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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Best ETF Buys Vs. Best Buys Of 2529 Forecasts From Market-Maker Hedging [View article]
    Thanks, The reply wasn't up when I posted. I had suspected they had been excluded for a good reason.
    Sep 30 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WARNING! Don't Take Beta-Blockers To Reduce Your Portfolio's Volatility [View article]
    If I found a fund that I could buy into whose fees were based solely upon the fund's performance, I would happily invest regularly into it, and certainly tell my friends about it. Sadly, most of these funds require a 6 figure buy-in, far more than I want to spend. I'm not able to find any despite my best efforts, as no brokerage will ever point me in that direction as they would lose so much money from their "Managed Accounts" (see my comment in "Risk Simply Stated" about where Schwab makes their money).
    Sep 30 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will The New Nokia's Margins Look Like? [View article]
    JP Morgan Cazenove used PE of 14 in it's valuations of the new Nokia in
    http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    to get a top value of €6.55/share. ($8.56 US) @ 1.3522 today's Forex (Sept 28)
    15/14... Speculation at it's best
    The same article placed a midpoint at €5.79/share ($7.83US) same Forex.
    Low was €5.03 ($6.80)
    Considering that JPM had a PT of $2.00 until very recently-take it for what it's worth. They could just as easily be pulling numbers out of thin air as anyone until we see Q3 numbers.
    Sep 28 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will The New Nokia's Margins Look Like? [View article]
    AH
    I'm surprised you had a NOK position to close as negative as you have always been on NOK. When, may I ask did you close your last? I closed my last that I had bought at ~6 at 6.58. At what point might you initiate a new position? I believe I will go in on any pullback below 6.5 or wherever it finds support (considering the potential US Political situation has hurt most stocks), assuming that it is before Earnings, as it will undoubtedly pop at Earnings. I say this because I believe MSFT had to get in when they did because they were projecting a good Q3, and MSFT would have had to pay a lot more. Elop may not be getting along with his wife, but he has a great Marriage with MSFT. If NOK was going to disappoint this Q, MSFT could have gotten in considerably cheaper. This was an Insider Trade if I ever saw one.
    As HERE is going to be generating revenue from every device MSFT sells, as stated above, it should move to profitability instantly; considering that the old D&S never paid it any revenues "on paper",(and won't until D&S is gone or is profitable.
    Sep 28 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buys Currently Among Energy ETFs [View article]
    I only took a small position in F as I don't like the political climate right now. I am still >30% cash. I think there will be some opportunities after DC settles it's squabbles, and stocks may have an even better entry point at that time. I may even be thinking about some short levered ETF's Tuesday morning.
    Thanks for the comparison value. It does make sense to have a "Baseline" of the less attractive positions to compare the better ones to.
    Sep 28 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WARNING! Don't Take Beta-Blockers To Reduce Your Portfolio's Volatility [View article]
    What most people fear is the rumor that "You cannot Time the market", and treat active investing as just that. Re-balancing your portfolio just makes sense, and with proper DD, is necessary depending upon your desire to take over your own destiny. There are many once-solid stocks that have gone nowhere in the last decade.
    Talking to my Schwab broker a while back, he admitted that they make only a tiny % of their income from Trades, the majority of their income comes from managing other people's money. Think about that when you buy your Mutual fund that pays 4-5%, then has >1.5% expense ratio. I see some exceeding 2%. You work or worked hard for that money, but the fund manager gets his % whether the fund goes up or down. I can clearly remember the year that an IRA that I had forgotten to roll over lost 17% in 1 year, but the Manager still collected his %. That was many years ago, and the last year that I ever had money in an IRA that someone else was paid to manage.
    Sep 28 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best ETF Buys Vs. Best Buys Of 2529 Forecasts From Market-Maker Hedging [View article]
    Essentially what I get from this relates to my comment on another forum where the ETF's represent the lower risk, yet lower reward vs the equities often have higher risk/reward ratios. I'm surprised though that the top dozen ETF's don't show more levered ETF's. Are they just not labeled, or did you exclude them? (I didn't look up the ETF's).
    Sep 28 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buys Currently Among Energy ETFs [View article]
    Again, no buys here for me.
    Still looking at the last ETF watch list from about a week ago, but with the budget issues, certainly far too soon to draw any conclusions.
    I think my F position may be at risk due to the unforeseen possibility of F losing it's winning CEO. If he does get hired by MSFT, F will tank on pure uncertainty. MSFT should jump if he does, but how long that increase will last is problematical, and I just don't like the uncertainty.
    Sep 28 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Risk Simply Stated [View article]
    Thank you all for all the Flowers. I speak only from my own (sometimes painful) experience and observations. NOT moving is usually more profitable than moving without DD.
    Sep 26 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Shareholders Approve The Acquisition? [View article]
    MSFT had to move quickly to buy at the low-ball price they did. IMO this deal is an indication that D&S did very well this Q, and after Earnings, would have had to pay far more.
