Don't count on either BBRY or NOK to be a buyout target. Nokia may well sell off NSN portion, but BBRY really has no synergies that would fit with anyone else. IMO If they are going to climb back into relevance, they will have to do it on their own, (the old fashioned way). Not saying that they can't by any means, but the best they could hope for would be a deal with a software company like Nokia did to get more Apps selling. They probably have enough apps to do what you want with a phone, but there is money in selling Games Etc.
What makes Intel so difficult to fit into the FCF/Dividend ratio is that it is not like a Ford or GM, whose equipment costs are replacing old machines or whatever. When Intel develops a new process, like going from 300mm wafers to 450mm wafers, the new process has an accruative value down the line. Suddenly they can get far more chips per wafer. A plant may need new equipment inside, but the property usually gains in value over time. Investment in equipment turns a FAB into a "Lights-Out" Fab, where it's zero Labor. Something I like about Intel, is that unlike many Tech companies, they manufacture in the US and pay US taxes Tax Rate 2012 2011 2010 26 27.2 28.6 Maybe some say that's bad for the investor, but in the long run, I try to shop local.
Intel has increased it's Dividend every year for the last 4 years. They probably won't this year since they are buying back so many shares. A quick look at their SEC filings tells you wonders.
I disagree that their cash expenditure is unsustainable. How do you come up with only 7 Billion FCF for 2012? In the last 3 years, Intel has reduced Share count by >10% You cannot count "All Property and equipment purchases" without allowing for the additional 3617 million additional accrued depreciation. Dividends paid out Net Income 2012 4530 .90/s 18884-11027+3617=11474 Shares 5160 P/O Ratio = 39.5% If you want true FCF you use http://bit.ly/180uCmb Accrued Depreciation is cash set aside to replace equipment. If you include property in your equation, you have to include Accrued Depreciation as Property is not consumed (unless you are mining) In the referenced article, 70% ratio is considered sustainable, but you pick whatever you want. Cash & Eq has increased 2010 10761 2011 12583 2012 15828 Shares 5696 5411 5160
Intel has only 2 14nm FABS nearing completion (Arizona and Oregon), and the 3rd in Ireland has been announced but to my knowledge, construction has not started. CapEx also includes the 450mm Wafer plants. I did not see them broken out from the other CapEx.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Heloise, I doubt that you are older than many here, much less most. I can remember the bug in DOS 2.5 where you couldn't have more than 256 entries in the Root Directory. Windows was indeed modeled after Apple's GUI, but what was relevant was that Apple of that era died and was reborn in the mid 90's when MSFT injected money into it, and didn't "Steal" anything, but bought it. The new Apple has only a passing interest in PC's or even laptops. All their money comes from Pods, Pads and Phones. Nokia had to go with MSFT because previous management had burned all their cash, and Nokia needed MSFT's money, OS, App Writers, and money, and money. They have started back to success by being an alternate to Apple and Blackberry's closed systems, and Android's eminently hackable systems. The Register reports that over 90% of Malware is written for Android right now. Nokia has, with Win8, complete compatibility with Windows Office, as well as other Win programs. They are still plagued by over reduction in manufacturing ability, which probably cost them a million 920 sales. Elop is far from perfect, but had Nokia gone Android when Elop arrived, they would be just another asterisk in phone history. They have climbed from 3.17 to 3.66 this week alone, so it may well hit $6 by 2014. Fact is that when it comes to Patents, both Apple and Samsung have to pay Nokia between 5-20 $ per phone sold depending on how many of Nokia's patents they use.
Is Nokia's AGM An Insidious Form Of Market Manipulation? [View article]
Mr K Good time to sell EA, as it went down a lot after hours because they lost so many WoW subscribers. 1.6 Million in fact. At about $14/month each, that is 38m a month in lost revenue. There is a snowball effect there as well, as a Gamer when I was younger, I know a little about Gamers. They form "Guilds" or kind of informal groups. When a few find a game that they like better, soon the whole group migrates out. Add to this, there are many players hired by Chinese or Indian companies who only play to generate "Game Money" that can be sold on websites for real world money. As the player base goes down, demand for these players diminishes. As for AAPL, there are a lot of rumors about low end Apple Phones about to be released, but I seriously doubt that Apple can compete in the Low End against all the $20 phones out there. I would like to have bought some BBRY at below $10 but now I think there will be a lot of manipulation there. The Shorters are leaving Nokia for now, and are going to hit BBRY I believe. I still think Nokia can easily be a $5 stock if they can build enough phones to meet demand.
While I have watched Nokia for years, I never thought to go long until around Nov 2012 when I realized that they were truly committed to a 3rd ecosystem, that being Windows, and Win 8 was going to be a reality. I never thought much about their win7 phones, as the SP wasn't reflecting well on their acceptance. Looking back yesterday, I got in at 2.699. Since then I have gotten in and (partially) out as the situation dictated. My only serious mistake was in not holding back after the "Sold Out" sign turned into "We can't build more" I am back to profitable average at ~$3.7 or so, but I am watching this 521 deal very closely. If the "Sold Out" sign again turns into "Supply Constraints", then I will know Elop is untrainable. I still plan on buying a 928, but it may not be as a Nokia Shareholder. (the 521 "sellout" may be survivable, but a 928 debacle like the 920 will bury Nokia)
This next week should be very telling as the "Days to Cover" column implies that the average shorts have until next Friday to bring the price down. I'm not saying that they cannot, as BBRY's Market Cap is small enough to be manipulable should enough players participate. The big question is, do the Longs have enough interest to support against all the stock that will be for sale next week? My guess is no, with the caveat that BBRY price should recover the following Monday. If I owned $BBRY, I would not set a very tight stop limit on it, as, like many Tech stocks, the Beta is just too high, and you could get sold off on a 2-3 day pressure. IMO AAPL, NOK, and BBRY are speculative right now. Any of the 3 could move on any given piece of news. Good luck all.
