ussmex's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/171480/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-645905 645905
But I believe much of China's recent advance will turn out to be a mirage and that they're well on their way to another bursting bubble. Simply put, their central command has not and does not allocate resources efficiently. It spent the last decade or longer positioning the economy to cash in on a rate of Western consumption that is not ultimately sustainable. In its rush to paper over that problem it is, without a doubt, funding important infrastructure projects, but at the same time it's funding speculation, creating a lending environment that encourages "entrepreneurs" to continue to throw crap against the wall (much like our dot com phase), and, most disturblingly, spending billions to entrench the most technologically advanced spy state the world has ever known.

As they've forced the development of an export-based economy how many world-class companies have they they forged that can thrive during an economic downturn? Enough to overcome the billions wasted on coddling the cronies at state-run enterprises, or on fly-by-nights in the export economy that can't pay back their loans?

I'm in Vitaly's camp in this one. China is not immune to the boom/bust cycles related to the misallocation of resources. It's in their future to make great strides, but as people pop the celebratory champagne bottles over their arrival be on the lookout for bubbles.







]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:32:21 -0400
But I believe much of China's recent advance will turn out to be a mirage and that they're well on their way to another bursting bubble. Simply put, their central command has not and does not allocate resources efficiently. It spent the last decade or longer positioning the economy to cash in on a rate of Western consumption that is not ultimately sustainable. In its rush to paper over that problem it is, without a doubt, funding important infrastructure projects, but at the same time it's funding speculation, creating a lending environment that encourages "entrepreneurs" to continue to throw crap against the wall (much like our dot com phase), and, most disturblingly, spending billions to entrench the most technologically advanced spy state the world has ever known.

As they've forced the development of an export-based economy how many world-class companies have they they forged that can thrive during an economic downturn? Enough to overcome the billions wasted on coddling the cronies at state-run enterprises, or on fly-by-nights in the export economy that can't pay back their loans?

I'm in Vitaly's camp in this one. China is not immune to the boom/bust cycles related to the misallocation of resources. It's in their future to make great strides, but as people pop the celebratory champagne bottles over their arrival be on the lookout for bubbles.







]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144573-friday-was-a-good-day-for-starent-yingli-and-wyndham?source=feed#comment-557482 557482
Or is it the mechanics of a stop order that explains what happened? For example, perhaps when the price hit $12.45 there was enough demand to sell mine, but not yours before the close?

If any readers understand stop order flow I would love to be educated. ]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:57:06 -0400
Or is it the mechanics of a stop order that explains what happened? For example, perhaps when the price hit $12.45 there was enough demand to sell mine, but not yours before the close?

If any readers understand stop order flow I would love to be educated. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131010-the-next-leg-up-in-financials?source=feed#comment-476504 476504 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:17:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114963-what-i-would-do?source=feed#comment-356867 356867
Could someone weigh in? Thanks!]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 14:55:36 -0500
Could someone weigh in? Thanks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106744-apple-s-greatest-idea-yet?source=feed#comment-310832 310832 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:09:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105596-bust-up-not-bailout?source=feed#comment-304120 304120
]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:55:32 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-303105 303105
Nobody begrudges a working man a living wage, but we don't live in a world of wishes. The market eventually asserts itself. Most of the readers of Seeking Alpha understand this, and for this reason they are against inflating the money supply to prop up the salaries of the American auto industry. ]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 12:51:41 -0500
Nobody begrudges a working man a living wage, but we don't live in a world of wishes. The market eventually asserts itself. Most of the readers of Seeking Alpha understand this, and for this reason they are against inflating the money supply to prop up the salaries of the American auto industry. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102692-three-areas-of-opportunity-for-the-bold?source=feed#comment-294001 294001
Your rate on an investment property will be much higher than 6%, unless you buy it down with points.

