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Canada vs. U.S. - Whose Banks Are Safer?

As a Canadian living in the heart of the real estate and commodity bubble near Calgary, I'm looking at shorting most of our banks. The collapse that's occurred in the US and Europe in the first innings here and housing and commercial real estate are in free fall and our consumers are as over extended as any where in the world. As for commodities, junior miners and drillers are going out of business daily and our tax shortfalls will be massive from the lost revenue, not to mention our quickly growing trade deficit. As far as a technical trade, most canuck banks are sitting on or near their 52 week lows. Anyone considering a long position needs a very big time horizon in my opinion, the trend is lower for 2009.

Predictions for the Coming 'Flation'

I view the inflation/deflation issue as the one that will define 2009 but I'm firmly in the deflation camp for now. Until real estate finds a bottom, both commercial and residential, I don't think the Fed will win this fight.

A Trend-Follower Positions for 2009

True that 2X and 3X ETF's don't match overall performance, but as David says, they are great in trend following markets. When the trend emerges they are the play.

Canadian Real Estate Slows Inexorably- Part III

I'm sorry but this article is completely off base. The thought that despite a massive recession and free fall in commodities and the loone, our housing market will somehow decouple from the rest of the worlds housing bubble bursting is crazy. Where ever you found your numbers for the Calgary area is way off. I've just sold my house at a nice profit because it won't be there in 6 months. Alberta was absolutely a bubble and it has popped. Prices are in a free fall, buyers are drying up and speculative money is dumping houses and condos as fast as they can. Bring up any Calgary or area newspaper listings and the most listed phrase will be "price reduced". To top it off, home builders are now dumping their huge glut of recently built and not selling homes at a 15-20% discount to the rest of the market, killing anyone with a resale. As layoffs mount, this will get worse, bottom drops out in spring/summer 09, 30% drop is very realistic.

Welcome to Parity

I'm glad to finally read someone who can see both sides of this issue. It seems like most "big names" are pounding the table on inflation being the next big bubble but a lot of what I see right now points to deflation. House prices continue to drop, savings rates are climbing for the first time in decades, we are driving less, receiving less credit and only shopping when prices are 50-70% off. The other chart that is worrisome is the free fall in money velocity. Dollars that changed hands constantly aren't moving any more. From banks to buyers to businesses, no one is spending or lending. While inflation will return, I think we are going into a 2-3 year period of deflation based on these signs.

Best Stocks for 2009

On Dec 26 02:02 PM bobbobwhite wrote:

> Note that none of the above comments ,or the article, said a word
> about short or ultrashort ETFs being the best buys for 2009. Is it
> possible that we all do not think the world will end soon?

The best pick for 2009 will be the SRS and SDS after we see a 15% rally in the S&P. The housing collapse is still in the middle innings in the US and early stages around the world, credit is still frozen and we are staring down the barrel of 2 options with the US dollar, deflation or hyper inflation, neither will be very helpful to the average citizen. Obama rally until the spring, short everything the rest of the way. S&P 400-600 a year from now.
>
> It seems to me that most "investors" are still economic Pollyannas,
> all thinking positively about the market in 2009 and its return to
> normal. Sorry, but I think all of you are wrong and that you will
> be painfully punished for your excessive optimism. Wait and see.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

We might see a 5-6 month rally in stocks to S&P 1000 but I don't see any chance of a new bull market by the end of year. Housing is still in the early stages of crashing around the world, unemployment and recession are just beginning to ramp and earnings will be in free fall. We are still firmly in a bear market and we don't base until S&P 400-600 range.

Ten Economic Predictions for 2009

I'm in your camp on most of these, but I just don't see hyper inflation when unemployment is rampant and real estate is falling. Won't the Fed's printing press simply work to at best counter act these declines and worst case scenario fail to halt deflation? Also will other central banks simply let the dollar fall and not take action to devalue their currency if they hold a serious amount of US debt?

More On Alternative Methods For Measuring Housing

I live just outside of Calgary and we are looking at well over 10% drops in recent months. There is a ton of unsold inventory and very few buyers. If oil doesn't rebound to 60-75$ range this market is prime for a free fall.

The "DOPE-DUD" Phase For Canadian Banks?

Globe and Mail has had several interesting articles about the coming version of sub prime, the 40 year mortgage that will explode in 09. A scary but worthwhile read for all canucks.

Ultrashort Real Estate Drop Demonstrates Unlimited Faith in a Recovery

At the end of this current rally, (S&P 1000?) this will be a screaming buy along with SDS, SMN ect... but at this pace it might meet the URE at the $15.00 mark.

Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages (12/10/08)

I think that the level of the bounce(20%+) is what qualifies it as a statistical bull market, dead cat bounce or not.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

The view has been negative because the charts have been negative, David helped alot of traders to see the coming drop a year ago with unbiased and easy to read work, when the market changes from bull to bear, I'm sure the sentiment will follow but you rarely win trading with hope over charts. Keep up the good work.

Ben Stein Watch: November 30, 2008

Stein needs to be concerned about his portfolio, he's been pounding the table to buy financials for 18 months.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, I like the minimized amount of personal opinion, all successful traders need to make their own decisions based on the info available, not what 99% of the talking heads try to force down our throats. Keep up the good work