NotVerySmart2's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/170930/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/105732-new-sirius-channel-line-ups-cause-stir?source=feed#comment-306782 306782
Gald to hear SIRI has survived earnings. Got absolutley slaughtered in AAPL, and have since taken a neutral to bear stance with a long straddle. I just don't know what to say about this market. Valuations, actual earnings, and reality seem to escape it. I sincerely hope that our current administrastion and G20 do something or I fear we may see Dow 6k-7k within the next few months. I strongly suggest nutral positions (hedge longs) as anything with a beta is going decline.

Good Luck,

NVS]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:29:42 -0500
Gald to hear SIRI has survived earnings. Got absolutley slaughtered in AAPL, and have since taken a neutral to bear stance with a long straddle. I just don't know what to say about this market. Valuations, actual earnings, and reality seem to escape it. I sincerely hope that our current administrastion and G20 do something or I fear we may see Dow 6k-7k within the next few months. I strongly suggest nutral positions (hedge longs) as anything with a beta is going decline.

Good Luck,

NVS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103514-big-money-managers-are-cautiously-bullish-barron-s?source=feed#comment-296693 296693

For those TA’s interested, please review your charts. What do you think?


]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:00:14 -0500

For those TA’s interested, please review your charts. What do you think?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-296683 296683
NVS


On Nov 02 06:55 PM killerkaul wrote:

> NVS...................... ! !]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 19:50:14 -0500
NVS


On Nov 02 06:55 PM killerkaul wrote:

> NVS...................... ! !]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-296650 296650

NVS]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 19:03:54 -0500

NVS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-296351 296351

NVS


]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 11:44:45 -0500

NVS


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103480-iphone-a-platform-for-the-masses?source=feed#comment-296344 296344

NVS


A Technical Analysis of Apple

Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Monday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS






]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 11:39:53 -0500

NVS


A Technical Analysis of Apple

Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Monday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-295824 295824
BTW your commentary on SIRI is superb!

Love to ya,

NVS]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 14:30:08 -0400
BTW your commentary on SIRI is superb!

Love to ya,

NVS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-295822 295822
Glad to hear your making out. Yes last week was AWESOME! Cleaned up un calls for AAPL and POT. I'm dumping the POT calls as I don't trust the underlying commodity prices, but the Apple thing is a once a year opportunity to cash in big. I doubled calls on the drift to $105 Monday moning, sold some @ $110 (15% profit on calls), then bought in again at $107. I suggest 100 -120 calls between Dec. and Jan. if you like options. Take care buddy, I may bring some CAP into SIRI if they make earnings happen. Let us pray... ;-)

I'll keep an eye on it,

NVS]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 14:27:57 -0400
Glad to hear your making out. Yes last week was AWESOME! Cleaned up un calls for AAPL and POT. I'm dumping the POT calls as I don't trust the underlying commodity prices, but the Apple thing is a once a year opportunity to cash in big. I doubled calls on the drift to $105 Monday moning, sold some @ $110 (15% profit on calls), then bought in again at $107. I suggest 100 -120 calls between Dec. and Jan. if you like options. Take care buddy, I may bring some CAP into SIRI if they make earnings happen. Let us pray... ;-)

I'll keep an eye on it,

NVS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-295792 295792
You're welcome buddy. I really mean the advice honestly. I have high six figures in myself, so I put my money where my mouth is. If you can get in under $105 consider yourself very lucky $106 - $107 would be a very fair. I wouldn't wait past Monday / Tuesday though, the inflection "pass" is indicated late Monday afternoon / early Tuesday morning, after which there will be heavy movement upward. Good luck!

Take care,

NVS

P.S. On SIRI, I should mention that the recent upgrade is really an attack on G/S. Goldman has a heavy amount of puts on (Dec 20th expiration), these other guys are doing everything they can to stick it to them. :-)]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 13:18:57 -0400
You're welcome buddy. I really mean the advice honestly. I have high six figures in myself, so I put my money where my mouth is. If you can get in under $105 consider yourself very lucky $106 - $107 would be a very fair. I wouldn't wait past Monday / Tuesday though, the inflection "pass" is indicated late Monday afternoon / early Tuesday morning, after which there will be heavy movement upward. Good luck!

