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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    @Deer
    Looks like it is because 2 people are not showing up in the Challenge who were there Thursday.
    Dr. Doom and Sunshine Lolipop are gone this weekend. I do not know if it's a glitch, or if they actually left.
    May 3, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    I found that Norton has several issues with the settings that the firewall defaults to, mainly that it once it thinks a site is bad, it is very difficult to "un-teach" Norton that the site is not really bad. It can misread a site's validity simply from dropped Packets if the secure site does not send valid data befrore a timeout. I finally switched to McAfee about 3 years ago and have not had that problem again.
    May 3, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Crade, as I alluded to above, if the police have evidence that a crime has been committed, then they have "Probable Cause" to enter a home, business, whatever, and from that point they can move to protect someone, or make arrests. An example of a "Gray Area" is shown by an incident that happened while I was away from home on a contract I was doing. The police appeared at the door and when my wife answered the door, they informed her that a 911 call had been made from our home. This was long before my wife had had her stroke and she knew that no such call had been made. Still, the police insisted on searching our house "for her protection". She never told me about this until many years later as she knew what my reaction would be. At the very least I would have sued the city. Unfortunately, the Statute of Limitations had expired.
    May 3, 2015. 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I think that the point that the ACLU is making is that the police must have "Probable Cause" before entering a home and that they should not get their PC AFTER entering the home.
    "Probable Cause" has a rather broad definition, and IMO should be held to a much higher standard than it currently is. The Baltimore police claimed that Mr Gray gave them PC by running away, but admit that the knife that they arrested him for was legal and that they had no cause to detain him. The problem is that by the time a lawyer would have gotten the charges dropped, he had already assumed room temperature. If the standards for PC were higher-that the police had to know that a crime had probably been committed-Mr Gray would never have had his terminal encounter with them. I do not know what court or when; ruled that running away when someone saw a policeman was grounds for pursuit; but IMO that ruling should be seriously reviewed. IMO that issue is far more important to address than when police should document what they see. I believe that if police really do have PC, then they need to document their actions (good and bad) AFTER that point. Without PC, police should not be entering homes.
    May 3, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    You said "I still question the statement that a 2008-like market meltdown is a one-in-eighty year event. I am also skeptical at trying to select a combination of stocks that will have a cumulative net gain during a sharp market correction."
    A correction takes the Market down 10 to as high as 25%.
    2008 was a genuine crash taking the market down >50%. We had not seen a crash that serious since 1929.
    Finding stocks that can make you money in such an environment is difficult, but not impossible. You would have to shorten your holding period probably even more than my current 63 Market Days, but still there is some volatility that can be used to capture small gains, while perhaps buying Short ETFs for short term holding periods as well. I do not recommend levered short ETFs generally, but I do believe that there is a place for them. The fact is that I am not really big on any levered ETFs, despite having made some really good money on some last summer, and the fall before then. I think it was TQQQ that performed the best for me, but I would have to dig kinda deep to find out just when it came up on Peter's radar.
    May 3, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    IT I was up YTD until the last few week's KO's.

    Between SNDK costing me like 6k and losing 4k on the week, I need a Joint!!
    May 2, 2015. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    My Chiefs picked up some WR's from Free Agency, but still drafted at least 1 in the first 3 rounds.
    Last season they did not score a single passing touchdown to a WR. Not 1 all season and the string goes back several games into the prior season.
    Of course, with a RB with great hands and moves, they still did rather well given the lack of a decent QB.
    May 2, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    The Draft this year is a real ZOO!
    Some guys seem like they are trying to dodge it like it is the Army doing the Drafting.

    It was Denver's 1st round pick that will start his NFL career on probation for drugs.

    There was a guy from Utah drafted in (I think) round 3 who admitted to a positive drug test in College but wanted to impress the Pro teams with how dedicated he was. He set up some 15 appointments, was late to several and blew off the Raiders meeting entirely. Then was STILL drafted within the first 3 rounds!!!
    Then there was the guy projected to go about 16th or so. He announced before the draft that he would not sign with anyone if he was not drafted in the first 3 rounds.
    It's really not good to be applying for a job and start the interview with an Ultimatum to prospective employers!
    Of course, he was not drafted by anyone as of the end of round 3 last night. He is an OT and it appears that he will be playing another year in college if still eligible. I am thinking that once you announce for the Draft that the NCAA scoots you out the door. In any event, maybe he'll be better off going ahead and getting a degree. Hopefully he will take some classes in not being stupid.
    May 2, 2015. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    Free BTF of the Day at Blockdesk.com

