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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    The only thing I would add as a "Legend" is that as the daily price moves up on a daily range scale, the higher the downside, and the lower the upside. (See my link below to a Blockdesk Tool discussion.) I need to add comparative tools showing price movements along these estimates (represented by the vertical bar). The way I personally read this tool is that the price has only climbed up the estimates during the November period; which to me shows a lot more optimism than results in this Stock.
    Feb 9, 2014. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shifts In Smartphone Regional Demand Favor Microsoft And Google [View article]
    I am not looking backwards, nor far forwards. I am a Trader, not a Buy and Hold investor. IMO there will be the opportunity for short term trades during 2014, and I am not looking yet beyond that. I should have stated that early in my post. That is why I disregarded the Windows Phones. All technology has a limited lifespan in which money can be made; just don't hang around too long lest your latest Whizz-Bang blows up in your face.
    That said, AAPL has a large following who will be buying Apps and secondary items that will provide income. Sadly, they are sitting on a great hoard without spending adequately <IMO> on R&D.
    If they had, there would not be these endless rehashes of the iPhone, where larger screens are but a rumor; and little new hits the market. Those who speak of such things as the 64 bit processor must remember that it did not come from AAPL. They only write the OS. One constantly wonders just why they need such a cash position when the world awaits serious new innovations.
    For a short term peek, I refer you to Peter Way's article: http://bit.ly/M0Piqc
    Feb 9, 2014. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shifts In Smartphone Regional Demand Favor Microsoft And Google [View article]
    IMO Market Share is one of the most misleading metrics in the Mob world. Win phones appear to be projected to sell ~35% of the number of AAPL phones in your second chart; and yet the $ value of that market is not going to be anywhere near 35% of AAPL's $ share.
    Numbers of phones in this market nowhere near reflects income. I believe your math should be estimating the dollar-value-market-sh... based upon "Best Guess" margins. I fully understand that guestimating that $ value is fraught with difficulty; but then again, these estimates are also conjecture. A huge number of those ~12m WP phones sold in India will be the <$100 phones, as will the majority of the Android phones in these "Low Income" markets. Considering the price of even the iP4 phones targeting this type of market, the $ value will almost certainly match the WP $ value in those markets.

    When we see AAPL's margins for the current Q, we should be able to extrapolate the 2014 profits of Android and AAPL sales. WP will be much more difficult to extrapolate this early after the purchase of Nokia's Devices due to all the difficulties in absorbing such a huge bite. It may take a year to settle in to predictability, maybe more considering the huge changes at MSFT. In any event, the real battle is between Samsung and AAPL, the rest are comparative "bit players" with the exception of Chinese companies selling locally (besides my mistrust of ANY numbers that are generated in China and have to pass government approval).

    Only when we can place a dollar value on Market Share will we see the truth. Either Samsung or MSFT could cut prices to the bone, and take numerical Market Share at a loss for a few quarters; but I just have a tough time thinking AAPL will reverse course and "Price War" top end phones. As for the i4, the components are so obsolete now that they could use that to create artificial market share while still selling them at a profit. Whether they do that is pure speculation in my eyes atm.

