cos1000

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

163888

For the first time in a very long time...., with much dismay I might be joining you at the car wash my friend..... Haven't had to report for duty in a long, long time... My small business doing contracting and some high end construction has gotten me through.... Cash flow is killing me and I never thought I would have to carry for over 15 months. The DSX yields are just a indicator of more problems to come. When these guys pull the dividend in there are huge problems ahead. Their going to have to live on reserves ( as I have ), and they run out..... Oh well, who thought that a very smart Democrat from Illinois would be the one to have to pull us out of this???? The good thing is we know we can do whatever it takes to get back in the game and keep the home front strong. That's that military training talking.... old but still strong.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

s162

They have been quiet about how but, not that they will take out the Feb 09 debt. Maybe a little talk on the street that their looking to take out more than Feb will make staying short a nervous place to be. At these levels I agree with you that if the shorts lock in profits and the autos are loaned (which Bush said they would do), I think your scenario of a push between now and the meeting and the meeting and the end of the year with some news is completely possible. As I said above though it is a gamble and my positions are locked in for a front row seat to see the drama play out. Good luck and keep in touch.....

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

S162

this is all I have on Evercore:

The company offers strategic and tactical advice to public and private companies; advises clients that are contemplating the sale of certain businesses, assets, or their company; provides advice for special committees and boards of directors; and offers financial advice and investment banking services to companies in financial transition, as well as to creditors, shareholders, and potential acquirers, as well as serves as an independent and objective adviso...

I don't really know. I haven't heard of them being used before this and they do provide a wide range of services to companies public and private. I read that article yesterday and became more frustrated with Harlieb's quote on P2 , last paragraph. This is the kind of consequences, bad PR, that comes from the Save Sirius group in their noble intentions (sarcasm). Its just not good for shareholders.

Howard is posturing around this Bubba thing is my guess. He is a businessmen before all else..... Instead of helping the pps and earning his outrageous contract price, his timing is to come out at this time and rumor or announce his retirement. Its just more of why I just don't like the guy. Narcissism runs deep with him and that just turns me off. The company needs to be silent and let him do all the talking so that it is not perceived as a conversation with management. IMHO.

Like you said ........ Let the Drama Begin....

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Killerkaul,

Happy Birthday to you and a prosperous future!!!!!

As far as adding to your position before the meeting ...... its a spin of the wheel, roll of the dice, luck of the draw type of move write now.. There are a lot of places to put money in the market on good timing with this volatility. Sirius is a big ? right now.....

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

FoolInHisMoney

Not a problem at all... I was just giving more clarity to what I believe is a very confusing reporting for the company. In Q3 because of huge Goodwill right down, the addition of merger costs, and the adding of XM's two months of operations, there isn't any YOY comparison available. As you know, when their is confusion in the numbers, the analysts will take the company's numbers down and, in this case, accentuate that confusion as even more negative than they are. In reading articles from non supporters of this business' model, you can see how picking and choosing numbers to further their agenda of bashing the company has been used. I just wanted to point out that this company has been on the right track for reducing costs and adding revenue before the merger and it is continuing to do so now.
They have just recently renegotiated with MLB to get the Home Plate channel included in the B of B for Sirius subscribers, as reported by Tyler Savery, on his website Siriusbuzz.com this morning. The details of the $120M in escrow are unknown right now, but the extra dollars from Sirius subs to pick up MLB will be another cash driver. If they can cut in half the escrow required that will also be a big deal.

At the merge, Sirius used $200M in COH to pay some of its debt that was due in May 08 and June 08. It is possible that the $210M or a good part of it, say half, will be taken out. The May 09 debt only needs to be renegotiated with the banks and then extended. The Dec 09 debt doesn't have to be dealt with at all right now. The upcoming dilution and RS could be put off from being used to pay down any of its debt until after the second half of the year, when operations and the automaker situation have more clarity. Building cash through excellent operational management, while building customer goodwill, will be important over the next 6-8 months.

HD Radio Inclusion Debate Heats Up

sorry that's Orbitcast.com

HD Radio Inclusion Debate Heats Up

Here is an interesting update reported by Orbicast.com:

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) and Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA) today called on FCC Chairman Kevin Martin to put the agency's actions on hold unless they are urgent or required by law.

