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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    We're not all so lucky as to own a Coin Shop Coins. When I asked you about Premiums, you indicated that you charge 10%. Now I realize that most stores (except Groceries probably) have a 40% or greater markup so in that light 10% is not bad, but that still makes it hard for the retail investor to be talked into PM when they clearly see the Premium. It's like knowing exactly how much a Dealer pays for his cars on the Lot.

    It's not wrong to charge a premium (you have costs as well), it just seems that way when it's right in front of you.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's An Ill Wind, But ETF Sails Catch 'Em All [View article]
    While the 3x took a beating on the last day there, look at the trend on the RUSL. not pretty.
    This is another example of the inherent risk in 3x Shorts and what happens if you hold them just 1 day too long.

    I might play with that 3x if I am seeing the Ruble go back into Free-Fall, but only if I saw that now. Oil appears to be stabilizing if my "Tea Leaves" are right.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Good to hear your location John. I will probably be shooting along I80 towards Chicago next summer to visit my son if I can get Respite time for care of my wife. Likely will need a coffee refill by the time I get that far from New Mexico.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    @osolemio
    Perhaps I can clarify a little bit, although Peter is the final word. With an Intelligence List, you get 90 BTFs and 60 of each of the other 3 Tools, the Volatility Tool, The Risk-Reward Tool, and the Odds vs Payoff Tool.

    My experience is there is no limit of uses per month nor on which stocks you evaluate, except that you cannot exceed the total. You can use the 3 Tools to evaluate up to 50 stocks per Tool, but only 1 stock per BTF. By this I mean that you can (for Example) evaluate all 30 of the DOW plus 20 more in a Tool display, then run BTFs on the stocks that appeal to you the most (perhaps 6-10) What I do is run the same stocks through each of the Tools, extracting the ones most favored in each Tool. At the end, I have no more than 8-12 usually that show good positions in all 3 Tools. I will do this usually monthly so I have stocks already partly researched when something hits it's PT. I pick out the best and do a bit of DD ahead of time.

    Assuming I have already bought stocks, and just want to follow them, I will use just 1 Tool rather than all 3, and, depending upon what I am wanting to know about a given group of stocks, I may use any of the Tools;but IMO the R-R and Odds vs Payoff Tools, when combined, are the ones I like for tracking. I will even paste R-R charts atop one another (using partial opacity) in Photoshop like programs to follow dots across the chart).
    If you only buy 1 Int list/quarter, then 1 year would be $200; but I generally need more as so many stocks hit their Price Targets well before the 3 months has passed. Compared to the results I had before following Peter, the few $ spent at blockdesk.com is paying off well. If for no other reason, setting disciplined and reasonable Sell Points has always been the hardest part of investing (to Me). It is easy to find stocks that are moving up, It's a lot harder to know when to get out of the way IMO.

    I cannot comment on the $25 purchase options as I have yet to buy one of those.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    This year AAPL got overbought above 110. I do not expect it to stay above 110 for extended periods of time for quite a while, but IMO it should push into the low teens repeatedly. I will trade the volatility as it swings between extremes. In ~106-108 and out 113 or a little below if bought low.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Replying to Al's comment in Ch 94 here where he said ".Just like Buy and hold,your preserving the capital,big players hate day traders that haven't paid their tuition fee,what are you going to do ? "

    What the big guys hate even more than Day Traders that didn't pay tuition is Day Traders that have methods of tracking the big guys trades. No matter how well they disguise their trades, they are compulsive Hedgers. If you know the cost that the big kids pay to hedge, you can pretty well figure out just how risky a stock is. Follow the money. They disguise their trades by using different platforms and Markets, but the price of hedging those trades can't be easily hidden. Little traders don't use the hedges as much, so the hedging prices are disproportionally influenced by the big traders and the different hedging instruments they use.
    This is not to be confused with "Hedge Funds".

