Belviq's Sales Will Disappoint: Demographics Matter [View article]
"I am therefore expecting the initial sales of Belviq to come in around the 10k mark, or about $2.5 M in revenue".
Short Selling is the opposite of Going Long. Hot water is the opposite of Cold Water.
Take your pick. We all can find points to make a case for whatever position fits our fancy.
Obviously, science is on the side of robust sales and the clinical trials have likely won the hearts and minds of the professionals that will be the conduits to the masses that so desperately need this "miracle drug".
Blockbuster status will not be difficult to achieve albeit not overnight, scripts will surprise "the street" and blow away the extremely low bar that has been set with Vivus.
ARNA's marketing partner, Esai will likely have some savvy tricks up its sleeve as rollout commences, key spokes people, alliances etc.
Spencer: Another enlightening and well grounded article. Under this scenario readers might assume three months out to ascertain such results, say Sept 7, 2013.
However might be helpful if you explained the channel checks that are performed and why ARNA might see movements in its stock price earlier than having to wait a full three months for your targets as some readers might assume.
Arena Dips Below $8 - Uncertainty Is Key [View article]
It really is amazing what is going on with this stock. How complicated can it be for the DEA to finalize its classification, it's not rocket science, give it something, the panel at the FDA recommended a Schedule 4, Give it a 3 if you must but get a move on one way or another. This clearly does not reflect positively on the competence level of our Federal Government and our tax dollars at work.
Actually it's quite embarassing that this can be such a quagmire when ARNA had years and years of clinical trials plus external data giving reasonable guidance for the Bureaucrats, now it's just the $750 hammer at work.
Obesity Sector Update And Compelling Short Opportunity [View article]
WHY in the world are all you ARNA longs being sucked in by this Looney Tunes. Your wasting your time arguing with this "sewer rat".
Isn't it obvious which side of the fence this guy is on? Of course it is so save your energy, Steven could care less about the truth, and just remember this time tested truth:
"Never argue with a fool - they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience".
Report Raising Vivus Qsymia Patent Infringement Concerns Was Not Competent [View article]
There is plenty of room in the obesity market for competing products as one drug does not fit all. Honestly, I do hope the things citron says about vvus are not true however given some other pieces of the puzzle especially the mass exodus of insiders in vvus is and tends to support there are issues that us commoners do not have the luxury of being privy to.
Report Raising Vivus Qsymia Patent Infringement Concerns Was Not Competent [View article]
The fact that it took you so long to explain and counter what was written against Vivus not to mention the mood long before this was written with the insiders parting of their shares like teenagers trying to get rid of Acne, not to mention all the what ifs regarding what a court might do regarding the patent issue is to likely only order Vivus to pay a reasonable royalty is? Really......
Bottom line is, there is plenty of room for multiple drugs in this huge obesity market, however something doesn't add up with Vivus, it doesn't pass the smell test, insiders selling, citron article regarding patent issues, and all the issues/anchors attached to this drug.
It works, we know that as doctors have been prescribing it for years off label at a fraction of the cost, why not just keep doing that without having to jump through hoops, mail order pharmacies, extra doctors visits and opening themselves up to further malpractice litigation by the pool of sharks that are very very hungry.
My Very Conservative Revenue Model For Vivus [View article]
I have nothing against VVUS, because a company will stand on it's own merits base on it's people and products.
Belviq is a Novel drug, it is a safe drug. The question really comes down to what will the Doctors prescribe?
They have been prescribing the VVUS drug off label for over 10 years, it has been VERY successful, absolutely.
Now that Phentermine and Topiramate are available in Generics, WHY pay 3-4 times more, go thru all the RED tape, screw around with extra medical costs?
Plus at the end of the day, for those that know the details of VVUS, the insiders that have been selling like sieves and the issues that citronresearch.com has brought up whether totally accurate or only partially accurate, has definitely indicated this is a potential SCAM..... End of Story....
My Very Conservative Revenue Model For Vivus [View article]
These projections may be fun to calculate for VVUS yuppies, but it all is likely to be a mute point until ownership issues are resolved.
1.) Freedom-to-Operate may be Severely Compromised
2.) VVUS: We may be unable to in-license intellectual property rights or technology necessary to develop and commercialize our investigational drug candidates.
