stevepluvia

http://www.kickthesac.com

83 Comments

    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 10:39 AM
      Commented on:
      Paulson Plan: The Death of the Dollar & Free Markets
      Shorting the dollar here? Based on "Austrian economics" Uhhhhh huh. Take off that tin foil hat and Ron Paul sticker while I drop some knowledge. The commercial paper problem is not restricted to the USA -- see death spiraling EU markets for evidence. And while leadership in the U.S. has been asleep for the past 8yrs eff'n up practically everything thinkable, one thing remains true: We still have the smartest, fastest self healing financial system in the world. The credit crisis in the EU will dwarf what happened in the U.S. precisely because they don't have the means to fix the problem we do. Austrian economics in the EU vs intervention in the US is happening as we speak. Results? strong dollar weak euro.
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    • ON: Tue Jul 29th 10:00 AM
      Commented on:
      Getting Charged Up About Lithium
      Julian; do better research:

      1. Lithium in not rare;
      2. $500 25kwh Lithium Batteries -- coming to a Th!nk car near you:

      ARGONNE, Ill. (July 17, 2008)—Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory and their industrial partners have won two R&D 100 Awards for innovative fluid sealing and lithium-ion battery technologies.

      www.anl.gov/Media_Cent...

      "EnerDel/Argonne Advanced High-Power Battery for hybrid electric vehicles

      The EnerDel/Argonne lithium-ion battery is a highly reliable and extremely safe device that is lighter in weight, more compact, more powerful and longer-lasting than the nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) )batteries in today's hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

      The battery is expected to meet the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium's $500 manufacturing price criterion for a 25-kilowatt battery, which is almost a sixth of the cost to make comparable Ni-MH batteries intended for use in HEVs. It is also less expensive to make than comparable Li-ion batteries. That cost reduction is expected to help make HEVs more competitive in the marketplace and enable consumers to receive an immediate payback in gas-cost savings rather than having to wait seven years for the savings to surpass the premium placed on HEVs."
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    • ON: Mon Jul 21st 09:24 AM
      Commented on:
      GT Solar: Will the Sun Shine On This Solar IPO?
      GT Solar should not be purchased. Given their hi valuation and focus on c-Si they are "old tech", soon to be replaced by thin film which has significant production cost advantages.
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    • ON: Thu Jul 10th 10:29 AM
      Commented on:
      Who Will Crack the CIGS Nut in Thin Film?
      Alex G: CIGS, like all PV, must be encapsulated to avoid oxidation. You cannot "spray" it on cement etc and magically generate electricity.

      CIGS, like all PV must be constructed in a "clean room" like a giant semiconductor. CIGS can use flexible backing and encapsulation that reduces weight, reduces transport costs and provides more options for building integration during construction. The primary advantage of CIGS is the ability to manufacture much more rapidly and at a lower cost than traditional PV -- known as "crystalline PV" or c-Si.

      Hope that helps

      Steve P
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    • ON: Wed Jul 9th 11:19 AM
      Commented on:
      Who Will Crack the CIGS Nut in Thin Film?
      Neil, good article; you are perhaps the first seekingalpha poster who actually knows the renewable business [unlike many here who make the fatal mistake of trying to base investment decisions on eps that are rapidly evolving due to advent of more cost competitive tech -- sorry Jack that means you =)].

      We have evaluated all of the CIGS players and came to very similar conclusions; we're long development co ASTI [because its the only public CIGS pure play + quality mgnt + depth of experience] but would buy Global Solar if it were public. As you noted in earlier articles, Global operated their pilot plant for 3 years before effectively 'perfecting' their production line.

      While many dispute Nanosolar's claims, they have installed a 1mw solar farm [germany] using their product which is the largest CIGS install in the world. Definitely worth watching, and should they become public forcing them to demonstrate their claims, they could be a world beater.

      Steve Pluvia
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    • ON: Mon Jun 23rd 09:51 AM
      Commented on:
      The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
      Author is clueless re: the cost metrics of oil exploration, production & refining; Typical fat, lazy American research.
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    • ON: Mon Jun 23rd 09:41 AM
      Commented on:
      The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
      Authors so called "facts" are nothing more than unsupported opinion and guesstimates of others who generally have no fact basis;

      This article is a fantastic example of pathetic research.
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    • ON: Mon Jun 23rd 08:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader
      I wasted 43 seconds reading this pointless scribble
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    • ON: Wed Jun 11th 10:44 AM
      Commented on:
      Evergreen Solar Hopes for Bullish Response to 'Analyst Day'
      It all about cost per watt. Production cost and install costs. Until ESLR shows a path to production costs of sub $1.20/watt, they will not be competitive. They need to accomplish this in the next 12-18 months or find a more productive use of their time and money.
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    • ON: Sat Jun 7th 16:11 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      "You were pumping FSLR a month ago at $300/share. Lay off the insults."

