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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 112......  [View instapost]
    Al, tell that to the poor pros that got the early Thursday Tee Times at San Antonio this week. The wind was so bad that the "Cut Line" was +6 when I last looked this afternoon. Not 1 golfer from the Thursday AM wave finished below Par, and only a few at even. Imagine buying your "Bucket of balls" and when you hit your first one into the wind, it came back and hit YOU! LOL
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 112......  [View instapost]
    EA
    With the exception of the FB fiasco, that is virtually always the way IPO's go. There should be some lottery system for who gets to buy the shares at the IPO Price, rather than the entire stock being sold to the favored Fund managers and clients, and "Most Favored" funds like CalPers. I do not believe I have ever met someone who will admit to having purchased IPO shares from the issuer (except FB of course).
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Your Capital To Work This Year - Or Are You Just Sending It To The Spa? [View article]
    FTNT has indeed been good. Bought it at 31.22 on 1/21. Sold at 35.43 3/19.
    FTNT was again "On Sale " yesterday. I got in at 32.8. It's already over 34 again. JAZZ has been equally nice. It's easy to move in and out at good entry and exit points if you know the MMs thoughts.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 112......  [View instapost]
    I feel your pain Crade, I was holding 300 SNDK in the challenge until today. Bailed out down ~$6K. It will probably come back some, but there are so many better stocks out there that are NOT hanging by fingernails. I bought back into JAZZ after it fell from >180 to ~173. Took a small bite of Apple too, but it's not showing huge promise like it did below 110.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    BigTime OUCH
    I had 300 SNDK and took a ~6k hit on them today. I would have only lost half that if this Challenge allowed "After Hours" sessions. I was up at 4AM with insomnia when I saw it falling. I got out at open above 68, but it continued down to like 66. Now if anyone has the nerves, I believe it to be oversold, and I am believing you could make some money on a "Dead Cat Bounce" if you have time to monitor the price all day tomorrow. I don't have the time, so I'll just console myself with pain pills LOL.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    Sorry about the long delay in responding. I got really busy around here.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    To answer that I will tell you that there are 2 types of subscriptions. Both include a number of BTFs which you can use to look at any stock covered by Blockdesk.com. These are stocks that are almost exclusively over $10 and have been listed long enough to have enough data usually available to make forecasts on. On any given day, a stock may be in a situation in which there are too few prior experiences in a similar position to make a reliable forecast on.
    There is a $25 subscription which is research only and called Product by quantity. I quote here:

    "Product by Quantity is meant to provide for several needs:
    1) Those who already have an Intelligence List in hand, but wish to make more extensive use of our tools.
    2) Those making their own selections and find Market-Maker opinions to be a useful additional source of relevant information.
    3) Those who already have a portfolio and want these tools for re-balancing or group rotations.
    This product includes 20 BTFs, 20 Volatility Maps, 10 Reward:Risk Maps, and 10 Odds vs. Payoff Maps, with a 12-month expiration limit. All values are reset to these parameters upon a renewal, and do not accrue."
    (by that they mean that if you renew with some product left in a category, it is lost)

    The Product by Quantity details are given on the website:
    http://bit.ly/19mm9B6

    The Intelligence List purchase costs $50 and gets you
    this:
    "30 BTF forecasts per month
    20 Volatility Maps per month
    20 Reward:Risk Maps per month
    20 Odds/Payoff Maps per month"
    That full description is at:
    http://bit.ly/19mnnfH

