User 172125

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Frank- good to see you back at work- and hopefully we can keep this a positive forum for exchange of data.

A few things- I would be careful making the claim that V will surpass MA. MA has a small float and will continue to prosper. People forget that other than the Amex (AXP) settlement MA's numbers were not bad at all. The problem with blowout earnings quarter after quarter people's expectations are unrealistic- which hurt MA.

As far as V- no stock is immune to a bear market especially when misunderstood by over half of the investing community. More than being tarred with the 'financials' brush- V is being hurt by fear of a global econ slowdown- which, in the end- will not impact V's bottom line significantly (as we watched recently). I too believe that V will develop its second wind this year.

As far as the comm/metals/oil space goes- yes- I have been saying all along that LONG TERM- it is crucial to get involved. The post 2010 era will be all about resources. But Frank- without beating the past to death- you were recommending these sectors at the top of the market when I was warning people that they should take profits or avoid making new investments in them. You are also making a mistake right now - as there is still room on the downside and the bleeding has not stopped yet.

For example, many metals stocks are increasing- and will continue to outstrip demand for some time- regardless of how much they have corrected. Natural gas is a another prime example as the recent dramatic increase in drilling efforts will soon be flooding the market with a significant over-supply. Ag stocks- and stocks in general don't trade purely on fundamentals. While the valuations of Potash and Mosaic may look great on paper these plays are out of favor with institutional money right now- and it is not retail online accounts that move mountains. In other words- your thesis is correct, but- once again- your timing is off.

This is the time to do your homework to sift out the absolute best of breed plays- and, in some cases, begin building a position. BUT- there is still room on the downside. Oil could bottom out at 100$ and gas has another buck or two per MCF. Your ag stocks may have another 20% before this is over. Opec will eventually reverse course and cut production, and of course further difficulties with Georgia (the country), a hurricane here or there- and a few other supply issues could create a price spike. But, reality is that domestic and global demand has slowed down quite a bit and the majority of speculative positions have been unwound and are also out of favor with institutional money (the main driver of the market).

So, in closing- we have some time- but you are partly right. Now is the time to do your homework- track your selections and even move slowly into the market. Do not forget you can lock in a price without tying up as much capital by picking up some 2010 Leaps- or start small and work your way into a position over time- now is not the time to go 'all in'.

Some of the great South American Stocks (comm AND banking) are beginning to shape up as buys right now as well. Its funny that you have picked these topics as I have addressed all of them on a few of our blogs:

Visa: www.visawinners.com

South American Comm Plays: www.southamericanstock...

The importance of resources going forward:

www.virtualwallstreet....

Keep it up Frank- you are improving- and your timing is getting better.