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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Got UDOW Parachute? Time To Bail Out [View article]
    As you say on your site, "Investing is a game because the outcomes depend entirely on other people’s perceptions and actions"
    I can remember in my computer gaming days that I always liked "Player vs Player" combat because your opponent's moves were unpredictable, where playing against the computer was inevitably predictable.
    The ranges you report are only predictions by Humans vs other Humans. So strongly evidenced by the surprise 10+% loss by LGF this week after breaking all expectations with their latest movie. It was totally missed by "predictors" (Analysts), and bit me bigtime. In time, they may prove right, but it was a huge surprise for me. The one newsletter that I actually pay for had just 2 weeks prior had made it their Star Pick of the Week! (If I say which I violate my confidentiality agreement.)
    Like an idiot, I did little DD and just jumped in on the first dip. It was profitable on last Friday, but I was almost ready to cry by noon Monday. I was close to screaming at my computer screen by Close Monday, as I had not put in a "Stop Loss".

    Thus it is with UDOW, AMZN (with it's 1300+PE) and so many other stocks that are either favored or not. If the "Herd" decides a direction, no "Informed Analysis" can stop the CHARGE!
    Nov 28 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fresh 'Best Buy' Candidates, Top 1% Of 2600 Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    I see BIIB hit it's target already last week.
    Nov 26 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lions Gate Entertainment Shares Ready To Catch Fire Once Again [View article]
    Sadly, I didn't get in until November @ 33.08. Had a worrisome few days, but looking to hit $36 easily by mid Dec. (I "Trade" not LT Invest). That's ~10% in about 6 weeks. Today may have been the last day for a Trader to get in with a decent <3 month profit, but you Longs will have a good year very likely. If it breaks $37 by my 39 Trading Days target, I will probably stay long with at least half my position.
    Nov 22 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lionsgate: Ender's Game Loses [View article]
    LGF up 3.75% today. Nuff Said. Here we have an Author with 76 Articles and 41 comments. Clearly the Author never reads the comments so no point in ever hitting this Author's sites ever again. no more 1 cent from me.
    Nov 22 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 ETFs That Can Beat SPY 4x Over, At Same Risk Ratio, Better Odds [View article]
    @robturner
    Just as an aside, UDOW is on the DOW, while the apparent "pick of the litter"(to me) here seems to me to be TQQQ, which is NASDAQ. Though they often move fairly closely together, there are often wide variations between Industrials and Techs.
    I know your question was about the SPY, but with an RI of 22 and days held of 29, my money will be in TQQQ.
    Nov 20 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Just Bought This Dirt Cheap Tech Stock [View article]
    AAPL has a long history of squeezing it's suppliers margins to the bone to increase it's own. I expect that they bought some product from Maxim because they wanted (1) To put downward pressure on CRUS because CRUS was fat and happy with having a lock on AAPL's business and (2) Sound quality is probably far lower on AAPL's priority than battery life, performance and graphics. CRUS is indeed vulnerable to AAPL's whims if 80% of their revenue comes from there.
    Part of the reason AAPL's SP has come to a screeching halt is because the Mini is expected to take massive sales away from Air the way that the original Mini took the wind out of the iPad's sails. http://bit.ly/1bDZXA8
    The iPad Mini sales explosion may be bad for AAPL's margins, but HAS to be good for CRUS.
    Add in the $1.5B tax issue for AAPL in Italy http://bit.ly/1bDZUV0
    and I personally would not be taking a bite of the Apple, but I will certainly do some DD on CRUS.
    Nov 16 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Got UDOW Parachute? Time To Bail Out [View article]
    After reading back through your articles it finally hit me. MM's don't usually sell a losing position at some "Stop Loss". Instead, they buy "insurance" against losing positions, thus making your research possible. The logic as I now understand is that they sell at the projected PT, or at the time expiration date. Since they have something akin to Puts protecting their money, that is the max drawdown before their "insurance" kicks in and they offset further loss by making money on the Short end sufficient to cover capital losses.
    It was like a light bulb going off. I have to learn to think like them. It's different than thinking like a small investor where I use Stop Loss orders of varying types, depending upon my Risk Tolerance.
    Nov 10 03:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unconventional ETF Profit Extraction: In 2 Years UDOW +134%, S&P Is Riskier And Only +43% [View article]
    IMO "Beta" could be caused by so many variables that it is useless unless someone can find a way to separate what I call Fundamental causes, such as drugs getting approval or coming "off-patent" as in drug companies, from emotional price movements caused by several so-called "Analysts" ganging up on a stock to either pump it or push it down. Most likely that is behind what drives MM's views on a stock. They have to get not only information on the fundamental drivers, but also the sentiment of the "Talking Heads". It never ceases to amaze me how many people trade on the word of analysts who can easily have an agenda far different than what they are spouting. I again go back just 1 year to when GS and JPM had Nokia at "Sell", while the banks were buying it hand-over-fist. I think it was JPM that increased their holdings ~700% while telling their customers to sell. During that time, NOK went from ~$1.7 to ~$2.7. In January, most dumped in the upper $4 range, while buying back as it was pushed down to ~$3. Now it is in the $7 range.
