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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    It's only a 30 day Target. I'm 60 days into my holding. That's still ~10% gain if it hits it. Not a huge % chance it will at this point. You never know though, the ANAC that I bought 6/1 at $71.05 hit my $79.77 PT today. I sold at that price, but it topped today at $81.43.

    If I had been at my computer, I might have held out for a bit more and then watched it fall to it's ~$79.05 latest price (I didn't look at close, this is an after-hours quote.
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    @ceristeare

    While Buy and Hold investors dislike such moves as BABA makes, for us near term traders, volatility is our friend. I will look into it deeper as one of the potential positions in the next Challenge (as well as some possible RLP investing).
    Since Blockdesk will not have enough prior history on BABA to make certainty inferences, I'll have to do some spreadsheet work on it.
    Jun 24, 2015. 05:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    That settles it, I'll be heading North into Wyoming tonight with hopes of a great show.

    Thanks.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 125... [View instapost]
    Crade

    I posted my Sell rules in Ch 123 earlier today as a response to another question you posted. If you want me to post them again here, I will.
    There are IMO, 2 types of Sell Rules. 1 is based upon what I think a stock may do, and the other, larger and more important one is my "Total Risk Tolerance".
    While I do not like to lock in losses, still one needs to establish a Risk Tolerance. The way I use is to decide how long it will take me to replace lost capital via my various income sources.

    I never invest without a Time Target, even if it may be > 2 years. Investments for that long a time requires DD=>at least ~5% of the time that it would take me to earn my Risk Tolerance back.
    Here is an example of that:
    If I decide that I can afford to lose $2000 on an investment, and if it takes me 2 weeks (80 hours) to replace that much in Income-Fixed Expenses, then 5% of 80 hours = 4 hours of DD. I began using that rule some 35 years ago. I no longer work, but I use the 40 hour week basis for calculation purposes

    As for Buy rules, I always make certain a stock stays favored for a given amount of time, regardless of what criteria I use. If using BlockDesk Criteria, 2 days favorable is my minimum, 3 is better. If using another source, the time favorable before I buy depends upon my Time Target. If my TT is, for instance, a year, then the stock must meet my DD expectations for at least ~2 weeks. Longer than that only requires periodic DD updates.

    @IT

    I tried the rule you used except that instead of 10/10%, I used 8%. What I found was that at that level, I was selling far too early and locking in losses more often than gains. Maybe 10% is better, but I think that the better pattern of that type would be using Bollinger Bands. When I use them for longer term investing than Blockdesk trading, I use Bollinger 100-10-10. I buy only when a stock has bounced off the bottom band for a few days, and try to sell if the stock has passed through the top band (or as near as my Time Target allows).

    If all this sounds complicated, then you will understand why I simplified my life by using the Market Makers to do most of my DD. By knowing what they expect of a stock, I can do quite well, as you can see in the Challenge. From August until the end of 2014, I began doing well at first, then wandered off into 3x Levered ETFs and some other unwise investments. Afte Jan 1, I stuck strictly to what I should have, and went from breakeven to the near 20% I am up since then.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    BTW Al, my target for ECOL is 54.02. Bought at 47.93
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    @Crade

    That's the beauty of setting Time targets as well as Price targets when you buy. What is the expectation for a stock. How long will I wait for it to start performing?

    When you set these types of targets up when you buy a stock, that is when you enter the realm of Disciplined Investing, rather than emotion driven investment.
    If you fall in love with either a sector, type of stock (such as ETF or Dividend ), or an individual entity; then you are setting yourself up for failure.
    The one thing I do not get rigid about is in setting a "Loss Target" such as the idea of "I will sell if it falls >10%" or the like. While I try to get an idea of what risk I can tolerate, I try not to lock in losses unless a stock has hit it's Time Target and at that time I re-depoy my capital into more attractive investments.
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    For some reason the IT Challenge page is no longer Ranking me or showing my rank. I'm at 19.2%
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 124... [View instapost]
    Monday is "Hangover Day" (not to be compared to "Passover") as I always stay up too late Sunday night watching all the races I recorded during the day <g>.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    Yeah, I liked ECOL enough to put some in my RLP. STZ is a better performer right now, but it's not on my new buy list, just holding atm.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    Ok Sorry to be slow responding, but these are stocks that have shown a couple of days of optimistic Market Maker opinions. They are not the highest rated, but are more consistent than most others as of today.
    AKRX UDOW DRN BC B SPB AALN ECOL REGN SAVE JAZZ GWRE FBHS.
    I put JAZZ in to show off how you can make money in a stock that at a glance, has not had any significant movement since it broke 170 last September.
    The devil is in the volatility.
    JAZZ is a perfect example of how one can make money in a stagnant market. The net has been sideways, but there have been a number of buying opportunities to be exploited.

    There have been many trade-able moments since September for the active investor, as it has traded between 145 and 190 during that time; but if it had been in a "Buy and Hold" portfolio, it would not look great as it is only up to ~180 now. If you look at it's chart, you can see the range that has made me a lot of money. It is volatile, and for that reason following MM Recs, I have gotten in and out like 4 times for ~55% annualized gain.

    ECOL is the only other stock on this list that I have currently in the Challenge, bought at 47.93 and holding for ~10% expected gain within my 3 month max holding period.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    I should have some potentially profitable symbols in a couple days Al. When I test stocks, they need to stay in range for at least 2 consecutive days before I buy. Assuming that I get my price for my T-Bird, I'll have some new money to invest. Only asking ~$15K for it. The restoration is like 98% complete, but my wife can't drive a car with all the horsepower that I built into it since her stroke. Her right foot is not as precise as it was before.
    Jun 15, 2015. 04:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 122 [View instapost]
    They came from "Humor and Word Play".
    If a person wants to find examples of fraud and malfeasance, certainly there will always be plenty, yet still somehow most of these services are still provided. Roads get repaired and yes even widened. There are pheasants in the fields and fish in the city lake. Yes, even medicare sends payments to my wife's Doctor and the VA has the X-Ray machine that finds my bowel obstruction.
    If you want to reduce the bad government, you can always get involved and change the laws. It DOES happen-Look at what MADD has done for DUI laws.
    If you look for bad you will find bad. If you look for good, you can find that as well. Sometimes you just have to look a bit harder.
    Jun 15, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 123.... [View instapost]
    I'll work the Prop Desk <g>. I still like the rewards of disciplined Price and Time Targets, Max 3 month hold. Also experimenting with a 31 Market Day target system as a % of the 90 day target. For instance, if the 63 Market Day target is x%, the 31 Market Day target might be between 50 and 75% of that. It's going to take a lot of work to smooth the edges and find where the best statistics land though.
    Jun 14, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 122 [View instapost]
    "If you think about it, supplements are just refined foods, like white flour and white sugar. "
    Except that many contain contaminants, if not flat out poisons. In my 25 years in medicine, I saw so many cases of destroyed livers and kidneys from the use and abuse of non-FDA approved items that I would not even take vitamin pills that do not meet federal standards of labeling and packaging. I almost lost a sister to some herbals out of Mexico a few years ago.

    USE THESE WITH EXTREME CAUTION and SKEPTICISM!
    Jun 14, 2015. 07:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments !! Chapter 122 [View instapost]
    "(this has not worked with me for ribs of any type or brisket)."
    Make smoked Jerky with the brisket. No reheating necessary. Smoked fish is also a favorite preserved food.
    Jun 14, 2015. 07:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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