      VP of Nonsense,

      I never "pumped" FSLR, I just corrected fact-errors made by ridiculous shorts. As I said then, I have never been long FSLR, and I doubt I will ever be in the future.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 18:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      VP of Nonsense:

      "Since I think that thin film's cost advantage will be greater today than at any day in the future, the opportunity for big gains from investing in thin film has passed."

      Udderly ridiculous statement. "cost advantage" is not the issue, it's growth and margins. CIGS has the highest profit margin potential and unlimited growth because they will be selling product that can be installed at grid parity prices.

      c-Si is looking at margins shrinking to zero from now until at least '10; That means PE's growing due to shrinking profits, or earnings turning to losses -- and thus no PE. During that time thin film companies will be expanding using profits.

      As to this info being know by the street and baked in the cake -- baloney. AMAT was not considered a threat capable of driving PV price down until Signet Solar announced they completed their AMAT plant [pr dated May 23]. Even then, few understood the significance of this event. Most thought like you, c-Si could survive until poly prices drop with growing sales and margins in the 20's.

      Smart money now knows c-Si margins will go to zero in the next 12 months and they fled the c-Si sector like rats abandoning ship.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 18:04 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      BUYSTOCKS:

      "Steve Pluvia, However Thin film can't be used on residential rooftops, which is a huge market."

      1. Residential PV is a tiny market compared to commercial rooftop and free-field installations;

      2. We design 10-15kw 10% thin film PV systems for residential homes [larger, hi-end flat roof contemporary homes], so to say you can't use thin film on residential is just plain wrong.

      "Its about costs stupid" Nobody puts a $55,000 c-Si system on a house [or anywhere else] when you get the same energy from $35,000 thin film system. If you have to pay $55k, [because the available footprint is too small for thin film] you just don't put it on your house.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 15:13 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      "Steve, what is the lifespan of c-Si compared to AMAT, CdTe, and CIGS?"

      They are all engineered for 20-25yr lifetimes. Nobody knows exactly how long they'll last because they haven't been around that long. That said, there are some advantages between the technologies:

      1. CIGS increases efficiency with initial sun exposure while light induced degradation results in decreasing efficiency of a-Si by 15-20%; c-Si by avg .071%/yr.

      2. CIGS outperforms all other technology in low light conditions and hi temp summer conditions.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 14:58 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      Iconoclast:

      "One day there will be something that beats polysilicon. But that day is not today, and will not be any day this decade."

      Umm yea. Unadulterated rookie BS.

      AMAT is the world leader in semiconductor tools and has been for more than a decade. Semiconductors and flat panels produced from AMAT tools are in literally every modern home in the USA.

      When AMAT said they were producing an automated production line for thin film PV -- smart money grabbed a triple vente latte and woke the eff up. When AMAT proved they could build a plant in 7 months and ramp equipment in 3 months smart money began rotating out of c-Si and into thin film.

      When AMAT achieved the milestone noted in the last paragraph they changed the PV industry forever. There is no longer a technology barrier to entering lo cost thin film PV; Anyone can plunk down the cash and start spitting out PV that can be sold with a 50% margin and installed at grid parity prices. Install at grid parity prices = unlimited growth.

      This grid parity PV competes with coal power plants, not c-Si. Arguing differences between c-Si and thin film pv is a waste of breath. As the saying goes: "Its about costs stupid".

      Thin film PV has big profit margins and unlimited growth because it can be installed at grid parity prices with phat margins. c-Si cannot be installed at grid parity prices without giant subsidies, and even then margins are slim to nil. Even with a 80% drop in poly, c-SI cannot cost compete with CIGS thin film, which is why we're insanely bullish over CIGS thin film.

      Smart money gets this. Joe six pack does not and will buy the c-Si stock smart money shorts.

      Good luck

      Steve Pluvia
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    • ON: Fri Jun 6th 10:39 AM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings
      The residential roofing market is higher cost/watt to install and prone to problems [panels need periodic washing -- require easy access].

      Smart money is in flat commercial roofing and free-field installs large PV farms located within metro areas [no long transmission].

      Steve Pluvia
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