Take care,

NVS

P.S. On SIRI, I should mention that the recent upgrade is really an attack on G/S. Goldman has a heavy amount of puts on (Dec 20th expiration), these other guys are doing everything they can to stick it to them. :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103169-who-will-win-the-home-entertainment-battle?source=feed#comment-295756 295756
Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 11:42:51 -0400
Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102941-share-buybacks-make-apple-sweeter?source=feed#comment-295755 295755
Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 11:42:13 -0400
Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103170-barrington-stays-positive-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-295754 295754
Take care,

NVS

My Technical Analysis of Apple

Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 11:40:20 -0400
Take care,

NVS

My Technical Analysis of Apple

Overview
I know many folks come on these boards claiming wildly higher prices with no justification other than plain speculation. I want to be clear that I will make some claims here that will seem incredulous, however I will humbly submit that I’ve done hours of homework and intend to justify my position with clear technical analysis. As a (mostly) technical trader (I prefer options), I make no real fundamental claims as to why these projections will be realized (I’ll leave that to others here), I only track the price action and momentum believing that the market will find ways to justify the inevitable outcome (e.g. “Good stocks find reasons to go higher, bad stocks find reasons to go lower”). I’ll also state that you should invest at your own risk and to make your own decisions as to how much risk you can afford. My final disclosure is that I am (very) long APPL calls (option positions set for positive price movement) and have a very bullish sentiment on this stock. With that aside, here is my opinion of APPL in the upcoming months.

Company Overview
Apple is a unique equity opportunity as the company has a significant cash reserve and consistent growth with a dedicated following in the consumer base. The beta being 2.62 implies that it’s volatility to market conditions is very high and thus it reacts to the overall market price movement in an exponential fashion. The market having recently bottomed (IMHO October 10th), is now looking for upward price momentum opportunities to recoup losses taken in the recent decline. Apple having a stable war-chest of cash and significant growth (26% this Q) presents a stable growth opportunity for investors in a market that has been relatively unstable. Apple (IMHO) also has a rather “cultish” following of investors as many high-net worth individuals can identify with the company and its ability to package and deliver products to market with such quality that they justify a premium price. Additionally, the recent release of the iPhone (IMHO) completely changes the landscape of mobile computing. With other companies releasing smaller cheaper notebooks (e.g. “Netbooks”) to offer a lower price point for consumers, they fail to realize that Apple offers the same capabilities (and a cell phone) for less than $200. I feel this revolution in mobile computing will be realized over the next year and then used for justification as to why the stock moved higher (for all you fundamentalists out there). Overall Apple is a very stable company with considerable cash-flows, and a significant cash reserve. This offers both immediate stability during uncertainty and the possibility of heavy growth in future earnings.


