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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    John, you are forgetting the Pardons he will issue to all the Bank Executives that contributed illegally. LOL

    Seriously though, while his Foreign Policy clearly shows what a mistake it was to elect one so inexperienced, a non-Veteran, and ignorant of the world; POTUS has actually done rather well on the economy. Remember what he inherited, and the BULL run that has lasted almost continuously since ~3 months after his inauguration. How he has done it may not be his fault or doing; but at least he has not managed to screw it up much. What he has done to the Middle Class is almost criminal; but that too may have been done by almost any Politician. Given the choices that the GOP has handed us, what or who could have done things differently?

    Do any of you want the Anarchist "Tea Party" abandoning government altogether? Would Mitt have treated the Middle Class differently? McCain is clearly unstable mentally.

    I have no love for any politician or political party. Virtually all of them are driven by the same thing, that being the absolute need to gain POWER.
    We can only be grateful that our forefathers required Presidents to run again after 4 years, and those who limited Presidents to 2 terms after FDR's 4.
    We really need now to be considering what philosophy we want next. As Romney said; "After the Primaries, it's an Etch-a-Sketch" where what candidates say to get nominated changes radically in the election run-up.

    The worst part is that the Electorate can be so influenced by empty promises, and so quickly forget what a person has actually done in the years prior to running and buy all their lies in the Pre-Election Propaganda Blitz.
    Perhaps the European Parliamentary system is better, where a "No-Confidence" vote can start us afresh and not have to wait for the next Leap Year.

    I only know that I do not want us involved in un-winnable religious wars, nor be in the grip of any extremist group. That direction leads only to death and disaster. I have become a-political, and in political arguments will lie the death of this forum.
    Sep 7 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    I'm sorry Al, I'm not understanding what you just said there. Are those stocks? if so, what are the Tickers?
    I know I'm pretty medicated and have not have had the time to look at your links yet; but maybe you can clarify where to look at Cove Point, and what "fluid front's" means.
    Sep 7 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    I do like the idea of using the leveraged ETFs, as the non-leveraged produce rather unimaginative results. Just make sure you know what your leveraged ETFs hold, as some hold stocks as well as the indexes. TQQQ in particular holds a lot of AAPL in addition to the AAPL heavy NASDQ. Good when AAPL is good, but a tank by AAPL hurts them excessively.
    Sep 7 03:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    Lucky for me, My Chiefs play the second game, so I can sleep in. Another hour and I might have this nailed.
    Sep 7 03:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    I blew the entire evening chasing down a formula to enter in a spreadsheet to calculate risk/reward weighted by days held as well as Annual Rate of Return. What makes it tough is the way Excel reads % columns so I wind up dividing almost every % column by 100. 1 formula looks like this: Here is what I am working with:
    the original formula of:
    .=((I2*(J2/100)) + ((100-I2) *(G2/100)))* M2/K2*100 <spaces inserted by me so the formula displays>
    becomes
    =((I2*(F2/100))+((100-... (M2/O2) /K2*1000 <spaces inserted by me>
    The (M2/O2) divides the samples field(M of O) by the Total Samples field as in 165/1261 (line 2 below) compared to 113/1067 (line 4)
    Multiplying it all by 1000 just gives a workable size number.
    Using a list that compares sample Ratios of
    193 of 1062 0.1817325800376648
    165 of 1261 0.1308485329103886
    170 of 1090 0.1559633027522936
    113 of 1067 0.105904404873477

    A column that reads
    61.64
    51.39
    44.36
    43.95
    becomes a column that changes to
    58.04
    40.76
    40.7
    41.19
    The unweighted R/R column is followed by AROR is
    1.92 286%
    1.91 144%
    1.63 121%
    1.92 160%
    What my formula does is reduce the weight of the absolute# to a percentage of samples which allows the weight of the AROR to apply

    Tylenol has worn off, my head is spinning, I hope I didn't give any of you headaches.
    Sep 7 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Best ETF Choices, Picked By Experts' Intelligent Behavior [View article]
    Ahh Hahh
    I worked out the formula and it fits like a glove. I will take several days to determine predictive behavior, but I have the relativistic values.
    I will compare it to the FOM and post the comparisons in my Forum and Tools Blog at http://seekingalpha.co...
    as soon as my weekend company leaves and I can put it all together.
    Sep 7 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Best ETF Choices, Picked By Experts' Intelligent Behavior [View article]
    Editing timed out. Ignore the number like in O197, as O is the column and 197 is the line number I am working on. The important numbers are the ratios. The math is terribly imperfect as I am getting some bizarre results from ratios that go the wrong way under some circumstances. My wife was the true mathematician, but has lost that for now :(.

