Chickenpookie's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/171915/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/163088-cramer-s-stop-trading-the-correction-is-coming-9-24-09?source=feed#comment-692231 692231
And what the heck was it you said about NLY? Sounded like your tongue was tied...

If you want to be a clown then why not go all the way by dying your hair green and wearing a big red nose? Then nobody will have to wonder... Maybe this explains something deeper about the GE culture?]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 15:10:35 -0400
And what the heck was it you said about NLY? Sounded like your tongue was tied...

If you want to be a clown then why not go all the way by dying your hair green and wearing a big red nose? Then nobody will have to wonder... Maybe this explains something deeper about the GE culture?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161143-canary-in-the-gold-mine?source=feed#comment-692219 692219

On Sep 13 05:00 PM Chickenpookie wrote:

> Gold - Hmm, thanks for buying mine Friday. Inflation - Sure, because
> there's just huge piles of money chasing consumer goods right now.
> There's nothing like the beauty of a perceived increase in future
> prices to get the consumer shopping again, just in time for Christmas?
>
>
> This thesis leaves out too many details Peter, and where was the
> interest in gold a few weeks ago? I remember hearing a lot about
> how gold was about to dive.
>
> I think we all need to do some more homework before jumping to conclusions,
> if it were so simple, gold would already be $5000/oz. I can envision
> several mechanisms that could be used for paying down interest on
> the federal deficit without inflating, but haven't heard any consideration
> of this subject from inflationista's. The FED must have a myriad
> of ways for reeling in inflation and will do so at the appropriate
> time.
>
> How many poor schlubs are going to be caught buying gold at prices
> which are too high for justification? Maybe once gold begins to
> outperform the S&P I'll think about buying it once again but
> right now I'm more concerned about an equities market sell off.
> That would hammer precious metals prices.]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 14:52:06 -0400

On Sep 13 05:00 PM Chickenpookie wrote:

> Gold - Hmm, thanks for buying mine Friday. Inflation - Sure, because
> there's just huge piles of money chasing consumer goods right now.
> There's nothing like the beauty of a perceived increase in future
> prices to get the consumer shopping again, just in time for Christmas?
>
>
> This thesis leaves out too many details Peter, and where was the
> interest in gold a few weeks ago? I remember hearing a lot about
> how gold was about to dive.
>
> I think we all need to do some more homework before jumping to conclusions,
> if it were so simple, gold would already be $5000/oz. I can envision
> several mechanisms that could be used for paying down interest on
> the federal deficit without inflating, but haven't heard any consideration
> of this subject from inflationista's. The FED must have a myriad
> of ways for reeling in inflation and will do so at the appropriate
> time.
>
> How many poor schlubs are going to be caught buying gold at prices
> which are too high for justification? Maybe once gold begins to
> outperform the S&P I'll think about buying it once again but
> right now I'm more concerned about an equities market sell off.
> That would hammer precious metals prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161143-canary-in-the-gold-mine?source=feed#comment-674939 674939
This thesis leaves out too many details Peter, and where was the interest in gold a few weeks ago? I remember hearing a lot about how gold was about to dive.

I think we all need to do some more homework before jumping to conclusions, if it were so simple, gold would already be $5000/oz. I can envision several mechanisms that could be used for paying down interest on the federal deficit without inflating, but haven't heard any consideration of this subject from inflationista's. The FED must have a myriad of ways for reeling in inflation and will do so at the appropriate time.

How many poor schlubs are going to be caught buying gold at prices which are too high for justification? Maybe once gold begins to outperform the S&P I'll think about buying it once again but right now I'm more concerned about an equities market sell off. That would hammer precious metals prices.]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 17:00:50 -0400
This thesis leaves out too many details Peter, and where was the interest in gold a few weeks ago? I remember hearing a lot about how gold was about to dive.

I think we all need to do some more homework before jumping to conclusions, if it were so simple, gold would already be $5000/oz. I can envision several mechanisms that could be used for paying down interest on the federal deficit without inflating, but haven't heard any consideration of this subject from inflationista's. The FED must have a myriad of ways for reeling in inflation and will do so at the appropriate time.

How many poor schlubs are going to be caught buying gold at prices which are too high for justification? Maybe once gold begins to outperform the S&P I'll think about buying it once again but right now I'm more concerned about an equities market sell off. That would hammer precious metals prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160853-foreclosures-they-re-not-just-for-breakfast-anymore?source=feed#comment-673163 673163
Thank yooooouuuu!!!]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 01:51:29 -0400
Thank yooooouuuu!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160262-gold-is-still-the-opportunity-of-a-lifetime?source=feed#comment-666774 666774
That said, I think it is a mistake to buy gold high and sell low, now isn't the time to buy, wait a month at least and you'll be more apt to catch the next cycle low. The $USD should begin to recover now that gold has once again bounced into $1k territory, and some equities downside from here would be my expectation as well.

