Joe

Considering Disaster

I am about to follow up as well.
Just in case any interest in the exact opposite, namely the case of
a problem solution (might make above books even more interesting
reading):
Germany's economic recovery after 1945:

www.econlib.org/LIBRAR...

it's a couple of lucid web - pages, a case after chaos and disorder,
where everything was started from scratch

Real Estate and Financials: Sell the Rally

Jason is surely right in his assessments and expectations. As for the
rather irrational behavior of the market; this has happened before,
in fall for instance and again early this year. At first problematic
stock went up, contrary to sound analysis - only to come down
a while later.
In other words, there might be some absolutely irrational players
in the market, real big losers, the bigger fools. What Jason is
musing about will get clearer only some not so distant future.
Breathtaking, time and again, are those losses run up by the
bigger fools. One explanation might be people in whatever position
addicted to wishful rather than rational analysis.
Some portfolio managers, banks managing portfolios, etc. have
lost big time and obviously continue to lose, behaving like
addicted gamblers. Don't forget opinion makers in the media,
internationally, telling their audience to do this or that, and actually gradually masterminded them into serious losses. Of course, opinion does not have any supra-natural power and is time and again over-
powered by the famous gang of facts.
Suggested case study: the role of the media in the 1929 crash,
as an extreme and easy example. Those who arrange the all too
obvious media frenzy, (time and again).

Newspaper Circ Numbers: Talking Quantity and "Quality"

It is possible to gain an interesting idea of the the pricing strategy
of newspapers by googling:
+ad rates up circulation down+

A whole lot comes up, the first article dating from 2004, offering some clue:
Daily blues: Ad rates up, circulation down
(two Colorado papers)
"...the combined circulation at the two dailies was 483,740 copies ...
...That's down 11.6 percent from the same period the previous year.
...the price for a quarter-page ad to run in both papers has gone up from about $8,300 to $18,400 ..."
denver.bizjournals.com...

That is just one article. The papers for a long time pursued this
strategy. And considering that advertisers have, particularly since
the credit-crunch became effective, to be more cost-minded then
ever, it is no wonder the papers are running into trouble eventually.

Newspaper Circulation: WSJ, USA Today Manage To Buck Trend

If this trend would accelerate, one possible explanation why people
change their media habits and consumption might be have to do
with this (in editor & publisher):
Where Was Media When Sub-Prime Disaster Unfolded?
If we were long on the edge of "disaster" with a "financial nuclear winter" waiting in the wings, why were American news consumers among the last to know?
"...A New York Times columnist even admitted that experts and advocates first warned them in 2001 that predatory lending practices were devastating poor neighborhoods but the issue was not covered in any depth for five years. ...
...the (NY) Times business section ... and the Washington Post
... stories explained that the downfall was sparked by the use of overly complex securities designed not to be understood. ..."
www.editorandpublisher...

(Now: who on earth needs papers that manage not to understand
on the highest (media) level; ironically speaking: some sort of "electrically lit barbarians" ?)

Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up?

To some extent banks, etc. were functioning like casinos, to some
extent geared only to something like gambling. Out of touch with the
actual commercial / producing world.
Visitors to casinos are said to arrive with $ 100 and leave it with
$ 60, 40& thus lost. That is the average casino calculation, it could
be even higher.
If one takes a look at "assets under management" in banks balance
sheets one gets sometimes a rough idea how the casino worked,
at what percentage, so to speak. I would suggest to have a look
at UBS, to name just one example for an idea how their wealthy
clients were doing. And yes, in the long it is possible that people
are sobering up. In the long run, depending on the learning curve.

What Is the ECB Smoking?

Macro Man is right in many ways, for instance Italy.
Before the Euro the Italian Lira was in permanent decline,
a symbol of long - term inflation. The constant Lira devaluation was
the useless attempt to undo, "transmogify" all sins of politics
(scandals, scandals, ... incompetence, negligence, .. just name
it).
A glimpse on that can for instance be gained in entertaining
literature: Donna Leons' crime stories, all placed in Venice
(lucid reading).
The same attempts of cheating are correctly diagnosed in France.
Yes, yes, .. to all what is said above.

Why the Dollar Hit a Record Low

Isn't the dollar weakness, the value of the dollar, related to
a) the trade deficit (listed here):
www.americaneconomical...
and
b) the US debt (ever since borrowing heavily abroad)
www.brillig.com/debt_c.../

Zell's Trib: Ask Not For Whom the Cliche Buzzer Buzzes

What might be worthwhile to consider as far as newspaper revenue
- and media revenue - in general is concerned is the fact that
newspaper have increased ad rates considerably while circulation
declines. Media buyers and planners complain that the papers have
doubled or tripled ad rates in recent years.
And then there is the story - and history - of all those ads for
mortgage and consumer credits in recent years, which were very
effective, worked - and now the global financial system is suffering
from the side effects of those ads. Thats something not to go
away anytime soon. That's stuff for some potential media and
ad criticism to come.

An Insider's Look at the Subprime Mortgage Collapse

There is a somewhat related article in editor & publisher:
Where Was Media When Sub-Prime Disaster Unfolded?
If we were long on the edge of "disaster" with a "financial nuclear winter" waiting in the wings, why were American news consumers among the last to know? - March 27, 2008
www.editorandpublisher...
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