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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 6.. [View instapost]
    I added to my TZA today in my RLP. Must watch it closely tomorrow to see if I dare hold it over the weekend.

    Did you notice that tonight is the deadline for a Debt Increase bill to pass? If it doesn't, we may see another Gov Shutdown.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @User 28775055:
    Actually that very question, when posed by you in one of my Blogs, caused me to really think through a proper answer.

    In the end, I had to write an entire Instablog to fully explain why I chose to buy a stock. (It's at: http://bit.ly/1DjgWYo ).

    The short answer is : I personally require a stock to have Odds ≥87% (7/8), a Cred Ratio of ≥ .9 initially, and to have stayed at ≥ 85% Odds and a .9 Cred Ratio for more than 1 day. (3-5 days is better). I also want to see a stable Weighted R-R Ratio. A decrease in Weighted R-R Ratio of > 10% is, to me, a warning, and >15% means no. All else being equal, I look at the Days Held column as time is also a cost of investment, and one of great significance. If I have been following a stock for multiple days, and decide to buy, I will use the most current BTF Price Target as my sell target.
    However: I hope you have the time to look at that newest Blog for a detailed description of my reasoning process.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    Thank you for reading anyway. I think that just the idea of spending the weekly time to be a really active investor can be intimidating, and people often underestimate their own intelligence.
    Your knowledge of plants and gardening shows you have a great capacity, so I do not believe that you can not grasp this eventually. I think that someday a switch will click on and you will have that "Ah Ha" moment.
    Dec 11, 2014. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    Geesh Al
    I could smell that pile clear out here in the Desert!
    <holds nose and fires up Candles>
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 92.... [View instapost]
    IT you might want to look at the DOW again. It being above 17k must pass through 17k to get to 16k.
    If you mean 18 or 17, I'll take 18K for 1000 Alex <Jeopardy Tune>.
    I sure hope it is a buying opportunity because I went from <30% invested to ~80% this week. These are all min 1 month and max 3 month positions except a dabble in TZA. TZA was good to me today, but overseas markets are climbing last I looked so TZA should open lower.
    Will it stay down? I'm not sure if I have the caj***s to stay with it all day tomorrow.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @tTF
    The Time Constraints referred to by Peter are simply inserting Time into the formula for investing returns as expressed in an article a while back: "Time Investment Means More To Your Portfolio's Performance Than Capital Investment" :http://bit.ly/1aJ1mC6 from back in Feb of 2013.
    I quote here:
    First, the role of time in measuring investment returns

    The scorecard of investing is kept in terms of rate of return. The largest part of the returns can come from price changes, rather than dividends, when the investor recognizes that time is the factor in the return equation that has the most muscle. That is because it is, in algebraic terms, a power element, while all the others are linear functions.

    R= (1+(P2-P1+D) /P1) ^(1/T)-1, where Ps are prices, D is dividend, and T is time."
    (I had to insert a space in several steps of the equation or SA truncates it. The Spaces I put in are after the =, before the / and before the ^.)
    This is just informational and not meant to be argumentative.

    The way Time is used by Peter's system is to have not only a Price Target, but also a Time Target as an exit point. (63 Market Days)
    This is in part due to tracking the performance of a stock after certain conditions are met means that the further from those conditions, the less precise the predictions (as a rule).
    The other part of the reason for the Time Exit Point is to re-deploy Capital that is under-performing (has not reached it's Price within a fixed time) and move it to more attractive positions.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    B&H
    You say "If the stock market drops 50% again, I will not sell. I will simply add to my positions in dividend growth stocks at discount prices."

    With what will you buy all these bargains? You certainly won't be buying it with reinvested Dividends, and also unlikely to be able to buy on Margin with half your wealth gone. Do you sit on millions in cash just so you can be ready for the next crash or is that money invested as well?
    Perhaps your income is so great that you have a 50% Risk Tolerance; but that would pretty much make you onto Forbes 500 (in which case you hire people to manage your millions).

    Are you actually claiming that you did not sell off stocks in 2008-2009 to cut losses? If so, you are not a true B&H. Once you start the cycles of selling in big crashes, then you have to decide how big the correction has to be before you sell. Eventually you need to be finding buy opportunities and and Sell Targets.
    Years later you are back to breakeven after a 2008-like crash and are saying to yourself "Why didn't I see that Train coming?"
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    Peter may have the real numbers; but if memory serves me correctly, until blockdesk.com went live in ~July, Peter was publishing a list of stocks and a list of ETFs each month.

