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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
    Finally someone who "Gets It" about NOK.
    When the board dropped the Dividend, so many sellers hit the street Thursday AM that at least 10 million shares were sold in the first 30 min. The revenue "miss" was bogus as so much was reorganization change. The real story was that NOK had turned a profit for the first time in years-meaning that the re-org was taking effect. This little drop is only a buy opportunity for those who want to hang around for a year.
    The only real downside is the "Supply Issue". I'll buy it this Q, but it best be solved by next Q to keep me from thinking NOK is suffering mismanagement.
    Jan 27 06:03 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumia Lifts Nokia Back To The Black [View article]
    The bottom line here is being missed. The subject has been hijacked by people who want to (or don't want to) buy a Smartphone. The question is whether the 920 will be profitable enough to "turn Nokia around"? Whether or not I buy a smartphone is irrelevant.
    OK Nokia is not just the 920, but has many parts which are now all profitable, so the easy answer is. "Nokia has already turned around".
    Whether Nokia sells enough 920's to make that division profitable again each Q depends first on whether Nokia can solve Supply Issues. Clearly by looking at reported demand, there is a lot more demand for the 920 than there has been supply. The exact numbers are irrelevant until Nokia 920 supplies meet demand. Only then will we know what the demand really is.
    http://amzn.to/WGzZ4G
    This is Amazon's best seller list for phones with Plan. When I posted it, The 920 was in position 1,3, 12, 17. Depending on Color.
    It updates hourly. For a long time in December, they listed the 920 as "Out of Stock" so we know they could have sold more, but we'll never know how many more. If you look at "Top Rated Phones", Nokia 920 is the top 3 again by color.
    Lost my link to Amazon China Phones, maybe someone will be kind enough to link it.
    Sadly, I cannot find my link also that showed an approximate profit of $243 / 920 sold. Maybe I can find that one, but that is the latest number that I have seen. I'll accept it as reasonable as it places a 30-40% profit range on a Premier Phone. If you have different numbers at hand, please post.
    So now I am seeing that the supply issue is being addressed, The phone is in demand, the company as a whole is profitable, NSN is especially profitable with nearly 70 contracts worldwide. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Toyota is switching from Google Maps to Here. http://bit.ly/TgmviX
    and the only thing hanging over Nokia's head is "Rumors" of tax problems in India, but not 1 official has gone public about the tax issues, only "Anonymous" IT officials. http://yhoo.it/WZapc1
    IMO this is a last gasp attempt by shorts getting squeezed. The source of the rumors seems to be a site hostile to Nokia according to comments on the referenced site.
    I may have missed my chance to add another bottom position to my NOK long yesterday, but I already have 2x my normal Tech Allocation in NOK alone, and this after already taking enough profits on the way up to have paid for half of my position as it is.
    So my answers are as follows, Yes there is demand for the 920, yes the 920 is profitable enough to help Nokia as a whole, and yes there is an increasing supply of the 920.
    Conclusion. Nokia will continue to be profitable. It is not necessary for Nokia to outsell Apple or Samsung to be profitable, Nokia already is.The 920 continues to be the top rated phone according to the largest retailer that I can access.
    IMO BUY, but do your own DD
    PS for those who say the US market is the indicator, compare AAPL who specializes in the US market with Samsung, who is worldwide, and Nokia likewise. AAPL down ~35-40% NOK up >200% in the last 6 months. In any event, I do not buy a company that I love, I buy a stock with potential. I am long NOK with a 12 month PT of 7-8 optimistically. 5-6 at worst. Just My PT I am not an investment advisor, my advice is worth what you paid for it.
    Feb 1 08:19 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    IMO the vote is already in, Apple has viable competition and will have to come up with some new game changer in order to command premium prices. With the BB10, there will be at least 5 players making phones that are quite acceptable. To compete, AAPL must either be better, or as cheap. They may well be better in some respects, but are they enough better to command premium prices?
    We'll know by mid 2013 how people decide. One thing is certain, Apple will not be able to strongarm providers into the huge subsidies they are used to. The proof is China Mobile.