    You should enter 20+ stocks into either the Odds-Payoff or the Risk Reward Tool, and if you wish, 50+ stocks into the Volatility Tool. You will get a maximum of 20 results in the first 2 and 50 in the last but they recommend entering more because (again I Quote):"There is no specific feedback about exceeding the limit, because we encourage the user to always submit more than the limit in case one or more of their list is non-current. That way, they ensure getting a full 20 at a whack for O-P and R:R. Users can (and should!) submit more than 20 tickers, and it will just cheerfully spit out the first 20 that are available with current data and without any negative feedback. Prioritize the list with the most important ones first, and least important last."
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Darn, I shoulda raised my PT on PRXL. It fired at 69.06 but has since hit $70 before retreating. Ahh well, Profit is still profit.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Does anyone else hate the new interface at the Challenge? I can no longer even see the "Most Recent Trade".
    I kind of liked to see that as just refreshing my screen would show if a trade had gone through.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    IT
    Out of the 4 you listed above, my Tea Leaves show (ALK) as voted "Least Likely to Succeed".
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    To get the Risk-Reward Ratio, divide the projected % Gain by the worst case Drawdown % column.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    IT you are not far off in that what you get from blockdesk.com is a list of (usually) 20 of the best looking stocks as viewed by the Market Makers. bd.com takes >2500 stocks daily and sorts out what their data views as the "Keepers". What I do is sort through that list and, like you, pick between the stocks I want and the stocks that seem less favorable. By that I mean that first I run through that list on the day after I get it and see which stocks stayed in the >85-87% odds range for a second day. I then look at what I own and see what fits into my portfolio to stay diversified, as well as avoiding certain stocks that have a lower Cred ratio on the second day. Then it's often a matter of just picking the ones with the best projected returns, the best Risk-Reward ratio, and the better Annualized Rate of Return (AROR).
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    The research that you get from Blockdesk.com is centered around what the Market Makers think of a stock. You do not get research like Earnings, PE Etc. What you get is the derived data such as you see above. The Tools I show here are essentially reflections of the Market Makers research of a stock, and is derived from what Hedging products cost the MMs. What they do, is if they have to put their own money "at Risk" is buy insurance from other Market Maker desks against excessive losses. These Market Makers move many millions of shares of stock daily. In order to provide liquidity in the Market, they must at times own many millions of $ worth of stock that they must clear. The other MMs that sell them the hedging vehicles do their own DD. From price movements of these hedging activities as reported in the Clearing House that they must report to, Peter defines what the majority opinions of a stock's near term future movements will be. That is the data you get in the BTFs (Block Trader Forecasts).
    If you want to do your own DD, you would have to get that data from such brokers as you mentioned, as well as the SEC filings etc.
    You should read the FAQ at blockdesk.com. Perhaps they are clearer.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    You're welcome IT and Al as well. You could probably still hang onto your FTNT at least to $37

    My FTNT hit its PT in my RL portfolio today though, so I sold it for a ~13% gain since 1/21. In my RLP as in the Challenge, I hold no stock longer than 3 months, and set a Price Target as per the information I get. I have been buying both FTNT and JAZZ on dips since June and have done quite well. I, for some reason, cannot log into the Challenge today, so I do not know if I had my sell target there set the same. I think I did. It's not a bad buy even after it's recent climb. I'll buy it back on any dip I can catch under $34, both in Challenge and likely my RLP.
    I managed to get in on SAVE at 76.31 in my RLP. I should have bought it in the Challenge at that time as well. Still, I got it at a pretty good price I think and should get ~10% gain from it.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    Thank you Crade. Happy St Pat's day to you as well. Yes it has been as profitable %-wise in my RLP as in much of my Demo account in the Challenge. It's almost unfair knowing what the "Big Kids" are thinking. For example, I pulled up a list of 9 stocks today that predict gains from 6+% to 12+% over from 31 days to 39 days.with annualized rates of return of from 51% to 142%. Your PRXL almost made the list with an 80% chance of $74 in the next 44 days. I'll take those odds. I bought a position at 63.63 on 2/17, for about a 6.8% gain in 1 month. not ready to sell until $69.06 <g>. It closed at $67.97 so I'm guessing like 2 weeks to go.
    I put in an order for 400 (SAVE) for tomorrow at limit 79.60 in the Challenge. Projecting a gain Annualized at ~110%. It's not a Dividend payer, but at that AROR, who cares?
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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