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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Most-Watched Stocks & ETFs On SA, Compared Via Market-Maker Risk And Reward Forecasts [View article]
    Aye, my JAZZ jumped >4% and the QCOR in my "Paper Portfolio" is up >3% but then, it's a buyout target.
    S&P Futures are up overseas tonight as of ~1:40 AM Eastern.
    Gold up to about 1317 as well, so maybe we'll get a bit of a continuation at least early AM.
    Any idea why?
    Apr 10 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most-Watched Stocks & ETFs On SA, Compared Via Market-Maker Risk And Reward Forecasts [View article]
    While I do not do Options, CAT would not be as desirable on this tool as say the 3 and 15. The diagonal line means equal risk to reward, while those further to the right have greater upside than downside risk in a Long position. "Being Stable" actually means less opportunity than having some volatility. As Peter said, stable stocks are just a place "whose current job is to provide a hiding place from those kind of potential risks -- and rewards."
    I am again speaking about taking advantage of stocks further right and down as Long positions.
    Perhaps Options speak differently-I make no pretense of understanding Option Strategies.
    To a Long, Volatility=Opportunity. Stocks have to move to generate wealth, and the MMs apparently see more opportunity in 11,3, and 7 as they have the same risk as CAT; but more potential upside.
    Apr 9 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....  [View instapost]
    Well, Gold briefly broke 1310, but hit heavy resistance. There is your real indicator of inflation. As long as interest rates and gold stay low, inflation has not yet begun. Interest rates can be artificially low; but when people have little demand for gold,, that is your indicator.
    This requires BOTH to stay low. If banks can make a profit without seeing their money devalue, they can keep interest low. If they smell deterioration, no "Fed Rate" will keep interest down.
    By the same token, the masses speak through gold/silver.
    Where there is true inflation is in the Market, where PEs are going skyward. Try to find a basket of 10 stocks with a PE under 20 among the S&P (that aren't in big trouble).
    Apr 9 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Hilton helps Weather Channel, DirecTV resolve difference [View news story]
    History Chanel is now Alien Invaders Chanel anyway, so now maybe I can catch History on TWC.
    Apr 9 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best-Buy Wealth-Building Bets, Odds-On Payoffs, In 6 Months Or Less [View article]
    Aye This takes a bit of faith that will hopefully build with time. It's hard to set new disciplines and stick to them. I see (JAZZ) climbing again today.
    Apr 9 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs: Comparing The Incomparables, A Second Time [View article]
    I like to make about 1 buy/week, depending upon if I have closeouts, but more than 8 positions takes away from my research. I still like to research about 1 stock/day in depth. Between playing with a list in a "Paper" Portfolio Challenge, and my RLP and running tests for G. I keep pretty busy. Looking to buy a Position in the AM if the markets open leaning up. If they are leaning down, I can likely pick something up at a lower price later or the next day.

    I can project out an approximate RI for a day or maybe 2 now, depending on volatility. If things get too unstable, I can step back and just watch a while.
    If one compares the above list to previous articles on Long Levered ETFs, and compares general Market sentiment, the same names seem to pop up regularly. Not that I would buy on such a hunch; but when Peter again produces an article on these ETFs, then I already have a jump on what to concentrate my DD on.

    More volatility means more opportunity! Something will get oversold if we just look. Perhaps the biggest dogma fallacy of the Buy and Hold proponents is in the oft heard statement that Beta is a proxy for Risk. That would be true if stocks moved in straight lines without dips or peaks; but we all know that is not reality. Those dips and spikes are opportunities if they can just be correctly identified.
    The above Data is that very information-Imperfect, certainly, but miles above anything I ever heard from "Analysts".
    Most of you have probably noticed the increased volatility of the Market this year. It just so happens that I just produced the most wealth in one Q that I ever have.
    Thank you Peter.
    Apr 9 03:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....  [View instapost]
    My Bad. I must have hit 3 months instead of YTD
    I agree with 67.50
    Regardless, it aint pretty this year yet, and If I was lucky enough to get it on IPO, I sure wouldn't still be holding it ex-contract.
    Apr 8 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs: Comparing The Incomparables, A Second Time [View article]
    Just to add 1 thought. What we are offered here are "odds". In order to take the best advantage of these, my experience as I have followed Peter is to diversify by buying a "Basket" of several good looking "odds-on" stocks. Occasionally there will be an outlier (one that takes a hit). My success is with 4-8 stocks from several of Peter's articles, and watch the total "NAV" of my basket while awaiting some to hit their Forecast High, while others are closed out at 63 Market Days.
    The Cred Ratio is helpful as well in a confidence level despite frequent short term pullbacks as the basket builds.
    Just my opinion.
    Apr 8 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....  [View instapost]
    My chart shows it at 59.29 Close Jan 2 and $41.78 today.
    Range $38.8-$74.73.
    44.09% below high. Short Interest as of 3/15 8.31%
    Nothing to Cherry pick there, that is hard Data.
    Apr 8 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....  [View instapost]
    I just wish that they had been more specific on the differences in calculations. They had pretty charts, but quoted no hard data.
    Now I'm not necessarily disagreeing with them, just that it's impossible to judge their claims without specifics.
    It at face value, appears to be just another "Conspiracy Theory" site until they show the basis of their claims.
    It is far too easy to get people who are already distrustful of something to buy into wild claims and "Chicken Little" attacks.
    Show me the PROOF!!!!
    Apr 8 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best-Buy Wealth-Building Bets, Odds-On Payoffs, In 6 Months Or Less [View article]
    As I was editing the above for Typos, it got distorted by some system bug. I think I have corrected it now, at least I hope so. Comments are invited.
    Apr 8 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best-Buy Wealth-Building Bets, Odds-On Payoffs, In 6 Months Or Less [View article]
    @ilovefastgraphs

