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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    EA The time to go the the Deere plant is during the John Deere Classic Golf Tournament. I would KILL for one of those Tee Markers that they use. The other best time is, of course, when the leaves are turning along the Mississippi.
    May 17, 2015. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    I might just make that trip Crade. I can use the excuse of visiting my son and grandson, while really going there to inhale peaches!!!
    May 17, 2015. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    Crade, I'll be sending my son over to pick up some <g>.

    I wish I could as I enjoy them almost as much as strawberries but alas, He is also too busy even though he lives not far from you (Chandler). His 4 year old is almost a full time job in itself.

    I had a pear tree in Iowa, but it was a variety that had a shelf life expressed in bounces, not even hours. Little brown suckers that you had to catch on the first bounce as they were never quite ripe on the tree, and bad by the time they bounced about 3 times. Incredibly sweet though, and the birds got SOOO drunk eating them that it was hilarious.

    Seriously though, do you have a "Farmers Market" that you attend or know of in your area? I'll hit it the next time I go visit.
    May 17, 2015. 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    First off, IT I want to thank you for even opening a lot of this stuff for discussion and tends their Blog. If you think this blog is a bit inactive, I have several that often go a month without 1 comment. As the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy says "Don't Panic".

    As with most, I read a lot more here than I comment on. Part of the reason is RL stuff, and part is because there is a lot of discussion around PMs, and I am really pretty ignorant of PM trading. PM falls into the category of Commodities, something which I avoid. Now I know that there are a number of ETFs built around PMs, PM Miners, etc; but they all depend on the prices of the PMs for their direction and volatility.

    I am not being critical of discussing PMs, I just do not have much to offer when it comes to trading in them.

    When I do DD on a company or even an ETF, I like to read the SEC filings, see how many shares are out and whether that is growing or declining, all those things that are unavailable when one looks at the PMs themselves. Now the ETFs have that, but no one is going to come out with a silver bar with a wider screen or longer battery life. No one attaches a better camera, a better drug to extend it's life, or has developed a better security program to install on it.

