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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 93.... [View instapost]
    If you were alive back when OPEC first flexed it's muscle, you will remember that their Embargo as well as their ubity was based upon the 1973 Arab Israeli war. OPEC has grown since then to include many non-Arab countries, and currently has no unifying "cause". For those reasons; as well as increased US and world production, as well as decreasing demand worldwide, oil will continue to slide until the buyers step back in.
    Declining exports from China means less buying from the only country with the money to stop oil from declining further, but China has no desire to see oil rise.
    That leaves the EU. Unless their economies rebound, I see nothing to halt oil price declines anytime soon.

    What, I ask, can stop it at any price? There are countries like Venezuela, that will sell it at a loss for the cash flow. Libya as well as Iran, Russia and Iraq will all sell at a loss for the same reason.
    Only when China and the EU both start buying will oil halt, and I do not see that within at least the next 2-3 quarters.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    That is not far from what I talk about on my other Blogs; but in this bear market I would not go for as many as 10. I need to make some corrections in that Blog as it is no longer current in many respects. For 1 thing, If I buy a stock, whether in a bunch or to replace one that has hit it's target, I use the most recent BTF before the Buy for PT and TT.
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    In order to burn fewer BTFs while following stocks, I use some of the other tools like the Odds/Payoff tool and the Risk Reward Tool. That way you can tell a lot about a fair number of stocks using just one tool, then focus in on the stocks that are in the favorable spots in those tools.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    BTW:
    Did you notice that tonight is the deadline for a Debt Increase bill to pass? If it doesn't, we may see another Gov Shutdown.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    I added to my TZA today in my RLP. Must watch it closely tomorrow to see if I dare hold it over the weekend.

    Did you notice that tonight is the deadline for a Debt Increase bill to pass? If it doesn't, we may see another Gov Shutdown.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @User 28775055:
    Actually that very question, when posed by you in one of my Blogs, caused me to really think through a proper answer.

    In the end, I had to write an entire Instablog to fully explain why I chose to buy a stock. (It's at: http://bit.ly/1DjgWYo ).

    The short answer is : I personally require a stock to have Odds ≥87% (7/8), a Cred Ratio of ≥ .9 initially, and to have stayed at ≥ 85% Odds and a .9 Cred Ratio for more than 1 day. (3-5 days is better). I also want to see a stable Weighted R-R Ratio. A decrease in Weighted R-R Ratio of > 10% is, to me, a warning, and >15% means no. All else being equal, I look at the Days Held column as time is also a cost of investment, and one of great significance. If I have been following a stock for multiple days, and decide to buy, I will use the most current BTF Price Target as my sell target.
    However: I hope you have the time to look at that newest Blog for a detailed description of my reasoning process.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    Thank you for reading anyway. I think that just the idea of spending the weekly time to be a really active investor can be intimidating, and people often underestimate their own intelligence.
    Your knowledge of plants and gardening shows you have a great capacity, so I do not believe that you can not grasp this eventually. I think that someday a switch will click on and you will have that "Ah Ha" moment.
    Dec 11, 2014. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    Geesh Al
    I could smell that pile clear out here in the Desert!
    <holds nose and fires up Candles>
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    IT you might want to look at the DOW again. It being above 17k must pass through 17k to get to 16k.
    If you mean 18 or 17, I'll take 18K for 1000 Alex <Jeopardy Tune>.
    I sure hope it is a buying opportunity because I went from <30% invested to ~80% this week. These are all min 1 month and max 3 month positions except a dabble in TZA. TZA was good to me today, but overseas markets are climbing last I looked so TZA should open lower.
    Will it stay down? I'm not sure if I have the caj***s to stay with it all day tomorrow.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @tTF
    The Time Constraints referred to by Peter are simply inserting Time into the formula for investing returns as expressed in an article a while back: "Time Investment Means More To Your Portfolio's Performance Than Capital Investment" :http://bit.ly/1aJ1mC6 from back in Feb of 2013.
    I quote here:
    First, the role of time in measuring investment returns

    The scorecard of investing is kept in terms of rate of return. The largest part of the returns can come from price changes, rather than dividends, when the investor recognizes that time is the factor in the return equation that has the most muscle. That is because it is, in algebraic terms, a power element, while all the others are linear functions.

    R= (1+(P2-P1+D) /P1) ^(1/T)-1, where Ps are prices, D is dividend, and T is time."
    (I had to insert a space in several steps of the equation or SA truncates it. The Spaces I put in are after the =, before the / and before the ^.)
    This is just informational and not meant to be argumentative.

    The way Time is used by Peter's system is to have not only a Price Target, but also a Time Target as an exit point. (63 Market Days)
    This is in part due to tracking the performance of a stock after certain conditions are met means that the further from those conditions, the less precise the predictions (as a rule).
    The other part of the reason for the Time Exit Point is to re-deploy Capital that is under-performing (has not reached it's Price within a fixed time) and move it to more attractive positions.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    B&H
    You say "If the stock market drops 50% again, I will not sell. I will simply add to my positions in dividend growth stocks at discount prices."

    With what will you buy all these bargains? You certainly won't be buying it with reinvested Dividends, and also unlikely to be able to buy on Margin with half your wealth gone. Do you sit on millions in cash just so you can be ready for the next crash or is that money invested as well?
    Perhaps your income is so great that you have a 50% Risk Tolerance; but that would pretty much make you onto Forbes 500 (in which case you hire people to manage your millions).

    Are you actually claiming that you did not sell off stocks in 2008-2009 to cut losses? If so, you are not a true B&H. Once you start the cycles of selling in big crashes, then you have to decide how big the correction has to be before you sell. Eventually you need to be finding buy opportunities and and Sell Targets.
    Years later you are back to breakeven after a 2008-like crash and are saying to yourself "Why didn't I see that Train coming?"
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    Peter may have the real numbers; but if memory serves me correctly, until blockdesk.com went live in ~July, Peter was publishing a list of stocks and a list of ETFs each month.

    In my blogs I have proposed a couple of different methods of picking out only a portion of each list, and 2 methods of helping to chose which may turn out the best. Neither of my methods are extensively tested and proven to exceed Peter's ranking system, but I am trying. I do not have the capital to buy every rec when they come out at 20/month; but at his site I can buy lists whenever I am ready to commit capital, and use his tools to try to pick out the best at that time.

    A new list is available every Market Day about 1 hour after Close.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    The reality is that now that the technology has been developed, it's not a matter of the Saudis driving Fracking out of business; but rather the large companies like XOM driving the small producers out.

    Once the small drillers are toast, the Big Kids can go back to business as usual. Anyone besides me remember the "Gas Wars" of the 60's, when small companies like Champlain and APCO got eaten by Shell, Exxon, Chevron and a couple other mega companies?

    That was the death of the Full Service stations where they pumped your gas and wiped your windshield. The independent service stations would make 11-12 cents/gallon with gas at 32C. The big guys would be selling gas for 19-20cents/gallon and the small oil companies could, at best pay their stations 4c/gal. My Father-in-Law watched as Champlain collapsed under and he had to lease from Texaco. (At 4c/gal.) Fortunatly, by that time he was the most coveted of blue collar workers-an Honest Auto Mechanic.
    The gas pumps only covered the utilities. His shop made a bundle.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    LOL I did well today in TZA though in my RLP. Well enough that I didn't sell at close as I have a fair cushion if it doesn't tank too big overnight.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @Varan;
    Can you be more specific in your question?
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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