    What Hedge funds offer is only 1 method among many that the big players use to insure against unexpected swings against them. What is really revealing is what one Market Maker charges other Market Makers for that insurance. At that point you have deals being made among large players who are equally informed about the companies, and equally capable of using all the top technology as well. That is where the real deals are made, all us Day Traders can do is read the Tea Leaves, and get in and out with discipline.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Didn't get my price on (N) so didn't buy yet.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    As I understand it, Russia has been one of the big gold buyers. Now with this crisis in Russia, Bloomberg says they will sell their gold now http://bit.ly/1zaeMrp
    IMO don't look for any rise in Gold until Russia is low on ammo.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Dipping my toes into N and GMCR on the basis of >95% odds and Credibility Ratios over 1
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    It was only a whim, at least with Schwab I get a full service bank with interest bearing checking. As long as I stay above 5K in my trading account I can Margin, and that is more like what I like to keep in my checking account. Since I had to spend ~15K last summer on med bills, Roof, Plumbing, Etc, I just have to watch my day trading as I will have to probably wait until summer before I can risk being labeled a Pattern Day Trader, and have to keep 25k in my "Trading" account.
    As for the Challenge, I dodged a bullet there. Now back into nice safe profitable territory. I got caught a bit surprised by the depth of that drop, but not surprised a drop happened. People were having to sell stocks to pay margin calls on Oil stocks as well as futures contracts. It's all back to normal again. I expect a >5% gain in the S&P by NY.
    That means S&P 500 to > 2200 by Jan 1. Mark your calendars.
    In my RLP going to buy JAZZ, N, TYL and AET this week or early next week probably.
    I'll list my Challenge trades on that page.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    I was perusing some of the $4.95 Online Brokers last weekend. and from what I see, almost all of the ones that cheap have some "Angle" to dip into my pocket, like high margin interest or other subtle fees.

    Anyone have anything good to say about any of them?

    I like Schwab for their banking service as well as no extra fee for Level 2. Some of those $5 brokerages don't even mention level 2 availability or it's high priced.

    I only make about 20 trades/quarter right now. I had to cut back so I can take care of my wife since her stroke.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    I went about 80% cash last summer, and even the few buys I have made since then are down about 1.6% since September. Just a small %, but shows how tough it has been to pick winners this fall.
    Actually, I needed the Tax write-down anyway. I had a really good summer. Too bad I had to spend so much of it on medical bills. The Medical Write-off should be a lots looser IMO now that O-Care is in. IMO there should be no minimum % of income before you can start writing Medical $ off. maybe a lower % but it should kick in right away.
    <drops 2 cents on the table>
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    Yeah, you don't want to be buying into a "Dead Cat" Bounce. I want to see some volume buying before stepping into a dip.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 93.... [View instapost]
    My results personally are considerably different, as in this Challenge I have been following only 1 method, while in RL I play with 3x Levered Shorts, Levered Longs, and my sell targets are lower, thus I do not hold things that will hurt me.

    I certainly do more DD on stocks I am putting RL money into, and I DO NOT use Margin in a bear market in RL like I do in-game.
    I have been up over 12% in this game on 2 occasions, but now, for the very first time, am in a Loss situation. If stocks do not recover some this week, I may get a Margin Call-something I would never chance in RL.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 93.... [View instapost]
    If you were alive back when OPEC first flexed it's muscle, you will remember that their Embargo as well as their ubity was based upon the 1973 Arab Israeli war. OPEC has grown since then to include many non-Arab countries, and currently has no unifying "cause". For those reasons; as well as increased US and world production, as well as decreasing demand worldwide, oil will continue to slide until the buyers step back in.
    Declining exports from China means less buying from the only country with the money to stop oil from declining further, but China has no desire to see oil rise.
    That leaves the EU. Unless their economies rebound, I see nothing to halt oil price declines anytime soon.

    What, I ask, can stop it at any price? There are countries like Venezuela, that will sell it at a loss for the cash flow. Libya as well as Iran, Russia and Iraq will all sell at a loss for the same reason.
    Only when China and the EU both start buying will oil halt, and I do not see that within at least the next 2-3 quarters.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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