OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Safari Time Again - Elephant Heading Our Way - Get Ready For More Thrilling Shots  [View article]
    As a rule, the MMs do not often make accurate forecasts of Short ETFs, as they are interested in filling Long positions. Peter communicated to me quite a while back that they are a lot better at analyzing longer positions, as their customers probably are unlikely to gamble on "Day Trading" Short ETFs.
    If you look at figure 1 (the 6 month Tool), you may notice 1 thing at a glance. The higher on the forecast range the Price Bar appears, the more likely a price downturn. When the price climbs higher, it seems to get heavy and fall down. I see at least 5 such trends in the last 6 months. By the same token, lower placement is usually more favorable for investing.
    Personally, I would tend to assume that the (IWM) would have a similar profile, just lower expected price changes since they are not levered.
    Mar 30, 2014. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    The associated article referred to attempts to quantify the ROI, however his communication skills as per a "Retail Investor" SUCK.
    He can only write in "Bankersspeak".

    Enough data? or do you want me to try to interpret the article as well? I get clearer data from the 10Q
    Mar 30, 2014. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    From their 10Q 2/3/14
    "We have elected to be treated as a regulated investment company and intend to continue to comply with the requirements of the Internal Revenue Code applicable to regulated investment companies. We are required to distribute at least 90% of our investment company taxable income and intend to distribute (or retain through a deemed distribution) all of our investment company taxable income and net capital gain to stockholders; therefore, we have made no provision for income taxes. The character of income and gains that we will distribute is determined in accordance with income tax regulations that may differ from GAAP. Book and tax basis differences relating to stockholder dividends and distributions and other permanent book and tax differences are reclassified to paid-in capital.

    If we do not distribute (or are not deemed to have distributed) at least 98% of our annual ordinary income and 98.2% of our capital gains in the calendar year earned, we will generally be required to pay an excise tax equal to 4% of the amount by which 98% of our annual ordinary income and 98.2% of our capital gains exceed the distributions from such taxable income for the year. To the extent that we determine that our estimated current year annual taxable income will be in excess of estimated current year dividend distributions from such taxable income, we accrue excise taxes, if any, on estimated excess taxable income as taxable income is earned using an annual effective excise tax rate. The annual effective excise tax rate is determined by dividing the estimated annual excise tax by the estimated annual taxable income. For the calendar year ended December 31, 2012, we elected to retain a portion of our annual taxable income and have paid $4,500 for the excise tax due with the filing of the return. As of December 31, 2013, we have $4,000 accrued as an estimate of the excise tax due for continuing to retain a portion of our annual taxable income for the calendar year ending December 31, 2013."
    Instead of 90% like a REIT, they must distribute 98% of Profits. Otherwise they accrue Excise Tax.
    Mar 30, 2014. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    To make it simple, it is the equivalent of a REIT, except it invests in things besides Real Estate. It needs to distribute 90% of profits to maintain it's tax status. Thus the REIT like Dividends (12-13%). Maybe best termed a Limited Partnership. Consult your Tax Advisor. I quote:

    "[X] A parent holding company or control person in accordance with
    Rule 13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(G);"

    As a Limited Partnership. there may be tax advantages or liabilities of owners depending upon NAV changes, especially in excess of 10% pursuant to amended Prospectus resulting from these NAV changes as provided for in the Registration. A change of 10% or more of NAV requires a prospectus amendment.
    Bottom line, any business you don't understand needs a proper investment advisor IMO.
    Mar 30, 2014. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    @EA
    My Firefox crashes when I hit your links. Can you check them again please?
    Mar 29, 2014. 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    I'm In. I got too late a start on this one to test all my theories.
    Mar 29, 2014. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #15.......   [View instapost]

    OK Here are my plans at Open Monday

    Hold (CBI) Until Sell at 90.14 or 5/18/14 Stop 79.7
    Hold (DRN) Until Sell at 52.07 or 5/27 Stop 45.62
    Hold (UA) Until Sell at 127.50 or 6/6 Stop 108.88
    Hold (RYL) Until Sell at 44.60 or 6/25 Stop 36.86
    Sell (QCOR)at open Monday
    Buy 13k (VRSN) Sell at 58.76 or end June stop 51.08
    Buy 13k (MIDD) Sell 276.74 or end June Stop 246.43
    Buy the rest (FEYE) Sell 74.23 or end June Stop 58.93

