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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    OAG
    While not a "Perma-Bull, I feel that there are almost always some stocks that can make you money being Long on. Look at FTNT last week, and after today, watch what happens to JAZZ this week.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I just this week watched a story about the 16 Sherpas that died last year on Everest. While the government of Nepal was collecting >4 Million in licenses to climb Everest, they offered to pay the families of the Sherpas only $400 each. The rest of the Sherpas went home, and no one climbed Everest last year. This year they had 318 people buy licenses, now right at the start of climbing season (April-May only), the Base camp got wiped out. As of tonight they are reporting 4 Americans killed in the avalanche. At least 17 died in the camp and over 4k killed around Nepal with many more missing or yet too rural to know of.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    When you sell because a stock dropped, all you did was lock in a loss. I prefer to lock in Gains.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I think you are likely not far off OAG
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    I've been both sick and busy. So much so that my latest bookmarked chapter was 111. It took me 20 min to catch up to this Blog.
    Well I was back on top in the Challenge for like 48 hours, then a dip and I'm first Loser again <sigh>
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 117 [View instapost]
    Crade
    The US Median income is around 50k. Saving 25k means living on the remaining 10k that you get after taxes.
    This is a typical B&H strategy that so many people love, and 6/19 of us in the Challenge have shown we can beat the DJIA and we are not investment professionals. This is the same strategy that, as Peter Way says, causes people to look into their inherited portfolio and find a stack of Kodak, old GM, Sears Etc.
    All this is assuming that you have 30 more years before you retire. I turn 65 in August, but retired at 46 because I refuse to B&H.
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @kimboslice
    Your observation that the market is an auction is exactly the reason that knowing the Market Maker sentiment works. At auction, something is only worth what another person is willing to pay for it.

    By analyzing the MM sentiment of what they are willing to pay to hedge a position, Peter can determine what the MMs are willing to pay for that position.

    Had similar paintings by that same artist sold in the immediate time frame around that auction, would not Sotheby's have had a better idea of the reserve to put on it? Peter shows you what people are willing to pay, and what they are likely to pay in the near future based upon similar past experiences.
    What you see above in figure 1 is Hard Data that can be tracked and the results tabulated.

    I reiterate what I said elsewhere. Why would one think that "Because we have always done it that way" is an acceptable answer ?
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    @Lbiasotto
    After re-reading my reply to you, I thought that I should spend a little more time talking about situations. When you talk about adding to a position and what to do surrounding that, I think it's important to make decisions based upon the size of the additional position, as well as the data revealed by the newest BTF. I based my answer upon an addition approaching equal sizes. Let's assume you have a position worth 5k and buy another ~5k, that should probably be viewed as a new position, and treated as such. That not only includes a new BTF, but also a new Time Target and likely a new Price Target. If however, you only add a couple k of stocks, then bookkeeping ease dictates that you maintain the original PT and TT.
    In any event, a new BTF is needed to help you decide the size and risk of the new capital. Even assuming a purchase of smaller size to the first position, one needs to look at the Price Target of the new position. If it is significantly different from the original, then again, it is probably best viewed as a new, separate position. Then too, you must consider your "Risk Tolerance". The new BTF will also tell you Risk-Reward information, which may well influence the size of the new position, as well as the PT and TT. I hope I did not confuse you more than I clarified; but very little in investing applies to all people and all conditions. Everyone's Risk Tolerance, Goals, and, of course, Portfolio is different, and must be taken on a case-by-case basis.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    @Lbiasotto
    The 63 days start from the BTF. and I always run BTFs before a buy. Even if it's 2 months later, I often look at the stocks from the list of stocks in the other tools, and if some look good I'll run it's BTF. If I like it, it starts from the last BTF as a new position. I keep each buy as independent. Others may work it differently, but I view each position as new, even if it's the same stock.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The Tools And Philosophy Of Blockdesk.com, Peter F. Way And His Usage Of Market Maker's Hedging Strategies [View instapost]
    The best indicator I have found is for a stock to stay favored (87% day 1 and 85% Minimum on subsequent days) for 2 or more consecutive days. More is often better.
    The analysis that I ran that supported this is another Blog at http://seekingalpha.co... .
    I am so convinced of the importance of that factor that I buy no stock that has not met that criteria. I hope that helps.
    I picked up a new list on the 10th, and one stock (RGR) already hit it's PT, with FTNT close behind. I should make a Watch List of the stocks in that list to see how the list in total does, the 2 I mentioned I only noticed because I had bought them. (FTNT hit on earnings today, and went up from it's close at $34.63 to $37.89 at the close of the "After Hours" session.)
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Long ETFs: Best Positioned 10 Of 30+ Now, As Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    @osolemio
    Thank you. I have been involved in Beta Testing blockdesk.com and am now a subscriber so I have >3 years of experience with Peter's work. If you have questions, do not hesitate to ask either in message, or by post in http://seekingalpha.co...

