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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    I know I said below that my choice would have been (JAZZ), but looking at prices after today's close, for my RLP, I rather like (ETE) better except if you do your own taxes, or like doing them. ETE added ~$30 onto my tax prep fees a couple years ago when I had bought them in my RLP. Since you like other stocks in that same tax category, It probably would not cost you much more. I am no Tax Expert. I just turn my papers over to my Tax Lawyer every Q. I think that it falls into a long term position better than JAZZ, but if I could get JAZZ at yesterday's Close, I would. You might notice that I hold 2-3 times as many dollars worth of it in this challenge as any other position. For that reason, I would not add to that position. For my RLP, a few shares of (NFLX) might be in order since they fell so far. I have not researched any of these before issuing my opinions as of tonight. Thus these are "Gut" feelings, and not related to my worksheets.
    Sep 25 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    IT It got a lot closer today.

    1 cbowman 106,830.64 6.83%
    2 OldWarrior 105,704.28 5.70%
    3 User7 102,376.17 2.38%
    4 Interesting 101,740.40 1.74%
    5 JohnBinTN 101,673.59 1.67%
    6 crademan 100,567.82 0.57%
    I stopped there to avoid embarrassing those in the Negative Column.
    I jumped 3.75% today.
    As for your question earlier, It's a tough question, but at those prices it would have to be (JAZZ), as it went up >$6 today, with the 3 month potential to continue, albeit more slowly. PT is >$175
    Sep 24 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    Crade
    You have to remember that I was raised Mennonite. While my family were not "Old Mennonite" (which is interchangeable with Amish), my grandparents were. My father's father was a Wood-wright, which is like a cabinet maker but not so specialized. I grew up using the same tools to build things under my father's watchful eye with many of the same tools you see on PBS "The Wood-wright's Shop". My father and especially my Grandfather hand made many of the tools I worked with. All I can say is "TG for Power Tools!!!!!" Getting a board perfectly flat with a hand plane is seriously tuff. I spent 3 months on an End Table when I was about 11, most of it just getting all the boards square in every dimension. I turned to being a metal-smith after that until I ran away and joined the Army. I could always make metal do what I wanted, but wood was just too soft or something. I found out a while back that the VA will buy me "Quality of Life" tools, where I could set up a Wrought-Iron shop, but I cant sell what I make for a profit. Strange rules.
    The Tourist shops now want far too much money for hand crafted furniture, but if you can find the little meat markets off the beaten path, you will find sausage to Die For. (if you are a non jewish carnivore). They use the whole hog, not just the scraps.
    Sep 24 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    My Current Holdings:

    Symbol
    Tkr Qty Paid Last Price Market Value Profit/Loss
    IPXL 600 23.56 24.28 14,568.00 3.06%
    ETE 300 58.10 59.81 17,943.00 2.94%
    IWP 115 87.27 89.04 10,239.60 2.03%
    AAPL 100 101.72 102.64 10,264.00 0.90%
    RGA 125 80.73 81.30 10,162.50 0.71%
    DXPE 132 76.72 76.49 10,096.68 -0.30%
    XBI 100 154.83 154.26 15,426.00 -0.37%
    JAZZ 265 163.12 158.82 42,087.30 -2.64%
    PPG 50 204.31 198.28 9,914.00 -2.95%
    FTNT 500 26.39 25.51 12,755.00 -3.33%
    MDSO 200 45.09 43.55 8,710.00 -3.42%
    M 200 61.71 58.64 11,728.00 -4.97%
    GWR 50 102.78 97.13 4,856.50 -5.50%

