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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    It was only a whim, at least with Schwab I get a full service bank with interest bearing checking. As long as I stay above 5K in my trading account I can Margin, and that is more like what I like to keep in my checking account. Since I had to spend ~15K last summer on med bills, Roof, Plumbing, Etc, I just have to watch my day trading as I will have to probably wait until summer before I can risk being labeled a Pattern Day Trader, and have to keep 25k in my "Trading" account.
    As for the Challenge, I dodged a bullet there. Now back into nice safe profitable territory. I got caught a bit surprised by the depth of that drop, but not surprised a drop happened. People were having to sell stocks to pay margin calls on Oil stocks as well as futures contracts. It's all back to normal again. I expect a >5% gain in the S&P by NY.
    That means S&P 500 to > 2200 by Jan 1. Mark your calendars.
    In my RLP going to buy JAZZ, N, TYL and AET this week or early next week probably.
    I'll list my Challenge trades on that page.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    I was perusing some of the $4.95 Online Brokers last weekend. and from what I see, almost all of the ones that cheap have some "Angle" to dip into my pocket, like high margin interest or other subtle fees.

    Anyone have anything good to say about any of them?

    I like Schwab for their banking service as well as no extra fee for Level 2. Some of those $5 brokerages don't even mention level 2 availability or it's high priced.

    I only make about 20 trades/quarter right now. I had to cut back so I can take care of my wife since her stroke.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    I went about 80% cash last summer, and even the few buys I have made since then are down about 1.6% since September. Just a small %, but shows how tough it has been to pick winners this fall.
    Actually, I needed the Tax write-down anyway. I had a really good summer. Too bad I had to spend so much of it on medical bills. The Medical Write-off should be a lots looser IMO now that O-Care is in. IMO there should be no minimum % of income before you can start writing Medical $ off. maybe a lower % but it should kick in right away.
    <drops 2 cents on the table>
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 94.... [View instapost]
    Yeah, you don't want to be buying into a "Dead Cat" Bounce. I want to see some volume buying before stepping into a dip.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 93.... [View instapost]
    My results personally are considerably different, as in this Challenge I have been following only 1 method, while in RL I play with 3x Levered Shorts, Levered Longs, and my sell targets are lower, thus I do not hold things that will hurt me.

    I certainly do more DD on stocks I am putting RL money into, and I DO NOT use Margin in a bear market in RL like I do in-game.
    I have been up over 12% in this game on 2 occasions, but now, for the very first time, am in a Loss situation. If stocks do not recover some this week, I may get a Margin Call-something I would never chance in RL.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 93.... [View instapost]
    If you were alive back when OPEC first flexed it's muscle, you will remember that their Embargo as well as their ubity was based upon the 1973 Arab Israeli war. OPEC has grown since then to include many non-Arab countries, and currently has no unifying "cause". For those reasons; as well as increased US and world production, as well as decreasing demand worldwide, oil will continue to slide until the buyers step back in.
    Declining exports from China means less buying from the only country with the money to stop oil from declining further, but China has no desire to see oil rise.
    That leaves the EU. Unless their economies rebound, I see nothing to halt oil price declines anytime soon.

    What, I ask, can stop it at any price? There are countries like Venezuela, that will sell it at a loss for the cash flow. Libya as well as Iran, Russia and Iraq will all sell at a loss for the same reason.
    Only when China and the EU both start buying will oil halt, and I do not see that within at least the next 2-3 quarters.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    That is not far from what I talk about on my other Blogs; but in this bear market I would not go for as many as 10. I need to make some corrections in that Blog as it is no longer current in many respects. For 1 thing, If I buy a stock, whether in a bunch or to replace one that has hit it's target, I use the most recent BTF before the Buy for PT and TT.
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    In order to burn fewer BTFs while following stocks, I use some of the other tools like the Odds/Payoff tool and the Risk Reward Tool. That way you can tell a lot about a fair number of stocks using just one tool, then focus in on the stocks that are in the favorable spots in those tools.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    BTW:
    Did you notice that tonight is the deadline for a Debt Increase bill to pass? If it doesn't, we may see another Gov Shutdown.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    I added to my TZA today in my RLP. Must watch it closely tomorrow to see if I dare hold it over the weekend.

    Did you notice that tonight is the deadline for a Debt Increase bill to pass? If it doesn't, we may see another Gov Shutdown.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @User 28775055:
    Actually that very question, when posed by you in one of my Blogs, caused me to really think through a proper answer.

    In the end, I had to write an entire Instablog to fully explain why I chose to buy a stock. (It's at: http://bit.ly/1DjgWYo ).

    The short answer is : I personally require a stock to have Odds ≥87% (7/8), a Cred Ratio of ≥ .9 initially, and to have stayed at ≥ 85% Odds and a .9 Cred Ratio for more than 1 day. (3-5 days is better). I also want to see a stable Weighted R-R Ratio. A decrease in Weighted R-R Ratio of > 10% is, to me, a warning, and >15% means no. All else being equal, I look at the Days Held column as time is also a cost of investment, and one of great significance. If I have been following a stock for multiple days, and decide to buy, I will use the most current BTF Price Target as my sell target.
    However: I hope you have the time to look at that newest Blog for a detailed description of my reasoning process.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    Thank you for reading anyway. I think that just the idea of spending the weekly time to be a really active investor can be intimidating, and people often underestimate their own intelligence.
    Your knowledge of plants and gardening shows you have a great capacity, so I do not believe that you can not grasp this eventually. I think that someday a switch will click on and you will have that "Ah Ha" moment.
    Dec 11, 2014. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    Geesh Al
    I could smell that pile clear out here in the Desert!
    <holds nose and fires up Candles>
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    IT you might want to look at the DOW again. It being above 17k must pass through 17k to get to 16k.
    If you mean 18 or 17, I'll take 18K for 1000 Alex <Jeopardy Tune>.
    I sure hope it is a buying opportunity because I went from <30% invested to ~80% this week. These are all min 1 month and max 3 month positions except a dabble in TZA. TZA was good to me today, but overseas markets are climbing last I looked so TZA should open lower.
    Will it stay down? I'm not sure if I have the caj***s to stay with it all day tomorrow.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @tTF
    The Time Constraints referred to by Peter are simply inserting Time into the formula for investing returns as expressed in an article a while back: "Time Investment Means More To Your Portfolio's Performance Than Capital Investment" :http://bit.ly/1aJ1mC6 from back in Feb of 2013.
    I quote here:
    First, the role of time in measuring investment returns

    The scorecard of investing is kept in terms of rate of return. The largest part of the returns can come from price changes, rather than dividends, when the investor recognizes that time is the factor in the return equation that has the most muscle. That is because it is, in algebraic terms, a power element, while all the others are linear functions.

    R= (1+(P2-P1+D) /P1) ^(1/T)-1, where Ps are prices, D is dividend, and T is time."
    (I had to insert a space in several steps of the equation or SA truncates it. The Spaces I put in are after the =, before the / and before the ^.)
    This is just informational and not meant to be argumentative.

    The way Time is used by Peter's system is to have not only a Price Target, but also a Time Target as an exit point. (63 Market Days)
    This is in part due to tracking the performance of a stock after certain conditions are met means that the further from those conditions, the less precise the predictions (as a rule).
    The other part of the reason for the Time Exit Point is to re-deploy Capital that is under-performing (has not reached it's Price within a fixed time) and move it to more attractive positions.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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