FD: I'm short gold this morning from just above the $1K level.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:30:33 -0400
That said, I think it is a mistake to buy gold high and sell low, now isn't the time to buy, wait a month at least and you'll be more apt to catch the next cycle low. The $USD should begin to recover now that gold has once again bounced into $1k territory, and some equities downside from here would be my expectation as well.

FD: I'm short gold this morning from just above the $1K level.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160264-why-economists-messed-up?source=feed#comment-666661 666661
Now I'm looking for the next big bubble, maybe defense contractors? I figure this is about the only manufacturing industry remaining in the US, NAFTA and the "free" trade agreement with China have decimated nearly everything else. And I would've thought toys made for children by children to be safe... Go figure!]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 12:26:44 -0400
Now I'm looking for the next big bubble, maybe defense contractors? I figure this is about the only manufacturing industry remaining in the US, NAFTA and the "free" trade agreement with China have decimated nearly everything else. And I would've thought toys made for children by children to be safe... Go figure!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156980-shifting-currents-in-global-trade-the-revival-of-de-coupling?source=feed#comment-663081 663081
The US has been on a grand debt-fueled spending spree for a couple of decades now, isn't anyone amazed the $USD isn't already in the tank? Well, the great leverage machine has been exposed for the ponzi scheme that it really is and nobody in their right mind would trust it going forward. I think CHANGE will come much faster than Americans might be willing to imagine or accept.

Unless of course someone can briefly explain how a rate of wealth destruction in excess of rate of wealth creation leads to prosperity... Shuffling paper doesn't actually create real wealth, it only makes the void of default potential much larger. America's only hope at this point is to begin creating wealth by making products citizens of the global village might actually want to buy, not gray painted ships, planes, and personal attire.

Lost Cause - Day Late and a Dollar Short: Ask someone from Congress where we're headed, I'll bet you don't receive anything close to a clear and actionable response for they are still attempting to resuscitate the great leveraging machine.]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 10:44:54 -0400
The US has been on a grand debt-fueled spending spree for a couple of decades now, isn't anyone amazed the $USD isn't already in the tank? Well, the great leverage machine has been exposed for the ponzi scheme that it really is and nobody in their right mind would trust it going forward. I think CHANGE will come much faster than Americans might be willing to imagine or accept.

Unless of course someone can briefly explain how a rate of wealth destruction in excess of rate of wealth creation leads to prosperity... Shuffling paper doesn't actually create real wealth, it only makes the void of default potential much larger. America's only hope at this point is to begin creating wealth by making products citizens of the global village might actually want to buy, not gray painted ships, planes, and personal attire.

Lost Cause - Day Late and a Dollar Short: Ask someone from Congress where we're headed, I'll bet you don't receive anything close to a clear and actionable response for they are still attempting to resuscitate the great leveraging machine.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159041-cheapest-s-p-500-stocks?source=feed#comment-662753 662753 I find your logic quite respectable, thank you for your comments.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:32:23 -0400 I find your logic quite respectable, thank you for your comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157732-colonial-bank-failure-highlights-the-problem?source=feed#comment-646601 646601 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 00:27:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/65370-jack-lifton/23755-north-american-companies-involved-inthe-availability-of-the-heavy-rare-earth-metals-and-the-future-of-high-tech-manufacturing?source=feed#comment-641121 641121
War? Nyet, not unless it's against America or some crazed dictatorship for some reason that I can't clearly justify and it's not a thesis for investment when the US gov is overextending the world's reserve currency.

It's the debt that counts, and no amount of war is going to change the fact, America needs a lower dollar to create the incentive to get off our duffs and actually create value-added products(wealth), so I like the thought of American manufacturing into the future.

Invest in something that people are going to need in the future, whatever that might be(energy, technology, and steel perhaps), I doubt it's going to be unobtanium used for making battle robots.]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:03:20 -0400
War? Nyet, not unless it's against America or some crazed dictatorship for some reason that I can't clearly justify and it's not a thesis for investment when the US gov is overextending the world's reserve currency.

It's the debt that counts, and no amount of war is going to change the fact, America needs a lower dollar to create the incentive to get off our duffs and actually create value-added products(wealth), so I like the thought of American manufacturing into the future.

