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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Thanks 64, I had not had it explained before.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    I went short with some FAZ today and got my lunch eaten. Lost ~$350 in the Challenge.

    BTW I posted a new Blog today at http://seekingalpha.co...
    It's a BTF for dummies handbook showing a lot of the data that those forecasts reveal.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    I got so ruined in Viet Nam by eating Tree-ripened Bananas that it was years before I could enjoy these "Production Crop" kinda yellowish thingies.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    As always, Comments and questions are invited.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views [View instapost]
    I just posted a new Blog focusing almost exclusivly on the Data in BTFs at http://seekingalpha.co...
    If it leaves any of your questions unanswered, please ask.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    I just posted a new Blog focusing almost exclusivly on the Data in BTFs at http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views [View instapost]
    To me the "Buy Range" starts with Odds ≥87% and a Cred Ratio of .9 or greater.
    At this point, you can begin DD on stocks you like; but there is so much other information that in order to explore it fully, I am going to write another Blog to fully explain all that I have discovered. It will take me maybe an hour or 2, but I will post a link here as soon as I am done.
    It's such an important question that I can only fully explore it using a list of BTFs.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    Here is an interesting thought:
    With the price of oil so low and no recovery in sight, who and why would the cash-strapped companies (as well as their financiers) begin construction on the XL Pipeline? Considering the grade of the product and the subsequent costs to refine it, how many years will it be before it is economically feasible to break ground?
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Very good arguments Peter, plus AAPL has stayed within the "Buy" Range for many days now, thus putting it into a region few stocks enjoy as I showed in my study.
    That said, there is one thing bothering me, and that is that AAPL had an Odds Weighted ratio of ~14.79 on the day of this BTF which has dropped to ~11.51 as of the 8th. This is still a pretty good number, but represents a ~22% drop in 2 market days.

    This certainly bears watching. Since it is well understood that short term swings usually are self-correcting, I am not ready to write AAPL off as too risky certainly; but I am also not ready to spend my Soc Sec Check on it just yet. The Unweighted Risk-Reward Ratio is essentially unchanged.

    The worrying part of these calculations is that they come at least as much from the Odds side rather than the Sample Size part of the equation.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @rxd2
    You are exactly right. It will be touted as another benefit of being in the Apple "Club"

    The fact remains though that the world is watching AAPL's Holiday Quarter. The MM's have a positive view right now; but they are human and many/most were caught by surprise when AAPL fell off the $700 cliff several years ago. I consider an investment in AAPL the Company as risky now as it was back in the $500 range. It may go 20% in either direction and it will all depend on Holiday Quarter sales.
    AAPL has lost ~2% since this article was written. Part is certainly because the Market Tanked some today (Monday), but when AAPL is strong, it resists DOW movements, and creates it's own NQ "wake" (meaning the NASDQ is so AAPL weighted that it moves the index, not the opposite).
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Considering that retailers have to pay AAPL a % of each purchase, whereas if Target's "Store Card" is not a Visa/MC/whatever, Target would be in the position of extracting probably in excess of 20% interest on any balances not paid by the end of the first statement + any bonus extension, Target is unlikely to give any discount to Apple Pay.

    Apple Pay is far cheaper than what Visa/MC/AMEX etc charge per transaction, so they should favor it some; but it is not the Cash Cow that the Store Card 20%+ interest rate is planned to be.
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    Addendum to the above as the editing timer ran out while I enjoyed my Pizza:
    I just wanted to add that AAPL's 0.9 Cred Ratio is still very buyable. My personal "Be Careful" CR is 0.7, with 0.8 being a warning to do extra DD. Below 0.6, I look elsewhere usually.

    Although not ready to Publish, I have built up a fair sized data-base of info on using the "Weighted R-R Ratio combined with the Cred Ratio as a predictor. I have a ton of Data now, I just need to find time to sort it and discover what it shows.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    No problem Anarchist. It's not like there are a big bunch of posts to sort through.
    I'm not buying AAPL at Open Tuesday yet as markets are rather neutral to down a little overseas.
    S&P 500 Futures 2,058.65 -0.85 -0.04%
    NQ 100 Futures 4,279.80 +0.80 +0.02%
    Looking also at a couple others that have good BTFs- Better Cred Ratios than AAPL's
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    I'll let you all talk Options strategies here if you like, I have no objection if you keep it civil. I just want to emphasize the quote I got from Blockdesk.com;
    "Our products are aimed at equities and ETFs, using Long strategy. While a user may have ideas about doing things with options, we make no recommendation that our tools are designed for options strategies.".

    Personally, I see a Monday dip in AAPL which appears to be a good entry point based upon Peter's Article for a Long position.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 90.....  [View instapost]
    Did I miss something or some post that got pulled?
    I can't imagine getting hostile over someone questioning my picks. I may not win, but I'm not hurting either and if I pick something, I have a time frame to watch it.
    Even if I was down, It would still be a learning experience.
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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