    Since they are based upon different numbers of samples, I am trying to give equal ratios equal weight.
    Once I have the math worked out, what I will do is go back and apply these ratios to my list in my "Analysis Blog" to look back and test predictive value. I already see where I am using many wrong columns in my alterations, so this is just an example of the complexity, not real calculations.
    Sep 7 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Best ETF Choices, Picked By Experts' Intelligent Behavior [View article]
    What I am doing with the "Odds weighted R/R is using a derivative. I am thinking that taking an absolute number like 63 of 1261 (1:20 ratio) is getting more weight than say 53 of 1175 (1:22 Ratio). What I am thinking is that, given >3 years of data. the weighting may be useful if one uses the % of instances for a weight, rather than an absolute number. If the sample sizes are large, but different, is a ratio more predictive than an absolute number of instances, regardless of what % of the samples that number is.
    I have yet to come up with the final formula to plug into my Spreadsheet, but (partly because of the way Excel reads % Cells, It kind of looks like :
    =((J197*(G197/100))+ ((100-J197)*(H197/100))) *(O197/M197)*100
    <I had to insert spaces so it prints the whole formula on SA>
    In this formula, lower is better.
    where M is the instance column, and O is the number of total samples. Perhaps, To make Higher Better, I should reverse the Ratio to (M197/O197) so it comes out:
    =((J206*(G206/100))+ ((100-J206)*(H206/100)))* (M206/O206)*100
    <more space insertions>
    Anyone besides me have a headache yet?
    .
    Sep 7 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    What you say is true, I'm just saying that as it was done during a bit of an unusual situation, I don't know how comparable their situation is to other companies doing the same. Perhaps good comparison, perhaps not. It's just it's the only one I am familiar with in recent memory.
    I think more important is how the new company is structured. Sometimes such things are the "dumping Grounds" for bad debts and the like.
    I always look at spin-offs with a bit of a jaundiced eye. Why are they doing it? What is the advantage that the extensive expense hopes to get for return? Is the new company going to be the "Good Bank" or the Bad Bank" (if in the case of banks unloading Toxic product)?
    Bottom line, Each case requires individual research of both the old company, as well as what are the structures of the new ones.

    I'll have to research $SSE next week. Have company this weekend. Is there some other company that you would like researched?
    I have been very limited in the Investor News I have had time to read since May. I have had a triple load on me.
    Doing my usual tasks, my Beta Testing, being General Contractor for major home repairs, and oh yes, taking care of an ill wife. Make that Quad Duties.
    Sep 7 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    Al
    I think when Chesapeake Energy did that, it was during a big turmoil period as their CEO was caught looting the company (in the shareholders opinions). He was first dropped as Chairman, then eventually forced out. They are not a great example.
    That's the only one I recall in the recent era.
    Sep 6 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    Well there is no better way to test out new strategies than in "Paper Trades" where there is no "Panic Factor" that makes you bail before something goes back up as predicted.
    With my strategy, I am doing the opposite. I am using the technique that I have used in my RLP to show how effective this strategy is. It's not "My" strategy, but that of Blockdesk.com.
    Using it in RLP, I have never had a better year. Up an annualized near 30% and would be more if I hadn't gotten off track in the spring and played with some triple shorts. They can hurt you fast.
    I did a test portfolio on the shorts that Robert Duval wanted to run, and one of his short stocks would have killed him if he was in and still short it. It was (MBLY), up over 15%.
    I'm just not convinced that I can make money predicting Shorts. Others clearly do, but it does not work well for me.
    I did make a LOT on TQQQ earlier this year, and early last week it looked good again.
    Sep 6 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    I just wish I had bought more in the challenge at that bargain price, but already have 2x as much as any other stock in it.
    Sep 5 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    JAZZ got oversold yesterday down to ~$154. I doubled down on my RLP in it, and it closed today at $168.02. ~$.30 above my sell target of $167.71 in my RLP.
    I'll smile all weekend.
    Sep 5 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 78....  [View instapost]
    You posted that list a bit early as my biggest holding gained ~7% after that. I am now up to >111k and over 11% gain.

    nkings Username Cash Balance Market Value Initial Portfolio Value Current Portfolio Value Return
    1 OldWarrior -75,639.34 187,058.89 100,000.00 111,419.55 11.42%
    2 cbowman 481.44 105,755.90 100,000.00 106,237.34 6.24%
    3 Cwinn 769.72 115,229.50 100,000.00 104,015.22 4.02%
    4 User7 2,063.04 101,325.42 100,000.00 103,388.46 3.39%
    5 crademan 3,226.29 99,971.72 100,000.00 103,198.01 3.20%
    6 EconomicAnalyst -36,767.59 138,275.31 100,000.00 101,507.72 1.51%
    7 JohnBinTN -25,676.76 126,717.50 100,000.00 101,040.74 1.04%
    8 Interesting 11,750.69 88,740.00 100,000.00 100,490.69 0.49%
    9 JohnWilson 91,158.40 9,138.00 100,000.00 100,296.40 0.30%
    10 MadcapLaughs -81,366.52 180,902.73 100,000.00 99,536.21 -0.46%
    11 Carl2014 -21,463.88 120,871.00 100,000.00 99,407.12 -0.59%
    12 justin 17,820.40 77,847.50 100,000.00 95,667.90 -4.33%
    13 nocnurzfred 466.76 94,782.05 100,000.00 95,248.81 -4.75%
    14 deercreekvols 4,697.23 89,717.50 100,000.00 94,414.73 -5.59%
    15 kanwar99 9,064.52 192,592.00 100,000.00 86,114.52 -13.89%
    Sep 5 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    @User
    Have you thought of buying when it's below that average, then selling when it's above? that sounds more logical just at a glance.
    Sep 4 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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