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  • Report Says IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce [View article]
    "Of course, they could be lying, or not."

    What odds would you like? I'll send you a contract and we can bet on whether or not they're lying :)
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beginning Of The Next Growth Phase For Microsoft [View article]
    You can read the old annual reports if you're interested in the facts on the Server & Tools business. Whether or not you accept the fact that it's a bigger contributor to MSFT's profitability than the Windows division is up to you (with segment income for S&T going from $3.8B to $8.1B - on $20B+ in revenues - in the five years to FY13).

    The same can be said for Office, which continues to report stronger numbers year after year despite continued claims that it is facing impending doom. Go look at the company's "Commercial Licensing" growth figures when you have some time to see it all together.

    Revenues in FY14 were $42B, up 6.3% (CAGR) from two years earlier.

    "That the stock's price has held up since I turned negative on the company's long term prospects has made it possible for investors to hold longer than I would have anticipated - but again I am not a market timer."

    Held up?! You mean up 80%?

    Boy that's an understatement...
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report Says IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce [View article]
    Well you were right on one thing Rupert - they did respond to a media inquiry (from IBM's director of corporate communications Doug Shelton):

    "This rumor is ridiculous, and off by a factor of more than 10. If anyone had checked information readily available from our public earnings statements, or had simply asked us, they would know this... A blogger writing under an assumed name did neither and passed off irresponsible speculation as fact, not for the first time."
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Mattel Analyst Report [View article]
    The problems here are significant, and they've been building for years; Barbie and Fisher Price have been moving in the wrong direction for a long time.

    Today's announcement is as clear a sign as any that MAT needs to make some serious changes; buying MEGA will not solve their problems...
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report Says IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce [View article]
    "I think you're just tying to pick a fight here. I'm well aware of the fact that IBM may not respond and the fact that Cringely's ideas may just be the ramblings of a mad-man. But thanks for you're insight and remarkably ill-thought out comments."

    Just trying to understand the arguments behind your article. For readers to question the credibility of the cited source doesn't seem like a stretch to me; unfortunately, you wouldn't respond on that point.

    Your response to my next question didn't stand up to simple analysis (you can't find another case where they've responded to similar speculation), which is why you're backing away from this point as well.

    Rather than picking a fight, I've asked two pretty simple questions. I was honestly interested in whether Mr. Cringely is worth listening to...

    Final point and then I'll drop off - in percentage terms, how likely do you believe it is that IBM will fire 110,000 people in the next 4-5 weeks? 25%, 50%, 95%?

    Thanks Rupert
    Jan 26, 2015. 08:15 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report Says IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce [View article]
    "This news has been out for a few days though, IBM would have said ASAP if it was a lie."

    When you respond it sets a precedence - thus why companies do not respond to M&A rumors and others. Said differently, I think that's a pretty weak argument to base your article on.

    Let's ask another question: with the countless articles being written about IBM, can you cite one time in the past few years when they've come out and said "that's a lie" to an article - what you're suggesting they would do here if this wasn't accurate? I can't remember them ever doing that...
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:37 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report Says IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce [View article]
    "According to several sources (here, here and here) the company is preparing to axe a staggering 111,800 employees in one week."

    All three of the sources cited are referring to the same Cringely article. You sure weren't kidding that the "majority" refer to the same article (100%). That doesn't mean it's incorrect - but at least be honest about it.

    Your title sure if definitive ("IBM Set To Cut 26% Of Workforce"). Maybe you should share with others why you value Cringely's opinion so highly - how have his past scoops / predictions (IBM & otherwise) been? What's his track record?
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:36 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beginning Of The Next Growth Phase For Microsoft [View article]
    Haha, oh... in that case, I should probably leave it for him to respond :)
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beginning Of The Next Growth Phase For Microsoft [View article]
    "At least he's consistent."

    Fair enough - but he's been calling for an outcome for some time that seems increasingly unlikely based on recent results, estimates for industry demand, etc (this goes back further than the cited article); we'll see in five years whether it really was "too late" for Microsoft...
    Jan 25, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beginning Of The Next Growth Phase For Microsoft [View article]
    "Tough competition in all markets, and its "core" PC business is declining and there seems to be no sign of a good replacement profitable revenue stream."

    At what rate is the PC business declining? Do your estimates differ from Gartner / IDC data? And when you say "no replacement", what about businesses like (the former) Server & Tools - a business that's larger than the Windows business and had grown substantially in the prior 5-10 years. You're right that there's tough competition - and based on recently reported results, it appears that there are few competitors tougher than Microsoft (I'll leave it to you to put the numbers together).

    I remember a few years back when you were really laying it on thick to MSFT, asking questions like "Is It Too Late for the Company?"

    Here's one quote: "The future is looking very difficult for Microsoft – and for your investment if you own Microsoft’s stock."

    That's from January 2013; the stock is up ~80% in the two years since then...
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Azure Has A Great Future Ahead [View article]
    Great article Brian - thanks!

    Please keep them coming in the future; want to know as much about Azure / AWS as possible, and this one helped tremendously.
    Jan 22, 2015. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Ship That Is Taking On Water [View article]
    Josh - any chance you can spend a bit longer doing actual research before you pump out new articles? Here's a few examples from this piece:

    "Revenue was down an eye-popping 13% as sales were crushed by weak demand."

    Nope; try reading the press release (see divestitures and currencies)...

    "Even the company's services backlog took a beating, losing $15 billion during the quarter."

    Care to discuss the reason why? See the above comment...

    "As revenue continues to fall so will FCF unless R&D, the dividend or something else is cut."

    Dividend payments don't affect the FCF calculation...
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:18 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM beats by $0.40, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Haha same here!
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM beats by $0.40, misses on revenue [View news story]
    "That's why the EPS beat..."

    Well they only bought $100 million in Q4 (meaning the other $13.6 billion spent in 2014 was already public info) - so if that's the case you really have to question the math skills of the people making the EPS estimates....
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: 31 Consecutive EPS Increases & Counting [View article]
    "Year after year after year"?

    As of late, yes: they've reported adjusted figures for 2014 ($5.97 vs $5.70), 2013 ($5.52 vs $4.81), 2012 ($5.10 vs $3.86), 2011 ($5.00 vs $3.89), etc...

    More often than not, it has been for litigation; now we're seeing Synthes acquisition costs as well. My simple point is that investors should not be blind to what's being backed out.
    Jan 20, 2015. 02:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment