seabassbanker

Kovacevich's Delayed Retirement: Bove's Criticism is Totally Off Base

WFC is one of the last pigs yet to crack...crack this biatch will just as surely as tom brown shuts down hedge fund due to highwater mark looking like MT Everest...as evidenced by his idiotic idea of banning all forms of shorting you know this retard was not hedged, should have never called himself a hedge fund, and is prolly getting killed

sorry tommy but i dont spin it...hey its not your fault, bull market breeds incompetence...bear market breeds evolution...just look at your pal bill miller...

Kovacevich's Delayed Retirement: Bove's Criticism is Totally Off Base

MAYBE NOW I CAN GET JOB WRITING AT LEMMING BANKSTOCKS WEBSITE...AS YOU CAN SEE MY IDEAS ACTUALLY MAKE MONEY RATHER THAN IDIOCRACY...PS I CARRIED WAY MORE THAN THOSE ORIGINAL 17 INTO WEDNESDAY

LMFAO TOMMY

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Sent: Sat Oct 4 8:30
To:

Bankstocks . com's Tom Brown <tbrown@bankstocks ...

Priority: Normal
Subject:

RE; What analysis have you done?

Type: Attachments

TOMMY I AM NOT KNOW NOTHING SHORT...I am a college student who would be willing to put his results YTD up against ANY HEDGE FUND ON THE PLANET...I do the homework and learn both bull and bear case my man...

here is sampling of my thesis and research on WFC...you can say what you want but i have been watching these sneaky guys for a while...I DO MY HOMEWORK BUDDY AS YOU CAN SEE

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for WFC I like the april 35's...I have been accumulating since the friday they banned shorting and have cost of 5

i got fill of 2 at 4.8 friday right at open then upped bid and got filled 17 more at 5

here is a sample of the logic behing WFC

1. changed the way the recognize NPA from 90-180 last Q...180 is the absolute max they can extend...mighty fishy in this environmet + they raised divi (smart???? i think not)

2. have some dodgy CRE loans and that stuff is just starting to crack

3. they have the BUFFETT halo + they say they never did subprime...well check this
my man (notice that many of theses other companies are ZEROS now)...yes their UW standard is arguably better but that is like sayin big mac is better for ya than large fry

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Exhibit 8: Top 10 Alt-A Lenders, 2006

Rank Company 2006 YTD MarketShare% Total Orig Vol Alt-A Share%
1 IndyMac $49,620 16.5% $64,000 77.5%
2 Countrywide 47,000 15.7% 333,740 14.1%
3 Wells Fargo 30,050 10.0% 310,890 9.7%
4 Res Funding Corp 29,730 9.9% 66,100 45.0%
5 WMC Mortgage 19,300 6.4% 24,140 80.0%
6 Washington Mutual 19,050 6.4% 153,630 12.4%
7 GreenPoint 12,310 4.1% 27,120 45.4%
8 Aurora Loan Svcs 11,000 3.7% 25,300 43.5%
9 Homecomings 9,980 3.3% 21,660 46.1%
10 First Magnus 9,900 3.3% 22,030 44.9%
Total Top 10 $237,940 79.3% $1,048,610 22.7%
I note that WFC prudently had the lowest Alt-A as a percentage of its total origination.

Exhibit 14: Top Subprime Lenders, 2006

Rank Lender 2006 Market Share (%)
1 Wells Fargo $ 83,221 13.0%
2 HSBC Finance 52,800 8.3%
3 New Century 51,600 8.1%
4 Countrywide Financial 40,596 6.3%
5 CitiMortgage 38,040 5.9%
6 WMC Mortgage 33,157 5.2%
7 Fremont Investment 32,300 5.0%
8 Ameriquest 29,500 4.6%
9 Option One 28,792 4.5%
10 First Franklin 27,666 4.3%
11 Washington Mutual 26,600 4.2%
12 Residential Funding 21,869 3.4%
13 Aegis Mortgage 17,000 2.7%
14 American General 15,070 2.4%
15 Accredited Lenders 15,000 2.3%
Top 15 $ 515,217 80.5%
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4. they have 80 bil in HELOC exposure in CA NV that will take big hit