I agree Frank, I am long $NOK and own no $BBRY, but wish no ill will on Blackberry. I may even go long on a BBRY dip. Nokia is working hard to reestablish their place, and IMO Samsung/Google should be the ones in both our bullseyes. ($AAPL is probably already highly vulnerable) . IMO $BBRY's main strength is their security, and unless that comes into question, $BBRY should have a very good 2h 2013.
I agree TS, as that is how the shorts exited $NOK. With the announcement that the "Q10" had passed the DoD security tests earlier in the week, it will take a major stumble by BBRY Management to give the shorts hope.
Good data Seppo, but like the author said, one would expect a bigger price jump on that much covering. That said, the price has gone up gradually almost every day in May from ~$3.15 to $3.66 US today, so the shorts are covering more gradually rather than a huge pop. $BBRY is indeed interesting, as the shorts must feel they can bring $BBRY down in the coming weeks, rather than having to cover. As I look at 1 listing of today's expiring shorts, $15.5 Strike BBRY shorts lost $0.26 to .01 on a volume of 6,581 contracts. I'm no expert on Options, but it looks to me like a lot of "Shorts" ate their shorts today on $BBRY. and appear to be set up for a wild battle next week between the Shorts and the Longs over next Friday's price. Is there any news expected from Blackberry that might give the shorts hope? Or should we expect a very large volume of $BBRY traded next week?
Intel's Server Market Share To Decline As Competition Heats Up [View article]
"The processors include TSMC’s finFET technology that are said to be higher performing and more energy-efficient than the current chips" By Who? Reference please. "TSMC’s technology, when combined with the ARMv8 64-bit design, is expected to challenge Intel in the server and PC markets. " By Who? Reference please. I should never have clicked on this once I saw the Author. There is no new information, no references, no list of the "Top 100" nor by what standards. OK First penny is my bad, you won't get a second. It's such a shame that SA's editorial standards have sunk so low as to allow this type of garbage to be posted. Is SA that desperate for authors? ? ?
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
Intel: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
26 27.2 28.6
Maybe some say that's bad for the investor, but in the long run, I try to shop local.
Intel: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
Intel: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
How do you come up with only 7 Billion FCF for 2012?
In the last 3 years, Intel has reduced Share count by >10%
You cannot count "All Property and equipment purchases" without allowing for the additional 3617 million additional accrued depreciation.
Dividends paid out Net Income
2012 4530 .90/s 18884-11027+3617=11474 Shares 5160 P/O Ratio = 39.5%
If you want true FCF you use http://bit.ly/180uCmb
Accrued Depreciation is cash set aside to replace equipment. If you include property in your equation, you have to include Accrued Depreciation as Property is not consumed (unless you are mining)
In the referenced article, 70% ratio is considered sustainable, but you pick whatever you want.
Cash & Eq has increased 2010 10761 2011 12583 2012 15828
Shares 5696 5411 5160
Intel: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
CapEx also includes the 450mm Wafer plants. I did not see them broken out from the other CapEx.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
Is Nokia's AGM An Insidious Form Of Market Manipulation? [View article]
Good time to sell EA, as it went down a lot after hours because they lost so many WoW subscribers. 1.6 Million in fact. At about $14/month each, that is 38m a month in lost revenue. There is a snowball effect there as well, as a Gamer when I was younger, I know a little about Gamers. They form "Guilds" or kind of informal groups. When a few find a game that they like better, soon the whole group migrates out. Add to this, there are many players hired by Chinese or Indian companies who only play to generate "Game Money" that can be sold on websites for real world money. As the player base goes down, demand for these players diminishes.
As for AAPL, there are a lot of rumors about low end Apple Phones about to be released, but I seriously doubt that Apple can compete in the Low End against all the $20 phones out there.
I would like to have bought some BBRY at below $10 but now I think there will be a lot of manipulation there. The Shorters are leaving Nokia for now, and are going to hit BBRY I believe.
I still think Nokia can easily be a $5 stock if they can build enough phones to meet demand.
Elop's Nokia, A Portfolio Crusher? [View article]
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
The Fate That Awaits BlackBerry [View article]
$BBRY is indeed interesting, as the shorts must feel they can bring $BBRY down in the coming weeks, rather than having to cover. As I look at 1 listing of today's expiring shorts, $15.5 Strike BBRY shorts lost $0.26 to .01 on a volume of 6,581 contracts. I'm no expert on Options, but it looks to me like a lot of "Shorts" ate their shorts today on $BBRY. and appear to be set up for a wild battle next week between the Shorts and the Longs over next Friday's price. Is there any news expected from Blackberry that might give the shorts hope? Or should we expect a very large volume of $BBRY traded next week?
Intel's Server Market Share To Decline As Competition Heats Up [View article]
By Who? Reference please.
"TSMC’s technology, when combined with the ARMv8 64-bit design, is expected to challenge Intel in the server and PC markets. "
By Who? Reference please.
I should never have clicked on this once I saw the Author. There is no new information, no references, no list of the "Top 100" nor by what standards.
OK First penny is my bad, you won't get a second. It's such a shame that SA's editorial standards have sunk so low as to allow this type of garbage to be posted. Is SA that desperate for authors? ? ?