bill9300

RIM Misses Estimates; Palm’s Revenue Also Down

You ignored valuation, RIM still priced to perfection.

Market Cap of $66bn, a P/E of 43 Valued at almost 10 times sales. 100% growth is over.

Canaccord Analyst: Research In Motion to Hit C$200

Analyst seems to have neglected Valuation. He mentioned the "handsets are still selling like hot cakes with no end in sight" ?

At a price of $200/sh the company would be valued at over $110bn.

Sale and Profits for the past 12 months were, $6bn and $1.3bn earning. Currently the stock is priced to more than perfection, with an unknown future.

The numbers are like the bubbles of 2000- currently RIM has a p/e of over 60 and is valued at over 13 times annual sales.

Goldman Analyst Incredibly Bullish on Research In Motion

Bubble Valuation ignored, priced to more than perfection-

They were also very bullish on Enron, said Enron “Best of the Best”.

GS has a large holdings in RIMM, at 3/31/08 they owned 8ml shares after dumping 2.7 ml share in the Q.

They seemed to have ignored Valuation and put a $163/ target price on, that would give RIM a Valuation of over $90 billion, a little high for a company with $6bn in sales, slowing growth and a P/E of 60 now.

Will RIM ever be able to justify a $90bn valuation, who know what the future will bring with all of the competition out there?

GOLDMAN SACHS, October 9, 2001 -

Recommended List Large-Cap Growth
Price:US$33.45 Target price: US$48 S&P 500: 1051
United States Enron Corp. (ENE)

Gas & Power Convergence

Still the best of the best. With perceptions far below reality, we see major catalysts in third-quarter results and increased
disclosure in coming months. We strongly reiterate our Recommended List rating and our conviction in high and sustained growth prospects, even though we have cut 2002 EPS to $2.15 and our price target to $48. We expect Enron shares to recover dramatically in the coming months. We view the current period as an extremely rare opportunity to purchase the shares of a company that remains extremely well positioned to grow at a substantial rate and earn strong returns in the still-very-young and evolving energy convergence space.

We strongly reiterate our Recommended List rating on Enron stock. We spoke recently with top management including the CEO, CFO, chief accounting officer, and the head of wholesale services.

We challenged top management on the wide range of investor concerns that have weighed heavily on the shares and believe that the majority of market speculation is groundless, and that which has some truth to it, to be exaggerated.

Misconceptions abound and perceptions are far below reality, in our view We believe that investors have virtually given up on Enron (down 60% year to date) and its prospects based on the long list of extremely negative stories about the company and its financial condition.

The company's limited transparency on its sources of earnings, its cash flow, and financials in general has hurt investor perceptions as management has declined to be more specific in refuting outrageous claims that have assumed a life of their own.

We believe Enron's fundamentals are still strong despite the weak economy. We view Enron as one of the best companies in the economy, let alone among the companies in our energy convergence space. We are confident in the company's ability to grow earnings more than 20% annually for the next five years, despite its already large base.
www.actwin.com/kalostr...

Research In Motion: Price Target Raised Substantially by GMP Research

when they issue their phony price targets, do they think of valuation? When you buy something do you think of how much you are paying? Or if you are overpaying? This stock is an overvalued bubble.



The latest BS "Target Price" was $190/sh for a valuation of $107bn.



A company with $6bn in sales and a profit of $1.3bn, pe of over 60 and now valued at over 12 times annual sales. With growth slowing-100% growth is over.



At the current price of $130/sh, RIM is valued at $240 for every man, woman and child in the USA,

RIMM market cap is $73 billion= $ 73,000 Million.



At a phony Target Price of $190/sh, RIM would be valued at $107 bn, Divided by 304ml it would be valued at $351 for every man, women and child in the USA.



Can longs UNDERSTAND THAT VALUATION BUBBLE????



Population at-

US population is 304,128,000

www.census.gov/main/ww...

Maverick Capital - Portfolio Holdings

RIMM at this time is overvalued, valued at almost $80billion,
valued at 13 times annual sales- sales $6bn, growth slowing, no more 100% increases.

a p/e of over 60 , a bubble.

Research In Motion's Plans to Launch BlackBerry Thunder Are Legit

it seems the analysts have forgotten VALUATION. A $200 price would give RIM a Market Cap of over $110billion/ Rim is a company with $6 bn in sales with a profit of $1.3bn for the last year. Do they think 1999 is back? At that price RIM would have a p/e of almost 100. Their growth has slowed, no more 110%, last Q growth was less than 20%.

The stock has a bubble valuation, but it seems the Greater Fools keep buying (but for how long?)

On RIM's New High: A Technical View

You seemed to have ignored the valuation of RIM, It is a company with $6bn in sales valued at $80bn, with a p/e over 60. Remember what Cramer advised in 2000?

