OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    The Draft this year is a real ZOO!
    Some guys seem like they are trying to dodge it like it is the Army doing the Drafting.

    It was Denver's 1st round pick that will start his NFL career on probation for drugs.

    There was a guy from Utah drafted in (I think) round 3 who admitted to a positive drug test in College but wanted to impress the Pro teams with how dedicated he was. He set up some 15 appointments, was late to several and blew off the Raiders meeting entirely. Then was STILL drafted within the first 3 rounds!!!
    Then there was the guy projected to go about 16th or so. He announced before the draft that he would not sign with anyone if he was not drafted in the first 3 rounds.
    It's really not good to be applying for a job and start the interview with an Ultimatum to prospective employers!
    Of course, he was not drafted by anyone as of the end of round 3 last night. He is an OT and it appears that he will be playing another year in college if still eligible. I am thinking that once you announce for the Draft that the NCAA scoots you out the door. In any event, maybe he'll be better off going ahead and getting a degree. Hopefully he will take some classes in not being stupid.
    May 2, 2015. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    Free BTF of the Day at Blockdesk.com

    DATE SYMBOL High Low Now STP% WCD RI ODDS % P/O DH AROR Sample Size

    05/01/15 GLD $125.74 $110.19 $113.47 10.8% -6.4% 16 46/100 -1.6% 60 -7.00% 184 of 1261
    To those not familiar with these forecasts, I'll explain tomorrow when awake and less Medicated.
    STP%=Sell Target Price %Gain
    WCD=Worst Case Drawdown
    RI=Range Index (The % of the estimated range where today's price is.
    % P/O=Historical gain when at similar Range Index.
    DH=Days held to get price (Max=63)
    AROR=Annual Rate Of Return.
    Sample Size=Times in the max 5 year history of the stock when it had a similar RI. (Expressed as Market Days)
    I wish I could post the graphs attendant to this, but you can view them at http://bit.ly/1QWGQWl
    May 2, 2015. 02:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    BTW, my tea leaves say that we probably have wrung about as much as we can from FTNT@~$38.50.
    May 2, 2015. 12:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    I should have stuck to my own advice and stayed 50% invested. I bought some new stocks on Monday and then we hit this down week. While it should reverse itself, it almost always takes a few days before a new purchase begins to add much to profitability. Add to that miserable week and suddenly I'm down ~4k from last week 17.8k-13.9k :(
    If I don't unload some profitable stocks early in the month, I could run up another ~$500 in margin interest fees.
    May 2, 2015. 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    Did we really lose 2 players yesterday? Looks like Dr Doom and Sunshine are AWOL on my page.
    Quite a bit of shuffel in just a day:
    1 JohnBinTN 309.94 117,472.60 100,000.00 117,782.54 17.78%
    2 cbowman 157.72 115,643.40 100,000.00 115,801.12 15.80%
    3 OldWarrior -93,824.00 207,798.50 100,000.00 113,974.50 13.97%
    4 User7 -49,965.22 163,538.74 100,000.00 113,573.52 13.57%
    5 EconAnalyst -5,171.41 116,739.82 100,000.00 111,568.41 11.57%
    6 NewbieTrader 390.50 110,898.00 100,000.00 111,288.50 11.29%
    7 carltonritz1 -104,329.33 213,248.00 100,000.00 108,918.67 8.92%
    8 crademan 581.01 103,111.25 100,000.00 103,692.26 3.69%
    9 Cwinn 26,977.38 61,816.00 100,000.00 88,793.38 -11.21%
    10 Carl2014 -70,270.70 148,287.45 100,000.00 78,016.75 -21.98%
    11 JohnWilson 5,982.87 63,110.00 100,000.00 69,092.87 -30.91%
    12 nocnurzfred -52,435.95 119,209.60 100,000.00 66,773.65 -33.23%
    13 Interesting -81,019.90 146,899.00 100,000.00 65,879.10 -34.12%
    14 kanwar99 -5,689.78 126,872.90 100,000.00 65,737.12 -34.26%
    15 deercreekvols -10,991.57 74,182.12 100,000.00 63,190.55 -36.81%
    16 lockbrain 897.41 30,515.00 100,000.00 31,412.41 -68.59%
    17 MadcapLaughs -20,962.07 48,585.50 100,000.00 27,623.43 -72.38%
    May 1, 2015. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 118  [View instapost]
    " His plan was to buy up to 500,000 shares, when he buys something he wants it to go DOWN in order to buy more and build the position without affecting the price upwards. His words were, "20,000 shares is a ham sandwich odd lot position, I'm not in this for nickels and dimes". "
    This is exactly why Market Makers exist. They are the people you turn to to execute large Block trades without undue effect on the SP. They can bring a rising price down by hedges, which others notice and say"There is a growing Short on XYZ and I better get out!"
    May 1, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    I'll do some research and get back to you. My understanding about Limit orders, and my experience thereof, is that if you set a limit of =>$10, it will not sell below 10 but may sell at 10.50 or more. That is, in fact the definition of a >="Limit Order".
    May 1, 2015. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    Thank you Indianmark. I knew that photography had fallen away. Production 40% more than China bought is probably why silver is so low. IMO People expect China to be buying MORE silver than is produced.
    In any event, I know more now than I did.
    What do you view as a "realistic price"?
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    "Real income actually rose strongly ?? "
    That just is to say that it costs me only $40 instead of $60 to fill the tank on my Minivan.
    Now if I drove daily to a job, that would matter, but since the van is used only like 1x/week to the Grocery Store, it means squat to me! (I have to use the minivan to carry my power wheelchair).
    What they are saying is that as oil prices recover, this transitory income increase will go "poof".
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    OAG
    I am in no way disputing that in 5 or 10 years we will be looking at a very different economic picture than we currently see. For that very reason, I chose to use a very short investment timeline. My crystal Ball only sees 3 months ahead and at my age, and caring for a wife who has continuing small strokes, 3 months is all I care to use.
    If I were motivated, I could probably be at least as accurate as most of the so called "Economists" that preach out of both sides of their mouths about where we are headed. I'm sure you could too.
    Economists are one of very few professions that have no real Professional standards, they require no continuing education, and no one is ever surprised when they reverse their opinions.
    IF we see recovery in the Middle Class, then there is the possibility of repayment of our debt, and a continued Dollar standard. I am not optimistic. The key indicator of a recovering Middle Class is the Russel 2000 Index. Those Small Caps are where the job growth is and for many years has been. That is the indicator that I watch to see recovery or not.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    OAG
    If they bought that silver on Margin, and the government raises the margin due to some fear, JPM might be at some risk. I am sure that they have hedged it better than the Hunts though. They surely learned.
    Unlike JPM, the Hunts put a VERY large % of their wealth into their silver purchases, so could not add the capital needed to meet the new margin requirements. I am rather sure that JPM has the capital to buffer themselves against such a strategy. If the Government wants to curtail their holdings, they need a different strategy.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    Thank you John, I was wondering what industrial use was the main support for Silver, now I know.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    Just as a primer to readers who may not be familiar with such things (Buy and Hold people seldom use them), A "Stop" order has a "Trigger price" set below the current price which is meant to prevent losses from getting too big while no one is "minding the store" so to speak. By that I mean that you do not need to watch a stock, it kind of watches itself. If it falls past a pre-set point, a Sell order is entered.

    With a stop "Market" order, a Sell-at Market order is entered, so the stock sells at whatever the current "Offer" is if any. In a big crash, the sale can be very low.
    With a "Stop Limit" order, there is a trigger level, but also a Limit order entered, meaning that someone has to offer to buy your stock at least as high as you set your limit. In a "Flash Crash" like we saw a few years ago, there were few if any offers, the prices fell so fast that prices zipped below the Limit orders and they never filled, while the "At Market' orders filled as much as 50% or more down.
    While it would seem careless to enter a Stop Market order, there are many situations where a stock will open well below what even conservative Limits are set at, so your position just keeps losing money. A Market order guarantees a sell, but at likely a lower price than the Trigger point. Sometimes you know a stock is going to struggle for a long time, so you just want out.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    I'm not totally sure of the significance as regards the current price of silver; but I need to point out that the major industrial use for silver (that being Film Emulsion) has virtually completely dried up since 1980. Back then we were using multi-level reclamation methods for reclaiming silver out of "Fixer" as we were able to harvest thousands of dollars worth each year, both from old X-Rays and similar which were microfilmed after 7 years, as well as what we got from the fixer. We used first an electrolytic reclaimer which plated silver onto the anode, then a catalytic converter type filter to get the rest.
    When the Hunts were trying to corner the market, there was real fear that production of new silver could not meet the medical demand and that alone was enough to trigger the governments to raise the margin requirement in order to stop the Hunts. There was no other actual valid reason to raise the margin requirement, as silver was not like Tulip Bulbs-only worth what someone would pay you. By that I mean that, unlike the very volatile stocks that have special Margin Requirements, Silver at that time had a very real industrial consumption rate, and thus there was no danger that there was undue risk in lending against it like with Penny Stocks.
    Medical Imaging has largely gone digital since then, as the image quality of digital now equals the best film, the price of film is prohibitive (compared to Digital Storage), and that digital imaging requires less radiation exposure to the patient than film. Even if the radiation exposure per shot was equal, the cumulative exposure to patients would be less as digital methods have virtually totally eliminated the need for "Re-Takes".
    Even after the price had settled down post the Hunt Brother's affair, each X-Ray room used as much as $100k of film alone each year.
    My point is that it is my opinion that silver's value as an industrial metal is almost gone compared to even the 90's. If it were still in use in any quantity, Kodak would still be in business. So now silver, like gold, is an "Ornamental" metal with the value of it largely influenced by the Jewelry trade, (Quite large here in New Mexico for Indian Jewelry), but nowhere near what it was just 20 years ago. If anyone has comparative statistics, please post them. I would like to know.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117  [View instapost]
    Were they Stop Limit or Stop Market orders? A stop Limit will not trigger at a price below the "Limit", while a stop Market triggers at the offer. If his stop Limit orders cost him too much money, then he had his limits set too low. I occasionally use Trailing Stops when a stock hits it's Price Target early and I think it will run further, but I set my limit at a profitable level.
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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