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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    Sounds to me by what he was carrying that he also has links to those Ultra-Pythagorean Trigo-Gnomes.

    Surely the Atty General will eventually find the angle.
    Nov 14, 2014. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Possible Advantages Of Market Maker's Opinions Extended Favorable Views Of Stocks Over Single Day Favorable Views [View instapost]
    I actually updated this blog with my conclusion at the end of September; but I failed to make a post here about it. My Bad. In fact, looking at what I posted as my conclusion, I need to make it more specific on the increase in profitability. I posted some numbers, but left a lot of math to the reader which needs fixing. I'll try to post more specific numbers here as soon as I have the time. (see below about my distractions).
    Yes I am still using Lists from BlockDesk.com. My latest research has not been very productive as I have been trying to use the Cred Ratio in some form to weight the Odds. The CR is very useful, but I have not yet found a way to weight the Odds with it in a way that yields significantly more reliability.
    What I just said may sound confusing; but if you notice, my research on making sure a stock stayed in the favorable range for more than 1 day made a significant improvement in getting favorable results.
    Weighting the Odds by the CR has made nowhere near the reliability that this analysis did so I was still trying differing formulas. In other words, Peter's way of sorting each day's table is superior to anything I have/can come up with.
    Using the data I acquired during my "Analysis" here, I am not finding a superior way to sort the data as yet (and am unlikely to). For that reason, I am looking at a new project.

    My next research project is not yet ready to post about, but if/when I have something, I'll make a post here with a link.

    Trying new ideas is also slowed right now as I am also spending a lot of time taking care of my wife (She had a stroke last summer). She is recovering quite a bit, but it has really caused a lifestyle change. I can no longer pull "All Nighters" on data and sleep all the next day.

    Thank you for reminding me to post here as well when I do updates so that people are alerted that I have done something. I'll try to do that number crunching asap.
    Nov 14, 2014. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 5 [View instapost]
    Commissions yes. I had not spent enough up to that point to be in Margin(~$70558 on the 6th), so that is excluded, as well as Dividends, which are too low on most to be significant. The margin costs subsequently incurred are also comparatively low being ~.7%/month or <$667/month if I had used all 100k (which I never did). I cannot see where they bill me for those, but will look and see if I can figure it.
    Nov 7, 2014. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 5 [View instapost]
    I did better the next week, netting 7303.70
    08/11/14 JAZZ 133.5 100 13358.9 08/13/14 158.04 15804 2,445.10
    08/11/14 IPXL 23.56 600 14144.9 08/13/14 27.89 16734 2,589.10
    08/11/14 ARII 74.07 200 14822.9 08/15/14 80.96 16192 1,369.10
    08/12/14 NFLX 450.98 30 13538.3 08/31/14 481.29 14438.7 900.40
    The losses I showed during Sept and Oct were mostly paper losses, and those stocks rebounded. I still hold most bought in Sept, but a few have hit their Price Targets.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 5 [View instapost]
    Rebalancing as my purchases of 8/7 have hit their 63 Market days expiration.
    From my 8/6 buys, I made 2935.42
    BUY DATE TKR Cost/Share Shares Cost wComm Sell Date Price/share Proceeds Profit/(Loss)
    08/06/14 DXPE 76.72 132 10135.94 11/07/14 64.88 8564.16 -1,571.78
    08/06/14 IWP 87.27 115 10044.95 11/07/14 91.75 10551.25 506.30
    08/06/14 JAZZ 144.9 100 14498.9 08/13/14 158.04 15804 1,305.10
    08/06/14 SEMG 77.94 100 7802.9 08/11/14 86.29 8629 826.10
    08/06/14 BWEN 8.86 1100 9754.9 08/20/14 9.07 9977 222.10
    08/06/14 MDSO 45.09 200 9026.9 11/07/14 43.78 8756 -270.90
    08/06/14 RGA 80.73 125 10100.15 08/13/14 84.73 10591.25 491.10
    08/06/14 TRGP 132.23 75 9926.15 08/13/14 136.23 10217.25 291.10
    08/06/14 COF 78.85 150 11836.4 08/13/14 84.3 12645 808.60
    08/06/14 CHD 66.6 100 6668.9 09/17/14 69.97 6997 328.10
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    Should I be saving these Musings into like a Book or something???
    Oct 20, 2014. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    I never said that we were liked in the Middle East. In fact, we have absolutely no reason to be liked there.
    Your choice to live in NY reflects a decision to give up certain things available elsewhere in order to avail yourself of things you desire. When I lived in Iowa, you could buy rifle ammo at any gas station, Qwikie Mart etc; but heaven help you if you wanted a good Reuben Sandwich. I frequently bought shotgun ammo at the "Casey's General Store" on my way out to pop a few pheasants. We all live with tradeoffs.
    What I am saying is that the Muslim Religion is not the great Evil. It is the distorted message that people who cannot or will not read from the Koran that is being played in the ears of the gullible that brings this Goerbbles-like propaganda spewing forth and enslaves those who will not think for themselves. Listen to Al Jazeera America and you will hear the concern among the Moderate Muslims that USIL is giving the entire Muslim world a reputation for insanity from which they may not recover for centuries.