3.) Potential Problems in Vivus's product protection based on the Najarian patent.
4.) Prior art is not pretty for Vivus:
5.) Patent Ownership Uncertainties
6.) Competitive Landscape: Generic Drug Competition
In its most recent 10-K, Vivus's disclosure speaks for itself:
"Our investigational drug candidate, Qsymia, is a combination of drugs approved individually by the FDA that are commercially available and marketed by other companies. As a result, our drug may be the subject to substitution with individual drugs contained in the Qsymia formulation and immediate competition. "
Vivus's Corporate History: Failure to Execute
Vivus is not just any startup biopharma company. It has been operating for over 20 years with the same CEO, Leland Wilson. Vivus began its life as a publicly traded company pursuing a treatment for erectile dysfunction for males. In the mid-1990's, iIt actually produced and brought to market a treatment involving inserting a suppository into the male urethra. Despite approval by the FDA and in Europe, a firestorm of hype, an initial sales bubble, and a brief stock run to over $1 billion valuation, the product failed to gain market share and was sold in 2010 to a 3rd party for just $23.5 million.
While Vivus's stock has languished in junk stock (sub $5) land for most of the last 20 years, the company has pursued a variety of highly promoted "stories", mostly concerning various attempts to introduce products to treat so-called "feminine sexual dysfunction", including testosterone spray and vasodilators.
Despite the company's hype-marked history, the following table is relevant to investors because Vivus's 20 year history illustrates one of the most consistent records of failure in the history of publicly traded companies in America.
A bevy of Street analysts weigh in on Vivus' (VVUS +11%): Cowen says Qsymia has "considerably better" efficacy over Arena's (ARNA -7.5%) Belviq. Brean Murray says the approval came clean, without any harsh restrictions. Jefferies - after initially being negative on the stock - calls the FDA decision a "major win" for the company and upgrades the shares to Underperform. Wells Fargo is a bit more cautious, saying that despite the big win, the company still faces reimbursement challenges, a restrictive distribution network, and patient compliance. [View news story]
I have read that Phentermine can only be taken for 12 weeks. The problem then would be to stop taking Q and watch as the weight gets put back on over time.
This seems very counterproductive. Phentermine is also a stimulant no different than Adderall and Ritalin and each state has its own reporting requirements for scheduled drugs, but the real kicker is how long of a holiday is required after the 12 weeks is reached, how is it determined, and the biggest question of all is Q. a drug users can take for a lifetime or is it a shorter term jump starter to get the process going?
Belviq's Sales Will Disappoint: Demographics Matter [View article]
What do you mean" Long after my 45 days are up?
Belviq's Sales Will Disappoint: Demographics Matter [View article]
Short Selling is the opposite of Going Long. Hot water is the opposite of Cold Water.
Take your pick. We all can find points to make a case for whatever position fits our fancy.
Obviously, science is on the side of robust sales and the clinical trials have likely won the hearts and minds of the professionals that will be the conduits to the masses that so desperately need this "miracle drug".
Blockbuster status will not be difficult to achieve albeit not overnight, scripts will surprise "the street" and blow away the extremely low bar that has been set with Vivus.
ARNA's marketing partner, Esai will likely have some savvy tricks up its sleeve as rollout commences, key spokes people, alliances etc.
Sit back and hold on to your seats.
C. Brown
Minnesota
For Arena, Sales Is Key [View article]
However might be helpful if you explained the channel checks that are performed and why ARNA might see movements in its stock price earlier than having to wait a full three months for your targets as some readers might assume.
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA): Q1 EPS loss of $0.09 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $2.4M (-9% Y/Y). (PR). Shares -11.7% AH. [View news story]
Arena Dips Below $8 - Uncertainty Is Key [View article]
Actually it's quite embarassing that this can be such a quagmire when ARNA had years and years of clinical trials plus external data giving reasonable guidance for the Bureaucrats, now it's just the $750 hammer at work.
C. Brown
Minnesota
Obesity Sector Update And Compelling Short Opportunity [View article]
C. Brown
Minnesota
Obesity Sector Update And Compelling Short Opportunity [View article]
C. Brown
Minnesota
Obesity Sector Update And Compelling Short Opportunity [View article]
Isn't it obvious which side of the fence this guy is on? Of course it is so save your energy, Steven could care less about the truth, and just remember this time tested truth:
"Never argue with a fool - they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience".
