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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 130...... [View instapost]
    From what I have picked up on recent evaluations of Tit's body, it appears that he died of sepsis from a broken leg. Now whether that was in battle, or just a chariot accident still seems unclear.
    Jul 20, 2015. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • POSTINGS FOR THE 3RD "IT MOCK PORTFOLIO" CHALLENGE.....CHAPTER 1 !! [View instapost]
    I quit trading on the IT2 Challenge. I guess I could pop in and update it.
    Meantime, I got up to #2 as of this afternoon in IT3
    Jul 16, 2015. 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 128.... [View instapost]
    OK Back from vacation and may be ready to make some RLP moves. While signed up for the new Challenge, I have made no trades yet, thus I'm not showing in the Rankings. Hope to start trading on Wednesday. Will post my moves in the other Blog.

    I actually plan on having a second portfolio, the second one based upon Cabot Top Ten. That is a market letter for short term traders like me. Like most, they are more miss than hit, but they charge very little. The trick is to not buy the letter on their first offer. I wait until they start getting desperate and I get their letter for under $100/year. Use a junk mail email addy with them though or they will spam you to oblivion.
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    Deeply sorry not to reply sooner but I have been on vacation and failed to check SA. I get bad wifefaction if I spend vacation time on the computer instead of on her.
    Thankfully, JALG answered at least as well as I ever could. When there are few comparable RI experiences, sometimes all 2 of the MMs (or just 1) may be revealing an opinion on a stock and one must remember that the entire premise of Peter's work is to determine what the players who move the market are thinking. When so few of these players have shown any interest in a stock at the current price/performance situation that the equity is experiencing; you no longer have the odds in your favor.
    Peter's policy is to not even attempt to analyze stocks that are under $10 (I believe because they are too easily manipulated). He also requires a certain amount of hedging activity on a stock before he can form an opinion. When you read his articles, look at the BTFs that he displays. Many will be red background in the box labeled "Sample Size". When you see a red flag in a BTF, that is Peter's way of warning the reader that the sample experiences are inadequate for reliable analysis.

    There are more often many more stocks out there that are far more investable than ones with the red flags.
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • POSTINGS FOR THE 3RD "IT MOCK PORTFOLIO" CHALLENGE.....CHAPTER 1 !! [View instapost]
    What I am seeing on GPL is a company in dire straights. They have only had 2 GAAP positive earnings since Q1 2013, and apparently the BOD and CEO are bad liars as I can find no positive non-GAAP estimates at all. Most companies use non-GAAP reports to spin their company in a positive light, but I see no attempt there. IMO the short on this stock is held largely by the insiders and from the looks of their (adjusted for splits) chart, there is little of value left to even offer potential creditors.

    IMO Sell on any spikes and take the Tax Losses over as many years as you can.

    Even if Silver rebounds, I doubt they can sell enough to meet their debts.
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    It's only a 30 day Target. I'm 60 days into my holding. That's still ~10% gain if it hits it. Not a huge % chance it will at this point. You never know though, the ANAC that I bought 6/1 at $71.05 hit my $79.77 PT today. I sold at that price, but it topped today at $81.43.

    If I had been at my computer, I might have held out for a bit more and then watched it fall to it's ~$79.05 latest price (I didn't look at close, this is an after-hours quote.
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    @ceristeare

    While Buy and Hold investors dislike such moves as BABA makes, for us near term traders, volatility is our friend. I will look into it deeper as one of the potential positions in the next Challenge (as well as some possible RLP investing).
    Since Blockdesk will not have enough prior history on BABA to make certainty inferences, I'll have to do some spreadsheet work on it.
    Jun 24, 2015. 05:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    That settles it, I'll be heading North into Wyoming tonight with hopes of a great show.

    Thanks.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    Crade

    I posted my Sell rules in Ch 123 earlier today as a response to another question you posted. If you want me to post them again here, I will.
    There are IMO, 2 types of Sell Rules. 1 is based upon what I think a stock may do, and the other, larger and more important one is my "Total Risk Tolerance".
    While I do not like to lock in losses, still one needs to establish a Risk Tolerance. The way I use is to decide how long it will take me to replace lost capital via my various income sources.