The Technical Analysis
The old saying “history repeats itself” is a mantra for technical traders. We analyze historical price movements and the technical indicators the preclude them. We then use this data to attempt to predict future price action to (hopefully) gain returns on our investments. It is clear to me that Apple is repeating a pattern seen during the last earnings season (please review AAPL from 01/08 – 05/08). The stock seems to dip significantly prior to earnings, then recover to about 85% of its prior value on the (mostly) good earnings news. Although the long term momentum is downward (consistent reduction in highs and lows forming a long term bearish triangle), the recent short term decline presents an opportunity for significant profits. We are currently at the bottom side of Apples rhythmic price action. The Fibonacci retrace indicates that the real bottom was $95 (I realize there were some short term deviations, this is insignificant noise in found in daily “panic” trading). The stock found support at this base ($95) forming a “swing point” during most of October 2008. We saw lows of $85, where critical historical resistance held up like a brick wall and highs of $110 where short term traders took profits. The recent trading range (up to earnings) established a “Bullish Triangle Reversal” pattern (minus low volume) that was simply awaiting a “breakout”. The short term low trending line (marking decreases in price movement) that started in early October was broken last week on October 28th 2008 (please refer to your charts). Although I realize this mimics a pre-earnings break out seen on October 13th, I would humbly submit that the 10/13 basing was a reaction to support levels ($85), and did not share the benefit of earnings growth confirmation. The recent rise in pricing is much different as the price has risen quite steadily (over several days) on positive volume rather than a sharp increase, then sharp decline where many traders find short term profits. The other significant difference of this recent increase is that the volatility index is reducing (rather than increasing) meaning that the price action of the stock is beginning to return to “actual” value. From October 10th to October 27th Apple was forming a triangular pattern derived from drawing a line (get a crayon) along the lows and another line along the highs. The significance of this pattern is that it indicates that investors are increasingly undecided as it swings above and below its mean value (IMHO $95). On October 28th Apple broke out of this reducing “swing pattern” at $104 and immediately rose to $112. In Technical Analysis we call this “breakout confirmation”. This fast increase in price movement combined with the bullish triangle formation and the historical price movement of 01/2008 – 05/2008, offers strong confirmation of future price action. The stock is returning to its long term mean of $125 bringing new highs in the $150 to $160 range over the next few months. Secondary confirmation of the mean can be seen on September 19th-29th as the stock found support in the $120-$130 range. Other technical indicators like the MACD, the Aroon, the RSI, the Money Flow, and the Stochastics offer strong proof that Apple has based, that the moving averages are moving upward, and that money flow is moving back into the stock. These signals combined with the recent break out lead me to offer the following predictions:

Apple Pricing Predictions:

11/15/2008 - 12/01/2008 - $122

12/15/2008 - 01/01/2009 - $150

Near Term Outlook
My feeling is that after these targets are reached, the stock will then stabilize for a few months and either resume its long term downward pattern or breakout of the pattern to find new highs. I will require more information and price action to make this determination. What is clear however is that at the current price of $107 the stock is significantly undervalued. I do see that some short term weakness (like Friday) may offer an entry point between $100 -$105, however I also see indications that the price movement Friday offered stability (a foothold) and that by Wednesday of next week we will be moving steadily higher.

The Hopeful Investor
My final commentary is that many investors that love this stock wait on the sidelines hoping for lower prices. I’m sure many of them will chime in and respond to this post negatively hoping to convince you otherwise. I would respectfully tell them that hope is not an investment strategy and that waiting for absolute lows (and highs) is sheer folly. As a Technical Investor you look to take advantage of 80% of the price action, risking 20% to short term volatility. These “hopeful investors” are the same folks that drive up the price dramatically as they panic to get in on the highs of the day and get burned by panicking and selling on the lows. Feeling disgruntled by their losses they come on these boards and trash the stock, then panic and buy in once the movement has already happened. They do eventually make money, but their short term lack of vision costs them 30% - 40% of what could have been made simply by trusting the technical indicators and ignoring the noise of short term movement. I can tell you this with full conscience as there was a time when I too was a “Hopeful Investor”. I have since learned (over 11 years) to trust what the indicators are saying, have faith in my decisions made calmly with the analysis, and not to be affected by the “drama” of daily movement.

Finally, the Conclusion
The technical signs are clear here folks. The stock is moving upward. I sincerely hope the data I have offered makes sense. I will be checking this post from time to time to answer any questions. I wish everyone the best of luck and hope you all take advantage of this opportunity to make money.