C. Brown
Minnesota
Earnings Preview: Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
Report Raising Vivus Qsymia Patent Infringement Concerns Was Not Competent [View article]
Report Raising Vivus Qsymia Patent Infringement Concerns Was Not Competent [View article]
Bottom line is, there is plenty of room for multiple drugs in this huge obesity market, however something doesn't add up with Vivus, it doesn't pass the smell test, insiders selling, citron article regarding patent issues, and all the issues/anchors attached to this drug.
It works, we know that as doctors have been prescribing it for years off label at a fraction of the cost, why not just keep doing that without having to jump through hoops, mail order pharmacies, extra doctors visits and opening themselves up to further malpractice litigation by the pool of sharks that are very very hungry.
C. Brown
Minnesota
My Very Conservative Revenue Model For Vivus [View article]
Belviq is a Novel drug, it is a safe drug. The question really comes down to what will the Doctors prescribe?
They have been prescribing the VVUS drug off label for over 10 years, it has been VERY successful, absolutely.
Now that Phentermine and Topiramate are available in Generics, WHY pay 3-4 times more, go thru all the RED tape, screw around with extra medical costs?
Plus at the end of the day, for those that know the details of VVUS, the insiders that have been selling like sieves and the issues that citronresearch.com has brought up whether totally accurate or only partially accurate, has definitely indicated this is a potential SCAM..... End of Story....
My Very Conservative Revenue Model For Vivus [View article]
1.) Freedom-to-Operate may be Severely Compromised
2.) VVUS: We may be unable to in-license intellectual property rights or technology necessary to develop and commercialize our investigational drug candidates.
3.) Potential Problems in Vivus's product protection based on the Najarian patent.
4.) Prior art is not pretty for Vivus:
5.) Patent Ownership Uncertainties
6.) Competitive Landscape: Generic Drug Competition
In its most recent 10-K, Vivus's disclosure speaks for itself:
"Our investigational drug candidate, Qsymia, is a combination of drugs approved individually by the FDA that are commercially available and marketed by other companies. As a result, our drug may be the subject to substitution with individual drugs contained in the Qsymia formulation and immediate competition. "
Vivus's Corporate History: Failure to Execute
Vivus is not just any startup biopharma company. It has been operating for over 20 years with the same CEO, Leland Wilson. Vivus began its life as a publicly traded company pursuing a treatment for erectile dysfunction for males. In the mid-1990's, iIt actually produced and brought to market a treatment involving inserting a suppository into the male urethra. Despite approval by the FDA and in Europe, a firestorm of hype, an initial sales bubble, and a brief stock run to over $1 billion valuation, the product failed to gain market share and was sold in 2010 to a 3rd party for just $23.5 million.
While Vivus's stock has languished in junk stock (sub $5) land for most of the last 20 years, the company has pursued a variety of highly promoted "stories", mostly concerning various attempts to introduce products to treat so-called "feminine sexual dysfunction", including testosterone spray and vasodilators.
Despite the company's hype-marked history, the following table is relevant to investors because Vivus's 20 year history illustrates one of the most consistent records of failure in the history of publicly traded companies in America.
Click to review VVUS 20 years cumulative results
A bevy of Street analysts weigh in on Vivus' (VVUS +11%): Cowen says Qsymia has "considerably better" efficacy over Arena's (ARNA -7.5%) Belviq. Brean Murray says the approval came clean, without any harsh restrictions. Jefferies - after initially being negative on the stock - calls the FDA decision a "major win" for the company and upgrades the shares to Underperform. Wells Fargo is a bit more cautious, saying that despite the big win, the company still faces reimbursement challenges, a restrictive distribution network, and patient compliance. [View news story]
This seems very counterproductive. Phentermine is also a stimulant no different than Adderall and Ritalin and each state has its own reporting requirements for scheduled drugs, but the real kicker is how long of a holiday is required after the 12 weeks is reached, how is it determined, and the biggest question of all is Q. a drug users can take for a lifetime or is it a shorter term jump starter to get the process going?
The Time To Buy Arena Pharmaceuticals Is Now [View article]