cos1000

October Auto Sales Look Positive for Sirius XM

pell.... how many times your ignorance.... wow..


On Nov 04 04:04 PM Pell wrote:

> Last time I comment on between the hedges to show his (And I have
> to say the word) Stupidity!
>
> AIG R/S changed the price to about $17 to $20 I can't quite remember
> exactly it could have been $13.
>
> BUT IT IS TRADING TODAY AT $36.
>
> THATS IT FOR YOU YOUR ARE DONE I WILL NO LONGER COMMENT ON ANYMORE
> OF YOUR POSTS.

Wall Street Takes a 'Wait and See' Attitude Towards Sirius XM

Johnny.... the math on the Dec 09 debt is fairly clear. The pushed 10% Bondholders out to 2011 in February / March to the tune of $172M. The snuck in the announcement of $179M being paid with the June 30th Notes Sold. That is $351M of a $400M Dec bond obligation paid, leaving $49M outstanding. There is also a $34M convertible due that has a convert rate of .69/share.... That may convert no one knows yet. They also have the $1.7M that will be paid for in cash. The convertible debt may cause further dilution of 49M shares or take some of their cash of the table. So it will either be a hit of $84M in cash or $50M and more dilution.... both are within range of the company to handle.... no drama, just business.....
> due in dec for Shares,look it up,i;m not doing it for you..they did
> FEB and dec bonds for shares exchanges before Liberty deal came along,only
> money due is 33mil and 1.7 mil.easily taken out in cash on hand...

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

1more4me.... sorry should say..... and not the R/S Authority

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

"Okay I may have offended you but I still believe there will too much other bad news (twisted news) during that time which may cool the iron even though the sword may be sharper."

Pell..... Not at all offended at all.... just not buying all the "cliches" and "metaphors"..... Between Irons being Hot, Twisted News, and Sharper Swords, I have not lost sight of the original debate.... I have given specific reasons why not to do a r/s, and when I think one would be appropriate to.... not offended or emotional about the discussion just do not agree with you.. or Brandon's take for that matter...


"1more4me".....
Check the 8K filing, April 29th... Yahoo, Edgar Online, SIRI. This filing and the R/S Authority was put into place to protect as a "poison pill" to prevent any change in Control or Ownership without the Authority of SXM's Board of Directors.

Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
"On April 28, 2009, our Board of Directors (the “Board”) adopted a rights plan to protect against limitations on our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax benefits (the “NOLs”) to reduce potential future federal income tax obligations. "

"The Rights Plan is intended to act as a deterrent to any person or group (an “Acquiring Person”) acquiring 4.9% or more of our outstanding common stock (assuming for purposes of this calculation that all of our outstanding convertible preferred stock is converted into common stock) without the approval of our Board."

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

Wow Pell..... so now.....

Missing Your Point = I Respectfully Disagree

"Cos you seem to be very text book intelligent but need to use a little more sense. This stock needs to be on the radar of all investors not just retail."

Again, maybe I'm missing your point but, with 3.8B shares issued, top 5 in Short Interest, and with every media hound on the Internet using is SIRI symbol to increase their per click traffic.... I think we have there attention... This is about the R/S. A Q3 r/s on that news may have the Iron only "Luke Warm" at best.... On News of Profit in 4Q and refinancing Toxic Debt, a point you seem to keep missing, will have the "Iron, Red Hot" in your century old analogy.

On Oct 13 01:15 PM Pell wrote:

> Sorry again COS you miss the point. We all know institution money can buy any stock with any value. The problem is most large institutions do not wish to waste expensive resources like their employees researching stock of that value that do not pay dividends. Large institutions are not day traders either. It's pretty simple. Cos you seem to be very text book intelligent but need to use a little more sense. This stock needs to be on the radar of all investors not just retail.
> The r/s will be a good thing followed buy continued earnings. But
> always "strike when the iron is hot"! Know that theory has held for
> centuries.

