ripskii

Are Oil and Natural Gas Cheap or Expensive?

All our energy options nave associated problems that require solutions. Instead of whining about their difficulty we would be better rewarded by solving them. For example there is little doubt that we require more and better nuclear power along with wind, solar, geothermal, and NG.. The IFR reactor concept greatly improves efficiency, is inherently safe, consumes light water reactor waste (eliminating the need for Yucca Mountain) and converts very long half life material to only a few hundred years. Unfortunately this advanced program at the Argonne Lab was shut down more than a decade ago. It is way past time to not only address our short term bridge energy solutions like NG, but to plan for what is on the other end of that bridge!

www.sustainablenuclear...

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

You should add the dollar vs. a basket of other currencies to your table for comparison. I suspect it would reflect a % value decline similar to oil and gold. I note that all U.S. politicians say a strong dollar is good for the country and then promptly vote for policies that weaken it. The theory behind devaluation of one's currency is that it will lead to greater exports due to their lower cost and reduced imports because of higher costs, thus improving the trade balance. Unfortunately our need for oil doesn't fit into this model very well and other than agriculture products what are we exporting?. Oil and gold will continue to thrive as long as we pursue our present path.

We need to immediately ramp of our use of domestic gas for transport fuel as you suggest to reduce our trade deficit and improve our energy security. We also should immediately push forward on advanced fast nuclear power generation to provide base load electrical capacity and also solve our long term nuclear waste storage problem. Other counties are working on this technology (Japan, Russia, China etc.) so we won't be a leader in this for export either if we don't move forward soon. More good paying U.S. high tech jobs are at stake too.

The U.S. Dollar and Oil: Is an Endgame Near?

Fitz: Per your comment I read your instablog article and posted a response there. Sadly I have to agree with most of your conclusions.

The Big Picture

Fitz: Your pretty much spell out the dilemma facing our country regarding implementing a coherent national energy policy. Unfortunately your list of policy failures is long and often unbelievable in any rational context. The history of the IFR nuclear reactor development reads a lot like the current NG debacle. Incredibility short sighted and stupid decisions made by incompetent persons to the detriment of achieving efficient energy independence. It seems that we are incapable of working toward a sensible long term solution to most of out rather obvious problems. Last time I checked this oil/energy problem was well over three decades old and we still don't seem to have a plan to deal with it. We can look at Brazil as an example of a country that woke up after the 1973 oil embargo, made a plan to solve their imported oil problem, executed it and are now completely free from imported oil. It is just a coincidence that they are now one of few the growth economies in the world currently?

Note that Europe is using diesel fuel for cars because they are so much more efficient. $7-9/gal fuel prices makes efficiency much more valuable to consumers. Honda builds a European diesel car (Accord) that achieved 90 mpg in test runs and it wasn't a hybrid either. The engine was designed by their famous race engine designer who was given a free hand at his request to build an advanced engine. Note this engine doesn't require urea to meet all the clean air requirements using the low sulfur diesel fuel. Imagine what they could accomplish do if they applied this approach to a hybrid NG design.

The U.S. Dollar and Oil: Is an Endgame Near?

Good call on our current strategy (if there even is one). The only reason the dollar is maintaining value at all is because it has been the world reserve currency for a long time and there is no handy replacement at the present time. Our profligate economic and political policies continue to erode the value of the dollar and many others recognize this fact and are looking to hedge its eventual decline. China is a good example of this by using their excess dollars to purchase hard asset commodities. The resultant price rise of commodities will eventually act as a tax on our feeble economic recovery and arrest it. It is inexplicable that our government can't act to reduce our huge trade deficit by substituting domestic NG for imported oil in all possible applications. It seems that special interests, political posturing and stupidity rule our government now. No wonder gold has rallied recently and commodity producing countries currencies continue top gain over the dollar. Oil price rises will eventually push our economy back into recession (if we are even out of it yet)!

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

Mark: You've clearly stirred up a hornets nest of opinion regarding how much NG the U.S. has. Before you make statements about those quantities you would be well advised to read Robert Hefners's book "The GET Grand Energy Transition". Your comments about his gas well drilling economics entirely misses the point about NG reserves. He has extensive experience in developing NG reserves and presents substantial data to support his estimates (there is a lot of NG).

Battery Investing for Beginners, Part 2

John:

Thanks again for inciting this excellent forum for discussion on various battery (storage) solutions. Your many contributors bring a useful and diverse experiences to the discussion along with many good insights. Having used a number of various battery technologies over many years for small capacity but demanding applications, I appreciate the auto vehicle problems where real costs are a big part of the equation (unlike many research applications). A relevant question is how much will these developments (or lack thereof) affect our economy and future? The question of natural resources is very interesting, but perhaps less than critical because we have often overcome the difficulty of providing for external resource needs. The cold war mentality promoted the concept that we must become self sufficient in everything, but it isn't always necessary for successful production of a product in demand worldwide.

Natural Gas Momentum Likely to Continue - Blackmont

"No, price will. They are shutting in when prices crash"

You miss the point about full storage. If there is no place to put the NG then production must be equal demand (use) or less. The CEO of CHK has acknowledged this fact when he stated they would not further lower production until storage capacity was reached because all producers will then be forced to cut back production.

Natural Gas Momentum Likely to Continue - Blackmont

At the current rate of gas injection into storage capacity will be reached toward the end of October. This event will force a reduction in production and hence the valley. Demand at this point will determine production levels.

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

Mark Bern: Interesting observation. My long time hunter neighbor commented about a week and a half ago about the abrupt departure of all the doves noting that they usually fly to warmer areas at the first sign of colder season to arrive. So far it has only cooled slightly, but he assured me it was an indication of a colder season to arrive and they are all gone.

Why Is Congress Agnostic About Natural Gas?

Hopefully someone in the industry will take the NG hybrid design concept seriously and follow up on it. The students at Western Washington did a remarkable job with their NG hybrid Honda demonstrating the viability of the approach. I've read that the energy (Oil) industry is the largest contributor to lobbying congress, so the NG component must be subservient to oil. Note the COP has a large NG component and its stock has been punished for it so far.

west.wwu.edu/ucomm_new...

Natural Gas: America's Energy Salvation

Good article that outlines the reasons why we must make much better use of our abundant NG resources. The present licensing regulations for converting autos to NG use are a serious impediment and need to be changed. Westport (WPRT) now produces NG engines in partnership with Cummings that are installed in many buses and trucks.

In the long term NG is a transition fuel and while we must aggressively develop its use now we must also develop advanced nuclear reactors such as the IFR design to provide clean sustainable base load electricity for our future. The IFR design can burn accumulated nuclear waste as fuel converting it into much shorter half-life material. Davewmart has accurately described some of the many roadblocks to this progress that much be removed. Since this is a long term development it must be started now in order to be in place when we need it not to mention secure the U.S. future in the industry which is sure to grow.

Energy Secretary Chu Wimps Out Again

candooman: You are exactly correct with respect to our need to complete development of advanced nuclear power generation. Quite a lot of progress has been made in the past, but unfortunately our forward thrust was ended about a decade ago. Natural gas can transition us off imported oil, but we need a plan for the longer term that produces clean sustainable electrical power and eliminates our accumulated nuclear waste, especially if electricity is to make up much of our future transportation. The IFR reactor design can accomplish all this while converting long lived nuclear waste to a product with only a few hundred year half life.and free us of the need for new uranium for several hundred years. While many hope fusion will come to our rescue in the future it appears to remain in the distant future.

www.sustainablenuclear...

Energy Secretary Chu Wimps Out Again

Thanks for the update on alternate fuel initiatives, such as they are. After reading the text of the DOE announcement it seems a worthwhile but meager effort, especially when you see than a significant portion of the awards are for E-85 stations, electric recharging stations and propane refueling. It is difficult to determine from the release just how much progress is being made to expand the NG infrastructure that is badly needed to make it more widely available. The Westport release is somewhat more encouraging and indicates some positive impact in the heavy truck NG and LNG use. I wonder how HR 1835 will interface with this effort if at all?

Clearly most of the current efforts to reduce our use of imported oil are politically driven and appear under control of the status quo lobbyist. If an oil to gas price ratio of a historic 24 cannot increase our use of the lower cost alternative one has to question the entire system.

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

John:

First class article and good analysis. Unfortunately you also bring to the forefront the problems associated with technical solutions that are driven by short term political considerations to the exclusion of solid long term science. If the objective is to substantially reduce our use of imported oil (to reduce our trade deficit) then natural gas fueled vehicles are the obvious near term solution. All the technology now exists and could be combined with various hybrid technologies to further reduce consumption.

The other issue not often discussed is the cost of electrical energy required to supply PHEV and EV's. Those rates vary by area and are rising along with the general energy complex. In order to support a large number of PHEV and EV's serious electrical grid improvements are needed that entail large costs.

www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/...