Vox Rationalis

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

On Aug 12 11:23 AM Fred Voetsch wrote:

> First of all most of the people who were bearish also missed losing
> 55% of their portfolio up until March (still being ahead by 35%)
> and most that I know, including me, caugh this rally early and only
> got out after a 20% or more runup.

Oh, really? On March 9, you held a double-short position in the market via SDS (seekingalpha.com/artic...). On May 3, you still held SDS (seekingalpha.com/artic...). On June 15, you STILL held SDS (seekingalpha.com/autho...).

Between March 9 and June 15, SDS lost 51% of its value, and the S&P 500 gained about 35.75%. When, precisely, did you "catch this rally"? I mean, you were short the market -- double-short the market -- on the day it reached 666 and apparently didn't sell, since you thought "the market is overbought and weakening" on May 3.

Perhaps the SDS was a market hedge and you made more on other holdings than you lost on SDS. But to characterize this as "catching the rally" is complete hogwash.

A Critical Day for Commodities: Wheat, Aluminum and Copper

The CU chart is astonishing. I wouldn't be surprised if it went below a dollar, though looking out at the end of this recession I'd be surprised if it didn't recover to something close to $3.