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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    In actuality, most of these "Additional Costs" to the middle class are already being paid by the government in the form of deficit spending payments for medical care via medicaid (not to be confused with Medicare). In other words, a considerable portion of government spending on medical care for the uninsured or underinsured is simply being brought into daylight by switching the care costs from the government to the population. These huge costs have been being paid all along, but by the government. It's only when these costs got shifted to the population at large that the true cost of our bloated medical care system is being revealed, and felt by everyone. Medicine is a huge consumer of dollars; but the people have been shielded from seeing the massive spending on medical care in the past by it being paid from government coffers. The gov coffers are empty, thus the populace has to take on these costs. Now seeing just how much Medicine is eating from the GDP, perhaps some changes to how we spend our medical care dollars can be addressed. Defensive Medicine is the single largest waste of care spending. Doctors must order extra tests to tell them what a good clinical exam has (or should have) already told them. A typical example is my wife's stroke. A clinical exam easily defined the CVA (Cerebral Vascular Accident) was located in the left MCA (Middle Cerebral Artery) diagnosed by the speech impairment, the loss of Rt side limb function, and the other symptoms that medicine knows are located in very specific areas of the Brain. A CT was indicated only to define whether it was a bleed or infarct (blockage). Treatment for each is opposite. There was no valid reason to do an MRI as the stroke had reached full maturity by the time they did that, yet this very expensive test was ordered to confirm what everyone already knew. I only allowed it to be done because I thought that they were going to include a look at the arteries leading to the brain (which were unsatisfactorily assessed via Ultrasound (I had to teach the incompetent tech how to see her vertebral arteries).

    The bottom line is that this money is currently being spent. People only feel it when their share has to come directly from them and not via Medicaid.

    Insurance companies should be regulated like Utilities to prevent overcharging. Medical care should also be limited in liability when something that a reasonable person should be able to draw a logical conclusion, and need not be confirmed by excessive tests, only those necessary. Payments should be limited to actual costs rather than charging whatever the market will bear. For example, my wife was charged >$300 for the interpretation of her MRI, perhaps 10 minutes work by a radiologist ($1800/hour at that rate). Being insured under my Veterans Insurance, they authorized ~$75 and by law could not bill me for the difference. Ordinary Insurance companies have to pay that $1800/hour rate as they have no legal protection from such excessive fees.
    Don't blame ObamaCare for revealing the truth about medical fees. Legislate such fees to reasonable levels as the VA does (when paying for non-VA care), and indeed Medicare does in Inpatient cases. Medicare pays a flat rate per admission depending upon the diagnosis, regardless of tests and procedures done. If Outpatient work was equally controlled, the costs you are now revealed would be reduced unimaginably.
    Aug 15 11:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    Here's mine
    TKR QTY BOUGHT LAST $ GAIN/LOSS

    (NASDAQ:JAZZ) 200 139.20 148.10 29,620.00 6.39%
    (NYSE:SEMG) 100 77.94 82.59 8,259.00 5.97%
    (NASDAQ:ARII) 200 74.07 76.54 15,308.00 3.33%
    (NASDAQ:NFLX) 30 450.98 459.09 13,772.70 1.80%
    (NASDAQ:IPXL) 600 23.56 23.89 14,334.00 1.40%
    (NASDAQ:MDSO) 200 45.09 45.71 9,142.00 1.38%
    (NYSEARCA:IWP) 115 87.27 88.45 10,171.75 1.35%
    (NYSE:CHD) 100 66.60 67.29 6,729.00 1.04%
    (NYSE:COF) 150 78.85 79.30 11,895.00 0.57%
    (NYSE:RGA) 125 80.73 81.14 10,142.50 0.51%
    (NASDAQ:DXPE) 132 76.72 76.88 10,148.16 0.21%
    (NASDAQ:BWEN) 1,100 8.86 8.77 9,647.00 -1.02%