Rockefeller's and Waxman's committees both have jurisdiction over the FCC.
The two lawmakers said the FCC should focus on completing the broadcast digital TV transition next February, but not on unrelated matters - particularly any controversial issues that the Obama administration will want to review.

The agency would have to halt consideration of most items before it, and that very well could include items that would be covered during the FCC's December 18 meeting.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Imaze

I myself will not be attending the annual meeting. My votes have been cast and my fate will be determined by the outcome and decisions on how to use the authority given.

As much as I agree that Goldman's Weinke, and finally BAC (Merrill's ) analyst took the stock down, I really believe they were just the weather men reporting on the problem, not much analysis and a lot of insider information available. Currently the amount of Common Shares held Short is around 263M, as reported by s162 above, and this link:

www.shortsqueeze.com/?...

That's almost the exact number of shares that were lent on July 28th to assist in selling XM's convertible notes. This is what took the price of the stock down along with all of the other financial events and auto make melt down news. As far as Shorting the stock goes it is perfectly legal and under normal circumstances when backed up with located and acquired shares helps to set a good balance to company's equity values. IMHO. So short away with good conscience knowing that downside gains are limited by $0 and the upside losses are unlimited. As with all investment strategies their is risk and shorting stocks is no different. Good Luck and enjoy. Report back on the meeting if your attend.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

FoolInHisMoney

Read your post above and I noticed a couple things that I think you might be overlooking. The company itself does have a relatively low COH as reported in the 3Q, but it is not stagnant in its ability to generate cash moving forward. The 3Q results glazed over a very respectable reduction in expenses and increase in revenue with several other items highlighting the report. The fact that the company took a Goodwill Charge of $4,751M and an added $39M in Depreciation, for a total One Time of $4.79 B in the quarter, due to a re-assessment from to the merger, masked an otherwise remarkable 3Q and 9 month performance. That's also not including legal and other related merger costs that were thrown in for good measure. That still left them with $359M of COH. Removing the mask of the reassessed expenses showed the following:

Total Rev. 2008 (9 months).................. $1,042 M
Total Rev. 2007 (9 months).................. $ 672 M

Ttl Op Exp '08 (9 months).................. $1,235 M (minus G.W.)
Ttl Op Exp '07 (9 months).................. $1,036 M

Net Loss 2008 (9 months).................. 194 M)
Net Loss 2007 (9 months).................. 363 M)

These numbers in the third quarter of 2008 also include 2 months of XM's expenses and revenues since the merger. It is clear to see that even without the merger, Sirius was reducing expenses from operations while increasing revenues. 3Q numbers are very hard to read as presented because they include one time merger charges, goodwill write down and added depreciation write down for 2 months of XM assetts. They also include the two months of XM rev and exp info that make YOY #s difficult to extrapolate. You have to admit that they look good reducing their Net Loss by 169M in 9 months YOY, and still showing a decent COH moving forward. Their net loss from 9 months of operations is 54% of their COH of 359M. This is remarkable considering the merger synergies were not even close to being fully in place on Sept 30th when the quarter ended. I would expect that even with the slow down in 4Q which was, puzzlingly reported by Mel in the 3Q Conference Call and projections going forward, that COH will grow. In addition, 2009 Revenue projections for the company, on the high side, are $2.7B or $675M per quarter. I am not that optimistic, so I used $2.2B or 550M per quarter. By the way don't forget the 4Q revenue 2008 that is being taken in by Best of Both, an addition $48 / yr / sub and an automatic subscription reset (with prepay). That's cash not yet in the numbers. Add these numbers to your application for financing, along with an excellent credit payment history and partners who already own your debt, 350M in May and 400M in Dec 2009, might be willing to extend rather than expire the May credit facility and renegotiate the Dec 2009, 10% Converts due to mature. (where are you going to get 10% as an equity holder with treasuries at a negative net return).