    It's up to me to monitor prices and tell you if a Price Target, Time Target or Stop has triggered, then post Right?
    Mar 29, 2014. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #15.......   [View instapost]
    Well in my RLP, I own none of these, and departed from my disciplined Price and Time Targets in this Portfolio. What I am going to do this weekend is reset many positions in accordance with the Market Makers projections, then stick with my stocks for either my PT, or 3 months. While I was doing that, I was making money.
    I got my ego into my trading and got burned. Totally messed up what I was trying to prove.
    I'll post trades before opening Monday, along with Price Targets and Stops.
    Then I'll tell you when something hits.
    Mar 28, 2014. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    There will always be someone cherry picking stats to show their predictions were so right. What I am seeing is Gold down $90 (~7%) in 2 weeks. Hardly a world takeover to a gold standard.
    The Dollar Index meanwhile has dropped from 80.51 to 80.35. I won't even bother with that small a %.
    Yep, I guess the sky IS falling.
    Mar 28, 2014. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best-Buy Leveraged Long ETFs Now, By Intelligent Behavioral Analysis Of Market-Makers  [View article]
    3 Months have now gone by:
    QLD, TECL, SOXL URTY , and DZK closed out at Price Target.
    ERX, SPXL, FAS, and UPRO closed out at a profit, but not PT.
    Only EET and DDM closed with a small loss out of the 11.
    January and March have been among the worst since 2012 so pretty good IMO

    I hope to see an update on Long Levered ETFs soon, but the Market is very unstable atm IMO.
    Mar 28, 2014. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #15.......   [View instapost]
    Sell my (DUST) please
    Mar 28, 2014. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! PORTFOLIO #15.......   [View instapost]
    My (DUST) was highly profitable at one point today before falling. Is there any way to sell during the day by either Post at time, or posting a sell target price? Those Short ETF's always fall at close as people fear to hold overnight.
    I'm "Paper-Trade Brave" though LOL.
    Mar 27, 2014. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    @EA
    Jicama is in every store here in NM. It is like a starchless or low starch potato. Has really no flavor of it's own, but is crunchy and can be in any salad. It picks up the flavors of whatever you put in with it. The only change I would make to that recipie would be to substitute a fire roasted peeled Green Chile Pepper (chopped like 1/4 inch) for the boring old jalapeno'. Throw a few Pinon (Pine Nuts) on top. Fire roasting really brings out a unique flavor, and you just about can't get things without either Red or Green Chile with or on it here. In fact, the State Motto is Red or Green?".
    Another thing I learned here in NM is to use a few Juniper Berries (6-10/lb) to any roast, especially wild game like Venison or Elk. A few helps Leg-of-Lamb as well.
    Of course, Jicama is pronounced Hicama.
    P.S. Jicama is a good addition to stir-fry as well.
    Mar 27, 2014. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 60.....   [View instapost]
    Add in that the $RUT is breaking down, usually a leading indicator of correction. I'm 50% cash right now, with just dome defensive plays. Made a few cents on FAZ today, but not enough to do it again tomorrow.
    Mar 27, 2014. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GILD, BIB, Others: How Worried Are Market-Makers About 'Government Pricing?'  [View article]
    I just cannot let this price discussion go by without adding that part of what a Pharma needs to add to the price of every successful drug is development costs of drugs that do NOT make it to market. Without covering a company's entire costs, they could not stay in business. Coming from the Medical field, I know how horribly expensive research is. Sure there are a few companies making it huge on one drug without others in the pipeline; but if you look at the bottom lines of most of the Pharmas, they don't make more "Bottom Line" than other successful companies. QCOR is probably an exception, but then there are Tech companies way over the top (think Apple) as far as profit as well.
    Mar 27, 2014. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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