    In my blogs I have proposed a couple of different methods of picking out only a portion of each list, and 2 methods of helping to chose which may turn out the best. Neither of my methods are extensively tested and proven to exceed Peter's ranking system, but I am trying. I do not have the capital to buy every rec when they come out at 20/month; but at his site I can buy lists whenever I am ready to commit capital, and use his tools to try to pick out the best at that time.

    A new list is available every Market Day about 1 hour after Close.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    The reality is that now that the technology has been developed, it's not a matter of the Saudis driving Fracking out of business; but rather the large companies like XOM driving the small producers out.

    Once the small drillers are toast, the Big Kids can go back to business as usual. Anyone besides me remember the "Gas Wars" of the 60's, when small companies like Champlain and APCO got eaten by Shell, Exxon, Chevron and a couple other mega companies?

    That was the death of the Full Service stations where they pumped your gas and wiped your windshield. The independent service stations would make 11-12 cents/gallon with gas at 32C. The big guys would be selling gas for 19-20cents/gallon and the small oil companies could, at best pay their stations 4c/gal. My Father-in-Law watched as Champlain collapsed under and he had to lease from Texaco. (At 4c/gal.) Fortunatly, by that time he was the most coveted of blue collar workers-an Honest Auto Mechanic.
    The gas pumps only covered the utilities. His shop made a bundle.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 91.... [View instapost]
    LOL I did well today in TZA though in my RLP. Well enough that I didn't sell at close as I have a fair cushion if it doesn't tank too big overnight.
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @Varan;
    Can you be more specific in your question?
    Dec 10, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    If one has the Billions to play with like Mr. Buffet, their problems are more like how to invest without moving the price too much. That is where the Market Makers come in. Peter uses the inevitable money trail that moving that much money leaves. The Market Makers, in the course of spreading large blocks of trades around to reduce their influence on the price, must put some of their own capital to work. Since they hate risk, they hedge their investments. By tracking the cost of those hedge vehicles, Peter is able to discern what the MMs think about a stock. By tracking such events over a number of years, he has built up a history of what has happened to stocks after these certain specific conditions exist. The result is what we can use to help pick the better stocks out of the few thousand possibilities. Almost every Equity has it's cheerleaders and it's detractors. By taking the emotion out of trading, one can find both entry and exit points.
    In my years of investing, I have been able to find entry points relatively easily compared to picking the best exit point. To hold stocks through thick and thin, one loses the ability to include TIME in your investment equation.

    Time is a cost just like Fees and Commissions. Once spent, it can never be recaptured.
    Dec 10, 2014. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    In order to follow stocks with current data, the investor must purchase that data from blockdesk.com.
    http://www.blockdesk.com

    Using the data presented in the Screenshot, anyone can look up stocks in that list and see where they were at 3 months, and if they hit the PT in Column B prior to ~11-7.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing BTFs As Presented By Peter F. Way On BlockDesk.com [View instapost]
    Sorry, I hate when Authors use abbreviations and don't explain them.
    BTF stands for Block Trader Forecast.
    Block Traders are the large volume Market Makers who must move large blocks of stocks for the major players such as Pension Funds. If done wrong, these large trades could move the markets heavily against the traders.
    The screenshot was put up as representative of a number of stocks data on that date. As such, I did not actually "Chose" one; but rather they are ranked according to desirability using only Column R (and a few at the bottom are out of order, but are lower ranked anyway)
    The reader is encouraged to use the information in the article to rank them themselves using the Criteria that I wrote of.
    This is indeed a historical Illustration. I cannot post current Data for free that is being sold at Blockdesk.com. I will however, as I said in the conclusion, add my own rankings, as well as the results after the Time Target of 63 Market Days had expired. I stopped short of doing that as I wanted to get the text of the post up.
    Peter has posted many articles showing his historical results of his recommendations in general.
    More than anything else, this was posted to answer a question in http://seekingalpha.co...
    about what constitutes a "Buy Range".
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    @ AnAvgJoe
    Peter F Way has the site Blockdesk.com, which offers investment tools as well as lists of stocks. The lists are derived by Peter's proprietary method of detecting what the Market Makers think of stocks as revealed by their hedging activities.
    There is an FAQ at that site that explains more. Additionally I have published 2 Blogs concerning the tools and their uses, as well as another Blog comparing certain uses of his Intelligence Lists.
    My Blogs (in the order published are at:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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