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  • Apple: A New Era Begins, What Will Happen To Its Earnings? [View article]
    You may be too conservative on the margins for the older phones. Tooling has been fully amortized, component production is well down the learning curve, and manufacturing is probably highly efficient and stable. Gross margins, even at lower prices may be significantly above the 35% level. Just a thought.
    Aug 23 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mar. ISM Manufacturing Index: 51.3 vs. 54.0 consensus and 54.2 prior. [View news story]
    Go to the source of the report. Read it yourself. It is anything but pessimistic. In fact, it is upbeat. LIsten too much to the "Talking Heads" and you will throw yourselves into a permanent funk!

    The ISM report's URL:
    Apr 1 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Inc: A Quick Analysis [View article]
    Enjoyed the article. You applied excellent common sense. All too often, common sense gets left behind in the analysis.

    Hope to see you writing more.
    Mar 11 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Calculate Rayonier's Intrinsic Value [View article]
    One of the more sensible valuation models I have seen. Thank you!
    Mar 6 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Coach For Now [View article]
    It is possible that COH is on the ropes. An important question is whether the core COH consumers are being converted to KORS consumers. That would suggest the existing franchise is being undermined. As well, it is important that COH catches a meaningful share of non-Coach consumers to generate revenue growth, and apparently that did not happen in the last quarter when US sss declined 2%. But one data point does not indicate a trend. Three quarters ago COH's outlet stores misfired by not couponing aggressively. When COH's outlets went back to their couponing strategy, customers responded and the outlet store sales bounced back. So, in my view, it is just too early to say whether COH is the new Nokia.
    Feb 26 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach (COH) announces a multi-year succession plan which will see Victor Luis come on as CEO in January 2014 to replace Lew Frankfort. The retailer is coming off of a lackluster holiday season which has been a bitter pill for investors to swallow with rival Michael Kors soaring. Last 90 days: KORS +20% vs. COH -9.9% [View news story]
    Lew Frankfort has done an outstanding job building up one of America's finest brands One lackluster quarter in the US (2% same store sales growth against a tough 8% the prevous year) does nothing to dent the solid reputation he deserves in the annals of American corporate history. Victor Luis will have a tough act to follow. I am glad to know tht Mr. Frankfort will remain on as Executive Chairman after the CEO change.
    Feb 14 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Graham (GHM): FQ3 EPS of $0.3 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $25.6M (+5.4% Y/Y) misses by $3.12M. (PR[View news story]
    This is not a company whose revenues and earnings can be predicted quarter to quarter. It is a thematic investment in the re-emergence of the American refining and petrochemical industry.
    Feb 4 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
    The issue: what should one pay for Apple given these assumptions? The company can still generate $20 billion free cash flow with low single digit growth and margins on a par with Samsung's. That's far less than the $30+ billion recently, but it is not "chump change". With $136 billion in cash and the ability to generate all that free cash flow, run this through a discounted free cash flow model and a $530+ intrinsic value emerges. Of course stocks trade around their intrinsic value based on market sentiment and other factors. My view? Based on the information we have today, the shares could trade over the next 12-18 months between $450 and $600. So downside should be limited and the upside very acceptable.
    Feb 4 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment