Paul E. Meisel

Why Do People Make Market Forecasts?

"All that’s missing is Gary Glitter blasting away."

You date yourself......

The Truth About Mortgages

Almost everybody I know who owns a home with a mortgage itemizes -- the mortgage interest and property taxes put them over the limit before any other deductions. And my sample size is large (used to do tax preparation, still do some for friends, and have relatives who are or have been tax accountants).

When Quants Don't Think

I like your articles generally, Felix, but I get a little worried about taking insight from someone who uses a Billy Graham revival as a pickup opportunity. That's a little too contrarian.

Home Ownership: The Ideal That Refuses to Die

In a lot of markets, renting something suitable for a family with 3 teenagers and 3 dogs is just not even possible.....

An Involuntary Transaction: Why BAC + CFC May Never Close

I have not been following CFC in detail as that play looked just too risky to me. BAC, on the other hand, decided to take some risk on the shotgun marriage -- in my opinion, based on the thesis that there was some value to salvage, that Countrywide could continue as a national mortgage originator, and therefore gain BAC share in an area that it is below average in....

I haven't seen anything that permanently disables that thesis. CFC equity and debt holders are certainly going to take some losses, the question is how much.

'Renting' Stocks For Dividend-Dividend Capture

We played around with this in an investment class in graduate school 30 years ago. The correct class answer was that markets are efficient, but students were able to create examples similar to yours.

I wouldn't think much of it as a mainstream investment strategy, but if someone took 10% of their portfolio to do this as a hobby, that could make sense -- more as an intellectual exercise than as an investment strategy.

How Long Until the Housing Market Recovers?

I don't know about anybody else, I just got a 3% down mortgage, 3% seems very reasonable to me. 20% down is nice if you have the cash available, but it didn't make sense to me to borrow against the IRA just to put it in the down when I could borrow from the mortgage company instead.

Sentiment Is Slow to Change: A Basketball Lesson, Part I

Excellent.

Bubbles Aren't Bubbles - Or Are They?

Ned -- you are right, and "efficient markets" are only somewhat efficient. On average, overall, they always correct, but how wrong are they, for how long? Anyone who understands statistical thinking can allow for error... now we are just talking about how much, like that famous woman of negotiable virtue.

Risk Management Lessons from Bear Stearns

This suggests to me that the credit rating agencies have less utility than heretofore thought.