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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I think you are likely not far off OAG
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I've been both sick and busy. So much so that my latest bookmarked chapter was 111. It took me 20 min to catch up to this Blog.
    Well I was back on top in the Challenge for like 48 hours, then a dip and I'm first Loser again <sigh>
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Crade
    The US Median income is around 50k. Saving 25k means living on the remaining 10k that you get after taxes.
    This is a typical B&H strategy that so many people love, and 6/19 of us in the Challenge have shown we can beat the DJIA and we are not investment professionals. This is the same strategy that, as Peter Way says, causes people to look into their inherited portfolio and find a stack of Kodak, old GM, Sears Etc.
    All this is assuming that you have 30 more years before you retire. I turn 65 in August, but retired at 46 because I refuse to B&H.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @kimboslice
    Your observation that the market is an auction is exactly the reason that knowing the Market Maker sentiment works. At auction, something is only worth what another person is willing to pay for it.

    By analyzing the MM sentiment of what they are willing to pay to hedge a position, Peter can determine what the MMs are willing to pay for that position.

    Had similar paintings by that same artist sold in the immediate time frame around that auction, would not Sotheby's have had a better idea of the reserve to put on it? Peter shows you what people are willing to pay, and what they are likely to pay in the near future based upon similar past experiences.
    What you see above in figure 1 is Hard Data that can be tracked and the results tabulated.

    I reiterate what I said elsewhere. Why would one think that "Because we have always done it that way" is an acceptable answer ?
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    @Lbiasotto
    After re-reading my reply to you, I thought that I should spend a little more time talking about situations. When you talk about adding to a position and what to do surrounding that, I think it's important to make decisions based upon the size of the additional position, as well as the data revealed by the newest BTF. I based my answer upon an addition approaching equal sizes. Let's assume you have a position worth 5k and buy another ~5k, that should probably be viewed as a new position, and treated as such. That not only includes a new BTF, but also a new Time Target and likely a new Price Target. If however, you only add a couple k of stocks, then bookkeeping ease dictates that you maintain the original PT and TT.
    In any event, a new BTF is needed to help you decide the size and risk of the new capital. Even assuming a purchase of smaller size to the first position, one needs to look at the Price Target of the new position. If it is significantly different from the original, then again, it is probably best viewed as a new, separate position. Then too, you must consider your "Risk Tolerance". The new BTF will also tell you Risk-Reward information, which may well influence the size of the new position, as well as the PT and TT. I hope I did not confuse you more than I clarified; but very little in investing applies to all people and all conditions. Everyone's Risk Tolerance, Goals, and, of course, Portfolio is different, and must be taken on a case-by-case basis.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    @Lbiasotto
    The 63 days start from the BTF. and I always run BTFs before a buy. Even if it's 2 months later, I often look at the stocks from the list of stocks in the other tools, and if some look good I'll run it's BTF. If I like it, it starts from the last BTF as a new position. I keep each buy as independent. Others may work it differently, but I view each position as new, even if it's the same stock.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    The best indicator I have found is for a stock to stay favored (87% day 1 and 85% Minimum on subsequent days) for 2 or more consecutive days. More is often better.
    The analysis that I ran that supported this is another Blog at http://seekingalpha.co... .
    I am so convinced of the importance of that factor that I buy no stock that has not met that criteria. I hope that helps.
    I picked up a new list on the 10th, and one stock (RGR) already hit it's PT, with FTNT close behind. I should make a Watch List of the stocks in that list to see how the list in total does, the 2 I mentioned I only noticed because I had bought them. (FTNT hit on earnings today, and went up from it's close at $34.63 to $37.89 at the close of the "After Hours" session.)
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Long ETFs: Best Positioned 10 Of 30+ Now, As Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    @osolemio
    Thank you. I have been involved in Beta Testing blockdesk.com and am now a subscriber so I have >3 years of experience with Peter's work. If you have questions, do not hesitate to ask either in message, or by post in http://seekingalpha.co...

    Terry
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @ B&H
    I know I am unlikely to change your long held beliefs, but please take a moment to consider this.
    The fact is that what worked 50 years ago when Warren Buffet started is no longer "the only way to play". You don't use the same technology that you did 50 or even 20 years ago, why would you think that investing is the only thing in the world that has not changed either? Back then a Broker got ~10% on either end of a trade, so selling at less than a 20% gain was a loss.
    Today, brokerage commissions are an insignificant expense, while TIME is the most significant expense. Once spent, it can never be recovered like commissions and Fees. It is gone forever. As Peter explains so well in his FAQ, Capital in the investment formula is a constant, Gain is a variable; but Time is expressed as a"Power".
    You have Gain^Time in that formula.
    No I am not a Day Trader. I make about 5-8 trades per month depending on how quickly my stocks hit their Price Targets. I tried B&H and Blockdesk and make more now. I kept an open mind and tried both-will you dare?
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @Tony
    Despite your unabashed plug for your book, the idea here is not to minimize the impacts from Market Makers; but rather to take advantage of what their hedging reveals and use their activities to create wealth. Your methods are good DD material; but the MMs have far more data available than can be had by the retail investor. They not only have the fundamentals and technicals; but also the knowledge of what their very large customers are buying and selling and how that will move the Markets. When the big insurance companies and retirement funds want to move money, they turn to the Market Makers to get their orders filled with a minimum of movements of the stocks in the wrong direction.
    If you give this methodology a run around the block a time or 2, I think you might be surprised. I know I was.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @rippoxl
    The MM analysis is a proprietary system that Blockdesk.com uses. They analyze the hedging activities of the Market Makers and from that data determine what the MMs think a stock is worth. Consider that the Market Makers must at times put their own capital at risk in order to provide liquidity to the very large clients who wish to move large blocks of stock. When they must put their own money at risk, they reach out to other MMs for what amounts to "Insurance" against large losses. They all pretty much have the research on stocks far above and beyond what the Retail investor has, but since they are all about equally informed, the prices that they charge each other to hedge their risk can reveal to Peter's methodology what they think stocks are worth in the short term. The hedge prices are published daily at a public Clearing House. I forgot the full name but Peter can tell you.
    In any event, a trip to Blockdesk.com 's FAQ should answer your questions far better than I. I have published a couple of Blogs that also discuss the Tools there in detail. They are at http://seekingalpha.co... , http://seekingalpha.co... and http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Long ETFs: Best Positioned 10 Of 30+ Now, As Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    While the stocks are ranked according to the weighting by odds as appears in column 15, the top stock is not always the best buy.
    Column 15 weights the Risk-Reward by the Odds and days held; but one also has to look at the Days Held compared to the STP in column 5 to get the AROR.