    BWEN is a position I sold out of my RL account, but It's my "Wild Card" in here.
    Aug 15 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    Not to be misunderstood; the triple short ETFs are dangerous to hold overnight, but the triple longs not so. The reason is that predicting shorts is a much less exact science than predicting Long. You, in your DD, must look at the holdings of any ETF; and especially so the Levered ones, as even so-called "Index" ETFs like (NASDAQ:TQQQ) are weighted towards certain stocks within the Index. TQQQ holds not only levered positions in the NASDQ; but also stocks like (NASDAQ:AAPL), despite the fact that the NASDQ is already heavily AAPL weighted. Still, by looking at the Market Maker's indicators of what these Levered stocks are implied to do, significant profit can be made over several months. They are not "Buy-and-Hold" stocks, but the timeline to hold one should certainly not exceed 3 months without extra data and continuing DD.
    Again, whenever buying an ETF, look at their top 10-20 holdings and evaluate each one of those (at least any over ~4% of their holdings). You are buying a bundle of companies which serve to diversify you within limits; but would you buy shares in most of their Top Ten if you had 10x the money to spend on such? As for (NYSEARCA:TNA), the direction of the Russel 2k has not been good consistently over the last Q, so it is probably nearly as dangerous to hold for even a week, as the Shorts are for overnight.
    Aug 15 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    My (NYSE:TRGP) sold at it's Target Price for a ~3% gain in 6 Market days. I had it on a tight leash because blockdesk.com gave it a lower credibility ratio than I like. ( below .9)
    Aug 15 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    OAG
    I am of the opposite opinion as I show by being ~150% invested. Well chosen stocks can beat 3% annualized as long as you don't stay too long. That is why I have sell targets or time limits in my discipline. None will be held > 63 Market day (3 months).
    Aug 15 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 76.... [View instapost]
    POTUS announced today NO "Boots on the Ground" in Iraq.
    Limited air support, mostly in the Northeast (Kurdish) region.

    We may have "Boots on the Ground" in St Louis though!

    My cost of dang Roof Leak reaching 10k and counting though. :(
    Aug 14 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 76.... [View instapost]
    It's $100k, but you can Margin up to 100k more at 8% interest on borrowings. Thus you have 200K buying power, but pay interest on any spent over 100K.
    Dividends count I believe, as does interest on unspent Principle (your first 100K)
    Aug 14 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views [View instapost]
    When I wrote in my other Blog, I was assuming 20 in a List. Editing timed out in my above writing, but I think It's not too confusing. I personally put enough value on their lists that I might buy as many as 8/10, but they would all have to have stayed favorable for more than 1 day. I would use accordingly less BTFs, but screen them with the other Tools first. The Odds/Payoff tool will tell you if a stock is still >~85% probability, and even better if they are past the 90% line.
    Aug 14 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views [View instapost]
    I could and probably will write a separate Blog on those questions. I thought when I wrote that, that the list would be 20 stocks so I wrote accordingly in my other Blog. I still believe in not buying more than 8 out of any 1 list, and out of 10, probably 6. I will have to do some research.
    I posted the way I use an Int List in my other Blog at http://bit.ly/1ltlbI7

    From which I Quote:(<with changes annotated within arrows>
    "Using Intelligence Lists

    Assuming a purchased Intelligence list contains 20 stocks <>;

    I take the top 10 from the R-R, Volatility and Win Odds Tools after the next day is finished. I want to make sure a stock stays favored for 2-4 Market Days. I then look at the SP <Share Price>history charts from elsewhere. Taking from that, the best 6-8, then do DD at brokerages sites as well as other sources such as recent SEC filings. While no one factor is a definite BUY, I can often find preponderences pointing either way. That said, I sometimes find a single "Don't Buy" signal such as SEC problems that are decided against a company, or things in their SEC filings that are hidden at the bottom. (I once found a fair looking stock; but in a disclaimer, they stated that they did not have the assets to meet their Notes Due in the next 30 days.)
    I settle on 4 after 2 Market Days, and will add 4 more after 3-5 Market Days.<the second 4 are derived from the best that show up on the Volatility, R-R, and Odds-Payoff Tools that are not already bought> The entire list will be treated as 1 "ETF" with a Purchase Date as rated at the date of the Intelligence List Data and Target Prices established and Sell Target Date established from the date of the original list."