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

Money poured into this again..... is not the issue. I too have poured money in. I could care less about institutional investors at this time. There is nothing stopping International Retail Investors or for that matter Institutions from buying in to this Company right now and don't quote me how they can't buy any stock under a $5, or $3, because it is irrelevant. Most can and do. Go check the maffais.com report if you are wondering who. You can question motives all you want but, the debate with me has been about when not whether or not an r/s should occur... Don't pull the deflecting BS with me about motives... been here and around a long time... You'll need to do better than that to convince me.....


On Oct 13 12:54 PM Pell wrote:

> I love this stock and have poured a lot of my money into it. SiriusXM's
> stock has to hit $1 and sustain for 30 consecutive days. We all know
> that there are many investors who are not long and will take the
> profit the first day this stock hits $1. This stock is still a great
> investment but may only be this affordable for a period of time.
> Yes it will go over a $1 all by itself but it needs investors to
> maintain that value.
>
> I am telling all of you, SRIUS' best move is to use the first bit
> of good news to its advantage. This will not hurt you long positions,
> nor will the r/s. We need to get the attention of the large investors
> both internationally and institutionally and at a $1 a share with
> 3.9 Billion shares outstanding that will never happen. Never happen!
>
>
> So we need to sit back and hope as we all are predicting the 3Q numbers
> are good. Then we need to have a r/s taking more than 3 billion shares
> off the market. If profitability happens in 4Q and into 2011 we may
> see a 2 to 1 in our favor.
>
> I am starting to think that some of the positive SiriusXM posters
> here may have alternative motives. The US stock market will only
> have a short period to be extremely attractive to the international
> investor due to a weak US $. SiriusXM needs to capitalize on the
> first chance of good news. That is how the game is played. If they
> do not do the r/s after the first wave of good news they risk everything
> and that is our money.

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

"Your supposition about Q1 of 2010 and having to do the R/S at that time, is only that." should read:

....at that time would be bad,

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

Taking the emotional view out is how to best invest in this company's stock. With 75% of the shareholders being retail investors, what do you think will happen if they were to announce a R/S now? There would be a major sell of based on emotion.... Why do you think there will be a sell of at $1? Because of Retail Investor emotion. Your supposition about Q1 of 2010 and having to do the R/S at that time, is only that. The facts are that the company's bottom line performance is improving and there is no reason to think that will end in the near future. In the final analysis of when to do the r/s, it should only be done, First in the best interest of ALL Investors, not just those elite few holding shares to short the company, and Second, only if required to avoid NASDAQ delisting, which at this point in time has not been established.

"If It Bleeds It Leads", is great for cable television, the newspapers, and the "bazillion" web bloggers out there but, in the Board Room, sound fundamentals and the reality of the company's performance is what drives sound financial management.... In the end that is what will determine the Company's Stock Price... no some emotional and subjective view that depicts the "news" as favorable at this time. Go look up the News at this time and show me one favorable article in print to support your position. Headline in the media the day after the R/S: " Sirius Xm Radio Fails to Bring SP Over a Buck: R/S Only Hope At This Time" or "Investors Lose Again On Sirius Xm: Company Executes R/S To Avoid Delisting"..... What emotion will those headlines draw..??


On Oct 13 12:21 PM Pell wrote:

> Ok Cos but you are taking the emotional view out and media view out
> of the mix. If it bleeds it leads and waiting to 4Q is too close.
> Just think of all the bads new around that time. I hear it now, "poor
> xmas sales" unemployment hits 10, 2010 and we are still not out of
> recession and SIRIXM has a March 2010 delisting date because they
> couldn't hold the $1 share rice for 30 days.
>
> Although all those headlines could be twisted crap it is still headlines.
> XMas sales will be better but than last year but still below the
> norm that's how it will be reported, unemployment will hit 10 but
> guess what we all know that and yes it will be blown out of proportion,
> recession is still here but guess what it takes time but again that's
> not how it will be reported. And finally yes SIRIXM does have until
> Sept 2010 technically and although it did hit a $1 prior it was unable
> to maintain because there were huge profit taking from investors
> and that fact that they are now reporting good EBITDA will be lost
> in the mix. Why would they roll the dice otherwise? Take advantage
> of good news is the smart play.
>
> BUY BUY while we can afford. The split will happen on the first good
> news.