    USIL is promising a Utopia to the poorest of the poor in Sudan and similar places, while delivering only horror once the recruits arrive. Many teenagers from the West are also attracted because they are bullied, or feel alienated from their peers just as the Hippies of my generation did. Once there though, the disillusioned are unable to leave this cult of madness, as their own countries (Even Great Brittan and France) will not allow them back. Trapped, they feel their only way out is death or some far off unknown vision of victory, which they dare not even imagine what it will look like.
    The only way USIL (ISIS) can be stopped is by the Muslim world itself. It can only be broken from within, as it is only strengthened by attacks from it's enemies. Such is the success of it's message and propaganda.
    Oct 20, 2014. 09:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next MoMo Stock, Part 1: Understanding The Momentum Mechanism [View article]
    What Athena was actually apparently doing was keep dipping from the well continuously for some 6 months daily in order to test NASDQ's ability and desire to stop such practices. What they discovered was that there was virtually no will to enforce the rules, and only when the practice became so egregious over such an extended period were they forced to act. This now sets a standard for other firms that they can take their turns at the feeding trough for (probably) assigned periods, knowing that only the most blatant offenders will ever get pursued (and if fined, the fine will be so miniscule as to be an acceptable cost of business).

    The thing is that retail investors rarely, if ever, place "at close" trades. Those trades are done by the Mutual Funds. The Mutual Fund investor gets hosed, but then, Mutual Fund investors are looked down upon by the rest of the investment community as professional victims, so little attention is given to their problems.

    Those Mutual Fund strategists who actually try to be successful actually, largely, have the HFT tools to play against such players as Athena when they choose to.
    It appears to me as if the pie (so to speak) has already been pretty well divided, and by and large, each player knows his place and takes whatever money they are allowed by their peers. Do I sound overly cynical???
    Oct 20, 2014. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 84....... [View instapost]
    OAG
    You refer to the inflation of the 70's and early 80s as a result of the ending of the Gold Standard, while it was universally accepted as the result of the Oil Embargo and resultant energy crisis. Just because 2 events hapen does not mean that the following event was caused by the preceding event.
    What is happening in the world of finance right now is a balancing of needs. Certainly in any balance, there can be temporary imbalances; but there appears no other way to maintain any stability at this time.
    While reducing taxes always sounds like a great idea, many such tax reductions have turned out to have far reaching counterproductive effects, such as the failed "trickle down theory". Granted, the US corporate tax is out of balance with the rest of the world in general and must be adjusted, in order for the government to provide it's necessary functions, there must be payment.
    The amount of money required to provide for the NIH is a perfect example. When there is no crisis, the axe falls, but when these pesky diseases pop up, everyone screams "WHY WERE YOU NOT PREPARED TO PROTECT US!" to the government.
    We cannot have our freedoms without paying for them in some manner. I paid with my ability to walk. Thankfully, most others have a far smaller bill, but when I see the sales tax added at the end of the tape, I know how much more our freedoms actually cost.
    Oct 20, 2014. 08:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 5 [View instapost]
    With their usual foresight, Cabot Advisers (Stock of the Month) announced today that we will have a correction in the Market!
    An I actually paid these guys about $150 for 2 years of such timely advice on a whim about 18 months ago. Gee these guys are GOOD!!!