5. LET ME KNOW IF YA WANT SOME MORE BUDDY!!!!!!!!

SO TO SUMMARIZE, DO I THINK THEY ARE ZERO, NO DEFINITLY NOT...ARE THEY OVERVALUED...YOU BETCHA

SO I NOW HAVE ABOUT 25 WFC PG AND WILL WRITE OUT OF MONEY FRONT MONTH LOWER STRIKE CALENDAR SPREADS ON FLUSHES...ALREADY SHORT 5 OCT 29'S FROM 1.05 AVG



I will look to cover in low 20's



PS. DONT REALLY HAVE YEAR LONG HORIZON SORRY...WFC IS THE LONGEST DATED POSITION I HAVE

WHEN SPOO TRADING AT 900 MAYBE I LOOK TO GET LONG--

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On Tue Sep 23 18:01 , Bankstocks.com's Tom Brown sent:

Nice! You articulated your point of view quite well; NOT. What analysis have you done? You have done none is my bet. Email me in a year and let me know how well your investments have performed.



tom



From: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: 2008-09-22 12:59
To: Bankstocks.com's Tom Brown
Subject: Suggestions/Comments



Suggestions/Comments:

Mr. Brown I just want to tell you a few things First you are incredibly myopic A financial service hedge fund...LMFAO might as well just buy the bix kre xlf and save the 2-20...face it your a glorified sector etf I saw you on CNBC arguing for a total short sale ban...Have you read no history...do you not understand how a two way market works...as a hedge fund (since that is what you call yourself) I would think you would argue for price discovery, the ability to hedge, and a free, open market I sincerely believe you are barking right up the wrong tree sir I sent you an email in july and when you another bottom in bank and financial stocks...I told you that you have proven to be a great fade in the past and linked article to your calls on sub-prime lenders I stated that I would let the pump burn off and fade you with vigor...Well in the fact that this is zero sum I am content to know that perhaps some of the cash in my account did belong to you Artificial means of propping up a market do not end well Do your homework, do fundamental and macro research AND DO NOT BLAME OTHERS FOR YOUR MYOPIC FAT AND LAZY INVESTMENT STYLE
PS SHORT CALL LONG PUT THANK YOU VERY MUCH CLOWN


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Finance Student

Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive

HOW DAT TMA DOING NOW MY FRIEND???

OH WELL...TOO BAD

WaMu: Intensification of Stealth Buying

NICE CALL TARD...ALSO NICE TO DELETE MY OLD POSTS

Las Vegas Real Estate: Cash Is King

this guy is a retard...check out his TMA articles and his "where are the bank failures article"

pay no attention to the clown

Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?

timmy you clown lets update this

WM LEH

will you just die in your sleep now please

or go to the tankervale woodshed with bill miller, tom brown and all the other perma bull schilles

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...

Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?

oh and i forgot to add two rather large turds got OTS warnings DSL BKUNA

1) raise $$$
2) no brokered deposits
3) divest REO portfolio

hummmmmmmmmmmmm

Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?

HEY TIMMY WE GOT A NEW ONE TODAY

www.fdic.gov/bank/indi...

oh and it looks like the biggest psuedo banks/hedgefunds of them all have been taken over too

oh ya move along nothing to see here

and oh ya unemp rate on 6.1% so it doesnt matter

oh well LMAO

Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?

i dont watch cnbc really either....BBTV sometimes thats about it

but hey timmy grab your socks a credit union went kaboom today

hedge fund went kaboom today

but yeah i bet in 1986-87 they had similiar doubters such as yourself

PS has Larry Kudlow called yet????

Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?