    In the above chart, FAS has an AROR of 110% with 85% Odds, while CURE has an AROR of 148% with odds of 97%. What happened there is the effect of a very high number of prior similar experiences in column 12 for FAS (which skews the Weighting upwards), while CURE is equally skewed by a history of hitting it's PT in only 12 days (Column 10). Both of these last 2 statistics can mislead. By this I mean that FAS fails to meet the usual 7/8 (87%) Odds that Peter often talks of, while CURE's 97% historical hit rate in 12 days only has a total # of days on the Market of 408-Well below the 3 years or 756 Prior days at Market that is also often mentioned by Peter. Does this support a prediction of only 12 days held in the future? I am a bit skeptical.
    What I want to see is a fair number of prior similar experiences, a reasonable average Days Held, a R/R ~1.5 or better, and a Credibility Ratio of .9 at the very least. While 87% is a common cutoff point, I have shown in my Blog at http://seekingalpha.co... that there is a definite advantage to a stock remaining in the 85% or more range for multiple consecutive days. Consistant performance is highly desireable.
    It is far too soon to make any good judgement of the subsequent performance of either of those 2 stocks, I merely wanted to point out possible pitfalls to avoid.
    As of Friday's statistics, UDOW, TECL, and ROM have become more favorable, while almost all the rest need further study IMO.
    Apr 19, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News Near-Term: Market-Maker Dow-Jones Index Price Forecast. Protection? [View article]
    Remember that the data such as BTFs that you get from Blockdesk.com are projections going out ~3 months. Thus if the BTF of an index is predicted to climb, that may well be an indication that the entire Index is expected to rise, and Visa Versa.

    There is now a very good article on Leveraged ETFs at http://seekingalpha.co...
    It is current to this Market moving close to a year past the publication of this article. If you have access to Blockdesk, you can look at this weekend's ETFs.

    I have found that the MMs lack a good record of predicting the rise of "Inverse ETFs" except that if they dislike the Long ETFs, that very often is good news for the inverses. Unfortunately, that does not give you a Sell Target. I have had some good luck getting out of Inverses when the "Longs"drop near their Worst Case Drawdowns.

    As always, It is very risky to hold Levered short ETFs even overnight, much less for a 3 month Blockdesk period.
    Apr 19, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 112......  [View instapost]
    Al, my Tea Leaves are not happy with Tech right now, but Bio is heavily favored. Whatever your opinion of Healthcare Laws, there is great interest in the new meds in the pipeline.
    Apr 12, 2015. 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    That pretty much sums up the $50 product with 1 difference. In the Volatility Map, you can enter 50 stocks (as with the Tools with the 20 stock limit, you can plug in more than 50 stocks, but only the 50 with current data will display). Again, enter the stocks with your highest priority first. Even so, if your stock lacks current data, it will not display)

    What is "Current Data"? In order to make a forecast, it is necessary that there be a certain amount of "Hedging Product" traded on the day of the analysis. I do not know how many Options or other Hedging Vehicles need to be traded, but there is a cutoff point below which no meaningful prediction can be derived.

    The "Product by Quantity" product is only $25 but you get no Intelligence List, and fewer BTFs and other tools as I described in my previous post. Essentially what you get with the intelligence list is a list of stocks, as well as data related to those stocks that Peter has derived. The Data is derived using his proprietary method of estimating what the Market Makers feel a given stock should do over the next approximately 3 months based upon what it has done in the past when similar situations existed. He analyses what the Market Makers are willing to pay for various "Hedging" products as reported by the Options Clearing House. (I hope that is the correct name of the Clearing House, I'm kinda medicated atm).
    As for what data you get, I explain each column in the BTF in a Blog at http://seekingalpha.co....

    If you scroll up to the section labeled "The BTF Tool" you will see the row of numbers between the 2 graphic displays, and that row is divided into columns.
    What I explain in detail in that Blog is the meaning of each value in each column of the BTF. For instance, the first column is the expected Target Price. The second column is the lowest price that the stock is expected to experience before it climbs to it's Target Price, and column 3 is the current price at the close of the day's trading session on the day the data was generated.
    The graphic tool above the row of numbers is a historical record of the stock's price (displayed as a white block along the vertical bar) as well as the ranges of column 1 and column 2 (displayed as the vertical bar) of either the last 6 months (daily), or the last 2 years (weekly)-The choice of which is up to you. You can get either a 6 month or 2 year BTF. The weekly chart is updated every Thursday if the Market is open on that Thursday.
    (I need to ask Info@blockdesk.com if they update on Wednesdays or Fridays when Thursday is a Market Holiday.)
    The bottom graphic is the history of Range Indexes of the stock, going back to up to the past 5 years. In that box you see the current Range Index, and where it is in relation to that particular stock's most common RI.
    I know I have not covered every product available in this reply, but I have covered at least most of the available Tools in the text above. Perhaps JLG can add to this if he drops in.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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