar and stocks at the same time. Stocks are denominated in dollars, this has been my strategy throughout, imho quality companies with quality dividends beat shiny bits of metal in the 20-30yr long run. This is not to say I'm not long a little shiny metal.
    Jul 19, 2010. 09:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks that Could Pay Out Larger Dividends [View article]
    xom is the best house in the best neighborhood so they don't have to pay a large dividend to be attractive. Dividends are basically a stagnation tax (not a bad thing). If you are not a grower and you have a steady business a dividend can really make a lot of sense. A good dividend that attracts shareholders is a great way to finance instead of tapping fixed and capital markets, in other words if you can offer a dividend that is cheaper than loan yield it's a win for the company and someone who is hungry for yield from stocks. AAPL is a grower don't expect these guys to be dividend aristocrats this decade. They figure the best way to make you money is to make your shares go up. Know thyself when shopping stocks, do you want a grower or a yielder, you can make out either way just have to be realistic so you don't fool yourself. A good yielder that is big with a good credit rating is mcd, remember the better rated a companies debt the less they have to pay for it, so it is also safety vs yield. XOM is super safe so don't expect the moon out of their dividend I agree with a previous poster take a look at BP reasonably safe with a semi tasty yield also dare I say it rds.a if you are more adventurous . imho INTC is a nice hybrid of these two styles, a fair dividend and what I think is a real environment for growth, imho the chip even with its wide use today continues to find more and more relevant avenues for growth as a macro theme, data storage as a need only continues to grow. I don't own intc yet, but, if you are in it for the long haul hitchin your wagon to these guys a little bit probably ain't a bad idea.
    Nov 30, 2009. 10:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook 2010: Three Economic Forces that Will Determine Market Direction [View article]
    As it seems predictions for 2010 are the order of the day... I will try my hand at predictions.

    6. Mr. Cramer will continue to encourage his throng to guzzle cheap scotch on dirty floors while trying to get their money back, while svosavvy will be sipping highland single malt in a comfy chair.

    5. To disagree with Mr Kass: The rolling stones have a better chance of retiring than Warren Buffett does, I would not be surprised to see overt grooming of a potential successor though. (to give kudos, Mr. Kass had the best march bottom call out of all the pundits imho)

    4. As Mr. Bernanke has explicitly implied that it is better to overshoot than reel in too soon (and I agree totally as we only get one shot at this)thus keeping bond pars exceptionally strong. Blue chips will be the port in the storm for savers desperately needing yield.

    3. Options trader: the vix will hit 13.5 by the end of the summer.

    2. Old trader: Will co author pragmatism for dummies, and I will be the first in line to buy it.

    1. Mad Cow: The American citizen will not be completely commoditized until the year 2025 when cash for gold commercials are replaced by cash for organs. Followed up by the wildly popular first born sons for gold in the year 2050.
    Jan 3, 2010. 11:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Specter of Excess Capacity [View article]
    Nice article, a solid base hit. I like to read counterpoint of the monetist ideology. There is no such thing as demandless inflation, the glut of cash hasn't even come close to hitting a consumer. The money will stay safely in the hands of the rich, and with the credit bubble popping there is no way for the average american consumer to borrow money to pay their interest. We as people in the us are like tiny individual third world countries. We have borrowed and borrowed, now no one wants to make a loan so that we can pay the interest on our other loans. We are coming dangerously close to that point where debtors just give up the illusion of paying back. Anyway outside sources are still buying our treasuries providing sufficient speculative inflows there is still grease in the big banks from the stimulus coupled with nearly no demand, the brief hiatus via the china demand story was a nice break from the mundane. Anyway Ron Paul is going to have to wait a little while longer until the punch bowl is taken away before he gets the inflation he so desperately hopes for. So, Ron keep petting your gold bars for now. Food, water, clothing, and shelter are the basic needs of humans and unfortunately eventually we may have pent up demand there eventually. Pent up demand from people who are broke, not a pretty sight.
    Aug 17, 2009. 12:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama: Rush to Judgment [View article]
    Always an informative read Mr Schiff, thank you