If you take out a loan your lender will require that you have a hazard insurance policy. The cost of your policy will be significant, especially if the insurer gets wind that you plan to rent it as a "horse property". You need to build insurance costs into your monthly outflow.

Banks don't just drop their pants on short sales. If you offer them 20% less than their asking price you'd better have some quality time scheduled with the individual handling their portfolio, or the only sound you'll hear from them will be silence.

I could go on. You really need to do a few of these deals before you present yourself as an authority on Seeking Alpha.





]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 00:41:02 -0400
Your rate on an investment property will be much higher than 6%, unless you buy it down with points.

If you take out a loan your lender will require that you have a hazard insurance policy. The cost of your policy will be significant, especially if the insurer gets wind that you plan to rent it as a "horse property". You need to build insurance costs into your monthly outflow.

Banks don't just drop their pants on short sales. If you offer them 20% less than their asking price you'd better have some quality time scheduled with the individual handling their portfolio, or the only sound you'll hear from them will be silence.

I could go on. You really need to do a few of these deals before you present yourself as an authority on Seeking Alpha.





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99456-blame-game-redux-8-more-things-to-blame-for-this-crisis?source=feed#comment-280216 280216 We all understand that residential mortgage underwriters relaxed their standards, making it easier for people to speculate and leverage to the hilt. I work in the industry and can assure you that, as you would expect, that particular trend has reversed itself.

I recommend two additional changes that, along with more stringent underwriting guidelines, would help prevent the type of froth we've seen in the last few years:

1) As much as possible, remove the human element from residential appraising. 90% of the data needed to determine the market value of a home is online, or in county records, or contained in existing appraisals. Outfitted with the right software, a computer could do 90% of an appraiser's job. The extent of human involvement, at least in non-rural areas, should be limited to snapping interior and exterior photos to prove that the home is whole, properly maintained, and not a risk.

A legitimization of automated appraising would not only improve a mortgage customer's experience, but it would significantly reduce the gaming of the system by corrupt appraisers and loan officers. With people involved there are as many potential appraised values for a given home as there are personalities and levels of ethics. To this day loan officers are still looking for appraisers who know how to "push value" and get away with it. Lenders increasingly use automated valuations to check an appraiser's work. We need to advance the automation to the point where it's providing the bulk of the analysis.

2) Reduce and simplify the closing documents a mortgage customer is required to sign. Most refinance signings happen in the evening at the customer's home. If you had experienced a taxing day at work and a mobile notary arrived at your door with 50-100 documents for you to sign, what are the chances that you miss one of the crucial details in the loan's terms? For example, what if your loan officer had repeatedly assured you that the loan featured no penalty for pre-payment. What if the loan Note said the same thing, but buried in the stack of documents was an Addendum to the Note that established a 3-year pre-payment penalty? What are the chances that you would notice it? I can tell you from experience that the current system allows unscrupulous loan officers to manipulate borrowers. The three-day right of rescission on all refinance loans is supposed to treat this problem, but it's not working. Most of the homeowners that called me in the last few years to refinance out of pay-option ARM loans (negative amortization) didn't truly understand their loan and weren't aware of their pre-payment penalty (usually six-months of interest or up to 3% of the unpaid balance). Many of them had been told the loan was a 30 year fixed and had been enticed out of much more stable loans with the teaser payment. At one point I was receiving at least one of these types of calls on every working day.

I recommend eliminating the signing requirement on all closing documents aside from the Note, the Deed, the estimated settlement statement, and a one or two page summary document that states, in clear, simple sentences, the terms of the loan and how it functions. I know I'm leaving out a few other key docs, but basically everything else should be put to the side for review at the borrower's leisure during the rescission period.

George Soros submitted some intriguing commentary in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that we fashion our mortgage market like the one in Denmark. Perhaps one of the "maverick" presidential candidates would like to tackle that. From what I remember George W was friends with the guy who ran Ameriquest, arguably the most crooked large-scale home lending operation the country has ever seen. I don't ol' W will have much to offer as a fix.


