me0w

3 Comments

    • ON: Wed Apr 9th 18:03 PM
      Commented on:
      Garmin: Clearly Something's Not Right
      Discretionary consumer spending might be dwindling, GPS profit margins are coming down, revenues might fall from the 4Q.

      1. The American consumer never ceases to spend/astound
      2. When your gross is 60+% and net almost 30%, maybe it's time for the margins to come down a bit
      3. What cyclical product is exempt from that?

      The stock is at P/E of 9 going forward, what!?!?!

      Even conservative analsyst have sales growing at 20%.

      Buy before Apr 30, because it'll be too late by then.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Apr 8th 17:17 PM
      Commented on:
      Lessons Learned from 'March Madness'
      I agree this analogy doesn't translate perfectly--the way I understood it, he means you have to be 70% sure the stock you own won't do well and 70% sure the prospective stock will do well and that's where he's getting the dependent probability of 49%. But I don't know that I see the two thoughts as separate. It's more like "I'm x% confident this stock will do better than the one I have". So by definition of "being sure", if that level of confidence is >50% (plus some margin for B/A and commissions) then you would execute the trades. By that logic, unless you pick stocks like Shaq at the foul line, you can change the portfolio holdings more often than the article is arguing.

      In any case, point taken, don't get trade happy unless you're confident.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Apr 1st 16:19 PM
      Commented on:
      Strong, Sudden Interest In Lehman Puts
      whoever was driving that trend lost their shirt today
      View article »
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