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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Thank you Indianmark. I knew that photography had fallen away. Production 40% more than China bought is probably why silver is so low. IMO People expect China to be buying MORE silver than is produced.
    In any event, I know more now than I did.
    What do you view as a "realistic price"?
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    "Real income actually rose strongly ?? "
    That just is to say that it costs me only $40 instead of $60 to fill the tank on my Minivan.
    Now if I drove daily to a job, that would matter, but since the van is used only like 1x/week to the Grocery Store, it means squat to me! (I have to use the minivan to carry my power wheelchair).
    What they are saying is that as oil prices recover, this transitory income increase will go "poof".
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    I am in no way disputing that in 5 or 10 years we will be looking at a very different economic picture than we currently see. For that very reason, I chose to use a very short investment timeline. My crystal Ball only sees 3 months ahead and at my age, and caring for a wife who has continuing small strokes, 3 months is all I care to use.
    If I were motivated, I could probably be at least as accurate as most of the so called "Economists" that preach out of both sides of their mouths about where we are headed. I'm sure you could too.
    Economists are one of very few professions that have no real Professional standards, they require no continuing education, and no one is ever surprised when they reverse their opinions.
    IF we see recovery in the Middle Class, then there is the possibility of repayment of our debt, and a continued Dollar standard. I am not optimistic. The key indicator of a recovering Middle Class is the Russel 2000 Index. Those Small Caps are where the job growth is and for many years has been. That is the indicator that I watch to see recovery or not.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    If they bought that silver on Margin, and the government raises the margin due to some fear, JPM might be at some risk. I am sure that they have hedged it better than the Hunts though. They surely learned.
    Unlike JPM, the Hunts put a VERY large % of their wealth into their silver purchases, so could not add the capital needed to meet the new margin requirements. I am rather sure that JPM has the capital to buffer themselves against such a strategy. If the Government wants to curtail their holdings, they need a different strategy.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Thank you John, I was wondering what industrial use was the main support for Silver, now I know.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Just as a primer to readers who may not be familiar with such things (Buy and Hold people seldom use them), A "Stop" order has a "Trigger price" set below the current price which is meant to prevent losses from getting too big while no one is "minding the store" so to speak. By that I mean that you do not need to watch a stock, it kind of watches itself. If it falls past a pre-set point, a Sell order is entered.

    With a stop "Market" order, a Sell-at Market order is entered, so the stock sells at whatever the current "Offer" is if any. In a big crash, the sale can be very low.
    With a "Stop Limit" order, there is a trigger level, but also a Limit order entered, meaning that someone has to offer to buy your stock at least as high as you set your limit. In a "Flash Crash" like we saw a few years ago, there were few if any offers, the prices fell so fast that prices zipped below the Limit orders and they never filled, while the "At Market' orders filled as much as 50% or more down.
    While it would seem careless to enter a Stop Market order, there are many situations where a stock will open well below what even conservative Limits are set at, so your position just keeps losing money. A Market order guarantees a sell, but at likely a lower price than the Trigger point. Sometimes you know a stock is going to struggle for a long time, so you just want out.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I'm not totally sure of the significance as regards the current price of silver; but I need to point out that the major industrial use for silver (that being Film Emulsion) has virtually completely dried up since 1980. Back then we were using multi-level reclamation methods for reclaiming silver out of "Fixer" as we were able to harvest thousands of dollars worth each year, both from old X-Rays and similar which were microfilmed after 7 years, as well as what we got from the fixer. We used first an electrolytic reclaimer which plated silver onto the anode, then a catalytic converter type filter to get the rest.
    When the Hunts were trying to corner the market, there was real fear that production of new silver could not meet the medical demand and that alone was enough to trigger the governments to raise the margin requirement in order to stop the Hunts. There was no other actual valid reason to raise the margin requirement, as silver was not like Tulip Bulbs-only worth what someone would pay you. By that I mean that, unlike the very volatile stocks that have special Margin Requirements, Silver at that time had a very real industrial consumption rate, and thus there was no danger that there was undue risk in lending against it like with Penny Stocks.
    Medical Imaging has largely gone digital since then, as the image quality of digital now equals the best film, the price of film is prohibitive (compared to Digital Storage), and that digital imaging requires less radiation exposure to the patient than film. Even if the radiation exposure per shot was equal, the cumulative exposure to patients would be less as digital methods have virtually totally eliminated the need for "Re-Takes".
    Even after the price had settled down post the Hunt Brother's affair, each X-Ray room used as much as $100k of film alone each year.
    My point is that it is my opinion that silver's value as an industrial metal is almost gone compared to even the 90's. If it were still in use in any quantity, Kodak would still be in business. So now silver, like gold, is an "Ornamental" metal with the value of it largely influenced by the Jewelry trade, (Quite large here in New Mexico for Indian Jewelry), but nowhere near what it was just 20 years ago. If anyone has comparative statistics, please post them. I would like to know.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Were they Stop Limit or Stop Market orders? A stop Limit will not trigger at a price below the "Limit", while a stop Market triggers at the offer. If his stop Limit orders cost him too much money, then he had his limits set too low. I occasionally use Trailing Stops when a stock hits it's Price Target early and I think it will run further, but I set my limit at a profitable level.
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    You wrote "OW, So if I do feel a big market correction is on the horizon, I might be best to stay out and time a bottom?"
    Did you think that was what I was saying? What I was trying to say was that is almost any market, there are stocks that are buyable, thus no reason to bail out entirely. I used JAZZ as only one example because they had a sharp drop over Friday and Monday, which should reverse.