    I personally hate talking about politics. Imho looking for result from politicians is like looking for fidelity from a prostitute. I am very curious as to why you think a classical approach to getting out of this lurch is called for? From where I stand it seems that the punishment will not fit the crime. To apply the-you made your bed now sleep in it- tactic at this point seems counterproductive. Even though the candlestick maker may have made outreageous leveraged bets, taking out the candlestick maker altogether is going to cause near term pain and I mean the guillotine kind not the woe is me my stocks are worthless kind. I agree the bad actors need to get taken out and new businesses will flourish in the ashes of old failed ventures. I am a believer in the quantitative easing as futile as it may seem. We are currently all standing around complaining about the economic effects of over stimulus, I think we need to give a little thought to unrest as a result of cold turkey stoppage while new candlestick makers work their way into the trade. I am very curious about how the former administration gets a pass on this mess. Seems to me they switched horses midstream, in the beginning mailing out checks in time of prosperity instead of raising taxes to cool an overheating economy, then when we hit the skids mailing checks again to stimulate. Seems to me they went classical to keynesian, so they made their bed and then went and slept in someone else's. As always I love spirited chat. As they say talk is cheap, I see that as a positive, it's cheap entertainment. Why pay money to be entertained when you can talk for free, lol. Anyway an increase in savings rate is what we are getting and that is fine, hopefully, we also get a responsibility shift. I would like to see a more responsible populous as do all readers here I'm sure. I agree blame lies both in the lenders who lended to people who honestly couldn't afford it and in the borrowers who dishonestly reported they could.
    Mar 10, 2009. 09:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
    Klarman's worried about the dollar too, and for good reason. Yesterday that dollar/chf chart looked like Paul Mccartney at an alimony hearing. It turns into a real sticky trade when homebase(cash) isn't so homey. I agree groupthink on the dollar demise vs gold trade seems scary to me too. I am not a paper money fan by any means, but, one has to wonder what happens when we finally dig a hole to china producing gold (or any other PM for that matter) you know it just stays in above ground inventory. One thing the fed actually has done from time to time is contract the money supply (try to refrain from laughing too hard). Do we ever really see the gold supply contract? It's not like the central banks of the world say 'gee, there's too much gold floating around we should probably dig a hole and bury some or launch it into space or something' Anyway, being long things that are not dollars continues to work, so I'll worry about it another day. Bottom line is we all need liquidity in order to navigate the streams and rivers that are financial markets, but, it appears huber cash is the path of pain. I guess if I had a few billion dollars laying around I would buy a railroad too.
    Sep 22, 2010. 01:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here[View news story]
    Barron's is sh*t always has been, I remember a couple years ago a cover they had "short these stocks" with a guy in his boxers. It was right in the middle of a rip your face off rally. Maybe he lost his shorts listening to them.
    Oct 20, 2012. 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil at Sea in Real Decline [View article]
    I agree Old Trader, and going forward the gas builds are a foreboding indicator that I am keeping my eye on. That, and I found an announcement last week by vertical integrated majors rds.a and I believe xom about their intentions to pursue more good old fashioned iraqi oil buying at a couple bucks a barrel a bit negative. Seems like they are looking into their crystal ball and indirectly saying it is easier to buy milk now instead of the cow. Not bullish for smaller e&p oil stocks imho. I fear this will be a tough environment for heavy/sours.
    Feb 4, 2010. 01:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tablet computers may be a fad and the iPad (AAPL) may have a dim future, Microsoft's (MSFT) chief of research and strategy tells an Australian audience, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. “I don’t know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not,” Craig Mundie says.  [View news story]
    msft should go into the buggy whip business, dead money and dead ideas personified.
    Mar 31, 2011. 10:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Events in the Middle East and Japan could push oil to $200, warns Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin. Japan will be importing significantly more oil, and Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Bahrain may provoke a response from Iran. "Much worse headlines can easily be imagined," says an RBS analyst.  [View news story]
    I would take this headline with a grain of iodized salt.
    Mar 17, 2011. 10:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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