Seeking Alpha

OldWarrior

OldWarrior
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View OldWarrior's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • American Capital Agency: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    The reality is that if you research a stock instead of just reading SA, they tell you where they get their money, and often more details such as:
    "On July 31, 2013, American Capital Agency Corp.'s (ACAC) parent company, American Capital, Ltd (ACL) announced that it will launch a refinancing of its $600 million senior secured credit facility. ACL reported that the proposed refinancing is expected to include changes to the pricing terms of the existing credit facility to reflect more favorable current market pricing, a six month extension of the call protection period for lenders from the effective date and also amendments to certain covenants. The Company further reported that J.P. Morgan Securities LLC will be the joint lead arranger and the joint bookrunner on the transaction. The Full Research Report on American Capital Agency Corp. - including full detailed breakdown, analyst ratings and price targets - is available to download free of charge at: [http://bit.ly/18NEUKl] "

    Anyone with any tax sense holds dividend paying stocks for >60 days to make the dividends "Non-Qualified".
    I picked up AGNC 9/10 @ $23.14, and ignored the noise after I found out QE would continue. I'm up ~3% plus dividends (>13%), so If I do this quarterly, I could be up 60-70%, assuming AGNC holds ~$24. It probably will until interest rates climb, maybe up much more.
    Dividend Capture is a tad more complex than firing off a buy the day before x-dividend and requires just as much DD as any Long position for all of the reasons the Author so honestly admits he did wrong. Kudos for the honesty and the teaching of how NOT to trade.
    1. Establish a buy range with DD
    2. Establish a holding period
    3. Establish a sell target.
    Sell when either the time target hits, or the PT triggers.

    Suggested reading for Traders Peter F. Way. you will learn a ton about the power of time in investing strategies.
    Oct 24 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Al Michaels & Chris Collinsworth: Market Forecasters? [View article]
    From this can I assume that the "Insurers" also make money by betting against the other MM? If they both make money, guess who is paying the bill-the Retail Investor I assume mostly.
    Does the US Government give them special tax treatment in order to provide this liquidity? If so, there goes more of my money.
    How did they come about? Was it a law or just market demand?
    Oct 23 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Windows Phone May Struggle In China [View article]
    Amazing that you went the entire article without mentioning the rest of the Lumia line. You seem to be focused on the Faboi segment, forgetting that there are more.
    While the top end Lumias may not be big sellers, don't forget that there is a Lumia for every price level.
    I think you are going to be surprised.
    Oct 23 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Mobile Communication Device Stock Buy Now, As Seen By Market-Maker Hedging [View article]
    One must consider certain "Non-Technical" issues with AAPL atm, as they just released their first new product in a year, and another expected on the 22nd. Thus the Big Mo right now.
    Even the Big Kids missed the GOOG pop on earnings, although they were positive, no one expected what hit.
    Oct 21 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Google Price Spike, Pre-Earnings Release Outlooks Revised [View article]
    As expected, Amazon just keeps climbing, and the chart shows more expected upside despite their unbelievably bad fundamentals. It just goes to show that fundamentals cannot always be the only factor in a SP.
    Is this momentum or just expectations that at some point Amazon will have enough market share to control pricing?
    Any thoughts?
    Oct 21 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector ETFs: Simplified Portfolio Recipe Or Investment Indigestion? [View article]
    Question, Do MM's carry inventories of ETF's like they do individual stocks?
    As you have pointed out, by spreading an ETF's holdings out over a number of stocks in a sector, you are bound to own some winners and some losers. Not all companies in a sector are created equal.
    Finally my most hated of "Ratings" is Morningstar. They do no forward looking research, they are based solely on Past Performance, which is of course, no guarantee of future......, and yet, they are the most often quoted metric when one looks them up.

    To take the opposing point of view though, I'm not sure your method of evaluation is as effective at pointing out Risk/Rewards of ETF's as it is of individual stocks. One example is VHT, which your method rates as annualized 16%, while they are up ~29% in the last year.

    I'm going to go back to that list of ETF's you listed on ~9/16, and compare the R/R to the 3 month charts at the end of my 3 month study and see if there is a disconnect with ETF's vs Stocks on this methodology. I'm also going to make a watchlist of this list.
    Oct 18 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Intel Still Win Apple's Chip Business? [View article]
    @Cube
    Maybe he has seen this secret contract with TSMC as well.
    Considering that INTC beat on profits and margins today today despite lower revenue, I don't buy the "less efficient Intel" either.
    Oh well, <insert quote from Dilbert here Re. arguing with idiots>.
    Nevermind the argument that AAPL is unhappy with TSMC's "sub-par" yields even at what 28nm? So how well will they do at 16 in 3 or so years?
    Still, I remain with my stance that INTC will not soon accept Apple's typical "low-margin" contract offerings. The few $ in mobile chips that INTC will miss out on is still minor compared to the big margin Server chips that are where Intel lives.
    Neither long nor short Intel "this week".
    Oct 16 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Intel Still Win Apple's Chip Business? [View article]
    @Dano
    Whether it is or not, and if so for how long is irrelevant as long as the buying public believes it is.
    If AAPL can convince the "Public" it is, then they sell product, and that's all that matters in the next year or 2 (maybe longer).
    Intel has a lot of catching up to do, both in production and in perception.
    Oct 16 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Intel Still Win Apple's Chip Business? [View article]
    The only reason to buy Intel would be if INTC cannot/will not agree to AAPL's contract demands on price. Assuming that Apple badly wants INTC chips (not soon), then AAPL just buys the whole company.
    Right now, Apple has that 64 bit chip that the public believes is SUPER. Regardless of whether it really has an effect on the consumer experience, when it comes to selling, Image is everything.