    Apple has had 2 quarters now of declining earnings. Good earnings, but if we see next Q below $7, you'll know.
    Dec 9 12:36 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    When a company is structured like this, then talks about "Non-GAAP" report (in which they can move items around like chesspieces and hide mistakes), I just want to scream "What about GAAP???"
    Non-gaap is a liars game and when you have some kind of protection against takeover I won't touch it until I see GAAP profits.
    Apr 18 09:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia's Platform Transition Pay Off? [View article]
    First off, I did some serious research and discovered that the Ultra sensitive Touch screen was the "Supply Chain" Blockage, but I could not find out who was making it. I was certain it wasn't Sharp as they have seemingly become so Apple-Dependent after their near-Demise. This is the first article that suggested Samsung, and now it makes sense. Samsung is not motivated to boost production on a phone that many believe is better than anything Samsung has to offer. With Apple cutting back orders, it makes sense for Sharp to throw lines at Nokia. One of Nokia's big selling points was showing someone using the Touchscreen with gloves on-Something no one else apparently has, and as such, there are few companies capable of making it. If, as you suggest, Sharp does produce the screen, that should be the end of the Shortages and we will finally find out what the real demand for Top-End Nokia phones are.
    Thank you for that tidbit. Makes me want to go buy some Sharp as well now. (maybe toe-touch some options)
    Feb 19 10:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Nokia [View article]
    Do NOT underestimate the importance of HERE to Nokia. Apple made the mistake of releasing an inferior mapping service and that was one of the main catalysts to their downfall, Smartphone users need their Maps, and with the data coming in from all those cars, plus the phone data, HERE will get better all the time. HERE will soon show monetization by selling location based advertising. Assume you are standing in front of a "GAP" store in a Mall. You look at your phone, hit the app, and up pops whatever specials that "GAP" is running, and maybe electronic coupons. Even Apple had to go back to Google, hat in hand, and beg forgiveness for going astray. I actually expect HERE apps for iPhones as the VP in charge of HERE stated that they are making it OS independent. If Nokia sells HERE, they had better get a free license.
    Apr 26 03:21 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
    Clue, I do NOT live for your approval docklc, nor your vote.

    I was born and raised in Kansas, you do not get any more "American English" speaking than that, and back in the 50's and early 60's, you do not get through school without learning to spell. Still, I often spelled Lumia as Lumina, as it appears in the English language as Luminescent, Luminous and several other scientific variants.
    I also learned Vietnamese, French and Spanish, and do not remember docklc as being a word in any. Perhaps you could enlighten us as to what language you got it from?
    Jan 27 08:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Cash Position Explained [View article]
    I am still skeptical that NSN will be spun off. Infrastructure is as important to mobile phone sales as Carriers. There is a synergy there that should help both prosper IMO.
    Aug 31 12:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest In Nokia Falls Sharply [View article]
    All in all, it is hard to make money shorting a $3.3 stock to begin with. In many cases, Brokers begin charging progressively more by number of contracts, such as for stocks under $5, some brokers charge a fee for every 5 or 10 contracts. This takes the retail investor out of the Options, and (Like was stated) the major players are not seeing many more "Cash Burn" items. Despite a small loss Q1, $NOK added to their net cash position. Not a lot, but it beats cash declines.
    Long Nokia, and may go longer if they start meeting the potential increase in demand that a Verizon release could generate. Who knows, maybe we'll even start seeing some Nokia Ads through Verizon.
    May 3 09:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intel Is So Tough To Own [View article]
    @milkchaser
    Exactly. INTC didn't bother with the $20-$40 chips when they were selling the $200-$600 chips to Server farms @ ~50% margins until it's stock started getting hit, and it got bad press, for letting ARM play. By late 2013 or early 2014, Intel will be selling 7Watt Atom 22nm or 28 nm, while readying 14nm chips for late 2014. No one else in the WORLD can match that. I have friends at the local Intel Factory that are talking 9nm chips in a few years.