    I do not expect to make any trades within the next 2 weeks unless something jumps up to it's Sell Target as COF did a few days ago. That is the reason for so few in positive range, Many are new buys into a down market. Buys made after something sold at Price. It will take at least a month to get back up to serious profit again. Had I not replaced my stocks with new buys, I would be ~9% ($8965.14) up by my calculations. As much as I want to buy Short ETFs, that would invalidate my study here.
    Sep 23 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 80....... [View instapost]
    I weighed i above but am repeating my response about our troops into West Africa
    "IT You have to remember that I was just a lowly Enlisted man, never got above Sargent, so I have no clue why the Civilians send troops in anywhere. Remember they sent me to VN.
    My only guess is that they are either MP's to enforce Quarantines, or Logistics people to drop supplies into quarantined areas.
    They would never risk Medics to be "Hands on" in treatments as that requires highly trained people in HazMat gear. "
    The only way to slow the spread is quarantine. Ebola spreads only by personal contact. In order to get food into quarantined areas, airdrops are necessary.
    Sep 23 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 80....... [View instapost]
    IT You have to remember that I was just a lowly Enlisted man, never got above Sargent, so I have no clue why the Civilians send troops in anywhere. Remember they sent me to VN.
    My only guess is that they are either MP's to enforce Quarantines, or Logistics people to drop supplies into quarantined areas.
    They would never risk Medics to be "Hands on" in treatments as that requires highly trained people in HazMat gear.
    Sep 23 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 79....  [View instapost]
    The buy theories are pretty good there CB, but how do you set your sell targets?
    I had some similar success as you on the buy side for many years, but always seemed to miss on my sell targets until now. I too made quite a bit on NFLX , but hit my sell at 481.29 after buying at 450.98.
    Sep 23 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 4 [View instapost]
    IT
    You clearly have completely misunderstood how what I do works.
    There is no need for heavy computing power, nor daily watching of my investments, The system is simple. you get a basket of 10 stocks and select the best 8. After that you only have to set the sell targets presented. A position is only closed out at Price Target or 3 months, whichever comes first.
    That is the method. The only excess trading I have done is because many of my stocks have hit their original price targets, such as my COF selling today at it's $84.28 target set when I bought it at $78.85.

    The rest of what I do is beta testing the website and is completely unnecessary for anyone who is not a tester to mess with.
    Sep 23 06:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 80....... [View instapost]
    The Turks and the Kurds have a long history of mutual "Ethnic Cleansing" in areas that they control. While Saddam had such tight control of Iraq, The Kurds were treating Turkey like Hamas is Israel. Kurds, in an attempt to succeed from turkey indeed acted as a terrorist organization, and it has only been since the US carved out a portion of Iraq for the Kurds that they have backed off in their attacks on Turkey. I was unaware that there were still and Kurds in Syria since they were given a "homeland" in Northeast Iraq. I do know that there are still quite a few in Iran, and clash with the Iranians regularly.
    I do not understand why there should still be clashes between the Kurds and Turkey, as the Kurds use a pipeline that runs from their region of Iraq through Turkey for export (of course, the Turks get their cut of any oil passing through that pipeline).
    Technically, the oil is being sold by the Iraq Government in order to be sold internationally, as Terrorist Organizations like the PPK, have no bank access, but it's all done with a wink and a nod. Similarly, there is other oil that goes out through Basra from the NE Iraq Oilfields. Again, The Kurds benefit from this, as well as the Iraq Gov.
    On 60 minutes tonight there was a lot of information about Isis, including the fact that they are themselves able to sell oil from Iraq, and their income was estimated by 60 Minutes as "$6 million/Day", part of which is donations.
    I know I'm getting old and perhaps a bit senile, but I just cannot understand why anyone would support a religious sect whose policies and practices are so inhumane. Surely they must know that they cannot control such people, and while they may get some gain from them in the near term, in the longer term, these people will kill everyone that does not kill them first. I seriously doubt that they are even able to get help from Russia; for while they are a threat to Iraq, they are also a threat to Assad, whom the Russians support.
    The leader of Isis is so radical, Al Queda disowned him and put a price on his head.
    Sep 21 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    @widglo
    BTFs are available on some 2500 stocks daily through blockdesk.com. Each day the Range index is calculated, whether high or low, and the historical price ranges recorded. In other words, any and all Range Indexes ARE calculated and recorded, and the subsequent price movements tracked. That is what created the database that allows Peter to pull out stocks with a 94% chance of hitting their Price Targets.