Invest in something that people are going to need in the future, whatever that might be(energy, technology, and steel perhaps), I doubt it's going to be unobtanium used for making battle robots.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157442-cash-for-clunkers-coming-soon-to-your-kitchen-and-laundry-room?source=feed#comment-641095 641095
Thanks,


On Aug 21 06:33 PM j-dub wrote:

> Don't forget about:
>
> "Rebates for rabbit ears"
>
> I have been writing congress for weeks about how Americans need more
> energy efficient plasma big screens and I am hoping that my ideas
> are made into reality.
> Thanks America!!!!
>
> ]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 14:23:18 -0400
Thanks,


On Aug 21 06:33 PM j-dub wrote:

> Don't forget about:
>
> "Rebates for rabbit ears"
>
> I have been writing congress for weeks about how Americans need more
> energy efficient plasma big screens and I am hoping that my ideas
> are made into reality.
> Thanks America!!!!
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155941-oil-as-a-deflationary-investment?source=feed#comment-631173 631173 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:13:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155021-energy-trends-crude-oil-products-and-the-refining-sector?source=feed#comment-631135 631135 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 15:11:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153166-more-on-capital-ratios-of-u-s-banks?source=feed#comment-613102 613102
Thanks,


On Aug 02 03:17 PM bbro wrote:

> This article is a joke....it takes one piece of data to point out
> a shortfall
> no discussion of loan loss reserves to total loans or pre provision
>
> earnings power which is basically income statement capital.....plus
>
> you add the big If which if the economy worsens...you might as well
>
> add if the economy gers better....]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:20:18 -0400
Thanks,


On Aug 02 03:17 PM bbro wrote:

> This article is a joke....it takes one piece of data to point out
> a shortfall
> no discussion of loan loss reserves to total loans or pre provision
>
> earnings power which is basically income statement capital.....plus
>
> you add the big If which if the economy worsens...you might as well
>
> add if the economy gers better....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152476-has-the-housing-market-hit-bottom?source=feed#comment-610300 610300
I don't think we've seen a bottom for prices quite yet. I'm shopping but I'm not buying until I find exactly what I want, I can be patient in the selection process this time.

I blame Congress(for looking the other way and selling us NAFTA), Bernanke (for raising rates before converting ARMS to fixed), and Greenspan (for keeping rates too low for too long).]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 18:26:23 -0400
I don't think we've seen a bottom for prices quite yet. I'm shopping but I'm not buying until I find exactly what I want, I can be patient in the selection process this time.

I blame Congress(for looking the other way and selling us NAFTA), Bernanke (for raising rates before converting ARMS to fixed), and Greenspan (for keeping rates too low for too long).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149242-unimpressed-with-chinas-high-reserve-and-gdp-growth-numbers?source=feed#comment-602620 602620
China should never have pegged the Yuan to the USD, and they should dismantle this ban ASAP and start buying US products immediately. The US is not infinite, the US cannot run a negative trade deficit indefinitely.

This is the reality of global economics, we have reached an inflection point..]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 12:39:04 -0400
China should never have pegged the Yuan to the USD, and they should dismantle this ban ASAP and start buying US products immediately. The US is not infinite, the US cannot run a negative trade deficit indefinitely.

This is the reality of global economics, we have reached an inflection point..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149817-is-the-u-s-dollar-the-fed-s-next-weapon?source=feed#comment-597332 597332 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 19:43:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148339-the-inflation-deflation-debate-and-china-s-commodity-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-587204 587204
Now I hope we can move on to the next stage.


On Jul 14 02:16 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> If you have invested in precious metal ETFs like GLD and SLV then
> please read this:
> seekingalpha.com/insta...]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 09:10:48 -0400
Now I hope we can move on to the next stage.


On Jul 14 02:16 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> If you have invested in precious metal ETFs like GLD and SLV then
> please read this:
> seekingalpha.com/insta...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148339-the-inflation-deflation-debate-and-china-s-commodity-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-586889 586889
Okay then, so what happens when all those dollars start coming back to the US? I think this must be why only a small portion of the US QE has actually hit the streets?

Summer's over, it's time for back to school! (for the kids)]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 01:58:24 -0400
Okay then, so what happens when all those dollars start coming back to the US? I think this must be why only a small portion of the US QE has actually hit the streets?