    I have no position in any large Tech company, nor do I plan on establishing any direct position in the near future. I may, however, buy ETFs that have positions; so I have no axe to grind, nor any anticipated. I just believe that statistics can too easily be manipulated to make any decision until the stats are based upon $ value (hopefully audited). The lack of information that Samsung sends the SEC makes things even tougher for me to analyze right now.
    I personally believe that AAPL is nearly fairly valued as of this week, but I can see plenty of upside potential after the markets re-stabilize.
    My buy range for AAPL would be below $510 if I were in the market for them, with an estimated 5-10% gain over 3-6 months.
    The SPY actually looks more profitable as of this week, as well as many of the long levered ETFs right now.
    If I already owned AAPL, I would hold, and expect to hold it a while yet. IMO it's not a short target.
    Feb 8, 2014. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: In Trouble? What Market-Makers Make Of It [View article]
    As I always say, most "Analysts" have an agenda, and that agenda is not necessarily favorable to the retail investor. Often their company is buying while the analysts say SELL, and selling while they say BUY. What they say publicly is always disclaimed.
    This tool is not generated from analyst's opinions, but by what they are having to pay for some type of "insurance" against their possibility of losses. We'll soon see if those trends have turned down solidly, or return to optimism.
    Feb 6, 2014. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged-Long ETF Buys, Seen Through Intelligent Behavior Analysis Lenses [View article]
    Perhaps I can help clarify something. As you look at the Tool, you see a white block somewhere along a vertical line. Quite often, as time goes by, the white block rises above the top of a previous vertical line. That vertical line was that day's estimated ranges. The top of the line is the estimated gain. When later, that white block (the day's ending price) exceeds the top of a previous vertical line's top, then that position has reached the previous Price Target. In other words, the vertical line is the Range Estimate for that day. Some time later, the price exceeds the top of that range. At that point the position would be closed, unless it took more than the allowed time to reach that peak.
    That any help?
    Feb 6, 2014. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    Just remember that Volatility is not a bad thing. It provides opportunities to get into and out of positions that produce repeated gains far above a "Buy and Hold" position. Volatility=Opportunity. I believe that almost every portfolio should have a certain % set aside for taking advantage of these opportunities; and personally, that % in my portfolio will increase substantially once Blockdesk.com opens up.
    Feb 2, 2014. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    Having followed Peter very closely for over a year, a common time-to-price target is 3 months, or 63 market days. All things considered, I personally would expect AAPL to hit it's PT sooner; but I also would not close out my position before then in this case unless it did hit it's PT.
    Occasionally Peter gives a different timeline, so I claim no greater insight here than he has expressed in this article. I am still only a student.
    Feb 2, 2014. 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    @Author
    Since you include CapEx in your FCF calculations, I think you are blinding yourself from companies that require considerable CapEx like the very top cutting edge companies while putting a premium on companies that underspend on CapEx. AAPL has a long history of buying companies for their technology rather than spending their own cash hoard to invest in their own research. I think I can safely assume that you would never touch INTC, and missed their ~20% runup from ~21 to >26 because of their high CapEx. I really don't care enough about AAPL to run the numbers; but when a Tech underspends on CapEx, they can get seriously hammered by companies like Nokia who have massive Patent Portfolios. The very thing in your calculation that keeps a company on the cutting edge is somehow attractive to you. When a company like AAPL underspends on CapEx, we get the minimal innovations that AAPL has shown us since Steve left. That 64 bit processor didn't come from AAPL research, they bought it. By your metric, R&D is BAD, as it is included in CapEx as much as building a new FAB is under generally acceptable accounting standards.
    Please Please check your figures against Revenues minus Depreciation and Amortization and compare your results. As an added bonus, if a company pays a dividend, using my metric will tell you how safe that Dividend is. If they pay out >50% of FCF, the Div is shaky. If over 70%, it is unsustainable.
    Feb 2, 2014. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Carriers like Verizon routinely back up whatever you want from any phone you use, so iCloud is rather irrelevant. I personally back up everything on my phone to my 2TB storage drive. In my case, even the Cloud is irrelevant. Backing up data on every tech toy I have is simple since I can set it to backup every time I hook my phone to my PC or Laptop to charge it, and my toys to other places on my home network.
    Repeat business comes not from being locked into an ecosystem; but from satisfaction with my brand of toy.
    Feb 2, 2014. 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Sadly; There are still people out there who actually risk their hard earned money on the word of a Bank Based "Analyst"
    From summer 2012 to Q1 2013 JPM and GS had NOK at Sell, while one doubled their position, the other increased position by 700%. Nokia went from <$2 to >$4 during that time, when those banks dumped their ~$2.5 stocks at >$4.
    The only thing "Analysts" are good for is that once in a while they point out something worth further DD. Mercifully, they no longer kill trees to spout their blathering. At least we can re-use the pixels.
    Even so-called "Independent Analysts' often have an agenda, or at best are late to the party.

    Personally, I expect the correction to end rather soon, but am ~50% cash. I can guarantee that whatever I buy coming out will not be influenced by any "Analyst".
    Feb 2, 2014. 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    I respectfully disagree that Apple is coveted by all. As a Baby Boomer, few of us care about Brands over Function. (We don't buy $300 sneakers either) and we DO have much of the wealth. Statistics also show more homes have PC's than Smartphones ATM.
    That said, if an iPhone or iPad meets our needs better, that is what we buy.
    http://bit.ly/1eIpCFL
    Android phones taking Market Share from about everyone.
    BUT
    http://bit.ly/1eIpENR
    and
    http://bit.ly/1eIpCFN
    So AAPL's still likely to bring out more interesting goodies in the next few years.
    Disclaimer: I am neither short nor long any Tech company today, but may buy, sell or short anything on a daily basis.
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1nCRzqd
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    See what you get with my definition above. CapEx is controllable, Dep & Amort are not. Probably will not differ a lot, but CapEx is a decision where Depreciation & Am are fixed.
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Even "THE CARL" cannot manage to buy enough to manipulate AAPL. His $500m buy didn't move the needle last week (Last week of Jan).
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Just 1 question. How do you define Free Cash Flow?
    My definition has always been Revenue minus Depreciation and Amortization, as only those 2 are unavoidable and uncontrollable costs. Everything else can be managed (and manipulated).
    A great new unbiased article on AAPL was just published by Peter Way.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    He is showing that the Market Makers are estimating ~20% upside; but <IMO> only after this blind correction stabilizes. His timelines are usually ~3 months.
    For those unfamiliar with him. he has a method of tracking how much the MMs pay for "hedging" their investments and deriving from how much they pay, how optimistic or pessimistic they are on a given stock.
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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