    Regardless of whether you feel there is a correction coming, or if you are bullish; you will be unlikely to time either a top or a bottom. Either way you will leave money on the table. Crashes like we saw in 1987 and 1999 are only about once per decade. Major Meltdowns like 2008 are like 1 per 80 years. The rest of the time, companies make money, money flows upwards and must be invested in something that makes more money. It took well over 3 years after the 2009 bottom before Retail investors got back into the Market, so we are really only 4 years into the Retail Bull market. Certainly there will be corrections, but each one has a higher low and until we can find no stocks that Market Makers will buy, I will stay invested. Perhaps not fully like today, but at least 50% like I was 2 weeks ago (many stocks hit their PT's at once).

    What I use for a strategy is, as I have said elsewhere, is to use Peter F Way's Blockdesk.com's strategy of analyzing Market Maker's opinions on stock movements in the near term. They look at the stocks hedging activity and from that, discern what Market Makers are paying to hedge their positions when they have to put their own capital to work to provide liquidity for their clients.
    Their clients are the very large insurance companies and retirement funds whose purchases and sells move the markets. They employ the Market Makers to trade these large blocks without causing the market prices to move far against their strategies. For this reason, the MMs often have to own large blocks of stocks, which they purchase hedges against from other MMs.

    The resultant retail investor strategy is to invest for up to 3 months per stock unless it hits it's Price Target. If you look at my Challenge portfolio, I have been following this disciplined strategy for virtually every trade since August and have doubled the DJIA. I use the same strategy in RL and have never had better years since adopting this. This strategy is not for the investor that thinks they can beat the market, nor for the Buy and Hold forever types. It is for the active investor who can stick to a disciplined strategy and not play with penny stocks, nor bail out before the Time Target just because a stock has fallen a few $. This strategy requires a certain amount of unlearning what worked 20-30 years ago, and accepting that technology has a place in investment strategies.

    Using 1-1-09 as a price point for any stock is going to show an unreasonable gain. Furthermore, having your IPO going into the worst crash since the depression would be tough on any company. Their very survival through the first 18 months of their life on the Market is a testimonial to the strength of their management. JAZZ is estimated to have a >90% chance of breaking $200 in the next 3 months. It is certainly no longer a Penny stock by any stretch. They are making a profit and have drugs in the pipeline coming on. They also are considering an offer from a Chinese company for the purchase of one segment of their enterprise.

    THAT SAID- None of this is relevant to my investment style except that the stock is >$10.Share, has at least a 3 year history and has sufficient hedging activity for Blockdesk.com to get an idea of what the Market Makers think the stock will do. Those are the only 3 requirements that Blockdesk needs. They sift through some 2500+ stocks each day and you can buy a list of the top 20 of each day's stocks after 5 Eastern. There are many tools within Blockdesk's site with which you can follow MMs Opinions on whatever stocks meet those 3. Further, stocks with only a 2-3 year's history are also evaluated, and usually a reasonable inference can be made on them. There might be too few previous similar circumstances on those though to have a high credibility ratio.

    I have never had a problem finding undervalued stocks. My problems have been centered around setting sell targets. With the data I get, I know when I should or must sell (2 different situations).
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I would suggest that the investment club be set up on a Pass-worded site by invitation, and once money becomes a possibility, a far more secure site than SA. I would be interested, but of course much needs to be discussed.
    Apr 28, 2015. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Think about it. There is always a certain amount of stress building up at fault lines. Fracking is bound to trigger some but that is not a bad thing. I would far rather see 10k of 3.5 strength earthquakes than 1 6.0. Think of it as relieving the stress near New Madrid before we see 4 more big ones there.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Deercreek
    Stop Limits would have been ok in a flash Crash, while Stop Market orders would be the ones that killed you. A stop Limit means that if the price drops too fast and goes below your limit, you don't sell. In that Flash Crash, for a while no one was buying at any price, so limits were passed, and people using them had time to re-think their positions before they got filled.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    While not a "Perma-Bull, I feel that there are almost always some stocks that can make you money being Long on. Look at FTNT last week, and after today, watch what happens to JAZZ this week.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I just this week watched a story about the 16 Sherpas that died last year on Everest. While the government of Nepal was collecting >4 Million in licenses to climb Everest, they offered to pay the families of the Sherpas only $400 each. The rest of the Sherpas went home, and no one climbed Everest last year. This year they had 318 people buy licenses, now right at the start of climbing season (April-May only), the Base camp got wiped out. As of tonight they are reporting 4 Americans killed in the avalanche. At least 17 died in the camp and over 4k killed around Nepal with many more missing or yet too rural to know of.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    When you sell because a stock dropped, all you did was lock in a loss. I prefer to lock in Gains.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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