    Perhaps to stimulate more discussion, I should be posting about the things of which I have some expertise, and invite comment on them. I will do so as time permits. One thing that is of interest to me is discussions of Market Direction.
    If you read what Peter Way is detecting near term Market direction as he analyzes the Market Maker's opinions of Leveraged Long ETFs, (http://seekingalpha.co... )
    as of 5/1 and 5/11, his analysis is showing that there is not much optimism of general SP growth over the next 3 months (as shown by the Upside/Downside Ratios of 4 major index ETFs). I do believe that there, as always, is the opportunity to make money, It will not be as easy this summer as it has been over the prior 6 summers or so. I can't help but think that if the stock indexes stagnate, it will be due to a retreat to bonds rather than PMs, as PMs have the reputation of being more heavily manipulated than Bonds. I have no proof that they are, just that most of the people that I talk to, when asked which are most manipulated, will tell you PMs.
    For that reason, I expect Bond funds to outperform both Equities and Metals over the next quarter.
    Now I must do the research to prove my hypothesis. I will start by getting lists of Bond ETFs, and doing some DD on them. If anyone has a favotite such ETF or is curious of such, please post the Ticker of ones you are interested in, and I will include as many as I can. No Mutual Funds please. They are far harder for me to research, and I will save them for later.
    May 17, 2015. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    Don't kill the Blog just yet IT. I'm working on something that may generate some posts. I should have some better idea by Sunday.
    May 16, 2015. 04:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    My portfolio consists of $STZ $CMG $JAZZ $ECOL, and $ACT.
    No real dividend payers there, but some solid performers. I am down to only 5 positions as I have had so little time to monitor and trade in the Challenge. Among other stocks, I have ACT, ECOL, and STZ in my RLP. I dumped my FTNT at $38.38.
    May 16, 2015. 04:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    As Goalie, I'm here to block shots at penny stocks. I don't even look at SEC filings of any stock below ~$10.
    May 16, 2015. 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    Sorry to have been AWOL so much. Even my Challenge Account is showing my neglect. I fell about 2 weeks ago, and was bedridden for about a week. Today is the first day that I have been able to walk from my bedroom to my computer room without significant pain. I hope to be able to be more active by next week if I can get my other commitments met.
    Until then, trading in my Challenge Account is the very LAST thing on my agenda.
    May 13, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 119 [View instapost]
    The biggest risk in investing in China IMO is that it is very hard to trust what they say-good or bad. My most recent investment in China in the Challenge cost me like 6K. It was an internet company that had 60% fewer subscribers than they claimed.
    May 13, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    I subscribe to 2 security sites. One is TheRegister.UK and the other is part of DSLReports.com and both rate McAfee much higher for the average computer user than Norton.
    Of course, Corporate users need more than generic security programs.
    May 13, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    @Deer
    Looks like it is because 2 people are not showing up in the Challenge who were there Thursday.
    Dr. Doom and Sunshine Lolipop are gone this weekend. I do not know if it's a glitch, or if they actually left.
    May 3, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    I found that Norton has several issues with the settings that the firewall defaults to, mainly that it once it thinks a site is bad, it is very difficult to "un-teach" Norton that the site is not really bad. It can misread a site's validity simply from dropped Packets if the secure site does not send valid data befrore a timeout. I finally switched to McAfee about 3 years ago and have not had that problem again.
    May 3, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Crade, as I alluded to above, if the police have evidence that a crime has been committed, then they have "Probable Cause" to enter a home, business, whatever, and from that point they can move to protect someone, or make arrests. An example of a "Gray Area" is shown by an incident that happened while I was away from home on a contract I was doing. The police appeared at the door and when my wife answered the door, they informed her that a 911 call had been made from our home. This was long before my wife had had her stroke and she knew that no such call had been made. Still, the police insisted on searching our house "for her protection". She never told me about this until many years later as she knew what my reaction would be. At the very least I would have sued the city. Unfortunately, the Statute of Limitations had expired.
    May 3, 2015. 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I think that the point that the ACLU is making is that the police must have "Probable Cause" before entering a home and that they should not get their PC AFTER entering the home.
    "Probable Cause" has a rather broad definition, and IMO should be held to a much higher standard than it currently is. The Baltimore police claimed that Mr Gray gave them PC by running away, but admit that the knife that they arrested him for was legal and that they had no cause to detain him. The problem is that by the time a lawyer would have gotten the charges dropped, he had already assumed room temperature. If the standards for PC were higher-that the police had to know that a crime had probably been committed-Mr Gray would never have had his terminal encounter with them. I do not know what court or when; ruled that running away when someone saw a policeman was grounds for pursuit; but IMO that ruling should be seriously reviewed. IMO that issue is far more important to address than when police should document what they see. I believe that if police really do have PC, then they need to document their actions (good and bad) AFTER that point. Without PC, police should not be entering homes.
    May 3, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    You said "I still question the statement that a 2008-like market meltdown is a one-in-eighty year event. I am also skeptical at trying to select a combination of stocks that will have a cumulative net gain during a sharp market correction."
    A correction takes the Market down 10 to as high as 25%.
    2008 was a genuine crash taking the market down >50%. We had not seen a crash that serious since 1929.
    Finding stocks that can make you money in such an environment is difficult, but not impossible. You would have to shorten your holding period probably even more than my current 63 Market Days, but still there is some volatility that can be used to capture small gains, while perhaps buying Short ETFs for short term holding periods as well. I do not recommend levered short ETFs generally, but I do believe that there is a place for them. The fact is that I am not really big on any levered ETFs, despite having made some really good money on some last summer, and the fall before then. I think it was TQQQ that performed the best for me, but I would have to dig kinda deep to find out just when it came up on Peter's radar.
    May 3, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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