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

some things are just better off "dead".... not much insight here from what I can see...


On Oct 13 11:44 AM dead elvis wrote:

> Good Lord - whatever- Even Mel doesnt know what you just wrote<br/>The
> putz ceo of enron didnt even know what zipcode the company was in.
> Do you really think that this Mel guy , this elder cigar smoking
> over tanned individual is knowledgable? No is the answer.
>
> Regardless of all that..stuff-The fundamentals of the company have
> been lost
>
> The premise- if you build it they will come- is a dead isssue
>
> The company is floating on their product at best.
>
> The questions during conference calls are lame and dont allow Mel
> to really state future guidance.
>
> So once again- just dumb- or dumb like fox?

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

Pell, no one can disagree that fewer shares are better..
Do not hang your hat on the third quarter just yet being the "Good News" your looking for. It is also a good thing that those who underwrite refinancing do not listen to the BS media to make their decisions... February would be a better time to announce an r/s with the refinancing of this debt.... The Q4 numbers will not have one time debt restructuring charges in them and growth to the top line revenue and subscriber numbers will be much better... To do it now, without the Q4 being realized and reported is bad management of this company's market capitalization. It takes risk to the SP way beyond what is needed at this point in time.... I am not buying it at this time..... I respectfully disagree with your timing on this issue...

On Oct 13 11:53 AM Pell wrote:

> Great points Cos but again there are way too many shares outstanding.
> There has to be a mid range solution prior to February 2010. Thats
> why I'm looking for SiriusXM to take advantage of good news from
> what we all hope is a 3Q income of -$.01 to + $.01. Waiting for negative
> press to those who do not understand the delisting info is a bad
> move. They need to act on good news not bad. The 2014 Bond Debt you
> refer may be easier to refi on good news not a looming bad news date.
> The reverse will happen when the good news comes first. Sometimes
> a lil common sense goes with investing. Your facts and delivery are
> fantastic but never negotiate with your back against the wall, Sirius
> will negotiate when they finally show good news. And that will be
> 3Q.
>
> And again fewer shares is a good thing. Sirius Long

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

The R/S is only advised after the Balance Sheet undergoes further restructuring, returning these lent shares back to the company, and attaining positive and strong Q over Q EBITDA. The returning of lent shares as outlined in my earlier posts also provides reverse dilution or a type of “share buy back” without paying for the shares. They just need to refinance the Bonds and pay them off in full. Other share buy back programs are prohibited because of “covenants” contained in other Note Agreements and can only be executed when all of these other debt issues are resolved….
In addition, understanding that these shares are not currently used in Company GAAP measurements such as EPS, but could be if interpretations of current reporting requirements change, is even more reason to remove them from the marketplace IMO…. Leaving these shares on the market will invite these "qualified entities", which are never you and me as Retail Investors, to Short the stock without any restraint, if the R/S is executed now.

Once this Debt is Removed, and the other Q over Q operating requirements have been achieved, giving the Company good momentum going into the R/S, I could fully endorse the action. Just in case anyone is listening or cares from the Company.......

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

For the purpose of providing some background to this "TOXIC Debt", information can be found by looking at the company's "The Share Lending Agreement”… Filings were made with the SEC in Aug. 2008, and reported in the Q3 reporting in the 10Q, in Nov. 2008. It was entered into with Morgan Stanley and UBS, London Branch as underwriters of the 2014, 7% Convertible Notes, for $550M. Two groups of shares were granted by Sirius so that the XM debt could be sold at the time of the merge. Xm Stock no longer existed, and Sirius Stock was on the Reg Sho list, so shares were scarce to borrow…. Convertible bonds come with the Bondholders “Shorting” the shares as a hedge and the first lot of 185M were lent for this purpose… once covered at any point in time by Bond Holders they are still available for the the purpose of shorting the equity… The second lot of 74M was more of an incentive, imo, to the underwriters for doing the deal, and were not tied to any Notes… they can be used to short the stock at any time… The price of all of these shares were “marked” at $1.50, and thus the precipitous drop after the merge in share price….. Its all in the Filings of Aug 2008…

When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split?