    Jan 27 07:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Lumia Phones Does Nokia Need To Sell? [View article]
    OK, so with all your fancy math, NOK sold 4.4 M Lumias and beat estimates by making a profit of 8 cents vs est of 5-6 cent loss. If they were profitable at this level, why not once they have a full Q of sales?
    Item 2. You have no evidence either way, so you decide it must be wrong-Why? Item 3 Nokia has no "Smart Devices Division" so that makes both 3 and 5 relevant.
    Essentially you are like so many "Analysts" that discount any evidence that is contrary to their conclusion as "Irrelevant"
    That is why every Analyst has been wrong on both Apple and Nokia for the last 6 months or so.
    Sry I clicked on this and sent you a penny.
    Jan 25 10:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elop The Magnificent Makes Nokia's Dividend Disappear [View article]
    I am happy to give up a 4% or even8% dividend for a 200% Share price gain. You don't give away all your cash when you are trying to rebuild, you give it away when you have $137 Billion doing nothing while your stock slides 40%
    Jan 25 09:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Beaten Down Stock Finally Gets Some Asha [View article]
    Little late to the Party are we?
    I have been buying NOK since 2.7. After opening higher today, the bears pushed hard to bring it down, but it still settled for~4.2 for the second day in a row. I raised my personal PT to over 5.5 short term (My Own, I'm no analyst) with tight stops over 4.4-4.6 on a possible consolidation after it hits about 250% from it's lows. That too depends on what day it finds that as Friday there will likely be some Short Squeeze, if not tomorrow. What I spotted was money coming out of Apple for whatever reason, and figured Tech would get some loving with that money. People who have a certain amount dedicated to Tech have to find another Tech area. Rimm is riding up on NOK's back. Rimm buyers will likely sell out around the BB10 release IMO to get back into Apple. STX and WDC looked good, Intel not bad with the Dividend, but with no insider buying except for holding some awarded shares, that scared me off. SWKS, while not dependent on Apple, fell with Apple as one of it's suppliers. Anyone wanting to get out of NOK should consider SWKS once Apple rebounds IMO. Meantime, almost everyone is using SWKS products atm, so it has it's own strength. On an Apple turnaround, I will likely ride SWKS up. OVTI has been taken down with Apple for no good reason since it sells to everyone, but it's 44+ PE scares me a bit.
    Back to NOK. IMO a valuation of 5.5 - 6 is my top short term target (3 months or less) with a likely consolidation along the way. It has gone almost straight up from 2,7 to 4.2 without a breather, so there may be some buying dips. I'll likely use any dips under a 50 day SMA. (currently around 3.85) as a buy.
    That said, it always scares me a bit when writers start buffing a stock. Often a sell signal absent other indicators. NOK has enough other upside indicators to reach 5 when Institutions can buy. If they do, I'll ride a small position up as far as it goes.
    Dec 19 08:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    IMO Obama should never have interjected himself into the conversation from the start by talking about some "Line to not cross"; but should have told the Arab World to clean up their own messes. This goes back to Bosnia when the Serbs were killing Muslims and the Arab World ignored it. Too late now though, Obama has to at least make a show of strength. My hope is that, like the UK, action will be blocked by congress giving Obama an "out".
    As a Viet Nam Veteran, I've seen the mud, the blood and the tears that pictures on TV only glorify. On TV you can't smell the blood, nor see the face of the enemy as he is killed, nor the life fade from your friend.s face. There is no glory in War, only death and destruction.
    Sep 4 12:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: A Turnaround With Solid Growth Prospects [View article]
    Such an important analysis is worthy of publication in far more important places than SA. I don't know about Author Contract details, but this could be submitted to technical publications with very few changes IMO. I saw much less researched pieces in many Medical Journals while in the Medical Field. I am certainly going to cut/paste this into PDF for future reference.
    It will be great to revisit this in a year to see how things play out.
    Congrats again. This is going to be a tough act for you to follow, but I'll be here with honest opinions (up or down).
    Thank you
    Jul 19 12:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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