cos1000

Will All Shipping Companies Suffer Equally?

vatexes645

Good point. FRO only has 8 vessels out of their 76 that are capable of transporting ore, O/B/O types, 10.5% of their fleet. SFL has 8 of their vessels being O/B/O types and only 1 dedicated Dry Bulk vessel, of their 58 vessel fleet or the potential for 15.5% of their business effected by dry bulk rates. Using the happenings of the BDI, BPI, or BCI to explain the quarterly results of these companies is only as effective as the percentage of their business participating in this type of transport IMHO. Reporting on the effect of the oil transport industry for both of these companies would seem to be more meaningful, with dry bulk sprinkled in as a punctuation mark of the economic downturn for this sector in general..

Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in

Market Bottom?? The Bottom, wherever that might be this time around, keeps being put off by artificial means. The government stimulus is just an attempt to stave off a complete melt down in the world financial markets. Government debt guarantees, the printing of money, all to support derivative financial instruments that have nothing to do with the underlying economy. All of these Credit Default Obligations that are off book, will need to be brought on to these companies' books in the upcoming year. That combined with the Commercial RE market, yet to be hit with defaults and foreclosures, bringing further job losses and bankruptcies still not yet reported, makes trying to predict a bottom in the stock market foolish at best. For traders temporary tops and bottoms are opportunities to make money, but for those trying to do business in this environment the waters are still treacherous. A buy and hold attitude in this environment will just was away any wealth a long term investor might have left. Moving to insured deposits and precious metals is more appealing here, preserving capital and taking advantage of fiat currency inflation over the next 12 -18 months.

Other than bail out money from the government and the lowering of interest rates, nothing has really occurred to unwind the Residential RE market to a point of stabilization represented by flat values and moderate sales. With Commercial RE, paper is more short term and will be called in to reset over the next 12-18 months, with much tighter requirements. Foreclosures and bankruptcies in this sector will cause a new round of heartaches. With store closings(HD), and retail bankruptcies (Circuit City), not only Mall, but Office Building occupancy and revenues will be under pressure.

I just can't see anyone calling a bottom after an 18% run, given all that is known and unknown about this historic economic event yet. I cannot trust the leadership that sat by watching all this develop, be the same experts that now will tell us that it is all OK now. I don't fault the author for being hopeful, but looking at the charts will show that we just came off a lower bottom and haven't even broke through the 13DMA yet to establish a higher top. My take is that we will not.

Tanker Stocks: Bargains Here?

I've got to tell you that finding good information on the variety of shipping models out their is tough to do, ie, oil shippers, vs dry bulk, vs containers. So as a new investor to this industry (NM), only a 1000 shares to learn my lesson, I appreciate any article that gets the conversation going.

Just listening here to the variety of knowledge and varied experiences is helpful, (although some may be bored). So Let the guy give his view and let me continue to listen to you guys/gals tear him up. It's all relative to wherever your at in the learning curve.

I'm more into "dry bulk" because you have to pay the shipping if you need the "goods", and less liability for on/off shore mishaps. DRYS, NM, DSX are of interest