Summer's over, it's time for back to school! (for the kids)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148232-no-one-saw-this-economic-crisis-coming?source=feed#comment-585169 585169 Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:48:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140581-is-your-house-worth-its-weight-in-gold?source=feed#comment-578350 578350
Why should anybody care how much gold it takes to buy a home as long as GS controls the price of nearly everything including homes? What I don't understand is why GS ran the price of oil up to $145 last year, stopping the consumer dead in his tracks.]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:40:47 -0400
Why should anybody care how much gold it takes to buy a home as long as GS controls the price of nearly everything including homes? What I don't understand is why GS ran the price of oil up to $145 last year, stopping the consumer dead in his tracks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141137-wimax-forum-and-lte-summit-a-tale-of-two-conferences?source=feed#comment-564149 564149
It's enough to get someone pissed off... no wonder the economy is depressed, we've been paying high prices for too many years for next to nothing in terms of real service.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 16:41:40 -0400
It's enough to get someone pissed off... no wonder the economy is depressed, we've been paying high prices for too many years for next to nothing in terms of real service.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142882-oceanfreight-risky-but-deserving-of-consideration?source=feed#comment-549204 549204 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:42:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141851-the-coming-economic-collapse-part-2?source=feed#comment-545162 545162
There are but a few buried data points: (Gov. bubble chart)

tinyurl.com/ksqzj3]]> Sat, 13 Jun 2009 11:25:10 -0400
There are but a few buried data points: (Gov. bubble chart)

tinyurl.com/ksqzj3]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142942-gold-still-linked-to-dollar-movements?source=feed#comment-545153 545153
tinyurl.com/ksqzj3

Yet gold has not budged...but oil sure has. The FED has $7T off balance sheet, wonder if they'll ever get that back out of the market?

Where to from here????]]> Sat, 13 Jun 2009 11:12:15 -0400
tinyurl.com/ksqzj3

Yet gold has not budged...but oil sure has. The FED has $7T off balance sheet, wonder if they'll ever get that back out of the market?

Where to from here????]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141740-team-obama-s-charm-offensive?source=feed#comment-537546 537546
What I think I see:
China prints money to buy fresh Federal Reserve notes, takes these notes and buys commodities + Treasuries + who knows what. What besides underwater MBS's and Treasury notes is the FED buying?]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:39:51 -0400
What I think I see:
China prints money to buy fresh Federal Reserve notes, takes these notes and buys commodities + Treasuries + who knows what. What besides underwater MBS's and Treasury notes is the FED buying?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139229-the-reflation-trade-portfolio?source=feed#comment-516240 516240 Sun, 24 May 2009 14:42:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137882-warnings-from-the-president-this-is-a-bear-market-rally?source=feed#comment-507783 507783

On May 17 10:54 AM thiazole wrote:

> Well, now you guys have shown your hands. If I said something ridiculous
> like "democrats are better for the economy, and that is why it will
> be V shaped", they you'd think I just didn't know what I was talking
> about and dismiss me outright. Unfortunately, your latest posts
> are the equivalent of that and show how little you guys have actually
> studies previous recessions. The reason the ECRI said "80%" is because
> 80% of very deep recessions like this one in the past have been followed
> by a V shaped recovery, while mild recessions like the last two are
> usually followed by L or U shaped recoveries. It just goes to show
> you why guys are so out of touch with what is going on, since you
> don't realize this indisputable fact of history.
>
> It also shows you how little you understand the actual economic numbers
> (or is it just the math?). The stimulus package is a LOT of why
> we'll see a V shaped recovery. So far, only a VERY small % of the
> stimulus package as been injected into the economy (something like
> $40 billion over the past 6 months). As I recall, starting this
> summer, they are planning on injecting $75 billion every quarter
> into the economy. How much is that? It seems very small, doesn't
> it? Well, the current GDP is about $11 trillion, so $75 billion
> is about 0.7% of $11 trillion. But the GDP isn't clicking at $11
> trillion per quarter, but per year, so you need to multiply the stimulus
> by 4 quarters to see what impact it ALONE would have on the GDP:
> 0.7 X 4 = 2.8%. So the stimulus ALONE will account for 2.8% of the
> entire GDP in the 3rd quarter. That means if you were expecting
> to see negative 2.8% growth in the 3rd quarter, then you should be
> expecting 0%.
>
> Now couple that with the fact that if you read the charts of things
> like month over month retail sales, industrial production, durable
> goods orders, that the rate of economic contraction is CLEARLY tapering
> off compared to what was happening during the last two quarters (I
> know, bears only like looking at YOY charts because it makes things
> look worse than they are - quarterly GDP growth could give a crap
> less about what was happening a year ago, though). It would be PESSIMISTIC
> to assume 4% GDP contraction for the 2nd quarter - probably more
> like 2%. Assuming the rate of trajectory, that would easily be 0%
> or even growth in the 3rd quarter. Now add in the 2.8% from the
> stimulus, and then think about what happens if the stimulus actually
> does what it is supposed to do - we'll have inventory shortages in
> no time and that is what causes a V shaped recovery. It will be
> just like 1975. Go look at the historical GDP and employment numbers
> for 1974-75 to see what a V shaped recovery looks like (or almost
> any deep recession like this one for that matter).
>
> Another thing the ECRI has pointed out is that V shaped recoveries
> aren't all that they are cracked up to be - they usually create inflation,
> new bubbles, and are often followed by another recession in a shorter
> period of time than a U or L shaped recovery. So if you just get
> your jollies on pessimism, you can always look forward to that.]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 22:33:26 -0400

