Vox Rationalis

3G iPhone Impact on AT&T and Verizon

"So even when they hit the 10 million this trend will not stop for sometime..."

Actually, that trend is not a trend, but an event that has passed. You won't be able to buy an iPhone without signing up for service. Problem (from T's POV) solved.

"...trust me the Samsung Instinct, RIM and LG's new products are going to give a run for their money..."

I picked up a Sandisk Sansa a couple of weeks ago. It's a nice device; drag-and-drop, automatically arranges songs into menus based on tags, built-in FM tuner. And it has virtually no market share against the iPod. The iPhone has a cache that no other manufacturer will come lose to in the consumer market. The real test will be to see how much penetration into RIM's market AAPL can achieve.

"Also Sprint is very agressively offering its $99 plan that is way better than anything AT&T or Verizon has to offer..."

Well, sure - laggards often have lower prices. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't. In Apple's case, there have ALWAYS been lower priced options. PCs cost less than Macs. Zunes cost less than iPods. Wal-mart's online music store cost less than iTunes. What happens? Apple survives and thrives. Again and again and again.

Also, the average user doesn't pay close to $99/month. For many people, any plan that costs less is better. I'd sign up for the least expensive iPhone option, as would most cellphone users. AT&T currently averages $95 of recurring revenue from iPhone users - much more than their overall average.