    I never invest without a Time Target, even if it may be > 2 years. Investments for that long a time requires DD=>at least ~5% of the time that it would take me to earn my Risk Tolerance back.
    Here is an example of that:
    If I decide that I can afford to lose $2000 on an investment, and if it takes me 2 weeks (80 hours) to replace that much in Income-Fixed Expenses, then 5% of 80 hours = 4 hours of DD. I began using that rule some 35 years ago. I no longer work, but I use the 40 hour week basis for calculation purposes

    As for Buy rules, I always make certain a stock stays favored for a given amount of time, regardless of what criteria I use. If using BlockDesk Criteria, 2 days favorable is my minimum, 3 is better. If using another source, the time favorable before I buy depends upon my Time Target. If my TT is, for instance, a year, then the stock must meet my DD expectations for at least ~2 weeks. Longer than that only requires periodic DD updates.

    @IT

    I tried the rule you used except that instead of 10/10%, I used 8%. What I found was that at that level, I was selling far too early and locking in losses more often than gains. Maybe 10% is better, but I think that the better pattern of that type would be using Bollinger Bands. When I use them for longer term investing than Blockdesk trading, I use Bollinger 100-10-10. I buy only when a stock has bounced off the bottom band for a few days, and try to sell if the stock has passed through the top band (or as near as my Time Target allows).

    If all this sounds complicated, then you will understand why I simplified my life by using the Market Makers to do most of my DD. By knowing what they expect of a stock, I can do quite well, as you can see in the Challenge. From August until the end of 2014, I began doing well at first, then wandered off into 3x Levered ETFs and some other unwise investments. Afte Jan 1, I stuck strictly to what I should have, and went from breakeven to the near 20% I am up since then.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    BTW Al, my target for ECOL is 54.02. Bought at 47.93
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    @Crade

    That's the beauty of setting Time targets as well as Price targets when you buy. What is the expectation for a stock. How long will I wait for it to start performing?

    When you set these types of targets up when you buy a stock, that is when you enter the realm of Disciplined Investing, rather than emotion driven investment.
    If you fall in love with either a sector, type of stock (such as ETF or Dividend ), or an individual entity; then you are setting yourself up for failure.
    The one thing I do not get rigid about is in setting a "Loss Target" such as the idea of "I will sell if it falls >10%" or the like. While I try to get an idea of what risk I can tolerate, I try not to lock in losses unless a stock has hit it's Time Target and at that time I re-depoy my capital into more attractive investments.
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    For some reason the IT Challenge page is no longer Ranking me or showing my rank. I'm at 19.2%
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    Monday is "Hangover Day" (not to be compared to "Passover") as I always stay up too late Sunday night watching all the races I recorded during the day <g>.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    Yeah, I liked ECOL enough to put some in my RLP. STZ is a better performer right now, but it's not on my new buy list, just holding atm.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    Ok Sorry to be slow responding, but these are stocks that have shown a couple of days of optimistic Market Maker opinions. They are not the highest rated, but are more consistent than most others as of today.
    AKRX UDOW DRN BC B SPB AALN ECOL REGN SAVE JAZZ GWRE FBHS.
    I put JAZZ in to show off how you can make money in a stock that at a glance, has not had any significant movement since it broke 170 last September.
    The devil is in the volatility.
    JAZZ is a perfect example of how one can make money in a stagnant market. The net has been sideways, but there have been a number of buying opportunities to be exploited.

    There have been many trade-able moments since September for the active investor, as it has traded between 145 and 190 during that time; but if it had been in a "Buy and Hold" portfolio, it would not look great as it is only up to ~180 now. If you look at it's chart, you can see the range that has made me a lot of money. It is volatile, and for that reason following MM Recs, I have gotten in and out like 4 times for ~55% annualized gain.

    ECOL is the only other stock on this list that I have currently in the Challenge, bought at 47.93 and holding for ~10% expected gain within my 3 month max holding period.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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