    Sep 26 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    Although WP has a rather similarly small Market Share, it has a company with a wealth of money and programmers to push it. BBRY has neither. I really hate to see so many Retail investors get so hosed by a company they believed in. The Institutional investors holding ~46% of the company when last updated by TD Ameritrade may or may not have gotten out with priority status over the retail elements. In any event, they should have known about the reporting tricks being pulled based upon BBRY phone usage indicators reported elsewhere here. Someone failed to blow the whistle.
    Sep 25 02:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: This Is Just Plain Ugly [View article]
    If I'm not mistaken, Apple could have counted phones shipped to Sprint on the "Take or Pay" contract that Sprint signed. They could not be returned to Apple because of the contract. Apparently BBRY had no such leverage to get such a contract.
    As I have said elsewhere, if I was a BBRY Long, I would be livid over the obvious IMO deliberate tactic to depress BBRY stock to bargain levels for the probable buyers.
    Sep 25 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Risk Simply Stated [View article]
    First a little background, I too was in Medicine, but I am also a combat veteran, and know how fleeting life is so my investing time frames are much shorter than 10+ years. I too have worked many nights and weekends dealing with ill people, from the suicidal alcoholic, to movie stars with strokes and cardiac arrests (not all sick people chose to live "high risk" lives) We all have health issues at times, and in the words of my Cardiology Professor "You are going to lose them all eventually".
    I took money I made, invested in privately owned small companies such as Mobile Ultrasound, Labs that serviced areas that could not afford the High Tech equipment etc. I had no intention of retiring rich for 5-10 years then gifting my earnings to my children. I gave them education and (I hope) motivation, and they can choose their lifestyle. I retired at age 46 on a comfortable income.

    Now to Investing. The Market Makers that Peter referred to have to carry an inventory of both winning and losing stocks in order to provide their role as providers of Market Liquidity. When you buy or sell 100-1000 shares or even more, most brokers do not stand on the floor bidding and asking, they buy from a MM. It's the MM's who have to find buyers and sellers, for which they work very hard, and if successful, get paid very well. There is real risk for them, as demonstrated by the near demise of one recently when their computer program went crazy. Each trader working at these companies specializes, gathers information unavailable as quickly as a retail investor can, and invests his/her share of the company funds. Since they must have these large inventories, even of stocks that may well be "At Risk", they have to know how much to spend to mitigate risk.

    From what I have learned at Peter's feet, knowing how much is spent mitigating risk indicates how much risk they feel is in any given equity. By investing in equities that have less risk, you probably will get less reward. Balancing risk/reward is the result of not only knowing what the MM's think, but your own Due Diligence.
    I never invest in an equity that I have not put at least 3 hours of DD into, regardless of "Analyst (often biased) opinion". I read 10Q's, 6K's, studies of sector risk, and other items as I have posted on my Instablog. If I am going to invest an above average amount into a stock, I will of course invest more time into DD. This is an underestimation of the time I research a stock, as researching stocks is a hobby. However, most people can probably find out enough information in about 3 hours before investing. Many times I have learned enough in 30 minutes to say NO to a particular stock; but lacking some glaring issue, I continue to dig.
    Consider how long it took you to earn the money you are willing to risk. I'm not talking about (for instance) the whole "Position", but the amount of that position that you are willing to lose before bailing out. If your tolerance is 10%, and you earn that 10% in a week (often 40-60 hours), you might want to think about how much time you took before buying. If you cannot be convinced to buy within 10% (4-6 hours) of that week, then you may want to invest in something more convincing.
    I have a quite high risk tolerance, as my "Trading Account" is not my retirement money, but for most people their Risk Tolerance is dependent upon how many years of income lie ahead.
    Last note-when investing in a Mutual Fund, be careful to look at the expense ratio. It's of little value to gain 4% if you are paying 1.5% to the fund. As an aside, statistics frequently show that there is no positive relationship between a fund's expense and their success, in fact, the opposite is more likely. Also, While every Prospectus ends with "Past performance is no etc, Morningstar Ratings are exactly that, they are 100% based upon past performance.
    Sep 24 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Shareholders Approve The Acquisition? [View article]
    Thanks Micháël <grin>
    I had remembered it was 4 digit. :)
    Sep 24 03:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Shareholders Approve The Acquisition? [View article]
    @Seppo
    Will do, If I find a few to choose from, I'll post on Seppo's "New Nokia" blog and my own Instablog, Maybe we can start a new Blog for discussion and pooling thoughts. I have an Instablog about picking stocks up already at http://bit.ly/12OgkaX.
    I'm open to additions of stock picking ideas there. I'm not looking for Buy-and-hold stocks, more ones that are 3-6 months Trade-able.
    Peter F Way is a great source for <3 month movers at times. My Blog is a "Work-in-progress" so any idea/criticism is welcome. I haven't updated it in quite a while.
    Sep 24 03:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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