svosavvy

Gartman: Using Base Metals as a Bottom Indicator

thanks for the article. What a novel idea right, a hedge fund that actually hedges again. thanks

I agree with the poster above about silver, I don't hate gold but there seems to be a ton of fear baked into the support pricing and I don't want to be around when the fear subsides.

Where Have All the Buybacks Gone?

Some of these dividend cutters could have split the difference (taken some of the cut money to buyback) GE & AA come to mind. Even a small buyback or the threat of a buyback could have helped put a floor under these shares, after all stock picking is a confidence game. I listened to the nflx call a while back and they bought back some shares during the sh*t storm and then threatened to buy more if their share price went back down, guess what it hasn't gone back down. IMHO that's what makes a 25$ nflx into what it is now. Pity I sold my nflx position at 36.75 lol

Some Laws (Like Supply and Demand) Can't Be Broken

I like your ebay book scenario, I think it rhymes with the real estate market. If we had rigid markets that would represent perfect pricing and no one would make money. Without elasticity robots would do our trading for us and put traders out of work. Companies like coke do well for their goodwill. Coke is basically sugar water, but, if you have a loyal following you can outperform the underlying commodity-sugar or corn syrup. That's why Buffett loves goodwill companies. A commodity will only reward you during price appreciation cycles, the rest of the time it is shooting you in the foot when going down or flatlining during stagnation. A good commodity company can basically produce a quasi-product in the form of a branded commodity, a commodity that can command a premium for it's goodness in spite of competitors. A good commodity company can harness commodity price gains and is worth keeping during the flat times for a reasonable dividend if it can be found. A goodwill commodity company is nice because that good will is earned through processes that beat the competition in price or quality in bringing that commodity to market making it hold up better in the rough times and outperform in the good times. Commodities are for trading, good commodity companies are for investing.

Alcoa's Dividend Is at Risk - Cramer

well scratch that divy thing they just cut it. LOL

Alcoa's Dividend Is at Risk - Cramer

A few thoughts from a hobbyist investor. I am long a small position of alcoa. I see the orkla swap and resultant restructuring charge as positive news. I believe in my uneducated mind that it is an insider bullish tell. I believe they could have done this deal anytime and seeing they were going to lay an earnings egg anyway it seemed best to get in front of it now while expectations were low. That was a real rotten egg on paper that most can agree was a good long term decision. I would venture that the best time to fart would be when you are in a room filled with fart gas. I would not be surprised to see some management shake up and proclamations of a new direction before this is over. This could be another ge where the stock price pops if they announce a divy cut. I believe it was a bofa analyst put a $3 price target on these guys last week, citing cash burn issues while they wait out the storm. I would offer that it appears according to the nymex expanded futures that the aluminum curve is flattening ever so lightly. I am personally happy with the weighting of alcoa in my portfolio and respectable cost average, however, If we see a meaningful drop in share price in the near term I am considering selling jan 2011 2.50 puts. I was watching them when aa hit 5 bucks a couple weeks ago. They hit 85 cents which would make a net entry of $1.65 a share not bad for my time horizon which is in excess of 30 years seeing they don't go bkpt. I feel that if these guys hit 3 bucks if you sold the leap put you could probably get a net entry of damn near free or put the money in your pocket and forget alcoa. Earnings aren't until april 7th I would not expect a dividend announcement until after earnings. I bet the analysts on the call will beat the dividend question like a dead horse, like they did on the last call.

Pension Underfunding: The Next Earnings Shock?

thanks for the article author,

I would personally wonder in my most unprofessional lay mind how the credit freeze is impacting pension underfunding by companies. Just looking at alcoa their pension funding levels according to what I am reading are running at or about 2005 numbers while 2007 saw record funding so it appears as if 2008 has fallen off a cliff. I would wonder if underfunding isn't almost a legal way to rob peter to pay paul as a means of getting by during this credit period when even AAA firms get saddled with onerous terms not to mention BBB firms like alcoa. Yes it will need to be brought in at a later date, but, hopefully during a less hostile credit environment. Seems to me it might be a way to shore up balance sheets in the near term. I just mention alcoa because it is my favorite mutt at the pound these days.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part III

naidle

you short treasuries after the next big selloff because you look for rate deterioration. Basically if you bought a treasury now and we had a big selloff that will most likely increase the par value of that T. Basically you want to short when the yield and par are at their absolute lowest, because some day along with inflation and market appreciation you will also get higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are the bain of people who do "safe haven" buying of bonds. That paltry rate they settle for basically guarantees no one will buy that issue from them at par therefore they sell at a loss or keep it to maturity and get their crappy rate. Buying treasuries now is the equivalent of buying stocks high. It's dangerous to buy fixed debt here unless you're dealing in very short term issues. If you're conservative you might want to wait for the next crap day on the markets and get yourself a few treasury TIPS.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part III

Dr Marc, oil at $147 was the short of the century. I love the short the treasuries idea I think it has play. Wear some brighter colors when you're on tv, starting to look like the bad guy from the second Bill & Ted movie.

Alcoa's Bloodbath: Weak Demand, Tight Margins

You could make humongous cars out of plastic. LOL I wonder why suspend the stock buybacks, honestly it's never been cheaper and what a way to instill confidence, why not just scale back the buyback? How safe is this dividend? That seems like the 800lb gorilla in the room. According to the balance sheet they are sitting on a lot of finished goods, not good in todays environment. We like to see cash when times are tough, during the call I believe they stated 1:3 debt to cash, I wonder if they are counting goods as cash. Feedstock costs seem to be cheapening that's a plus. Maybe that's the plan, gorge on material while it's cheaper to make it and horde it until things get better. Seems Klaus has inherited a sh*t sandwich. Long AA on valuation. Though, I think a dividend cut will have the faithful running for the exits.

Earnings Preview: Alcoa

that's a great plan, except, I doubt they will drop you a memo as to when they'll go up. Make mine a tall glass of dollar cost averaging.

Earnings Preview: Alcoa

time to get that ugly stick back out and get to work on this one.

Earnings Preview: Alcoa

I agree, hard to tell. I wonder where the bottom of the swamp is? I guess thats the $700 bil question. I wonder if people will cut this thing some slack even if alcoa comes in pretty weak on earnings. These companies are getting slammed as if they didn't earn a penny. Took a small position on the thought that non terrible news might ease things a bit. If they report awful I wouldn't be surprised to see the swamp get a whole lot deeper. Cash flow is more important than ever.

Alcoa: Dead Money Personified

Very recently long aa, on valuation grounds.

Alcoa: Dead Money Personified

I find your argument compelling, however, a lack of disclosure is disconcerting. Possibly you thought it was implied through the obvious negative connotation of the article.
I have found this article highly informative. I consider all that is mentioned with much weight. Except the actual price of a share currently is noticeably missing. At its current level I find this share price in the depressed level and a screaming buy in my book. The last time it was this cheap was 2003 when they earned significantly less than what they will earn this year despite all the crisis hullabaloo.
As far as cars go they will have more plastic in the future than anything. I look for the "drive by" media to again start talking about the growth stories in india and china after our "crisis" is resolved. Billions of consumers will make all ships rise. IMO Plastic is a more proper foe than steel in its core demand sectors.