In 2000 Cramer had this advice on how to make money in stocks- his advice ignored valuation and normal fundamental, Momo investing

See article, (all of his stocks crashed)

Cramer said-
"To answer that question, you have to throw out all of the matrices and formulas and texts that existed before the Web. You have to throw them away because they can't make money for you anymore, and that is all that matters. We don't use price-to-earnings multiples anymore at Cramer Berkowitz. If we talk about price-to-book, we have already gone astray. If we use any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn't have a dime under management."

All of his picks back then crashed, even his 4 Horsemen of 2000.

article-

The Winners of the New World
By James J. Cramer

2/29/00 9:42 AM ET


You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss
what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.
OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX:Nasdaq - news), Ariba (ARBA), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), InfoSpace.com (INSP), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ:), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN) and Veritas Software (VRTS).
We are buying some of every one of these this morning....



www.thestreet.com/fund...

Research In Motion's 2009 Guidance Tracking Ahead of Consensus

$200/sh would give RIMM a valuation of over $110 billion, a bubble for a company with $6bn in sales.

Is this the same con as 2000? Cisco to a trillion $ valuation, it crashed 80% instead.

part of article-
Friday, March 17, 2000
Firm's market cap climbing to $1 trillion
Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal - by Dennis Taylor
One trillion dollars.

That's how much at least one analyst believes Cisco Systems Inc. will be worth in a few years--and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree.

The San Jose-based networking behemoth's stock closed March 14 at $131.75 a share, slightly down from its March 10 one-year high of $141.88 (The entire Nasdaq slid 4 percent on March 14.)

Thirty-seven investment banks recommend either a "buy" or a "strong buy." None recommend a "sell" or even a "hold." ...

George Kelly, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter in New York who took Cisco public a decade ago, is one of the Cisco bulls. Cisco's stock is trading at roughly 120 times Mr. Kelly's earnings' estimate of $1.13 per share....

"A low P/E usually signals investors are uncomfortable," Mr. Kelly said.

As a reference, in 2000 Cisco's multiple of 120 compares to Microsoft Corp.'s multiple of 55 and Intel Corp.'s multiple of 42. Yet their values are below Cisco.

"One of the reasons investors value Cisco so highly right now is that, unlike Microsoft, Cisco doesn't have the uncertainty of a Justice Department settlement--it's a much cleaner situation," Mr. Kelly said. "Second, Cisco has had a tremendous track record of continuous upside surprises. And Cisco is viewed as opening several new markets, the biggest of which is optical, which is expected to be an explosive market."

Perfect returns
Paul Weinstein, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston, believes a $1 trillion market capitalization (stock price multiplied by shares outstanding) is within reach in a few years. He said Cisco's stock has increased 1,000 times, a perfect 100 percent annual return since it launched its IPO in 1990.

"We humbly submit that over the next two to three years, Cisco could be the first trillion dollar market cap company--and don't think they wouldn't love it," Mr. Weinstein wrote in his "strong buy" recommendation.

As of March 14, Microsoft's market cap stood about $510 billion, compared with Cisco's $465 billion, which is threefold the annual revenue of the state of California. ...



An opposing view
There are market watchers that are dubious, however, about the high valuation assigned to a large-cap company like Cisco.

Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School, wrote this week in The Wall Street Journal that the high valuation assigned to large-cap technology stocks--Cisco is at the top of his list--are unsustainable.

"History has shown that whenever companies, no matter how great, get priced above 50 to 60 times earnings, buyer beware," Mr. Siegel wrote.....



..."If you had picked a price point to sell [high] at anytime in the past 10 years, you would have been wrong," he said. "They have such an impressive track record of growing ... that the financial community isn't thinking in terms of a multiple of what they're earning this year, but what they will be earning three or four years down the line." ...

full article@


sanjose.bizjournals.co...

RBC Analyst: RIM Can Withstand Smartphone Competition

may be a good product, but the stock has a bubble valuation.

$6bn in sales, valuation of over $70bn, like 2000 is back

Was Peter Lynch Wrong? Crocs and Other Trendy Companies

Peter lynch may have had a good point, if you got in to a smaller company early. But, to invest in a overvalued large company, like RIM, and ignore fundamental valuation is a mistake. RIM has sales of $6bn and a valuation of over %65 billion, a bubble like those of 2000.

Is There a Mobile Phone Recession?

RIM sales growth is decreasing, this quarter's increase was only $210 million, 12.5% as compared to $300 ml, 22% for the Dec Q, $278ml or 25% in the Sept quarters and $950ml or 100% for the year ago Qtr.



Quarterly sales Increases have decreased, is it because of the Recession or Competition??



100% GROWTH is Long Gone, how can RIMs sales double from $6bn to 12bn, when the quarterly sales increase was only $210 ml? They would need a quarterly increase of $1.5 bn for sales to double from here. The $210ml increase is a long way off.



Total Sales for the 12 months equaled $6bn, and RIM is currently valued at $70bn, 11+ times annual sales-Priced to more than Perfection.