    DATE SYMBOL High Low Now STP% WCD RI ODDS % P/O DH AROR Sample Size

    05/01/15 GLD $125.74 $110.19 $113.47 10.8% -6.4% 16 46/100 -1.6% 60 -7.00% 184 of 1261
    To those not familiar with these forecasts, I'll explain tomorrow when awake and less Medicated.
    STP%=Sell Target Price %Gain
    WCD=Worst Case Drawdown
    RI=Range Index (The % of the estimated range where today's price is.
    % P/O=Historical gain when at similar Range Index.
    DH=Days held to get price (Max=63)
    AROR=Annual Rate Of Return.
    Sample Size=Times in the max 5 year history of the stock when it had a similar RI. (Expressed as Market Days)
    I wish I could post the graphs attendant to this, but you can view them at http://bit.ly/1QWGQWl
    May 2, 2015. 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    BTW, my tea leaves say that we probably have wrung about as much as we can from FTNT@~$38.50.
    May 2, 2015. 12:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    I should have stuck to my own advice and stayed 50% invested. I bought some new stocks on Monday and then we hit this down week. While it should reverse itself, it almost always takes a few days before a new purchase begins to add much to profitability. Add to that miserable week and suddenly I'm down ~4k from last week 17.8k-13.9k :(
    If I don't unload some profitable stocks early in the month, I could run up another ~$500 in margin interest fees.
    May 2, 2015. 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    Did we really lose 2 players yesterday? Looks like Dr Doom and Sunshine are AWOL on my page.
    Quite a bit of shuffel in just a day:
    1 JohnBinTN 309.94 117,472.60 100,000.00 117,782.54 17.78%
    2 cbowman 157.72 115,643.40 100,000.00 115,801.12 15.80%
    3 OldWarrior -93,824.00 207,798.50 100,000.00 113,974.50 13.97%
    4 User7 -49,965.22 163,538.74 100,000.00 113,573.52 13.57%
    5 EconAnalyst -5,171.41 116,739.82 100,000.00 111,568.41 11.57%
    6 NewbieTrader 390.50 110,898.00 100,000.00 111,288.50 11.29%
    7 carltonritz1 -104,329.33 213,248.00 100,000.00 108,918.67 8.92%
    8 crademan 581.01 103,111.25 100,000.00 103,692.26 3.69%
    9 Cwinn 26,977.38 61,816.00 100,000.00 88,793.38 -11.21%
    10 Carl2014 -70,270.70 148,287.45 100,000.00 78,016.75 -21.98%
    11 JohnWilson 5,982.87 63,110.00 100,000.00 69,092.87 -30.91%
    12 nocnurzfred -52,435.95 119,209.60 100,000.00 66,773.65 -33.23%
    13 Interesting -81,019.90 146,899.00 100,000.00 65,879.10 -34.12%
    14 kanwar99 -5,689.78 126,872.90 100,000.00 65,737.12 -34.26%
    15 deercreekvols -10,991.57 74,182.12 100,000.00 63,190.55 -36.81%
    16 lockbrain 897.41 30,515.00 100,000.00 31,412.41 -68.59%
    17 MadcapLaughs -20,962.07 48,585.50 100,000.00 27,623.43 -72.38%
    May 1, 2015. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118 [View instapost]
    " His plan was to buy up to 500,000 shares, when he buys something he wants it to go DOWN in order to buy more and build the position without affecting the price upwards. His words were, "20,000 shares is a ham sandwich odd lot position, I'm not in this for nickels and dimes". "
    This is exactly why Market Makers exist. They are the people you turn to to execute large Block trades without undue effect on the SP. They can bring a rising price down by hedges, which others notice and say"There is a growing Short on XYZ and I better get out!"
    May 1, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I'll do some research and get back to you. My understanding about Limit orders, and my experience thereof, is that if you set a limit of =>$10, it will not sell below 10 but may sell at 10.50 or more. That is, in fact the definition of a >="Limit Order".
    May 1, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Thank you Indianmark. I knew that photography had fallen away. Production 40% more than China bought is probably why silver is so low. IMO People expect China to be buying MORE silver than is produced.
    In any event, I know more now than I did.
    What do you view as a "realistic price"?
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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