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MrBobDobalina

MrBobDobalina
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  • An Annually Updated Portfolio Of Utility Stocks [View instapost]
    OK. So similar to your DG510 portfolio, solid returns that still suffered a large (although smaller than the S&P) drawdown in '08. I assume this allocation strategy would improve the results of that strategy as well?
    Feb 10, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Annually Updated Portfolio Of Utility Stocks [View instapost]
    Great stuff, Varan, as usual.

    By the way, how does an equally weighted portfolio of the same 10 utility stocks compare?
    Feb 9, 2014. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Leveraged Income And Alpha Strategy: Part 1 [View article]
    Varan- How did you choose these 8 CEF's?

    Also, can you tell us when that maximum drawdown ocurred?

    Thanks!
    May 22, 2013. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Portfolio Of Mutual Funds [View instapost]
    Nice follow up, Varan.

    I have used your etf portfolio from before, but found the commission free equivalents at TD Ameritrade. IEF and CEF are the only ones I kept as is since there's no real commission free alternative. It essentially makes the portfolio cost next to zero to implement. I also added IWB for a large blend option.

    My preference is also to choose 2 etf's for the year and 3 for the 6-month and quarterly time periods.

    I think it's like you said in the earlier post - use whatever mutual funds or etf's you want as long as there are basically the same number of fixed income choices as equity choices, if you apply some reasonable variation of this concept, your results should be outperform the S&P500 alone.
    May 1, 2013. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield As An Indicator Of A Bargain [View article]
    IQ Trends uses a similar approach. They've been publishing for 20+ years, I think. It's worked well for them. Seems like a solid approach.
    Apr 30, 2013. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat The Market By 45% With Lower Risk [View article]
    If we use your Dec1 buy day, not the Nov 1, that would help with that 31% drawdown - which is too much for me. But it might limit upside in many other years.

    Another option is to use Nov 1 (or even as early as 10/16) as the potential buy in date, but then monitor for a positive MACD buy signal before actually getting in. I think Sy Harding made this suggestion, although I cannot say if it's his original idea.
    Apr 9, 2013. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Basic Portfolio [View instapost]
    Great update, Varan!

    One question - 15 ETF's is quite a few, depending on your account size. Did you test this choosing 4 or even 2 or 3 for each time frame? Just curious if that make a big difference on CAGR and max drawdown. Thansk!
    Apr 5, 2013. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Adaptive Asset Allocation Example [View instapost]
    Hi Varan - I need a little clarification here.

    There's just one basket of etf's to choose from, right?

    From that basket, you have three time periods -

    beginning of each year, you choose the top 2 performers for the previous quarter.

    Jan1 and July1 (each half year) you choose the top two etf's that performed the best during the previous month.

    And the beginning of each quarter you choose the top two etf's that performed the best during the previous month?

    Is this correct?

    From the graph I assume your're showing the 14.3% and 14$ as the two largest drawdowns? Those are based on month end results, not daily, right?

    Thanks!
    Mar 21, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    But 3 months evaluation is better?
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    Good news, Varan.

    Any chance your system can evaluate an every other month evaluation (with a lookback of 1,2, or 3 months - probably doesn't make too much difference). I find it difficult to find a place where I can simulate and every other month evaluation. Everyone is focused on the monthly or quarterly - I think every 2 months might be interesting.

    Although with monthly and quarterly working quite well, I cannot see how every two months wouldn't work quite well, also.
    Mar 18, 2013. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    Same problem with TD Ameritrade free etf list. I look at the monthly holdings and see what changes. Typically, you'll find a lot of carryover from month to month, so you'd then meet the 30 day holding period. It won't eliminate transx fees, but should reduce them signficantly.
    Mar 18, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Monthly Strategy Based On Polygamous Paired Switching [View instapost]
    Nice work, as always, Varan. This has some similarities to Gary Antonacci's work on dual momentum.

    Monthly drawdown is a bit high for my liking, although still lower than the CAGR. So you are rewarded for the risk.
    Mar 14, 2013. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compound Dividend Reinvesting Plus Diversification Equals Secure Retirement [View article]
    Seems like he's been ignoring/avoiding the issue at this point.
    Mar 5, 2013. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compound Dividend Reinvesting Plus Diversification Equals Secure Retirement [View article]
    I only get $172,727
    Mar 4, 2013. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hawaii 5-0 Trade [View article]
    Looks fascinating, but unless you can demonstrate through some backtesting that this methodology has outperformed by some metric (returns, risk reduction, etc) then I'm not sure what the point is? Interesting theory. Maybe a jumping off point for someone to make it into a usable strategy?
    Mar 1, 2013. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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