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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    Ha ha I missed out on the christmas GOOSE ala JPM. I'll believe 1.38 2011 eps when I see it of course that may be in bernanke dollars.
    Oct 8, 2010. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    Just got in and saw my monitor. Entire position liquidated at my limit 12.74 in the after hours. Fortunately, I have been more right than wrong on this position which I managed in Ohh8'& 0hh9'. I still am a big believer in the mega trends rotation cafe standard tailwinds. I just need a little time off, I've got gray hairs from these guys. All in All good work Klausy Baby, enjoy this win, these guys are about as hard to love as the buffalo bills. This thing could pop in pre markets and tomorrow's action, but, I'm just happy to be off the mechanical bull for awhile. I am a looker if I can get back in at a 10-11p/e to 2011's.

    BTW,
    Monsieur Oxen, boyish good looks are not a bad thing, most old turds would die for them. TOG... Illegitimi non carborundum
    Oct 7, 2010. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    I mostly agree, AA stock price is profoundly correlated to LME Alum. pricing. Just something as an untested hypothesis on the side is alcoa's dividend status. It is my belief that alcoa is a cheap short and a nice proxy vehicle for profiting in down markets, based upon it being a serial disappointer at earnings and its low low dividend which means the rent is cheap if you want to hang out here on the short side. I think there could be an outside chance that some kind of dividend increase could raise the rent and flush some weaker handed shorts. Eventually someone at that joint should figure out that instead issuing truckloads of BBB debt in the 7's they could raise the divvy a couple ticks and get it into the %2.5's and a torrent of cheap stock money would flow into the coffers to help cover Raz Azzour. I mostly agree with your entry and exit points, I am looking at these guys making a little over a buck in 2011 and normalized p/e trends over the last decade minus the last couple years puts these guys in a peak/trough 12.5-20p/e imho. Says to me give it a year and if the world doesn't blow up $12.50-20.00 in a year. I wouldn't be dancing a jig to get in at these prices, but, crushing downside is something I just don't see right now. Long AA at a much lower strike.
    Oct 5, 2010. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Dividend Is at Risk - Cramer [View article]
    well scratch that divy thing they just cut it. LOL
    Mar 16, 2009. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Dividend Is at Risk - Cramer [View article]
    A few thoughts from a hobbyist investor. I am long a small position of alcoa. I see the orkla swap and resultant restructuring charge as positive news. I believe in my uneducated mind that it is an insider bullish tell. I believe they could have done this deal anytime and seeing they were going to lay an earnings egg anyway it seemed best to get in front of it now while expectations were low. That was a real rotten egg on paper that most can agree was a good long term decision. I would venture that the best time to fart would be when you are in a room filled with fart gas. I would not be surprised to see some management shake up and proclamations of a new direction before this is over. This could be another ge where the stock price pops if they announce a divy cut. I believe it was a bofa analyst put a $3 price target on these guys last week, citing cash burn issues while they wait out the storm. I would offer that it appears according to the nymex expanded futures that the aluminum curve is flattening ever so lightly. I am personally happy with the weighting of alcoa in my portfolio and respectable cost average, however, If we see a meaningful drop in share price in the near term I am considering selling jan 2011 2.50 puts. I was watching them when aa hit 5 bucks a couple weeks ago. They hit 85 cents which would make a net entry of $1.65 a share not bad for my time horizon which is in excess of 30 years seeing they don't go bkpt. I feel that if these guys hit 3 bucks if you sold the leap put you could probably get a net entry of damn near free or put the money in your pocket and forget alcoa. Earnings aren't until april 7th I would not expect a dividend announcement until after earnings. I bet the analysts on the call will beat the dividend question like a dead horse, like they did on the last call.
    Mar 16, 2009. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa's Bloodbath: Weak Demand, Tight Margins [View article]
    You could make humongous cars out of plastic. LOL I wonder why suspend the stock buybacks, honestly it's never been cheaper and what a way to instill confidence, why not just scale back the buyback? How safe is this dividend? That seems like the 800lb gorilla in the room. According to the balance sheet they are sitting on a lot of finished goods, not good in todays environment. We like to see cash when times are tough, during the call I believe they stated 1:3 debt to cash, I wonder if they are counting goods as cash. Feedstock costs seem to be cheapening that's a plus. Maybe that's the plan, gorge on material while it's cheaper to make it and horde it until things get better. Seems Klaus has inherited a sh*t sandwich. Long AA on valuation. Though, I think a dividend cut will have the faithful running for the exits.
    Oct 13, 2008. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Alcoa [View article]
    that's a great plan, except, I doubt they will drop you a memo as to when they'll go up. Make mine a tall glass of dollar cost averaging.
    Oct 7, 2008. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Alcoa [View article]
    time to get that ugly stick back out and get to work on this one.
    Oct 7, 2008. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Alcoa [View article]
    I agree, hard to tell. I wonder where the bottom of the swamp is? I guess thats the $700 bil question. I wonder if people will cut this thing some slack even if alcoa comes in pretty weak on earnings. These companies are getting slammed as if they didn't earn a penny. Took a small position on the thought that non terrible news might ease things a bit. If they report awful I wouldn't be surprised to see the swamp get a whole lot deeper. Cash flow is more important than ever.
    Oct 7, 2008. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Dead Money Personified [View article]
    Very recently long aa, on valuation grounds.
    Oct 2, 2008. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Dead Money Personified [View article]
    I find your argument compelling, however, a lack of disclosure is disconcerting. Possibly you thought it was implied through the obvious negative connotation of the article.
    I have found this article highly informative. I consider all that is mentioned with much weight. Except the actual price of a share currently is noticeably missing. At its current level I find this share price in the depressed level and a screaming buy in my book. The last time it was this cheap was 2003 when they earned significantly less than what they will earn this year despite all the crisis hullabaloo.
    As far as cars go they will have more plastic in the future than anything. I look for the "drive by" media to again start talking about the growth stories in india and china after our "crisis" is resolved. Billions of consumers will make all ships rise. IMO Plastic is a more proper foe than steel in its core demand sectors.
    Oct 2, 2008. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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