]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 23:15:33 -0400 We all understand that residential mortgage underwriters relaxed their standards, making it easier for people to speculate and leverage to the hilt. I work in the industry and can assure you that, as you would expect, that particular trend has reversed itself.

I recommend two additional changes that, along with more stringent underwriting guidelines, would help prevent the type of froth we've seen in the last few years:

1) As much as possible, remove the human element from residential appraising. 90% of the data needed to determine the market value of a home is online, or in county records, or contained in existing appraisals. Outfitted with the right software, a computer could do 90% of an appraiser's job. The extent of human involvement, at least in non-rural areas, should be limited to snapping interior and exterior photos to prove that the home is whole, properly maintained, and not a risk.

A legitimization of automated appraising would not only improve a mortgage customer's experience, but it would significantly reduce the gaming of the system by corrupt appraisers and loan officers. With people involved there are as many potential appraised values for a given home as there are personalities and levels of ethics. To this day loan officers are still looking for appraisers who know how to "push value" and get away with it. Lenders increasingly use automated valuations to check an appraiser's work. We need to advance the automation to the point where it's providing the bulk of the analysis.

2) Reduce and simplify the closing documents a mortgage customer is required to sign. Most refinance signings happen in the evening at the customer's home. If you had experienced a taxing day at work and a mobile notary arrived at your door with 50-100 documents for you to sign, what are the chances that you miss one of the crucial details in the loan's terms? For example, what if your loan officer had repeatedly assured you that the loan featured no penalty for pre-payment. What if the loan Note said the same thing, but buried in the stack of documents was an Addendum to the Note that established a 3-year pre-payment penalty? What are the chances that you would notice it? I can tell you from experience that the current system allows unscrupulous loan officers to manipulate borrowers. The three-day right of rescission on all refinance loans is supposed to treat this problem, but it's not working. Most of the homeowners that called me in the last few years to refinance out of pay-option ARM loans (negative amortization) didn't truly understand their loan and weren't aware of their pre-payment penalty (usually six-months of interest or up to 3% of the unpaid balance). Many of them had been told the loan was a 30 year fixed and had been enticed out of much more stable loans with the teaser payment. At one point I was receiving at least one of these types of calls on every working day.

I recommend eliminating the signing requirement on all closing documents aside from the Note, the Deed, the estimated settlement statement, and a one or two page summary document that states, in clear, simple sentences, the terms of the loan and how it functions. I know I'm leaving out a few other key docs, but basically everything else should be put to the side for review at the borrower's leisure during the rescission period.

George Soros submitted some intriguing commentary in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that we fashion our mortgage market like the one in Denmark. Perhaps one of the "maverick" presidential candidates would like to tackle that. From what I remember George W was friends with the guy who ran Ameriquest, arguably the most crooked large-scale home lending operation the country has ever seen. I don't ol' W will have much to offer as a fix.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97879-dont-blame-wall-street-at-least-not-completely?source=feed#comment-269105 269105 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:51:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70786-tuesday-s-action-sign-of-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-135002 135002
We're about one-fifth of the way through the fall-out from our latest misallocation of resources. We still have billions and billions of mortgage adjustments coming that, even if they don't break consumers, will severely crimp their disposable income over the next three years. Since the consumer led the last U.S. bull market, is it really time to start calling bottoms?

Slowly but surely it will be the most fundamentally sound companies adding real value that lead us out of this mess, not investment banks. ]]> Wed, 02 Apr 2008 03:09:13 -0400
We're about one-fifth of the way through the fall-out from our latest misallocation of resources. We still have billions and billions of mortgage adjustments coming that, even if they don't break consumers, will severely crimp their disposable income over the next three years. Since the consumer led the last U.S. bull market, is it really time to start calling bottoms?

Slowly but surely it will be the most fundamentally sound companies adding real value that lead us out of this mess, not investment banks. ]]>