John Groom's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/171878/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/180682/comments?source=feed#comment-838643 838643 Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:12:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128344/comments?source=feed#comment-446755 446755

On Mar 29 01:38 PM Rcsam wrote:

> That is probably the dumbest analysis I have ever heard. If earnings
> went negative, based on your analysis, the stock market would be
> worthless. You have to normalize earnings. Just as you cannot put
> a peak multiple on peak earnings, you cannot put an average multiple
> on trough earnings. The earnings of the S&P 500 normalized is
> about $70. That is a13% ROE. The ROE at the peak was 18% in 2006.
> Twelve times that is 840. Since earnings are almost meaningless in
> this free fall economy a better guage is the value of stocks relative
> to GNP. It is now 65% down from 120% in 2006 and above the depression
> level of 40% and 45% in 1974.]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:40:41 -0400

On Mar 29 01:38 PM Rcsam wrote:

> That is probably the dumbest analysis I have ever heard. If earnings
> went negative, based on your analysis, the stock market would be
> worthless. You have to normalize earnings. Just as you cannot put
> a peak multiple on peak earnings, you cannot put an average multiple
> on trough earnings. The earnings of the S&P 500 normalized is
> about $70. That is a13% ROE. The ROE at the peak was 18% in 2006.
> Twelve times that is 840. Since earnings are almost meaningless in
> this free fall economy a better guage is the value of stocks relative
> to GNP. It is now 65% down from 120% in 2006 and above the depression
> level of 40% and 45% in 1974.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125177/comments?source=feed#comment-425732 425732 Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:40:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120564/comments?source=feed#comment-388537 388537

On Feb 13 05:17 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> So why would you use trough earnings to value stocks? Surely you'd
> agree that the earnings made during a recession are depressed beyond
> normal levels. Thats why the theory of normalized earnings comes
> about. What would earnings be if the economy grew at a 'normal' 2-3%
> rate each year. The stats I've seen show $100. Maybe thats too aggresive
> and we'll actually see a downshift in what is considered normal going
> foward, but I'd then have to argue that $80-90 would be much more
> normal then the current $60. This years expectations have to clearly
> be the trough going forward.]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 12:58:32 -0500

On Feb 13 05:17 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> So why would you use trough earnings to value stocks? Surely you'd
> agree that the earnings made during a recession are depressed beyond
> normal levels. Thats why the theory of normalized earnings comes
> about. What would earnings be if the economy grew at a 'normal' 2-3%
> rate each year. The stats I've seen show $100. Maybe thats too aggresive
> and we'll actually see a downshift in what is considered normal going
> foward, but I'd then have to argue that $80-90 would be much more
> normal then the current $60. This years expectations have to clearly
> be the trough going forward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120564/comments?source=feed#comment-387657 387657 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:29:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84605/comments?source=feed#comment-202880 202880 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:35:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84605/comments?source=feed#comment-202876 202876 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:32:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84605/comments?source=feed#comment-202874 202874 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:32:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82862/comments?source=feed#comment-193533 193533 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:02:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80391/comments?source=feed#comment-180330 180330 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 10:36:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80217/comments?source=feed#comment-179911 179911 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:53:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76673/comments?source=feed#comment-166138 166138 Mon, 12 May 2008 08:52:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75643/comments?source=feed#comment-161928 161928 ]]> Mon, 05 May 2008 08:49:11 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73500/comments?source=feed#comment-155405 155405 Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:44:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73035/comments?source=feed#comment-154214 154214 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 15:31:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70654/comments?source=feed#comment-135437 135437 Wed, 02 Apr 2008 15:22:39 -0400