    Seriously doubt that the FTC would approve considering that both are considered "US Companies", and the FTC just stopped the airline merger on far less "reasoning".
    Oct 16 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Intel Still Win Apple's Chip Business? [View article]
    From TheStreet.com
    PROFITABILITY
    Q2 FY13 Q2 FY12
    Gross Profit Margin 73.30% 76.40%
    EBITDA Margin 36.76% 42.00%
    From their Q2 10K
    Gross margin percentage
    Q2 2013 Q1 2013
    58.3% 56.2%

    OK, I made the rookie mistake of just 1 source, but 58.3% is still a lot more than AAPL is willing to allow.
    Oct 16 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Intel Still Win Apple's Chip Business? [View article]
    INTC is running ~73% margins, while Apple suppliers are often as low as 1% margins. Apple uses it's volume purchasing power to muscle suppliers into minimal margins on the promise of high volume. Only if Intel can get a massive performance/power consumption leap would AAPL pay them the margins that INTC would want. What would have to happen first is that INTC gets into so many other Mobile products that AAPL would be perceived as "behind the curve", would they give INTC a foundry margin>10%.
    Not going to happen soon with AAPL's new CPU being viewed by the buying public as "Head and Shoulders above the rest". I won't argue whether it really is, but the iPx buyers think so, and that's what sells.
    Oct 15 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WARNING! Don't Take Beta-Blockers To Reduce Your Portfolio's Volatility [View article]
    By the way Peter, while your ideas of investing in stock are of great value, until you open your page to Retail Investors, we have few ways of getting the information that you use. You have me sold on the method, but outside of your site, where can the retail investor dig out these gems???
    Oct 9 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WARNING! Don't Take Beta-Blockers To Reduce Your Portfolio's Volatility [View article]
    I think part of the issue here may be the cost of time. A well paid person making even $20 - $30/hour or more, often actually works twice the "40 hours/week" that people want to, and recreation time is scarce. I know that I often worked 90 or more. At this point, many people in non-financial fields would rather enjoy "family time" than research stocks. While I agree with Peter, it does take time to do stock research. The answer IMO, is take a weekend every quarter, or maybe even a 3-day weekend, to invest in your future needs, be they College for children, retirement, whatever.
    3-6 hours per buy should be plenty, less for those who know the field.
    I'm not talking about esoteric Options Strategies, but just even quarterly re-balancing. Don't forget to limit risk by Stop Limit orders at your Risk Tolerance level. Ordinary Stop-Loss orders get executed at Market, so a day when a computer glitches can wipe out good positions.
    Turning your money over to investment managers, especially in products you don't understand is even worse. Please read this short Bloomberg article.
    http://bloom.bg/15UvfCy
    I know it's a pain to go isolate yourself from all that fun you work so hard for to do the necessary DD, but it beats depending on Social Security for retirement, or having a coronary at 50 and what that means to your dependents.
    IMO, this should apply not just to the 5%, but to anyone who wants to live off their own efforts later.
    Oct 9 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intel Stock Is Not A Lousy Investment [View article]
    "Nowadays, Intel does more and more strange PR. Why doesn't Intel just make better chips that add more value to customers? "

    Best question in the whole string.
    Oct 8 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Its New Ivy Bridge Positions The Company For Margin Increase And Growth [View article]
    IMO having the fastest chip like the Apple 64bit on a Phone, or even Tablet is somewhat wasted, as the 4G pipeline makes the CPU have to wait on Data doesn't it? Maybe if you played at home on your own Internet, but then I would go to my PC. Is WiFi faster than 4G on a Tablet? I'm far from an expert, and have not been a Power Gamer for many years. I have the $ for whatever I want, but most of the Power Gamers I played with did as well. Most would skip meals for a faster Chip. (And often did anyway in the intensity of a game like WoW).
    Anyone ever do Statistics on Gamers Disposable Income?
    My need for speed is due to my Photography Hobby, so I need a discrete Graphics card even more than a CPU if my research is right? What really would be my best bet for heavy duty Photoshop Processing?
    Oct 7 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,408 Comments
1,126 Likes