cos1000

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

s162

Our time frame is probably close to the same. I am looking for an announcement by the 1st week of Dec on financing. Its going to take some kind of news to move this stock price. I think the low volume, even today 32M is low, is a sign of news waiting to happen. Its like getting everyone on the plane ready to go, and now we're waiting for a weather delay. I'm giving management the benefit of the doubt, right now, but something has to be delivered before the annual meeting IMO.

To change topics, I am also concerned that we are not seeing very well executed marketing plans..... silence to the general public while marketing to existing customers. Seems like their letting this holiday season pass them by. I am also completely taken aback by the silence from the company in general after this merge. Cost cutting is great but their is a retail market that needs to be addressed. They have a great new portable product in the XMP3 and no one even knows about it.

All right I'm done and tomorrows another day....... have a good one.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

The bottom line is that so far Mel has not given anyone any reason to place confidence in him to act in Current Common Shareholders best interest IMHO. His recent failure to even mention the delisting rule change has not strengthened that condition. The upcoming proxy vote gained no special attention in his mind. I have been a supporter in the past, but he is making it difficult for me to continue.

People need to vote based on information on the ground and their comfort level with authorizing an unnecessary authority for an action, if abused, would harm them as shareholders. For me, if Mel and crew do not do something to build that confidence within the next couple weeks, I will be sitting on the sidelines anyways.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

holdon, s162

On Jan 16, 2009 the delisting requirement will end. With Sirius not having received a delisting notice, it was not formally in a compliance period. Compliance periods, as I have read and understand, are those 180 automatic compliance periods once notified, after 30 day noncompliance, and extension 180 day periods when granted. For Companies not in a compliance period the clock starts over starting on Jan. 19, 2009 (Monday) for 30 days, then a notice and 180 day compliance period begins, ending around Sept 19, 2009. The additional 180 days also means that Sirius would move from the Global Market to the Capital Market for this additional period. The link below is of the rule change as proposed.

www.nasdaq.com/about/S...

Holdon,

Based on this info, an emergency meeting would have to take place to give the company authorization for a RS to be included in a plan submitted to Nasdaq, requesting an additional 180 day extension. The company cannot submit it if its not authorized.

In a perfect world where Mel was trusted or shareholders had confidence, the company saving money by not having a Emergency Meeting, proxy mailing, and vote, would be prudent. In that case the RS would be a tool already granted and if not needed would expire on Dec 31, 2009.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

dayworker

I am in total agreement with your analysis that by including the newly authorized shares in the R/S and those extra shares diluted and authorized, can then be sold to pay debt. So 3.5 Bil shares additionally authorized becomes 70 M with a value of 12.50 / share in a 1 to 50 RS at $.25 /share.

The current authorized shares of 4.5B become 90M shares of which 3.5B (70M) are currently outstanding or restricted, leaving 1B (20M) left for dilution. Additionally, the current shareholders who are RS will need unrealistic SP values to recoup their losses after, creating all the current shareholder dissatisfaction with this plan.

I believe that if Mel acted on this plan, in this manner to pay debt, rather than avoid delisting as he has stated, that he should and probable would be indicted and thrown in jail. To date, this is not what he has said he wanted the RS authorization for.

In my opinion any RS used without a delisting notice from NASDAQ, and the use of the 180 day period to bring the stock price above a $1, would be evidence of this misrepresentation and possible Fraud, and for that matter, conspiracy to committ a whole lot of sh**t. Excuse my legal jargon, I am obviously not a lawyer.

My opinion about Mel’s management is that he needs to execute the business plan, while paying of the debt or at least improving debt conditions to the benefit not detriment of the shareholders.

The merger debt refinancing has me giving him one big strike against him and the proxy statement with these controversial requests gives him two. Any execution of the above described dilution-RS-sell shares to pay debt action would be strike 3 and time to lock him up. He still has a chance to hit it out of the park, but there isn’t much time and it needs to be done through hard work and efficient business plan execution.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

killerkaul,

Thanks for your sentiment. We're just trying to figure out the clues to this mystery that has become Sirius Xm. The stock can't move up with the rest of the market taking a bath... unfortunately patience is the only strategy left at this time...... unless you need to bail and at this point no one could blame anyone for that decision.....

siriusly depressed

Watson here...... wiping the smudge of my magnifying glass. Great analogy and exhaustion is a good way to describe the emotion. The tools available to the retail investor clearly outline the evidence pointing to the game being rigged against the retail investor. With the loosely defined regulation its clear that even their they are writing the rules that we play by. At this point I am in this stock to try and get some money back, and have the time put in here give me an education moving forward. Everyone is talking about a pop and short squeeze and they may be right, but my feeling is the stock price will only move on positive news, refinancing of debt and autos right now, and that may cause the pop. The catalyst will be the NEWs the result will be the short squeeze or pop up. My feeling only major positive events and positive targets from GS will move this stock over a $1.

s162

I haven't seen the latest from Sav Si group and frankly with the responses and bashing from their crew I haven't cared to follow them along. I see their posts on several boards and some of what they write about is relevant, but there is too little time in the day and too much drama for me to get involved. My filter for information is getting real tight at this point.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cygnus

Thanks for the info. That explains the problem with trying to determine the date of purchase from COShare and comparing price and volume charting. At best it is back looking trend information and helps to see who is on the bus.