    At least this method is empirical, and, while still carries the element of risk, I cannot see where you can (absent releasing bogus data) be betting against your Data's revelations, nor should you need to, since you can profit along with your followers on this same data.
    IMO, whatever the source, Beta is not a metric of risk, but of increased opportunities in an active portfolio.
    Nov 8 02:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ranked Leveraged Long ETFs Offer 70%+ Gain Rates [View article]
    As I built a spreadsheet of this list, there were a LOT of ETF's added to table 2 that were not on table 1. This made it rather tricky to add in the new and extract the others.
    1. Why did you not just stay with the original list, paring off the ones with low sample sizes?
    2. It would have been informative to see where the substituted ones appear on a Risk-Reward plot. In fact, 4 of the top 11 (SSO, TNA, URTY, DDM,) were not on the R-R plot. That made it somewhat confusing as we don't know where they would have plotted out.
    3. Where do you draw the line on the amount of history that you felt made some irrelevant? I know this is not a perfect science, but having say 10 of 200 data points may compare mathematically to 50 of 1000; but how many data points does it take to be relevant?
    4. The way I read the R-R chart; UYG plots as the second lowest "Drawdown Risk" on the R-R Chart, second only to the AWOL URE, but in chart 2 below, it rates >12% worst case draw-down compared to at least 7 in single digits. Would not the vertical axis show a higher risk going up with increasing potential reward going to the right? That would seem the logical plot to me. Is the placement affected by the Range Index? If so, that puts a 3rd dimension into the graph.
    Nov 8 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Got UDOW Parachute? Time To Bail Out [View article]
    When it comes to sell targets on the losing side, Do the MM's sell at the lower range of their estimates, or at the low side of their estimated drawdowns?
    Nov 7 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft Q3 Reports Changed Price Range Forecasts [View article]
    @rebowley
    That part is the DD that must also figure in to any investment. What Peter finds is not "seeing the future" but is a fair determining of MM's OPINIONS. They may be well researched and "Best Guesses" but still just human opinions. Looking at the chart on AMZN you see favorable looking days from July through August, yet AMZN fell, and even in their history of days like now, they still lost 13% of the time.
    There are always unforeseen events that can hit a stock that no one sees coming.
    Nov 3 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft Q3 Reports Changed Price Range Forecasts [View article]
    I take it the last table is just alphabetized with no relationship to RI or other metric?
    Nov 2 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fresh 'Best Buy' Candidates, Top 1% Of 2600 Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    @Smee: -- In My Experience:
    If my position isn't too large, or I don't put some other restriction like "All or None", it should move with a limit order at my target price. That's what MM's do, is fill orders from Inventory if they have enough for all the orders. I see a lot of Block Orders during any given day. I can assume that some are MM's moving in and out of positions, but not in chunks so big as to move the price too far unfavorably. That is why the "Retail investor" cannot follow their predictions by stock blocks, you get too much data too fast, and can never know who is trading for who. The Big Kids can find these things out I suppose, I sure can't.
    Nov 1 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth: Market Forecasters? [View article]
    Sorry I never was able to put up a list of my spreadsheets following Peter, but as I researched it, I noticed that Peter himself has posted several articles about how the MM projections have played out. Essentially the conclusion I came to was that it is not Peter that I was tracking, but what the MM's were thinking, and they are seldom wrong when they feel a high probability of success. Certainly they have to inventory many stocks, losers as well as winners, but they hedge positions when they feel a stock will not perform, and it's those "Hedge Prices" that reveal how they feel. If you were forced to carry an inventory of a stock on the edge of disaster, wouldn't you buy a Short position sufficient to pay for the expected decline? The MM's don't just buy puts, they have other ways to insure against losses. Tracking those alternate methods is where Peter's data comes in. I sure cannot find ways. Tracking Puts can be disastrous in a Short Squeeze situation. Not understanding options well anyway, I avoid them.
    Oct 30 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Technology's CEO Discusses F1Q 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    At 70% Free Cash Flow being returned to investors, they are showing some desperation to maintain SP. With that kind of ratio, the dividend should not have been raised. IMO if they do not continue to increase sales and margins, that dividend may not be sustainable past another year. While business is good and looks good for quite a while yet, they have a long way to go to get out of "Junk" status on their borrowing.
    They appear to be mortgaging their future in order to pump SP. I will sell on any decent pop.
    Oct 29 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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