GEESH are you crazy

BSC survived the GD...IMB largest implosion ever...we are at 11 and averaging one a week...FDIC is hiring and expanding...head of FDIC is asking to borrow money from treasury

get ready buddy youll see them...in the meantime perhaps Kudlow will invite you in his show and you and dennis kneale can have a boooolish party celebrating your limited forsight

Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive

I have a serious problem with your line of logic for many reasons

1. the shares are diluted...projected shares outstanding on fully diluted basis will number in excess of 3 BILLION...

2. Management clearly showes in this link here that BOOK VALUE is 8 cents after tender...WITH FULL WRITE UP POTENTIAL of 60 cents
yahoo.brand.edgar-onli...

the problem with this is that the JUMBO ARM loans they hold in repo lines (yes the original ones that gave them margin call) are not ones TMA originated...they were bought on the open market and not all of them are AAA...even so I wouldnt want to bet they achieve par value for these...also to note at current they are geared 170x....

3. THEY have a heavy vig to pay going forward and NO ACCESS to new repo lines (per override agreement) |ABCP market is shutdown and they even burned a money market fund....also CMO market for any type of ARM product is dead...you cant borrow at 12% and lend at 8%

so this leaves the question...how do they get money to lever up and loan???? I dont see a way right now and they are not currently doing new loans

so dot hey survive....maybe...ear... power going forward...NONE RIGHT NOW

also to note they will have no access to equity markets for funding as they essentially made a mockery of pref shareholders

so if you dont mind paying 3x book value for a stock that has no earnings power and is essentially in a run-off then yes TMA is a great value...also be aware the real future of the company hinges on 7 billion of Jumbo ARM LOANS THEY DIDNT ORIGINATE...and one more point to ponder...the tender of the preffered will likely just release more supply of TMA stock on the market as

1. the arbs sell to gat the arb price
2. burnt pref investors ride themselves of the whole TMA experience

Haven't We Heard this Market Song Before?

5-7... you are crazy

look at how the options are pricing this stock
you can get synthetically long this stock for .60c by selling june 2.5 put (2.0) and buying june 2.5 (.10) call
that price is much closer to tma's true value post dilution
unless tma falls below .60 you profit

the only reason dilution hasn't been priced into TMA yet seems to be that either bondholders are buying some shares as insurance for a yes vote or massive short-covering, which I doubt.

This is a terrible deal

To anyone considering getting long TMA

Im not going to say dont do it, just that I wouldn't do it nor do I suggest it...

but if you are dead set on it do it via the options as I suggested...
why pay 1.28 for something when you can do it via options for .60

Haven't We Heard this Market Song Before?

Hardnosed

dont you think smart money(as matlin clearly shows he is) wouldn't enter into this deal unless they could guarantee a yes vote.

As of the 11th they will control a 40% voting block... If they haven't already secured a yes from a large couple of holders It would only cost the bondholders bet. 30-60 mil in open market purchases to gain that last block and ensure a yes vote

I believe this vote is a mere formality and it doesn't matter if you vote no. They already have the vote locked up.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

g father

you raise a good point and my only point was that the bond buyers would be buying the shares on the open market only if they already didn't have a 50% voting block...

Im not sure if they do or not, and in my calculations i didn't take into account the pref f conversion, however, the price action on TMA is a bit strange with such a narrow range and pretty heavy volume

Also the discrepency in the options pricing was another thing that led me to believe that they might not have yet a full 50% and thus were buying some shares on the open market to insure that the further dilution is passed

As a side note an sec filing tonight by Richard Rainwater shows that he bought 75.5 mil of these bonds so that will make the pref. tender a bit easier

Two buyers have been accounted for so far.....

Haven't We Heard this Market Song Before?

This deal is death spiral financing at its finest
A purchase of the company under the guise of a 12% loan
and yes new sec filings shows rainwater got in on this deal too
I believe the only people who are gonna make out are those holding the new bonds and warrants