Onthebackline

You or Sirius couldn't afford to pay me for the information I provide. I have been a long time Sirius Investor, and because of Stock Price, knows way more than he would like to know about the workings of this company. I personally enjoy the research and think the due diligence done here, has taught me an important lesson for other equities I am invested in and will invest in going forward. You on the other hand are an anonymous basher of others work and need to check your paranoia.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

s162

With all of the new purchases at this average price of $.59 , I can't reconcile the volume of shares that would have had to of been purchased on Sept 30th. Ameriprise 160M, T Row Price 84M, and others bring the volume over the volume way over what was recorded for those last days at this price. I can't figure it from what's reported. I like it better when I had the math wrong..... LOL

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

A few facts about the Loral 100M credit facility.

Loral Space & Communications
10Q Page 60

Liquidity & Capital Resources: Paragraph 3 & 4

SS/L has a $100 million undrawn commitment to Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. under an Amended and Restated Customer Credit Agreement, secured by the two satellites under construction and subject to a number of conditions set forth therein. (See Note 11 to the financial statements (I am adding that's on page 23, para 3 of the 10Q)). Were Sirius to meet all of these conditions and draw this commitment in full, Loral would be required to examine alternatives to preserve its liquidity, including the sale of any or all borrowings under this facility. Notwithstanding that the Sirius satellite collateral is pledged solely to SS/L, the sale of Sirius borrowings under this facility, given the current market value of Sirius unsecured debt, could be at discounts of 20% to 40% and result in SS/L incurring a significant loss. Over the next 12 months, Loral believes that it has adequate resources to operate its business in such an event.

Current economic conditions, including the credit crisis, have generated concerns regarding the ability of customers to make payments under satellite construction contracts with SS/L. Though most of our customers are substantial corporations for whom creditworthiness is generally very good, we have other customers who are either highly leveraged or are in the developmental stage and are not yet fully funded. Customers that are not fully funded or are facing near-term maturities on their existing debt present significant financing risk in today’s market. This financing risk could require them to delay payments or seek financial relief from SS/L. If customers fall behind or are unable to meet their payment obligations, SS/L’s liquidity will be adversely affected. As of September 30, 2008, customers that management believes may have significant financing risk accounted for billed and unbilled accounts

------ The 10Q of Loral does not state if any pre payments have been made, but that the $100 M facility with conditions met by Sirius, would be lent, but immediately resold on the debt market. Also that given the current rate agreement committed to by Loral to Sirius, a draw would cause a substantial loss on the credit market given Sirius' discounted debt condition to Loral on the resale of the debt.

I am not sure that having the manufacturer of your satellites not yet fully constructed or launched yet, be abused this way is a good idea. Currently, Loral has 127M in cash with around 27M restricted to meet other agreements to operate its business. The $100M facility, although committed to, would wipe Loral's cash which is why they would have to go to the debt markets and resell this debt agreement at a 20 - 40 % loss . The facility is viable but, to Loral's demise in the short run. A questionable business practice at best if used for anything but the satellite manufacture and launch IMHO

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

oops .... that's user friendly not family....

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cygnus

The Nasdaq institutional holdings breakdown is more user family in being able to format the report and sort the data out. Nasdaq is showing a doubling in ownership since July 1st and confirms that the biggest changes occur 45 days after the quarter closes which would have been last week for Q3.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

siriusly depressed

The deeper we dig the more generic the info seems to become. I have heard the 50% number thrown around but, when I get a quote on Sirius on Ameritrade or E*trade that % is much lower. The overview quote is at 22.8% on both for institutional ownership. I do know that in following this number on these sites, that it has doubled in last two weeks from 11%. As you say though, I am not sure of their source or how current the number is or why such a large disparity from nasdaq. As a trend fine, but I really want to be able to see large transaction data, and direction in more current time frames. Even End of the Week numbers would be helpful.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

FoolNhisMoney

An important point and your math is correct, sorry for the mix up and thanks for double checking. There isn't any one day that the share volume was at that price in the quarter reported. Even multi day purchases would have had to have been in the last days of Sept or a private sale.

In general mffais.com reports its results on MF based on changes from each company's share volume from the last time the company reported information using SEC 13F information and the equities (SIRI's) cusip identification number. Further looking at the Ameriprise transaction, as
reported in mfais.com reveals last reporting Ameriprise had 6.35M shares and added 168.5M shares this reporting period taken off the 13F statement for now a total of 174.7M shares at an average price of $.57 cents / share. It would appear that not much more than that can be gleaned from these numbers. Dates of the purchases are not available, but as discussed above, at this price multiple purchases of shares over several days at the end of the quarter would have gotten them their. At best, without a company filing an mid quarter 13F, we are looking at quarterly changes in each company reports trend; add some, sold some, new position, sold position. For companies with comparisons available, we can also see how the fund has performed since a position was taken, in the mffais column all the way to the right. Changes in mffais reporting from week to week is less relevant than changes corresponding to MF reporting quarters, IMO.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

cygnus

You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08 was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing date to report their results to the SEC.

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

By the way relmor good point on using the credit card.... Although I do think with LIBOR rates coming down... this is not a bad way to get rid of the remaining convertibles and buy some time while the auto sector gets bailed out with our tax dollars.... We have to remember that the more cash paid for converts without trading shares for equity the less dilution to current share holders. They have little if any debt due in 2010. Paying for the launches then would make more sense given what's going on in the economy. Having options, and credit available and reducing further shareholder dilution, is the key right now, IMO

Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?

s162

The T Rowe Price purchase for 84.7M shares was also at a $1.75 purchase price. These two purchases reflect 250M shares bought by these two mutual funds, when the merger was announced but before the Aug 5 SEC merger filing details, which would include the 7% convertibles that immediately put a beating on everyone. Don't want to be a wet blanket here, but I don't want to be fooled again...... by skewed data, released when we would all like to hear good news.