Take care,

NVS





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-291114 291114

NVS (v2.0)]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 21:01:48 -0400

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101889-12-promising-tech-stocks-barron-s?source=feed#comment-291113 291113
NVS (v2.0)]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:59:28 -0400
NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101889-12-promising-tech-stocks-barron-s?source=feed#comment-291112 291112
NVS (2.0)]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:58:21 -0400
NVS (2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-291105 291105

Take care,

NVS (v2.0)

P.S. I'm in Apple right now (bullish pennant retrace signal) but protecing with puts at $95. Hell of a week. Wish me luck. :-)

P.P.S. Don't buy ANYTHING without puts to insure.


]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:49:56 -0400

Take care,

NVS (v2.0)

P.S. I'm in Apple right now (bullish pennant retrace signal) but protecing with puts at $95. Hell of a week. Wish me luck. :-)

P.P.S. Don't buy ANYTHING without puts to insure.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-291097 291097 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:41:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-291095 291095
As Spock would say this stock "is not logical". Only madness lies here.

NVS (v2.0)]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:38:42 -0400
As Spock would say this stock "is not logical". Only madness lies here.

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-291083 291083


NVS (2.0)]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:26:31 -0400


NVS (2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-286738 286738

NVS (2.0)]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:28:26 -0400

NVS (2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-286732 286732

NVS (v2.0)]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:22:03 -0400

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285367 285367
United Shareholders of America

www.icahnreport.com/re...

I signed up.


NVS (v2.0)]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 19:03:39 -0400
United Shareholders of America

www.icahnreport.com/re...

I signed up.


NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285364 285364
Where is Carl Ichan when you need him, eh? I hear he has a new website (believe it ir not) I think I'm going to look for it. Maybe we should all write our Representatives, they love SIRI witchhunts!


BTW... Nice Letter COS...I hope it doesnt get tossed in the circular file.

:-)

Take Care,

NVS (v2.0)]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 18:57:52 -0400
Where is Carl Ichan when you need him, eh? I hear he has a new website (believe it ir not) I think I'm going to look for it. Maybe we should all write our Representatives, they love SIRI witchhunts!


BTW... Nice Letter COS...I hope it doesnt get tossed in the circular file.

:-)

Take Care,

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285333 285333
You're obviously a very smart guy (unlike me) I think this market is walking like a duck and talking like one. I am also tempted to buy, but I know what a drug greed can be. I keep setting up orders and cancelling them. Ahhh the drama. At least it gives me something to do.

I was doing some more research on SIRI and found that the CEO purchased 2M sahres (twice his usual amount) in August @ $1.37, curiously exactly one dollar from Firday's close. Any ideas on what this may be about. Here's the link to verify (p.s. great site):

www.secform4.com/insid...

Thanks,

NVS (v2.0)]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:35:17 -0400
You're obviously a very smart guy (unlike me) I think this market is walking like a duck and talking like one. I am also tempted to buy, but I know what a drug greed can be. I keep setting up orders and cancelling them. Ahhh the drama. At least it gives me something to do.

I was doing some more research on SIRI and found that the CEO purchased 2M sahres (twice his usual amount) in August @ $1.37, curiously exactly one dollar from Firday's close. Any ideas on what this may be about. Here's the link to verify (p.s. great site):

www.secform4.com/insid...

Thanks,

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285314 285314

NVS (v2.0) ]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:28:42 -0400

NVS (v2.0) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285293 285293 CEO) is on your side. The CEO is only trying to keep his compnay (and liquidity) alive and will do so at all costs (including shafting shareholders). You can't blame him as anyone here (when pressed) would do the same. Honestly, we all buy stock to make money, not to make friends. Why would the CEO be any different? Don't get mad...get even. Vote "No" on the proxy.

NVS (v2.0)]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:51:58 -0400 CEO) is on your side. The CEO is only trying to keep his compnay (and liquidity) alive and will do so at all costs (including shafting shareholders). You can't blame him as anyone here (when pressed) would do the same. Honestly, we all buy stock to make money, not to make friends. Why would the CEO be any different? Don't get mad...get even. Vote "No" on the proxy.