    DOH!!!!!!!!!
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    The man has no medical training or experience-it's just a political plum position.
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    Crade
    When it comes to long levered ETFs, the risk is easily calculated relative to non-levered. You first subtract the cost of borrowing (rather small in this environment) then multiply the movements by the leverage. By that I mean that a 2x levered ETF usually moves ~2x the % of a non-levered one. The reward should be 2x the %, as is the risk. Thus the risk/reward is equal. If you have a more predictable market, you can better assess the returns. When a market is as unpredictable as the present one, the results are equally unpredictable.
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 83....... [View instapost]
    First; Eboo Patel is from India, not the Middle East.

    Next;
    I do not fear a person because of his/her name, or even religion; but only his/her actions. If you have any evidence of misdeeds by these people, please present it.
    (Skip the litany against BHO because if there was any substantive evidence of anything beyond differing philosophy, the Opposition Party would be bringing charges in the House (which they control)).

    Anyone who actually has read up on the Muslim Religion knows that it is not a religion of hate and murder. In itself, it is no more hostile to other religions than Christianity is. In any event, looking at the history of "The Church", Christians should not throw stones. The Inquisition is as much an example of people using their religion as an excuse for murder as any Jihad. A few of you out there are even old enough to remember the murder of Lord Mountbatten by the IRA, and the religious wars in Ireland since WW2. Should we then impeach Catholics? Protestants?

    When the above Texan kills a ratsnake when mistaking it for a rattlesnake, is he not behaving like a religious fanatic in killing because he "perceived" a threat when there was none? I am of course not implying that the murder of a reptile should be punished equal to that of a human, but the principle is the same. One may justifiably eliminate a true threat; but only after establishing that the threat is real.

    The fact is that I personally have killed humans without true justification (they had the misfortune of being in a "Free Fire Zone"), and that fact haunts me more than any of the other traumas that I experienced. Anyone who can kill without justification and not regret it has lost their humanity.
    Quite simply, they are as much a threat to their friends as their enemies.
    (I will kindly skip the expected rant about allowing rattlesnakes to live as they are as beneficial as they are harmful-I'll do that upon request)

    IT - You will inevitably have to deal with Muslims in positions of power in the US, as they are as much entitled to hold office in the US as any other person. Get over it and get over yourself as being the final arbiter of right and wrong. It ain't so. I personally welcome moderates of any religion or no religion to have a voice. It is the Radicals that I mistrust and even fear-They are our biggest threat.

    I will sleep as well tonight as any night, knowing that this country will continue to change with or without me; with or without my opinion.
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! THE CHALLENGE ,PART 5 [View instapost]
    My IPXL hit it's Price Target and sold. It seems that it was my only stock still in thee green. In any event, I am calling a bottom between now and Nov 1. The reason is a rebound forming in the Russel 2k

    This is assuming that no more Ebola patients get into the US. There are 2 nurses sick as of this writing, I pray for them and that no more of those workers that cared for the guy who died get ill.
    Did you see the Video of them transferring the latest nurse to Atlanta? There were a number of people in HazMat suits, and some idiot with a clipboard unsuited as they walked her onto the Plane. UNBELIEVABLE.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 82....... [View instapost]
    There is no legal way to beat T-Bills and yet guarantee no loss. Block his number and move on!
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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