I do not want to be a pumper here because that is not what anyone needs. As shareholders we have all, on paper, lost tons of equity in this company. With further dilution and a RS authorization at hand, it is inappropriate to be optimistic at this time. We as a board of concerned shareholders have not looked at the numbers of this company in a while and I know there will be plenty of time after the meeting to do this. This company is not now or has it been in the past headed for Bankruptcy IMHO. The numbers and improvements in operational costs have been on target in spite of the Perfect Storm. I still feel that for some investor, at some time, this company will be a profit making, cash generating machine. Unfortunately the question at hand is will current shareholders join in that success.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

relmor

Hope things are well my friend... You and I are more aligned as is Bababooie to the down side as a result of deleveraging and inadequate long term government intervention. Pumping the liquidity in put some air in the parachute on the way down, but down through deleveraging and mark to market accounting is still happening. Intervention on these items are not effective.... Its what I was referring to above @ 11:06 am on Friday. Oh well Good luck and Happy trading.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

markbmark

You have lost sight of your reason for investing in this company. Your familiarity in speaking of Mel makes your motives sound personal.

I feel the disappointment of a bad investment decision, and foolish in my lack of knowledge regarding the impact of the type of XM debt taken onto the company's books at merge. The thing is, it was my decision to stay in, rather than cut my losses and get out in August. You and others have simply lost objectivity and refuse to take responsibility for your bad investment decision. Your statement of preferring Bankruptcy is outrageous and a further sign of your personal attachment to this company's failings. Bankruptcy would only serve the company in eliminating or restructuring it's debt, while most likely wiping out the rest of us common shareholders. It would accomplish exactly what you say you and your group are trying to avoid. You continue to post half truths about the events leading us to where we are now, as has been pointed out to you before. Yet you continue.

You would have more credibility if you would look to your own decision making and focus less on everyone else. The recent cancellation of your scheduled hearing, while not an outright dismissal, is certainly a sign of the weakness of your evidence. I respect your right to try and wish you luck with your hardships, but I cannot support your motives.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

s162
resadmin.uah.edu/aama/...

If you want to understand why Shelby is so against the bailout check out this organization in Alabama, and three key members who provide almost 900 M sq ft (.9 B sq ft), of Manufacturing of autos in his fair state. Honda, Hyundai, and Mercedes Benz come to mind.

163888
Your probably right but, failing that kind of transparency, this stock isn't going anywhere fast.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

s162, 163888, mogami_99, wcorowitz

Most of us agree that the stock price is lower than any had expected. There are a number of external reasons as outlined over the last few weeks and months in the general economy and availability of credit, for its decimation. With 1.1 B in debt due in 2009, I think that we can all agree the uncertainty about that debt's financing, the proposed dilution and RS, distrust in current management's intentions, and the automotive industry's future, are the direct influences on the current SP because of the long shadow these unknowns cast on the company's survivability.

Uncertainty is by far the biggest enemy of all company's, and Sirius is no different. On next Thursday, Dec. 18th, Mel and the management team of Sirius have a shot at bringing certainty to some of these questions. If they do not use this opportunity to build investor confidence by stating their solution to the debt issues through dilution, this stock will trade as though Bankruptcy is inevitable. The time for keeping investors in the dark will be over. Simply winning the authority to dilute shares and RS without an announcement of a concrete plan will take this stock to .05. The rush to get out will give the shorts all they need to solidify their positions. I believe that it will come down to the annual meeting. A reaffirmation of Mel and the Board's commitment to the common shareholder, or a continuation of the exploitation of shareholder loyalty. IMHO. I am betting (gambling and I hate to do this with an investment), the Mel will send the shorts scrambling with solid performance announcements.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

163888

I completely agree with your assessment of the debt needing to be paid off sometime and shares is better than cash. Technically the debt should be considered in establishing SP anyways and IMO, the Street is already pricing it in.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

163888

I beg to differ. The credit lines in May 09, are a base of $250 Mil and an extension of that line of $100M totaling $350M in bank lines and the December 09 debt is the old 1.75% Exchangeable Notes that were renegotiated at the time of the merger with holders to 10% and total $400M.

The important difference other than the totals as you know, is that May 09 is Bank Credit due to expire and the Dec 09 is Exchangeable (Convertible) Notes maturing.