Brandon, Great article and it brings to the forefront the discussion of a R/S…. Too many “investors”, and with SIRI I use that term lightly, look at companies who implement this measure just prior to closing their doors and allow that fear to guide them. That is not the case for this company as you have pointed out and many of us know…

Unfortunately that is as much as we can agree on this point, because timing and balance sheet restructuring still have to take place, before a position of strength is realized going into the reverse split. The amount of outstanding shares really is irrelevant to the company’s capitalization or any investment house’s ability to invest in the company… That is roughly Mel’s stated opinion in an interview with David Faber, when asked about the r/s. Your quote about doing what is in the best interest of the shareholder is from the Annual Meeting legal speak and enforceable, when we all approved the r/s and extended its authority until June 2010.

Mel not the Board’s, integrity is on the line with his spoken, and committed to words, that the r/s would be used to avoid NASDAQ delisting. You and I know with that authority place, March 2010, is a technicality because a plan is already in place to get an additional 180 day extension from NASDAQ, bringing the “Drop Dead” date to September 2010, for $1 status and compliance. All that is needed is to approve a further authority extension at the May 2010, share holders meeting or if necessary accelerate the annual meeting to Feb 2010 to authority that goes beyond the Sept 2010, date.

Regardless of all that is known about the delisting technicalities, the company CANNOT execute a reverse split until they restructure the 2014 Bonds with 263M lent shares for the purpose of Shorting the company’s stock. I keep getting ignored on this point, but will not go away. Anyone who understand the fundamentals of this company cannot possibly support a R/S when the company has agreement out there for “Qualified Entities” to borrow shares Exlusively for the purpose of shorting the stock. So Please spare the “its a good time to do this because the fundamentals and financial results are positive” argument. The stock will tank before r/s, and in this case with your “Lowest SI” in recent history scenario, no need for shorts to cover before the split. So we will have REETs bailing, selling into the remaining shorts hands, and shorts with legally borrowed shares for the company, taking it down after the split.

Refinance this debt with decent terms, 9-11%, Senior Notes, and announce it when the company has very strong EBITDA, say Feb 2010, Q4 & 10K, and I am fully supportive of the R/S and will hold all the way through it and might even by some shares going into it taking advantage of all the “weak hands” selling out…. Would probably buy some “Put” insurance, but all would be good on the other side, IMO…
UN:D [1.7.0_948]

$2 Royalty Pass Along Is 'Sirius'ly Good Idea

This author has taken the time to present very useful information. Wow, in these days where rumors and half truths put on their lipstick and go out into the world as News, we have a rare breath of fresh air here. An author that can do the math and type too, while credit to this Company's Management for good financial sense.

The Motley Fool and TheStreet.com won't pick up a good piece of work like this, nor will the sinking ship previously admired and known as The Wall Street Journal. These hack organizations are to busy scrambling for ad and per click revenue to print facts, practically giving away their "so called" premium subscription services to uninformed consumers.

Its time for a change in who the Retail Investor looks to for real news and information on companies that their hard earned dollars are invested in. Promoting authors such as Jeffrey Mettel here is a good start. Keep up the good work and bring us the numbers good or bad.

Would TheStreet.com Be Worth More Without Jim Cramer?

I don't really understand how you can call these domain names "off balance sheet assets". They are part of the "Goodwill" and "Other Intangible Assets" on the company's balance sheet. With the last to quarters reported, Q4 2008, and Q1 2009, these "Assets" already suffered an Interim Evaluation Impairment Charge.... Bringing the Q4 quarter from $53.6M to a Q1, 2009 reported value of $30.4M. Although I realize that the domain names may still be worth something.... just saying there is definitely a problem with the current business model, in these dollar conscious times....