NVS (v2.0)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285283 285283
Thanks for the kind words, but I hardly feel worthy. When I last left this stock (sold), I notified everyone. If I do so again, I would surely hope the advice outweighs any greed or desperation this audience may have.

You make a misjudgment in that you are trying to play this stock technically. As you can see from many very intelligent posters, this stock will drive a technician absolutely crazy. Playing this stock is like playing poker and any investors would be wise to look for "Bluffs" and "Tells". The news Friday (IMHO) was a bluff to induce several effects:


1. Get the last loyal stockholders out so they will not vote on the proxy.

2. Get all bad news out (including CEO pay) to demonstrate to shorts that there is no more capitulation.

2. Scare the existing Debt holders as their collateral will also be diluted.

3. Send up a flare (along with Job cuts) to the Government in hopes to qualify for a cheap loan from IB's (IB's are in on this).

4. Force some special appropriation from Nasdaq to take preventative action from de-listing (we've already seen this).


Don't get me wrong. I do not believe in the company or the stock nor will I hold these shares for any significant length of time. But the true "tell" of the bottom was the large volume purchases (seen on level 2) of shorts covering and IB's getting in. Somebody knows something and it will be public next week. I only look to make a short term buck here and will be happy with 5 or tem cents of movement. The problem with the SIRI longs (bless their hearts) is that they want to believe, so they are easy to fool.


SIRI is for small investors that think there is value in cheap stocks because they can buy lots of shares. This is actually not true as one should always play percentages rather than prices. If an equity goes up 20% whether its $3 or $300...you make 10%. Now there is some differentials in higher priced stocks (like GOOG) as they move in larger steps, but again it makes no difference what the price of a stock is, it only matters in regards to P/E etc. The folks on this blog ( I mean no Offense) that claim their retirement, homes and children's college funds are gone probably blame the dealer in Vegas for not "busting" while their holding 14. Every investor is solely responsible for their investment and have only themselves to blame for their losses (again I mean no offense). You can sit any cry about it... or pick your self up....learn from it...and move on. The good news is there is lots of value out there right now and plenty of opportunity to make profits in other (better) stocks. I suggest looking for companies with good earnings and recent devaluation due to forced liquidations (I personally like Apple, Microsoft, and Chesapeake Energy).

Next week Paulson will let everyone know that 1.3 Trillion will be pumped in to the economy (including small businesses) next month. This combined with decent (non-financial) earnings next week will alleviate some of the general suffering. Use this time to liquidate bad positions and enter better ones.

I wish you all the best of luck and again I hope no one takes offense to my comments, I mean them constructively.


Take Care


NVS (v2.0)

]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:44:03 -0400
Thanks for the kind words, but I hardly feel worthy. When I last left this stock (sold), I notified everyone. If I do so again, I would surely hope the advice outweighs any greed or desperation this audience may have.

You make a misjudgment in that you are trying to play this stock technically. As you can see from many very intelligent posters, this stock will drive a technician absolutely crazy. Playing this stock is like playing poker and any investors would be wise to look for "Bluffs" and "Tells". The news Friday (IMHO) was a bluff to induce several effects:


1. Get the last loyal stockholders out so they will not vote on the proxy.

2. Get all bad news out (including CEO pay) to demonstrate to shorts that there is no more capitulation.

2. Scare the existing Debt holders as their collateral will also be diluted.

3. Send up a flare (along with Job cuts) to the Government in hopes to qualify for a cheap loan from IB's (IB's are in on this).

4. Force some special appropriation from Nasdaq to take preventative action from de-listing (we've already seen this).


Don't get me wrong. I do not believe in the company or the stock nor will I hold these shares for any significant length of time. But the true "tell" of the bottom was the large volume purchases (seen on level 2) of shorts covering and IB's getting in. Somebody knows something and it will be public next week. I only look to make a short term buck here and will be happy with 5 or tem cents of movement. The problem with the SIRI longs (bless their hearts) is that they want to believe, so they are easy to fool.


