cos1000

RBC, Barclays Weigh In on Sirius

Hey guys, an interesting discussion. OldDruid, in order to borrow shares from yourself you do have to maintain a long position in the equity that your borrowing. I found the prospect intriguing, so I ran some round numbers to highlight the effect of maintaining a long position while borrowing shares to short, closing the short position and then, either selling or maintaining those closed shares (bought) as a new long position.

Lets say you start off with 50K shares, and the current sp is .15 on your long position. To take a short position without new cash, sell half your shares in the long, 25K shares. You now have $3.75K and 25K shares long. You borrow your remaining shares to short the equity, without any cash out other than fees. Your now Long 25K shares, Short 25K shares, and have $3.75K to close your short position. In this situation, if the stock goes down you start making money on your short and losing on your long, penny for penny. When it gets to .10 cents you buy 25K shares for $2.5K and make $1.25K on your short position and are at a negative $1.25K on your long position, but holding. In actuality here you now own the same 50K Long at .125 / sh and have $1.25K in your account minus all fees.

Now this looks great in terms of using the short position to hedge against your long position when you think the equity is going down..... The problem is that if the equity goes up your hedge becomes a liability against your long position robbing you of any gains, and increasing your average cost per share in the end when you have to cover your short, wherever you wind up covering... Usually that is when the stock gets some good news forcing the shorts to cover.....

My take is that as a relatively small investor, taking one side of the trade or the other, is the best way to make money to add shares or whatever your goal may be. Borrowing shares from yourself, hedges you from losses and caps your gains, with the broker being the only one making money on transaction fees....

Now if your adding new money.... invested in the opposite direction of your initial investment.... your still hedging or capping your investment by holding both positions at the same time..... At least that is how I interpret the strategy....

Sirius-XM: John Malone's 'Tony Soprano' Economics

Imaze,
Just read through on of the best written post I've seen in a long while...... sounds like you have a sound handle on all of the company's potential yourself.... with a little help from your partner I am sure.... Thanks for the props...... good luck to you both..

Sirius-XM: John Malone's 'Tony Soprano' Economics

This reads like a "Tony Soprano Deal" because not only will John Malone end up with a large stake in the company, but he's charging Sirius-XM an interest rate of 15% in a zero interest rate.

What side of the table have you been sitting at lately, borrowing or lending. Where can you borrow at a zero interest rate? This is more than misleading its inaccurate... Why not look at what companies like GE and GS are paying their Preferred Investors lateley...

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

that their percent risk for default is improving, generally.... given recent interest in buying their debt .... what else could they say..... always after the fact never forward looking...


On Feb 13 06:41 PM Wolf Child wrote:

> Does it mean they were removed from a negative credit rating status
> or removed from
> credit watch but still has a negative outlook?

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

The May 09 facilities require that they maintain $75M COH. That's XM Holding's restriction. Other than the escrow for MLB of $120M, what are the other reserves?? 888's? Anyone?

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

I agree, and I said either earlier today of yesterday, they're all blending together now, that he is pushing all the right buttons to get the deal done for all of 2009 not just Feb.


On Feb 13 03:28 PM FoolNHisMoney wrote:

> Cos, I still think that they could/could have handled the Feb hurdle
> without help. The rest of the debt may still have been a problem,
> but sure as hell not just the Feb debt is enough to have forced BK.
> I think all this BK rumor is being intentionally release by none
> other than Mel to give himself a stronger negotiating position with
> the debt holders at this convenient time - i.e. he is using the Feb
> hurdle to leverage his bargaining abilities on the remaining debt.
>
>
>
> On Feb 13 03:13 PM cos1000 wrote:

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

or don't believe anything..... there is very little news reported if news is defined as factual information.... sources verified... direct quotes from parties directly involved.... Now its a game of leaks and manipulation, spin and subterfuge..... We are all left to do our own research, make our own decisions, and share what you can on places like here at SA, Siriusbuzz, and others..... Truth seekers are a valuable commodity........ OK, I'll get off my soap box..... sorry its just all very frustrating...

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

We need one more piece of good news before COB or else we'll probably just stick around here between .10 - .11

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

If not for the news of John Malone coming to the table, what result would we have today.....?? BK IMHO because Mel wouldn't hand the company over to Ergen.....

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

I agree and after Homer deflated took all the oxygen out of the room (as you said) with his analysis, all it left was what we had already on the table. Leaked info all week trying to throw everyone off and clean out the retail investor ...... while the big boys smoke cigars and play their cards.....


On Feb 13 02:58 PM Sirius Roadkill wrote:

> it's pretty unbelievable how close we were in our hypothetical discussion
> from last night
>
>
> On Feb 13 02:47 PM cos1000 wrote:

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

.1099 and its not even 3 pm yet.......... what are they gonna do??? This is a whole lot more interesting than Tuesday and Wednesday, and Fear was in the air...... people were saying by to each other ..... and Fear was in the air.

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

relmor, I get so few chances with this company......:), SRK and I talked about that trade last night. He asked what if at .10 and I said I a had a side bet of 15K at .064 and would take half off after it got to .12. After the discussion I put a limit sell at .11 and got taken out on the Dec 09 debt news. Fortunately it dropped back down.......

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

888's, SRK

What are you guys talking about......... I just woke up..... :)

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

I had a sell on the 7500 sh at .11. I didn't think it would get there until later and I got taken out. I bought 8900 back at .0925 and will hold taking the additional shares where ever it goes from here. Took the extra shares instead of the money given the news pending...... Our discussion last night had me put the limit order in at .11 instead of .12 so thinking these things out ahead of time really does help. 1400 sh is nothing here but where I first bout into this company it was a decent investment. Ah to be back at $2.70 a share........

Will John Malone Rescue Sirius XM?

I am looking for a run up right around 3 pm and on into the after hours..... not budging from the mid .09-.10 for now. The remaining shorts will close out if no news before close of business. Not enough volume in after hours for them to do it then. Any thoughts.?????