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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    @Derwood:
    I found the article that sent me to the wrong page, It was in a post by Sawdustmaker
    "You could still go to ElliotWaveTrader.net and see the real meal being served instead of the slightly watered down not for subscribers version free of charge. But as you have already made clear you have no need to do so as you already know what you need to know. Yet you ask ME to prove you wrong? "
    Thus if you highlight that and right click it, you get sent to hyperspace.
    Again, using 2 t's is the correct addy.
    Dec 24, 2014. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    Derwood:
    I simply highlighted the quoted address on the post, right clicked and it gave me the option to go to that link. If it was a spelling error, it was in that post (which I now cannot find). Using 2 t's got me to AVI's site, so I can only assume that someone set up a site with 1 t to try to script careless typists without security software. A practice not uncommon among hackers of the ScriptKiddie ilk.
    I repeat, I got no security warnings with the proper spelling, just AVI's Page.
    Doug:
    I was referring to CoinsK who is a Coin Dealer. He addresses our discussion accurately.
    I will look at your link and bookmark it for possible investment purposes. That is an entirely different subject. Obviously, when someone is using investment quantity purchases, you would no longer be using Retail-like markups.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Not sure why the market is so erratic and generally bearish considering all the good economic news of US Jobs, Productivity, and the best rise in GDP since the recession began,; but I feel that the next week should set the tone for much of 2015. I am never quite able to grasp why a stock that is increasing it's market share, EPS, and decreasing it's debt should be falling like DXPE did, while companies like Amazon (that have NEVER shown a profit) can still stay at >$300/share.
    In fact, DXPE was recently announced as in the "Top 4 NASDAQ Stocks In The Industrial Equipment Wholesale Industry With The Highest Profit Margin", meanwhile dropping from near $70/share to below $50 earlier this month. With a PE of 12.8, and a share buyback having been announced the 17th, I am going to be ready to double down if the overall market shows some signs of life.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    @mrtechbarter
    I need to make a correction on the number of stocks you can enter in each Tool. You do get 50 in the Volatility Tool, but then only 20 in the other 2 tools. The reason I never noticed that was explained in a conversation with help@blockdesk.com where they said :

    'There is no specific feedback about exceeding the limit, because we encourage the user to always submit more than the limit in case one or more of their list is non-current. That way, they ensure getting a full 20 at a whack for O-P and R:R. Users can (and should!) submit more than 20 tickers, and it will just cheerfully spit out the first 20 that are available with current data and without any negative feedback. Prioritize the list with the most important ones first, and least important last."

    What that meant was that as I would enter more than 20 in the R-R and OP Tools, it never gave me an "Exceeded Quantity" message as it's ok to enter more. If you notice, if several stocks plot out the same, it sets 1 number there and there may be 10 or more stocks that are very close, so are all assigned to that number. Since I am only looking at the stocks well into the favorable range, I just figured that the dropped stocks did not meet all my criteria filters like # of similar prior experiences.

    My target,which now is almost always re-investing money from closed positions is that I am looking for (usually) no more than 2 positions to fill at one time, so I filter out all but ~4 stocks per 1 position to fill. For that reason, my lists of stock candidates is rarely more than 20-30, and for that reason, I quit looking at the max number of stocks possible to enter perhaps a year ago during Beta when we could enter 50 per tool.

    It does not affect my procedure as I am extracting the best 4-6 per Tool anyway, so I note the good ones and move to the next tool. (I have been helping the site for <i think> like 3 years now, so I often do not notice changes on the site as quickly as I should. Blame Pain Meds as well.)
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    @SKS1586
    I have heard some serious horror stories about the actual holdings of a couple ETFs like GLD and SLV. I cannot attest to their validity, but I think I will avoid those personally.
    Indeed on the ROI. I did better than 10% on my stock accounts this year, but I would really hate to have to take that off the top even before taxes. I have only a few old coins, no real PM investment.
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    I personally rather like to start with 30-40 in each and see what pops out. I run the R-R first, then the Volatility and the Odds vs Payoff last.
    As a rule, I generally have a pretty short list of ~20 left over from the last run, to which I add new ideas. I often go back to previous months and look at some charts for my extras. I also developed a ranking system which I am backtesting that is similar to Peter's Weighted R-R Ratio, except I factor in the Cred Ratio, as well as normalizing the prior experiences as a % of Total rather than an absolute. I have yet to prove my system any more predictive than Peter's so I won't go into it until I am ready to post it in a Blog.
    Of course, If I have a fresh Int List, I start with that, but again I rank my best 10 with a mildly different formula.
    If I have the time, I have another Blog almost ready, but Christmas is interfering in my time Bigtime!.
    I need to make some minor updates to my other Blogs, like in 1 or 2 I say I use the Original date after several days of cross-testing, but I meant that to be "in the Study for consistancy" where in RL I use my latest BTF Data for Time and Price Targets. I just have not had time to do full updates in my Blogs. You might find them useful, they are at:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 22, 2014. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Their hackers are trained in China, and are among the top mathematicians anywhere.
    In that uber closed society, children with math ability are singled out by age 7 and their math training is only exceeded by their brainwashing.
    Another example of NK's dedication to destroying the US is their monetary Forgery ability which is truly legendary. NK is the reason for all of the changes in paper US money in the last 2 decades. Do NOT underestimate them, nor the embarrassment that is probable at Sony. Any large Corporation that is as international as Sony is has a LOT to hide, not the least of which were the racial slurs and jokes in the emails about Obama as well as Angelina Jo whatshername. There will be more leaks in the near future whether Sony caves in even more or not. That is just how this world is.
    I personally do not think the worst, most embarrassing email in the world is worth even 1 young person's life, so what do you all propose? It's either a war of words, which we cannot win because our press blows everything out of proportion, or a nuclear exchange, which may well terminate our fragile climate even if just blown up at sea.
    Dec 21, 2014. 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    I tried to go to that link "elliotwavetrader.net" but my security programs blocked me out due to poor reputation and reported risks. I am not making this up and have no axe to grind. In fact this is my first visit to any of AVI's articles.
    I use McAfee and WOT and both strongly advised me not to proceed.

    Maybe if he gets back on SA AVI can explain the "Untrusted Site" tag to McAfee.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Give Thanks For Gold Being On Sale [View article]
    We're not all so lucky as to own a Coin Shop Coins. When I asked you about Premiums, you indicated that you charge 10%. Now I realize that most stores (except Groceries probably) have a 40% or greater markup so in that light 10% is not bad, but that still makes it hard for the retail investor to be talked into PM when they clearly see the Premium. It's like knowing exactly how much a Dealer pays for his cars on the Lot.

    It's not wrong to charge a premium (you have costs as well), it just seems that way when it's right in front of you.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's An Ill Wind, But ETF Sails Catch 'Em All [View article]
    While the 3x took a beating on the last day there, look at the trend on the RUSL. not pretty.
    This is another example of the inherent risk in 3x Shorts and what happens if you hold them just 1 day too long.

    I might play with that 3x if I am seeing the Ruble go back into Free-Fall, but only if I saw that now. Oil appears to be stabilizing if my "Tea Leaves" are right.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Good to hear your location John. I will probably be shooting along I80 towards Chicago next summer to visit my son if I can get Respite time for care of my wife. Likely will need a coffee refill by the time I get that far from New Mexico.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today: Top Of The VIX? Bottom For SVXY? [View article]
    @osolemio
    Perhaps I can clarify a little bit, although Peter is the final word. With an Intelligence List, you get 90 BTFs and 60 of each of the other 3 Tools, the Volatility Tool, The Risk-Reward Tool, and the Odds vs Payoff Tool.

    My experience is there is no limit of uses per month nor on which stocks you evaluate, except that you cannot exceed the total. You can use the 3 Tools to evaluate up to 50 stocks per Tool, but only 1 stock per BTF. By this I mean that you can (for Example) evaluate all 30 of the DOW plus 20 more in a Tool display, then run BTFs on the stocks that appeal to you the most (perhaps 6-10) What I do is run the same stocks through each of the Tools, extracting the ones most favored in each Tool. At the end, I have no more than 8-12 usually that show good positions in all 3 Tools. I will do this usually monthly so I have stocks already partly researched when something hits it's PT. I pick out the best and do a bit of DD ahead of time.

    Assuming I have already bought stocks, and just want to follow them, I will use just 1 Tool rather than all 3, and, depending upon what I am wanting to know about a given group of stocks, I may use any of the Tools;but IMO the R-R and Odds vs Payoff Tools, when combined, are the ones I like for tracking. I will even paste R-R charts atop one another (using partial opacity) in Photoshop like programs to follow dots across the chart).
    If you only buy 1 Int list/quarter, then 1 year would be $200; but I generally need more as so many stocks hit their Price Targets well before the 3 months has passed. Compared to the results I had before following Peter, the few $ spent at blockdesk.com is paying off well. If for no other reason, setting disciplined and reasonable Sell Points has always been the hardest part of investing (to Me). It is easy to find stocks that are moving up, It's a lot harder to know when to get out of the way IMO.

    I cannot comment on the $25 purchase options as I have yet to buy one of those.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    This year AAPL got overbought above 110. I do not expect it to stay above 110 for extended periods of time for quite a while, but IMO it should push into the low teens repeatedly. I will trade the volatility as it swings between extremes. In ~106-108 and out 113 or a little below if bought low.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 95...... [View instapost]
    Replying to Al's comment in Ch 94 here where he said ".Just like Buy and hold,your preserving the capital,big players hate day traders that haven't paid their tuition fee,what are you going to do ? "

    What the big guys hate even more than Day Traders that didn't pay tuition is Day Traders that have methods of tracking the big guys trades. No matter how well they disguise their trades, they are compulsive Hedgers. If you know the cost that the big kids pay to hedge, you can pretty well figure out just how risky a stock is. Follow the money. They disguise their trades by using different platforms and Markets, but the price of hedging those trades can't be easily hidden. Little traders don't use the hedges as much, so the hedging prices are disproportionally influenced by the big traders and the different hedging instruments they use.
    This is not to be confused with "Hedge Funds".

    What Hedge funds offer is only 1 method among many that the big players use to insure against unexpected swings against them. What is really revealing is what one Market Maker charges other Market Makers for that insurance. At that point you have deals being made among large players who are equally informed about the companies, and equally capable of using all the top technology as well. That is where the real deals are made, all us Day Traders can do is read the Tea Leaves, and get in and out with discipline.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Didn't get my price on (N) so didn't buy yet.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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