User 172125

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Jump into commodities right Frank- good luck buddy- does 'global slowdown' mean anything to you?

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Knightowl- get your facts straight- V obviously did decouple to a certain extent. I stand by the statement- but to say that V "will do better than MA" when MA is a 230$ stock and V is at 75$ is ridiculous.

Second statment- I also stand by that as well. Where the inaccuracy Frank?

No mistakes in either statement.

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Wilking- do you believe in "Change" as well?

Let's talk about change- how about a repealed cap gains tax cut to make your investing life even more difficult? Does that sound good to you?

How about a tax increase to penalize you for making money in the first place- does that sound good to you?

Great solutions right now- increase taxation on the small percentage of people that actually fuel job growth- and penalize people for making investments- just what we need!!

You and 'down at 3500' fit well together.

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Frank- At least you found a cohort in the first person to post a comment to your article- "Dow's destination 3500-4000" and "stolen oil from Iraq"-

Great comedy! I suppose you believe in the Mayan calenar and that the world is coming to an end in 2012?

As far as stolen oil from Iraq what a joke... You must be a believer in "Change"- a bumper sticker voter. Iraq is sitting on close to a 100 billion dollar's of excess cash and we can't even get those barbarians to pay for their own security. People forget that we have done them a favor- and even they are too stupid to recognize that we delivered them from enslavement. I'm so sick of idiots that hate our country. Why don't people like you just leave- go live in a socialist country for a while if you don't like America.

On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Frank- good to see you back at work- and hopefully we can keep this a positive forum for exchange of data.

A few things- I would be careful making the claim that V will surpass MA. MA has a small float and will continue to prosper. People forget that other than the Amex (AXP) settlement MA's numbers were not bad at all. The problem with blowout earnings quarter after quarter people's expectations are unrealistic- which hurt MA.

As far as V- no stock is immune to a bear market especially when misunderstood by over half of the investing community. More than being tarred with the 'financials' brush- V is being hurt by fear of a global econ slowdown- which, in the end- will not impact V's bottom line significantly (as we watched recently). I too believe that V will develop its second wind this year.

As far as the comm/metals/oil space goes- yes- I have been saying all along that LONG TERM- it is crucial to get involved. The post 2010 era will be all about resources. But Frank- without beating the past to death- you were recommending these sectors at the top of the market when I was warning people that they should take profits or avoid making new investments in them. You are also making a mistake right now - as there is still room on the downside and the bleeding has not stopped yet.

For example, many metals stocks are increasing- and will continue to outstrip demand for some time- regardless of how much they have corrected. Natural gas is a another prime example as the recent dramatic increase in drilling efforts will soon be flooding the market with a significant over-supply. Ag stocks- and stocks in general don't trade purely on fundamentals. While the valuations of Potash and Mosaic may look great on paper these plays are out of favor with institutional money right now- and it is not retail online accounts that move mountains. In other words- your thesis is correct, but- once again- your timing is off.

This is the time to do your homework to sift out the absolute best of breed plays- and, in some cases, begin building a position. BUT- there is still room on the downside. Oil could bottom out at 100$ and gas has another buck or two per MCF. Your ag stocks may have another 20% before this is over. Opec will eventually reverse course and cut production, and of course further difficulties with Georgia (the country), a hurricane here or there- and a few other supply issues could create a price spike. But, reality is that domestic and global demand has slowed down quite a bit and the majority of speculative positions have been unwound and are also out of favor with institutional money (the main driver of the market).

So, in closing- we have some time- but you are partly right. Now is the time to do your homework- track your selections and even move slowly into the market. Do not forget you can lock in a price without tying up as much capital by picking up some 2010 Leaps- or start small and work your way into a position over time- now is not the time to go 'all in'.

Some of the great South American Stocks (comm AND banking) are beginning to shape up as buys right now as well. Its funny that you have picked these topics as I have addressed all of them on a few of our blogs:

Visa: www.visawinners.com

South American Comm Plays: www.southamericanstock...

The importance of resources going forward:

www.virtualwallstreet....

Keep it up Frank- you are improving- and your timing is getting better.

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Eight percent today- not bad.......

Potash/Fertilizer Industry: The Week That Was

One note about Seeking Alpha-

Those of you reading seeking alpha should know that this is a trader's site. Most of the people writing these articles don't even own stock. They are PAID to slam stocks like IPI and V - hoping that you will panic and sell the stock so that the people paying them will be able to buy the stock at a lower price.

I know most of you reading this post know this- but I want to make sure those that believe they are reading legitimate articles by professionals realize that these are hacks writing slam pieces for money. (Just to prove my point- watch how quick someone insults me- they will attempt to discredit anyone that spreads the truth - because it costs them money) (For further proof- type in V in the search at the top of seeking alpha's home page- this stock was slammed by a whole plethora of the alpha 'crew') V is up over 60% in the last month- if thats not proof- then I'd love to selll you the Brooklyn Bridge :-)

Potash/Fertilizer Industry: The Week That Was

Adesai- Ignore the dribble - I just bought 3000 more V this morning and 1000 ipi- I look at this as a buying op- let the doubters keep selling the stock.