RIMM HIGHLY OVERVALUED_


Who would buy RIM, with sales of $6bn for $70 to 100+bn??? For earnings of $1bn? A Potential buyer could invest that $70-100bn at 6% and earn almost as much as RIM has in sales and more than RIM earned it its lifetime.


Sales-Qtr, Increases, % of Increase

QTR Ended.--SALES/ml.. INCR/Q...% INCR/Q

Mar 3, 08...$1,880........210...
Dec 3, 07...$1,670........300...
Sept 3, 07..$1,370........278m...
June 3,07.....1,082.....151...
Mar 3, 07........930........ 95.3....11.4%
Dec 2, 06........835.......17... %
Sept 2, 06.......658....... 45.4......7.4%
Jun 3, 06.........613....... 51.8......9.2%
Mar 4, 06........561......

HUGE INCR IN MKT VALUATION, SMALL INCR IN SALES .
Sales for 12 mos ending Mar 3, 2008..........$6.0bn
Sales for 12 mos ending Dec 3, 2007.........$5.1bn



Sales Incr for the 12 Mos Ended Mar 3, 2008........$900ml



Val'n Incr'd over $12 billion in past few weeks.

RIMM's BlackBerry: Pure Domination

RIM sales growth is decreasing, this quarter's increase was only $210 million, 12.5% as compared to $300 ml, 22% for the Dec Q, $278ml or 25% in the Sept quarters and $950ml or 100% for the year ago Qtr.



Quarterly sales Increases have decreased, is it because of the Recession or Competition??



100% GROWTH is Long Gone, how can RIMs sales double from $6bn to 12bn, when the quarterly sales increase was only $210 ml? They would need a quarterly increase of $1.5 bn for sales to double from here. The $210ml increase is a long way off.



Total Sales for the 12 months equaled $6bn, and RIM is currently valued at $70bn, 11+ times annual sales-Priced to more than Perfection.



RIMM HIGHLY OVERVALUED_


Who would buy RIM, with sales of $6bn for $70 to 100+bn??? For earnings of $1bn? A Potential buyer could invest that $70-100bn at 6% and earn almost as much as RIM has in sales and more than RIM earned it its lifetime.


Sales-Qtr, Increases, % of Increase

QTR Ended.--SALES/ml.. INCR/Q...% INCR/Q

Mar 3, 08...$1,880........210...
Dec 3, 07...$1,670........300...
Sept 3, 07..$1,370........278m...
June 3,07.....1,082.....151...
Mar 3, 07........930........ 95.3....11.4%
Dec 2, 06........835.......17... %
Sept 2, 06.......658....... 45.4......7.4%
Jun 3, 06.........613....... 51.8......9.2%
Mar 4, 06........561......

HUGE INCR IN MKT VALUATION, SMALL INCR IN SALES .
Sales for 12 mos ending Mar 3, 2008..........$6.0bn
Sales for 12 mos ending Dec 3, 2007.........$5.1bn



Sales Incr for the 12 Mos Ended Mar 3, 2008........$900ml



Val'n Incr'd over $12 billion in past few weeks.

Research In Motion Shares Up on Outstanding 4Q Results

RIM sales growth is decreasing, this quarter's increase was only $210 million, 12.5% as compared to $300 ml, 22% for the Dec Q, $278ml or 25% in the Sept quarters and $950ml or 100% for the year ago Qtr.



Quarterly sales Increases have decreased, is it because of the Recession or Competition??



100% GROWTH is Long Gone, how can RIMs sales double from $6bn to 12bn, when the quarterly sales increase was only $210 ml? They would need a quarterly increase of $1.5 bn for sales to double from here. The $210ml increase is a long way off.



Total Sales for the 12 months equaled $6bn, and RIM is currently valued at $70bn, 11+ times annual sales-Priced to more than Perfection.



RIMM HIGHLY OVERVALUED_


Who would buy RIM, with sales of $6bn for $70 to 100+bn??? For earnings of $1bn? A Potential buyer could invest that $70-100bn at 6% and earn almost as much as RIM has in sales and more than RIM earned it its lifetime.


Sales-Qtr, Increases, % of Increase

QTR Ended.--SALES/ml.. INCR/Q...% INCR/Q

Mar 3, 08...$1,880........210...
Dec 3, 07...$1,670........300...
Sept 3, 07..$1,370........278m...
June 3,07.....1,082.....151...
Mar 3, 07........930........ 95.3....11.4%
Dec 2, 06........835.......17... %
Sept 2, 06.......658....... 45.4......7.4%
Jun 3, 06.........613....... 51.8......9.2%
Mar 4, 06........561......

HUGE INCR IN MKT VALUATION, SMALL INCR IN SALES .
Sales for 12 mos ending Mar 3, 2008..........$6.0bn
Sales for 12 mos ending Dec 3, 2007.........$5.1bn



Sales Incr for the 12 Mos Ended Mar 3, 2008........$900ml



Val'n Incr'd over $12 billion in past few weeks.