trader_murf

Expect the Unemployment Rate to Increase

Thanks, what I suspected all long. I like the charts, things are always more recognizable on charts. And there are a whole lot of people nearing the outer limits of the 72 weeks allowed by the federally extended UIB that some states like NY accepted that will fall off the radar as no longer officially unemployed. And hey, I graduated college into unemployment in the 1970's and even then UIB were never extended for 72 weeks. I understand the party line about employment being a lagging indicator but I still don't get the part about buying a new car and getting a mortgage and all the goodies to put in a house, plus paying the bills without a job.

Portfolio Preservation in a Down Market

I have been using DXD (about 10%) in my retirement IRA (stocks only, have another account mostly in cash right now in Vanguard so it isn't 10% of all my retirement funds) to have one green number when everything else is red and I have been really pleased and it is easy to use. I have taken some profits in that as well as SDS. Thanks for the idea of looking for the ETF's that short specific sectors. It will give me courage. I have been investing in individual stocks for 10 years but this market makes me feel like as soon as I put my toe in the water on a new investment - long or short - a quick bull or bear shark grabs it one way or the other!

Also glad someone came out and said this diversification thing sure has had its limits this time around. Thanks.

Which Company Should Replace AIG in the Dow?

KFT who woulda thunk it. Don't get me wrong I have a position in it for no reason I can justify. Guess every dog has its day.

Year to Date Performance of Dow 30 Members

At the risk of stating the obvious what this interesting line up shows is that timing (and maybe more than a little bit of luck) is everything in this market. The reality is any one of these can have made or lost one money depending on entry point. It seems like trading on fundamentals is a far second to timing, psychology and luck. In this market I have bought positions that seem fundamentally sound and even with charts that look good that shift in days and have had to just dump them to cut losses, except for BA, ha, ha - see above. What is really bad cutting those losses on great stocks was still the right choice months later. I can only figure that eventually great values like XOM will come back into favor. In this market I am still buying but only very selectively and smaller amounts than usual. If something pops I will tend to sell and take a profit and hold nothing long term except several conservative dividend payors and for better or worse some Vanguard mutual funds for my IRA but that is another story...

Bracing for Another Round of Credit Related Woes

Perhaps I digress a bit but here in Brooklyn at least where I live the prices on co-ops and houses still seem to be gaining value at an insane speed. I remember '89 and '90 in Brooklyn as well. I don't remember the term "short sale" but I do remember people turning in keys to co-ops with bad underlying fundamental mortgages and also people who had to sell taking a loss. I also was a dump newbie trader in 1998. All stocks come down. My point is, is it really possible to get through this credit mess and inflated housing prices (not to mention home equity loans, over extended credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.) without the house of cards, so to speak collapsing in all areas to one extent or another? How can all of this be cleared out with foreclosures and excess inventory in Florida, California, Ohio, Nevada and even upstate New York but a housing tree grows to the sky in Brooklyn? I know they say all real estate is local but I just don't buy it, it reminds me of no not Cisco at 100, just hold on. I think to get this whole thing right more has to get shaken out. Judging from the recent sales around here get out the popcorn and crash helmets, sit back and watch the show. Or maybe snack on those ultra short etf's mentioned above.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Yes I absolutely love the summary and read each day, thanks for the above comment to remind me to say thank you! It just puts everything together in one place. Great.

What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report

Good analysis, what I have figured intuitively and from my experience. And hey, kmne68 guess you still have a job, don't need to watch dollars spent in the supermarket, were long oil, with impeccable timing in Ag and materials and are now short everything else! Well, duck and cover and good luck to all!

Lies, Damn Lies and the Unemployment Rate

Very thoughtful article, I have reasoned these things through myself over the years having spent many years at one time in my life as an independent contractor in healthcare and was myself never considered unemployed nor eligible for unemployment benefits when I wasn't able to get work. Also I have quite a number of friends in their mid to late 50's age group laid off from corporate jobs in the past couple of years who are completely unable to find any work full or part time for any salary and I mean nothing. Ageism is alive and well. Ask any 55 year old interviewed by a 20-something doing the hiring. Some are "lucky" enough to have a pension at maybe half of what it would have been had they been allowed to work another 5 or 6 years to full pension age. Great to be considered "retired" but the truth is there isn't enough pension to cover increasing utility, food, healthcare, insurance, gas and other basic necessities, a part-time job is not a time filling luxury but a necessity. After 6 months of unemployment benefits none of us 50-somethings that nobody wants to hire are counted in unemployment stats. But then the politicians can complain about the burden we will be on the social security system in a few years. I have many years of work experience and totally agree with the above post that employees are regarded as disposable, replaceable commodities. And for anyone who believes the published government stats on anything, well, I got 3 great candidates for President...