By the way- to the guy talking about the 'shorts'- Underwriters can't loan out shares to short for 30 days in an IPO- good luck finding shares to short from anyone for IPI at this point. The reason that there is movement right now- is that professional traders play on peoples emotions. They know that the minute someone sells POT- and there is this talk of a 'bubble' people will sell- which is what they are doing- the professional then comes in and buys after the 3 point drop- and the sheep come back into the stable running the stock back up- at which point the pros sell the stock back to the unsuspecting fools....... dog chasing its tail...... it is not shorts that produce these movements within 30 days on ANY IPO.

Sophisticated buy and sell and even swing traders- come in on a day like today (like I did) and buy more shares under 50......

IPI is a winner- and like any stock, if you believe in it look at corrections as a buying opp- don't panic- there is no ag bubble- we are only half way into a multi-year ag commodity run-

IPI will be a 75$ stock within 3 months

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Great posts guys-

I like the marketcap breakdown-

I like the one talking about the fact that tech stocks that help connect missing socks can trade at high p e ratios- but not companies that actually produce a product we need.....

I like the discussion about farm demand-

I like the discussion of price increases

One last thing- don't forget IPI also mines Langenbite- and Langenbite has huge demand as well which scews (in our favor) the market share- as if you add the langenbite and potash- you have a much stronger company.

On top of that IPI did something that not a lot of people are talking about- before they started telling everyone that they used horizontal drilling (they were the first to do it)- they went around tying up additional acreage of old potash mines. Guess who they bought some of their mines from? POT

Expect them to come on strong and start cutting into global market share by working existing mines, re-opening others, and developing entirely new ones. As a public company they will also use shares a currency (as all miners do) to tye up even more production.

One last last thing- and people also forget this- metals and minerals that China doesn't have yet consume a lot of are the ones on a tear right now- and I don't expect Potash prices to drop anytime soon.

China alone is consuming approx. 25% of the world's potash- yet have less than 5% of the world's supply.

GOD BLESS THE CHINESE

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Yes, you are right about IPI only having 1.5% of global production- but they are investing in new production as we speak.

On top of that the story of IPI is an Alice in Wonderland fable- the original principals were looking for oil and came upon Potash. IPI used horizontal oil drilling technology to exploit Potash mines that were thought to be cost prohibitive- and voila! - they got into the Potash biz at the absolute best time in history to do so.

Recently IPI has negotiated the acquisition of additional mines and plan to use horizontal and conventional techniques to exploit them.

On top of that with oil at 118- they will not only be able to sell every ton of potash they can right her in the US- they will have a backlog of orders till 2040- and on top of that they are major langenbite producers as well.

I'm not saying that IPI will be a 200 stock like POT- but I think once people realize that the agricultural demand is here to stay- I could see IPI hitting 100 within the next 6-8 months.

Unlike gold, people can't do without food and for every 1dollar potash investment farmers yield 3-

Bottom Line- IPI is a winner- and one of only 14 stocks I have ever recommended that my wife buy

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Author's qualifications-

"Abby is a US born writer"- wow! I guess if she was Canadian we shouldn't listen to her. With the massive 2 sentance bio she posted we should really give her credence

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Hey Adesai - whats up? Remember when seeking alpha did the same thing to Visa-

I see the pattern- I am going to give you guys the best stock trading tip of your entire investing careeers:

BUY EVERYTHING THAT SEEKING ALPHA TRASHES- you will make a fortune :-)

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

Another post by someone that probably doesn't own a single share of stock and apparently doesn't IPI either. I don't know why seeking alpha allows these ingrates to post a continual flow of rubbish.

Sure- the 'bubble' is about to burst. I guess the fact that the entire developing world is eating twice as much as it did a decade ago doesn't matter. Sure- the fact that world population will grow from 6.5 bill to 9.5 bill in the next 25 years doesn't matter. Sure- the food crisis that is in danger of creating civil wars across the globe is because Harry bought himself a futures contract on wheat.


Get real- its like the neanderthals that cut up V (which has made me 6 figures in the last month alone). I bought IPI on the first day at 45.25 and have no doubt that this will be a 100$ stock within a year. Have you seen the earnings of Potash and Mosaic?? These companies are minting money.

China consumes 25% of the worlds potash and produces only 5%- this market alone is driving the price- as it did in nickel, iron ore, and copper. The fact is that we have reached peak oil, peak food, and peak metals. Throw out your boom and bust cycles- and realize that we have reached 'peak world'. Years ago- it was determined that the world's resources would be drained irreperably by population growth alone. It was detimined that resources would be unsustainable at 8.5 billion people. The problem is that these figures did not take into account the global wealth boom. With increased consumption that improved living standards have brought the devloping world the unsustainability figure is now- ready?

HERE ALREADY

Get used to higher prices for oil, metals, food, and ====== higher prices in the futured. Welcome to the new world order.

Now- as far as Potash- and specifically IPI- you would have to be mentally retarded to NOT see the value of this company