Transcripts&10-K's

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  • Whole Foods higher after topping expectations  [View news story]
    Valuation - look up the term
    Feb 11, 2016. 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods higher after topping expectations  [View news story]
    " Once again - identify, buy and hold the great companies for an investment lifetime."

    Once again, valuation matters, assuming you care about returns.

    "If you lose over ten years that is a YOU problem."

    That comment doesn't make any sense lol.

    If you owned WFM over the last decade, you've lost big time relative to a low hurdle (treasuries). That's the price you pay for absurd valuations.
    Feb 10, 2016. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods higher after topping expectations  [View news story]
    "Buy and hold the great companies."

    With the condition that you pay reasonable prices relative to the "greatness" of said company - the one part you always miss Gary.

    Whole Foods is an example: despite great results over time, the stock is lower than it was a decade ago. An investment in treasuries ten years ago has killed a comparable sized purchase of WFM in early 2006.

    And that's for a company that is now reporting negative comps and still trades at ~20x earnings - hardly the cheapest stock in the world. By the way, isn't Amazon going to destroy "brick and mortar" retailers like WFM?
    Feb 10, 2016. 06:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp's earnings arrive early; Q4 results beat, sales guidance healthy, CFO leaving (updated)  [View news story]
    "Long but getting nervous, I keep expecting expense growth to dip below revenue growth but it's still showing no signs of doing so."

    2015 was definitely a step in the wrong direction, but the prior three years showed meaningful improvements in margins. Even with the step back, the numbers in 2015 are much better than three years earlier (sales & marketing down nearly ten points as a percentage of sales, G&A down eight points as a percentage of sales, etc).

    Just some thoughts.
    Feb 8, 2016. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips' projected loss puts fat dividend at risk  [View news story]
    Management's decision making as it relates to the dividend has revealed an odd set of priorities. Rationale capital allocation (like ET180 describes) has fallen to the wayside in hopes of saving the dividend at all costs.

    The small dividend increase a few quarters back - at a time when COP was slashing CapEx - was an early sign there are some issues here...
    Feb 3, 2016. 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FANG trade rides again: AMZN, GOOG, NFLX rise following Facebook's earnings  [View news story]
    "Speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest."
    Jan 28, 2016. 09:03 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures flat despite tumble in China  [View news story]
    But what about May!?!
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Q4 EPS up 29%, revenues down 2%  [View news story]
    "I am more interested in revenues. EPS can change based on stock buyback. Seems more like financial engineering."

    You can increase revenues by going out and buying another company - a decision that tells you nothing about the improvements in the underlying / legacy business and can destroy shareholder capital (like repurchases).

    The question is whether or not capital allocation decisions (repurchases or M&A) are an intelligent uses of shareholder funds - no matter what form.
    Jan 26, 2016. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Q4 EPS up 29%, revenues down 2%  [View news story]
    Lake,

    Agreed. Importantly, it gives you a way to assess how truthful management is when presenting "normalized" results. When you see a red flag, it's unlikely to be the only one you'll find upon closer inspection.
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures flat despite tumble in China  [View news story]
    Don't worry, Mr. Market will probably get the jitters as the day goes on :)
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:36 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Q4 EPS up 29%, revenues down 2%  [View news story]
    "Special items" excluded in 2015: $900 million (after-tax)

    "Special items" excluded in 2014: $800 million (after-tax)

    "Special items" excluded in 2014: $2 billion (after-tax)

    "Special items" excluded in 2014: $3.5 billion (after-tax)

    At some point, these "non-GAAP" charges that JNJ takes year after year after year are going to start adding up to some real money...
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp Gets A 4.5 Star Rating  [View article]
    "Current revenue challenges..."

    Yelp reported 40% revenue growth in its most recent quarter; we're talking about the same company, right?
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM issues soft 2016 EPS guidance; shares -4.1%  [View news story]
    ls1gto,

    You can analyze the facts as they are. I'll leave it to you to determine whether or not acquisitions must boost revenues / earnings IMMEDIATELY to make sense, share repurchases are smart or dumb based on where the stock trades in the coming days / weeks, etc. I bet we have quite different ways of viewing these events, and that's the beauty of markets - you can sell every share you own and I can keep mine (or maybe even buy yours).

    What isn't open to debate are the facts; when you say "all they've been doing is wasting money on share buybacks", you are dead wrong. At least get the facts right - argue they waste money on M&A and R&D too :)
    Jan 19, 2016. 09:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM issues soft 2016 EPS guidance; shares -4.1%  [View news story]
    "Meanwhile all management has been doing is wasting money on share buy backs which keep getting cheaper and cheaper and cutting everything they can think of."

    And then there are facts:

    IBM spent $3.35 billion in 2015 buying 14 small companies that will now have access to enterprise customers globally; that's a roughly five-fold increase for M&A spend in 2014.

    RD&E expense increased by 50 basis points as a percentage of sales in 2015, and exceeded $5 billion. Capital expenditures were roughly flat, which means they also increased (slightly) as a percentage of sales.

    Repurchases, on the other hand, were down two-thirds from 2014. In addition, core debt relative to equity (and FCF) declined for the year.

    You might want to start with the facts before you start asking yourself why you should (or shouldn't) own IBM - or any other company...
    Jan 19, 2016. 07:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Chinese unit gets license to provide ocean freight services  [View news story]
    1999: $100
    Today's open: $575

    So an 11.5% CAGR over sixteen years
    Jan 15, 2016. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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