Seeking Alpha

Transcripts&10-K's

Transcripts&10-K's
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Transcripts&10-K's' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Staples Isn't All That Bad [View article]
    "Staples was in a pretty good position, but if the buy out happens, in my opinion, that will be the straw that broke the camels back."

    Beyond debt, what impact will that have on the business - primary Commercial / Delivery? This is before considering the impact on rationalizing the real estate; I think you're missing the long term rationale for the deal.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DuPont: A Short Seller's Dream [View article]
    "My thesis is that DD will do well if Peltz can take control. He is showing progress in doing that."

    They wanted four board seats; now they've settled on asking for two - and were still rejected by management. It looks like a proxy fight will be needed - and even then, they will have a handful of 10+ board seats at best. That's what you call progress towards taking control?

    "Shorted over $76 bought to close just over $80."

    So the stock went up ~7% over your holding period while the S&P was flat (I'm guessing Feb 12th - March 12th); again, not a great outcome here. I'm not a trader so I don't consider short term volatility like this to be much more than noise; on the other hand, you sound like a short term trader from your bio (correct me if I'm wrong), so you live and die by this.

    "I don't disclose potential trading plans..."

    Just asking for your logic - and I guess you gave it: you think Peltz is making progress. I think your reasoning is lacking, but that's what makes markets. Best of luck Dallas!
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DuPont: A Short Seller's Dream [View article]
    Interesting comment - you lost money but the thesis has played out "beautifully"; here's my only two questions: (1) why didn't you keep your short position if your thesis is playing out; and (2) why don't you open it again now with it near where you first started shorting it before (at best)?

    To be clear, I don't think a short term move higher meant you were wrong - just like I don't think a short term move lower (at least for now) doesn't mean you're right. So far, your timing - what you've disclosed to readers - has been dead wrong (shorted at ~$70 or lower, covered in the high $70's; correct me if that's not accurate).

    Maybe you'll reopen your short and make a boat load of money...
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DuPont: A Short Seller's Dream [View article]
    Dallas doesn't have anything to gloat about: as he noted on the 12th, he closed his short near $80 per share and lost money on DD; the recent move back towards $70 didn't do anything for him...
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: The Fork In The Road [View article]
    "Also, according to inside sources, the recent reporting of Stockton's being retained by Mattel as a consultant is false. It is technically accounting for his severance."

    Here's what the company filed with the SEC:

    "On March 10, 2015, Mattel, Inc. (the “Company”) and Bryan G. Stockton, former Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, entered into a consulting agreement (“Agreement”) with the Company for a term of twelve months, effective as of March 1, 2015 (the “Consulting Period”). Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, Mr. Stockton will provide transition and advisory services to the Company, drawing from his deep institutional knowledge of the Company and experience."
    Mar 28, 2015. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: The Fork In The Road [View article]
    Working on it, yes; showing result, not so much yet

    Here's to hoping they can in the near future!
    Mar 28, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Is Not Over For Mattel [View article]
    Second biggest, right?

    http://ti.me/1Bvn2hm
    Mar 28, 2015. 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Is Not Over For Mattel [View article]
    "But when they fix these issues, do you still expect to be able to buy them for $23/share?"

    If they do, no I wouldn't; the stock will be a big winner in that scenario. You're much more confident that they can turn around brands that have struggled for many, many years than I am though...
    Mar 28, 2015. 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: The Fork In The Road [View article]
    "The company does not need new management, it does not need "exciting" new brands. All it has to do is wait, and the problem will work itself out."

    They don't? Isn't why they went out and bought HIT Entertainment and MEGA, and (to their credit) developed Monster High? That's exactly what they need as Barbie and Fisher-Price continue to struggle - new growth.
    Mar 28, 2015. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Is Not Over For Mattel [View article]
    "I'll give up when people stop having kids. I'm pretty sure there will be no market for Fisher-Price once that happens."

    2014 sales for Fisher-Price were $1.843 billion - more than 20% lower than back in 2008, and ~25% lower than in 2007.

    As far as I know people haven't stopped having kids - yet a quarter of Fisher-Price's global business has evaporated over the last few years. We see a similar (in fact worse) trend for Barbie.

    I'm not sure what's going on ("Frozen" only explains Barbie in the past few years, not the poor results over the past ~15 years), but this clearly points to company specific issues that have not yet been resolved...
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: The Fork In The Road [View article]
    My end was in mid-2014: years of failed promises on turning around Fisher-Price, continued declines at Barbie, questionable acquisitions, and some serious concerns on inventory build. Wish I would've figured this all out $10 higher - but glad I haven't been around for the next $10+ lower...
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: The Fork In The Road [View article]
    Another nice article Quick Draw; two notes:

    (1) The Learning Company is a fantastic example of value destruction; it's hard to see how they could've done much better...

    (2) Reading through the list of Hasbro properties reminded me of an old favorite, Gator Golf, which I'm currently placing in my shopping cart; much appreciated :)
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Rising Rates? Not A Good Combination [View article]
    Rhianni32 - Exactly.

    I know the author doesn't respond to comments on his articles (or address his mistakes), but it's worth setting things straight; as I've noted on other IBM articles:

    "Investors must adjust for the debt from Global Financing. As of the most recent 10-Q, IBM had $9.5B in cash, $10.6B in notes / AR, $17.4B in short term financing receivables, and $11B in long term financing receivables - a total of ~$48 billion; compare this to $12.8B in short term debt, $6B in payables, and $33B in long term debt - in total, $52 billion.

    Using these figures, that's a net debt position of a few billion dollars. If you make an adjustment for the underfunded pension, you're still at a net debt position that's less than 2x free cash flow.

    IBM's financial position is quite solid; the real problem is that most people don't make adjustments for the impact of GF on the leverage ratios."
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:20 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Rising Rates? Not A Good Combination [View article]
    Order of events:

    (1) Open article

    (2) Hit "Control + F" and search for "Global Financing" - no hits

    (3) Try again for "Receivables" - no hits

    (4) One last try for "Client Loans" - sadly, no hits

    (4) Sigh

    (5) Accept the fact that many authors don't research / read 10-K's for the companies they write about...
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:09 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel: Trouble In Toyland [View article]
    Part of their plan has been to spend hundreds of millions on M&A, with one result being a second rate company competing head to head with Lego (they have ~10% market share globally, with Lego holding the majority of the remainder).

    Time will tell, but count me in as skeptical...
    Mar 20, 2015. 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
848 Comments
1,653 Likes