    All you need to do is look at the above graphic to see that every Range Index for the 6 months prior were plotted.
    Sep 21 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 80....... [View instapost]
    My COF hit it's PT today and sold.
    I'm awaiting some stabilization before re-investing.
    Sep 19 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    In my study, I use the PT and TT of the original BTF, established by the original Int List. That is just how my study was set up, and you may or may not decide to go differently. I had to use the same Price Targets and Time Targets for my study so that the outcomes would be comparable. I had to do it that way in order to provide consistency.
    By that I mean that some people may chose to buy stocks 1,3,5,7 on day 2, while others may buy 2,3,5,8 on day 2. I had to set some basis across all lines for the study.

    In my RLP, I use the data from the most current BTF for my targets. In the Real World, I also frankly drop or raise my sell target a few cents in many cases depending upon my DD.
    I adjust a small amount depending on what my DD shows, but I did not do my usual DD on all the stocks in the studies, so I make no adjustments.
    I know that I have to stick to the Data in the Int Lists for my studies; but when you have a stock that just stays as a buy week after week like (JAZZ) did, I (in my Real World Portfolio) do cheat and add a bit of expectation. Like anyone else, I am human. In such cases, I'll buy on dips, but I'm not sure how to do a study using adding on dips within a study.

    I will try to set some parameters and do such a study. I am just starting one, so I can add that as a "side Study" to the main study. My new study will try to test the value (or lack thereof) of the "Weighted R-R" column. I am going to use not just Peter's Weighting method, but my own as well. Mine will weight the stocks with "prior experiences" as a % of total samples, where his uses the number of prior experiences as an absolute, regardless of the total samples.
    By that I mean 50 of 500 priors will get the same weight as 100 of 1000, where Peter would weight the 100 as 2x the value of the 100, regardless of total history. It may be that neither has great value, or that his has greater value than mine, 3 months will tell. I will explain all this in my next blog after my current study is complete.
    Sep 18 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 79....  [View instapost]
    LMAO
    I don't lose a lot of sleep over my RLP and a lot less over Play Money.
    Those formulas are for a study that just started on the 15th, and no purchases have been made with the data as yet. Meantime, I had a stock hit it's sell target, and offset it by unloading my losing position in BIIB. My strategy right now is just to reduce my "Margin"
    Meantime, I have not heard cbowman release any data at all on her strategy, trades, or reasoning. I have been quite forthcoming in sharing my work, I await her return so she can share hers. We don't even know what she holds, or even if that trade in WAG was a buy or sell.
    Sep 17 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 79....  [View instapost]
    By definition, if contamination occurs, the construction was faulty, either in design or execution.
    This is not to say that there "IS" a proper method of constructing a Fracking well, only that what they have been doing is faulty. They can put a lot of lipstick on pigs........
    Sep 17 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    Stocks from my June 26 list have come and gone with quite a bit of profit along the way. I'll be closing out that study on the 26th of this month. Indications are that (from the stocks listed then) a stock should stay in the "Favorable" (>87%) range for at least 2 days and 5 is better. Stocks that pop in then aout and don't come back into the Buy Range, are having considerably less success than ones that stay in. I'll give the full report on them in my other Blog at http://seekingalpha.co...
    After the study concludes on the 26th. I'll go count the Market Days on a calendar to make sure that I use all 63.
    I have started another study using less stocks and another criteria, which I will start posting on in a new Blog after my "Analysis Blog" is completed and I will move it to a blog of "Completed Studies". I have several going on, but lack enough days of Data on most to post anything as yet.
    I hope you will check in occasionally to see if there is anything useful discovered.
    Sep 17 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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