    Terry
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @ B&H
    I know I am unlikely to change your long held beliefs, but please take a moment to consider this.
    The fact is that what worked 50 years ago when Warren Buffet started is no longer "the only way to play". You don't use the same technology that you did 50 or even 20 years ago, why would you think that investing is the only thing in the world that has not changed either? Back then a Broker got ~10% on either end of a trade, so selling at less than a 20% gain was a loss.
    Today, brokerage commissions are an insignificant expense, while TIME is the most significant expense. Once spent, it can never be recovered like commissions and Fees. It is gone forever. As Peter explains so well in his FAQ, Capital in the investment formula is a constant, Gain is a variable; but Time is expressed as a"Power".
    You have Gain^Time in that formula.
    No I am not a Day Trader. I make about 5-8 trades per month depending on how quickly my stocks hit their Price Targets. I tried B&H and Blockdesk and make more now. I kept an open mind and tried both-will you dare?
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @Tony
    Despite your unabashed plug for your book, the idea here is not to minimize the impacts from Market Makers; but rather to take advantage of what their hedging reveals and use their activities to create wealth. Your methods are good DD material; but the MMs have far more data available than can be had by the retail investor. They not only have the fundamentals and technicals; but also the knowledge of what their very large customers are buying and selling and how that will move the Markets. When the big insurance companies and retirement funds want to move money, they turn to the Market Makers to get their orders filled with a minimum of movements of the stocks in the wrong direction.
    If you give this methodology a run around the block a time or 2, I think you might be surprised. I know I was.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    @rippoxl
    The MM analysis is a proprietary system that Blockdesk.com uses. They analyze the hedging activities of the Market Makers and from that data determine what the MMs think a stock is worth. Consider that the Market Makers must at times put their own capital at risk in order to provide liquidity to the very large clients who wish to move large blocks of stock. When they must put their own money at risk, they reach out to other MMs for what amounts to "Insurance" against large losses. They all pretty much have the research on stocks far above and beyond what the Retail investor has, but since they are all about equally informed, the prices that they charge each other to hedge their risk can reveal to Peter's methodology what they think stocks are worth in the short term. The hedge prices are published daily at a public Clearing House. I forgot the full name but Peter can tell you.
    In any event, a trip to Blockdesk.com 's FAQ should answer your questions far better than I. I have published a couple of Blogs that also discuss the Tools there in detail. They are at http://seekingalpha.co... , http://seekingalpha.co... and http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Long ETFs: Best Positioned 10 Of 30+ Now, As Seen By Market-Makers [View article]
    While the stocks are ranked according to the weighting by odds as appears in column 15, the top stock is not always the best buy.
    Column 15 weights the Risk-Reward by the Odds and days held; but one also has to look at the Days Held compared to the STP in column 5 to get the AROR.

    In the above chart, FAS has an AROR of 110% with 85% Odds, while CURE has an AROR of 148% with odds of 97%. What happened there is the effect of a very high number of prior similar experiences in column 12 for FAS (which skews the Weighting upwards), while CURE is equally skewed by a history of hitting it's PT in only 12 days (Column 10). Both of these last 2 statistics can mislead. By this I mean that FAS fails to meet the usual 7/8 (87%) Odds that Peter often talks of, while CURE's 97% historical hit rate in 12 days only has a total # of days on the Market of 408-Well below the 3 years or 756 Prior days at Market that is also often mentioned by Peter. Does this support a prediction of only 12 days held in the future? I am a bit skeptical.
    What I want to see is a fair number of prior similar experiences, a reasonable average Days Held, a R/R ~1.5 or better, and a Credibility Ratio of .9 at the very least. While 87% is a common cutoff point, I have shown in my Blog at http://seekingalpha.co... that there is a definite advantage to a stock remaining in the 85% or more range for multiple consecutive days. Consistant performance is highly desireable.
    It is far too soon to make any good judgement of the subsequent performance of either of those 2 stocks, I merely wanted to point out possible pitfalls to avoid.
    As of Friday's statistics, UDOW, TECL, and ROM have become more favorable, while almost all the rest need further study IMO.
    Apr 19, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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