    Schwab reports JAZZ up 5.6% as of after hours fro open.
    TD Ameritrade reports up 4.38% during normal hours.
    Internationally, S&P Futures up .03% NASD up .03%, Dow Futures up .06% 7:39 Eastern
    I don't know what you paid or your Risk Tolerance; but I have been following Peter quite a while, and even have a Blog regarding Blockdesk.com.

    The usual stated strategy is to sell at the forecast high, or 63 Market Days, whichever comes first.

    The FAQ at http://bit.ly/1dgiX8t should be of help; and I hope my Blog at http://bit.ly/ZMgnfB might be of help also

    I only sell a stock early if there is an unusual company event such as (MDSO)'s BOD voting to double the number of shares sold diluting the shares out. It is not a Split, just a share dump.
    Other events such as having to restate earnings etc. can murder a stock; however JAZZ fell partly on rumors that they were going to buy (ARIA) for >$20/share (it's at $7.3 today). Rumors since denied.
    Looking at a Cred Ratio of .9 for JAZZ, I personally would be optimistic that it will recover considerably.
    Concerning the "Cred Ratio", I am going to quote Peter's explanation from a referenced article.

    "The Cred.(ibility) Ratio is a simple measure of how the current sell target upside prospect is supported by the previously achieved % payoffs from similar Range Index events in the sample from history. That test is, when subjected to our standard test of 'was the sell target reached in 3 months, and if not, when closed out, what was the average simple % gain on all of the experiences?' "
    .9 would equal 90%, meaning that in similar conditions, even if sold at 63 Market Days, the stock sold for an average of ~90% of the forecast high.
    Peter please correct me if my interpretation needs adjustment.
    Apr 8 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....  [View instapost]
    By 1997, slightly over 300,000 VN Vets had committed suicide, or had died suspiciously like single-vehicle motorcycle accidents. At that time the VA admitted that veterans who had been combat wounded were 6 times more likely to kill themselves than their peers. That was the last year that they released statistics. Now I know a lot of my friends suffer from Agent Orange effects, but not all are fatal. Chloracne is the most common (think constant boils all over your torso). The one killer that the VA will not attribute to Agent Orange that so many of us have is kidney failure. It's as common as most of the other effects, but is the most expensive to treat. In my MOPH group, about 1/3 have kidney disease-mine are about 40% functional. Suicide is still the biggest single cause behind only vascular disease-especially cardiac vessels. The VA has put us on the back burner these days due to all the new vets, so don't expect much more statistic analysis of us anymore.
    Apr 8 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #15.......  [View instapost]
    Oops, my bad, I didn't look at today's moves
    Need to change Sells and Stops
    ADS Sell 288.04 Stop Same
    ETE Sell 50.51 Stop 43.13
    QCOR Sell 89.46 Stop 70
    SNDK Sell 87.76 Stop Same
    please don't buy QCOR above $83 if it is above that at Open
    Apr 7 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    The value of the Credibility Ratio is hard to underestimate. I quote from my latest addition:
    ""The Cred.(ibility) Ratio is a simple measure of how the current sell target upside prospect is supported by the previously achieved % payoffs from similar Range Index events in the sample from history. That test is, when subjected to our standard test of 'was the sell target reached in 3 months, and if not, when closed out, what was the average simple % gain on all of the experiences?' ...
    **The Cred Ratio is especially important when a Graphic Display is confusing with many spikes or "Flat-Line" areas when there were no daily expectations. Any confusing graphic display should lead you to look at the Cred Ratio, and in my experience, any Cred Ratio below 1 (100%) requires extra DD before a purchase.**"
    A negative Cred Ratio is, to me, a Red Flag. There are not many situations where I would buy a stock with a negative Credibility Ratio.
    Apr 7 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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