On May 17 10:54 AM thiazole wrote:

> Well, now you guys have shown your hands. If I said something ridiculous
> like "democrats are better for the economy, and that is why it will
> be V shaped", they you'd think I just didn't know what I was talking
> about and dismiss me outright. Unfortunately, your latest posts
> are the equivalent of that and show how little you guys have actually
> studies previous recessions. The reason the ECRI said "80%" is because
> 80% of very deep recessions like this one in the past have been followed
> by a V shaped recovery, while mild recessions like the last two are
> usually followed by L or U shaped recoveries. It just goes to show
> you why guys are so out of touch with what is going on, since you
> don't realize this indisputable fact of history.
>
> It also shows you how little you understand the actual economic numbers
> (or is it just the math?). The stimulus package is a LOT of why
> we'll see a V shaped recovery. So far, only a VERY small % of the
> stimulus package as been injected into the economy (something like
> $40 billion over the past 6 months). As I recall, starting this
> summer, they are planning on injecting $75 billion every quarter
> into the economy. How much is that? It seems very small, doesn't
> it? Well, the current GDP is about $11 trillion, so $75 billion
> is about 0.7% of $11 trillion. But the GDP isn't clicking at $11
> trillion per quarter, but per year, so you need to multiply the stimulus
> by 4 quarters to see what impact it ALONE would have on the GDP:
> 0.7 X 4 = 2.8%. So the stimulus ALONE will account for 2.8% of the
> entire GDP in the 3rd quarter. That means if you were expecting
> to see negative 2.8% growth in the 3rd quarter, then you should be
> expecting 0%.
>
> Now couple that with the fact that if you read the charts of things
> like month over month retail sales, industrial production, durable
> goods orders, that the rate of economic contraction is CLEARLY tapering
> off compared to what was happening during the last two quarters (I
> know, bears only like looking at YOY charts because it makes things
> look worse than they are - quarterly GDP growth could give a crap
> less about what was happening a year ago, though). It would be PESSIMISTIC
> to assume 4% GDP contraction for the 2nd quarter - probably more
> like 2%. Assuming the rate of trajectory, that would easily be 0%
> or even growth in the 3rd quarter. Now add in the 2.8% from the
> stimulus, and then think about what happens if the stimulus actually
> does what it is supposed to do - we'll have inventory shortages in
> no time and that is what causes a V shaped recovery. It will be
> just like 1975. Go look at the historical GDP and employment numbers
> for 1974-75 to see what a V shaped recovery looks like (or almost
> any deep recession like this one for that matter).
>
> Another thing the ECRI has pointed out is that V shaped recoveries
> aren't all that they are cracked up to be - they usually create inflation,
> new bubbles, and are often followed by another recession in a shorter
> period of time than a U or L shaped recovery. So if you just get
> your jollies on pessimism, you can always look forward to that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137882-warnings-from-the-president-this-is-a-bear-market-rally?source=feed#comment-507716 507716 tiny.com , this will fix the problem.


On May 15 09:53 AM thiazole wrote:

> **** I hate this forum. One more time:
>
> home.comcast.net
> /~thiazole/
> 1974vs2008DowChart
> Recentered1.JPG]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 21:12:08 -0400 tiny.com , this will fix the problem.


On May 15 09:53 AM thiazole wrote:

> **** I hate this forum. One more time:
>
> home.comcast.net
> /~thiazole/
> 1974vs2008DowChart
> Recentered1.JPG]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126428-tudor-investment-takes-new-positions-in-financials-among-others?source=feed#comment-504783 504783 Fri, 15 May 2009 01:56:31 -0400