pitaking

Predictions for the Coming 'Flation'

I view the inflation/deflation issue as the one that will define 2009 but I'm firmly in the deflation camp for now. Until real estate finds a bottom, both commercial and residential, I don't think the Fed will win this fight.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

We might see a 5-6 month rally in stocks to S&P 1000 but I don't see any chance of a new bull market by the end of year. Housing is still in the early stages of crashing around the world, unemployment and recession are just beginning to ramp and earnings will be in free fall. We are still firmly in a bear market and we don't base until S&P 400-600 range.

Inflation vs. Strategic Vision

The commodity trade will come back, just not in the near future. Once the liquidity that the fed is injecting has some time to boost bank balance sheets, we will see a serious spike in inflation and commodities along with it but not until 09. SWRichmond, Obama's election will be the start to a year end rally, regardless of what his policies might be, Mccain means DOW 6,000.
Disclosure DZZ, EEV

Searching for Support Levels

For all the nay sayers on T.A, it has led the way since January and the charts tell me that we are going lower. Break down the ag names, oil, emerging markets ect... Today is a great day to reload on those shorts ahead of hedge fund redemptions tommarow.

An Investor's Guide to Bear Markets

Well done. Todays action makes me think that the next down leg is coming soon, the real leaders (commodities) have been taken out and the only strength on my radar today was XLF, XHB and RTH, all of which I wouldn't hold out to pull the market to new highs. The S+P can't break the 1295-1298 area and a fall through 1265 could mean an elavator drop to 1200.

Risk Management in Trending Markets

Great work!

Short Week Was Plenty Painful

The only way to play this is on the downside, sds, dxd, qid, twm ect....despite cnbc calling a bottom every single day the dow is going to 10,000 and the s+p 1220 in the very near future. If Alcoa shows a huge jump in input costs that hurts earnings, next week will be a fast and sharp drop.