    If you look at the last 3 Tools posted above, you can see stocks that show up favorably in at least 2 of the 3 Tools. These are the ones I would spend BTFs on. I'll use maybe 10-12 initially, and maybe 6 more in 4-5 days. After I have made my selections, I can track them in the Tools fairly well. I use the BTFs fairly liberally before buying,; but I use only the Tools for tracking for a while thereafter.
    This means that I only wind up with 8 stocks max purchased from a single list, with approximately equal sized investments.

    On DD;
    If I know a company well, I will do little more than look at charts and the most recent SEC Filings. However, if I do not know a company:
    The DD that I do is often probably more than necessary; but I look at a few things like recent SEC filings, Insider Trading, and a few metrics like trailing PE and Free Cash Flow, which I define as Revenues minus Depreciation and Amortization. Quite often there is a great difference between GAAP and non-GAAP reporting. Non-GAAP is a Liar's Game. I want to see the audited numbers. From the FCF I can derive the Dividends as a % of FCF if they pay dividends. If they pay greater than 60% of FCF out in Divs, that Div may have to be reduced, which will stop any stock in it's tracks.
    Often, there will be 1 time charge-offs, which I ignore unless they are really bad like JPM and their derivatives scandal.
    As I say in my Bio, Researching Stocks is a hobby, so I sometimes go much further than necessary. The great thing about these Int Lists is that much DD is already figured in.

    IMO, The most important DD is making sure a stock stays favored for more than just 1 day by the MMs. It should be favorable the day before you buy. If you want to buy on the day after you buy the Int List, fine, but I will never do that. I believe in a stock's staying power as a metric as well.
    Aug 14 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    Gold tonight was over 1313, but is falling. From what I have seen over the last 4 months, buy DUST if gold breaks 1310, and switch to NUGT when it falls to 1290.
    As of this time, Stock futures are flat to slightly up for tomorrow.
    Saving most of the rest of my purchasing power to Day Trade Triple Short ETFs as hedges if I see weakness.
    Aug 13 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    i'm not expecting to hold on to my rank for long in this wobbly Market, but I'll take my few good days. I'll be setting target prices for selling what I have, but not much new buying until I have time for some new research. Most of my stocks carry a projected 10-15% gain over 3 months with ~ 92% Odds of it, so some will certainly Tank. I just hope to make enough on the others to stay in the game.
    Aug 13 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    Those Triple Short ETFs can pay big for a day, but it's a huge risk to hold them overnight.
    Aug 13 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 2 [View instapost]
    I added 4 stocks from the lists I am working on.
    (NASDAQ:ARII) Projected 14.6% Gain within 3 months
    (NASDAQ:DXPE) Projected 13.1% Gain within 3 months
    (NASDAQ:JAZZ) Projected 14.8% Gain within 3 months
    (NASDAQ:NFLX) Projected 15% Gain within 3 months
    I think I have posted about all my stocks except (NASDAQ:BWEN), which came from my own holdings. Any stock not posted about on http://seekingalpha.co... came from my own Portfolio, based upon some prior article by Peter F. Way.
    The data came from http://www.blockdesk.com .
    Aug 12 12:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Money In This ETF Without Knowing What The Smart Money Knows [View article]
    Looks pretty good. I should do some DD on it as my (NYSE:SEMG) is getting close to it's PT. It might hit as early as tomorrow. Thank you.
    Aug 12 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Market-Making'? Are Those Who Do It Ripping Off The Public? [View article]
    Thank you for the quick reply and the clarification.

    I plan on quoting your Annualization formula in my Blog and I wanted to make sure I used the correct parameters.

    Hope all goes well with you as well.

    TLB
    Aug 10 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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