SIRI is for small investors that think there is value in cheap stocks because they can buy lots of shares. This is actually not true as one should always play percentages rather than prices. If an equity goes up 20% whether its $3 or $300...you make 10%. Now there is some differentials in higher priced stocks (like GOOG) as they move in larger steps, but again it makes no difference what the price of a stock is, it only matters in regards to P/E etc. The folks on this blog ( I mean no Offense) that claim their retirement, homes and children's college funds are gone probably blame the dealer in Vegas for not "busting" while their holding 14. Every investor is solely responsible for their investment and have only themselves to blame for their losses (again I mean no offense). You can sit any cry about it... or pick your self up....learn from it...and move on. The good news is there is lots of value out there right now and plenty of opportunity to make profits in other (better) stocks. I suggest looking for companies with good earnings and recent devaluation due to forced liquidations (I personally like Apple, Microsoft, and Chesapeake Energy).

Next week Paulson will let everyone know that 1.3 Trillion will be pumped in to the economy (including small businesses) next month. This combined with decent (non-financial) earnings next week will alleviate some of the general suffering. Use this time to liquidate bad positions and enter better ones.

I wish you all the best of luck and again I hope no one takes offense to my comments, I mean them constructively.


Take Care


NVS (v2.0)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100371-is-a-reverse-split-in-the-cards-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-285203 285203
NVS]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 12:09:32 -0400
NVS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84743-analysts-note-latest-satellite-radio-merger-angles?source=feed#comment-204530 204530 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:36:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84544-sirius-xm-and-c3sr-who?source=feed#comment-204479 204479 please offer your support for the merger and take a few moments to do
so. Here's the link:

www.fcc.gov/commission...


Here's my letter to Mrs. Tate:


Dear Mrs. Tate,


The recent advent of free streaming internet radio combined with
the recently approved Clear Channel merger has created an anti-
competitive bias against satellite radio providers. Although the
terrestrial radio companies have invested much to buy support, I
beseech you to resist the well paid opposition and approve the
Sirius / XM merger without any further conditions. The truth is that
satellite radio will have to fight hard to survive now; any further
delay may cripple their ability to remain solvent. I'm sure you are
concerned about the political implications of not cooperating with the
democratic pundits, however if you truly have future political
ambitions I would suggest that the public (myself included) is
watching your decision closely. The delay that the FCC has imposed on
this merger has already sacrificed billions of republican
constituent’s equity, this will not be lost from memory when your
political ambitions change from appointment offices to more publicly
controlled offices. If the power of the people is valuable to your
long term prospects, then I suggest you resist the short term benefit
gleaned by appeasing special interest groups, and do the right thing
here. Enough is enough. Please demonstrate your ability to be a fair
and offer your vote for merger approval. Thank you.


]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:27:14 -0400 please offer your support for the merger and take a few moments to do
so. Here's the link:

www.fcc.gov/commission...


Here's my letter to Mrs. Tate:


Dear Mrs. Tate,


The recent advent of free streaming internet radio combined with
the recently approved Clear Channel merger has created an anti-
competitive bias against satellite radio providers. Although the
terrestrial radio companies have invested much to buy support, I
beseech you to resist the well paid opposition and approve the
Sirius / XM merger without any further conditions. The truth is that
satellite radio will have to fight hard to survive now; any further
delay may cripple their ability to remain solvent. I'm sure you are
concerned about the political implications of not cooperating with the
democratic pundits, however if you truly have future political
ambitions I would suggest that the public (myself included) is
watching your decision closely. The delay that the FCC has imposed on
this merger has already sacrificed billions of republican
constituent’s equity, this will not be lost from memory when your
political ambitions change from appointment offices to more publicly
controlled offices. If the power of the people is valuable to your
long term prospects, then I suggest you resist the short term benefit
gleaned by appeasing special interest groups, and do the right thing
here. Enough is enough. Please demonstrate your ability to be a fair
and offer your vote for merger approval. Thank you.


]]>