Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
Finally someone who "Gets It" about NOK. When the board dropped the Dividend, so many sellers hit the street Thursday AM that at least 10 million shares were sold in the first 30 min. The revenue "miss" was bogus as so much was reorganization change. The real story was that NOK had turned a profit for the first time in years-meaning that the re-org was taking effect. This little drop is only a buy opportunity for those who want to hang around for a year. The only real downside is the "Supply Issue". I'll buy it this Q, but it best be solved by next Q to keep me from thinking NOK is suffering mismanagement.
Lumia Lifts Nokia Back To The Black [View article]
The bottom line here is being missed. The subject has been hijacked by people who want to (or don't want to) buy a Smartphone. The question is whether the 920 will be profitable enough to "turn Nokia around"? Whether or not I buy a smartphone is irrelevant. OK Nokia is not just the 920, but has many parts which are now all profitable, so the easy answer is. "Nokia has already turned around". Whether Nokia sells enough 920's to make that division profitable again each Q depends first on whether Nokia can solve Supply Issues. Clearly by looking at reported demand, there is a lot more demand for the 920 than there has been supply. The exact numbers are irrelevant until Nokia 920 supplies meet demand. Only then will we know what the demand really is. http://amzn.to/WGzZ4G This is Amazon's best seller list for phones with Plan. When I posted it, The 920 was in position 1,3, 12, 17. Depending on Color. It updates hourly. For a long time in December, they listed the 920 as "Out of Stock" so we know they could have sold more, but we'll never know how many more. If you look at "Top Rated Phones", Nokia 920 is the top 3 again by color. Lost my link to Amazon China Phones, maybe someone will be kind enough to link it. Sadly, I cannot find my link also that showed an approximate profit of $243 / 920 sold. Maybe I can find that one, but that is the latest number that I have seen. I'll accept it as reasonable as it places a 30-40% profit range on a Premier Phone. If you have different numbers at hand, please post. So now I am seeing that the supply issue is being addressed, The phone is in demand, the company as a whole is profitable, NSN is especially profitable with nearly 70 contracts worldwide. http://seekingalpha.co... Toyota is switching from Google Maps to Here. http://bit.ly/TgmviX and the only thing hanging over Nokia's head is "Rumors" of tax problems in India, but not 1 official has gone public about the tax issues, only "Anonymous" IT officials. http://yhoo.it/WZapc1 IMO this is a last gasp attempt by shorts getting squeezed. The source of the rumors seems to be a site hostile to Nokia according to comments on the referenced site. I may have missed my chance to add another bottom position to my NOK long yesterday, but I already have 2x my normal Tech Allocation in NOK alone, and this after already taking enough profits on the way up to have paid for half of my position as it is. So my answers are as follows, Yes there is demand for the 920, yes the 920 is profitable enough to help Nokia as a whole, and yes there is an increasing supply of the 920. Conclusion. Nokia will continue to be profitable. It is not necessary for Nokia to outsell Apple or Samsung to be profitable, Nokia already is.The 920 continues to be the top rated phone according to the largest retailer that I can access. IMO BUY, but do your own DD PS for those who say the US market is the indicator, compare AAPL who specializes in the US market with Samsung, who is worldwide, and Nokia likewise. AAPL down ~35-40% NOK up >200% in the last 6 months. In any event, I do not buy a company that I love, I buy a stock with potential. I am long NOK with a 12 month PT of 7-8 optimistically. 5-6 at worst. Just My PT I am not an investment advisor, my advice is worth what you paid for it.
IMO the vote is already in, Apple has viable competition and will have to come up with some new game changer in order to command premium prices. With the BB10, there will be at least 5 players making phones that are quite acceptable. To compete, AAPL must either be better, or as cheap. They may well be better in some respects, but are they enough better to command premium prices? We'll know by mid 2013 how people decide. One thing is certain, Apple will not be able to strongarm providers into the huge subsidies they are used to. The proof is China Mobile. Apple has had 2 quarters now of declining earnings. Good earnings, but if we see next Q below $7, you'll know.
Will Nokia's Platform Transition Pay Off? [View article]
First off, I did some serious research and discovered that the Ultra sensitive Touch screen was the "Supply Chain" Blockage, but I could not find out who was making it. I was certain it wasn't Sharp as they have seemingly become so Apple-Dependent after their near-Demise. This is the first article that suggested Samsung, and now it makes sense. Samsung is not motivated to boost production on a phone that many believe is better than anything Samsung has to offer. With Apple cutting back orders, it makes sense for Sharp to throw lines at Nokia. One of Nokia's big selling points was showing someone using the Touchscreen with gloves on-Something no one else apparently has, and as such, there are few companies capable of making it. If, as you suggest, Sharp does produce the screen, that should be the end of the Shortages and we will finally find out what the real demand for Top-End Nokia phones are. Thank you for that tidbit. Makes me want to go buy some Sharp as well now. (maybe toe-touch some options)
Do NOT underestimate the importance of HERE to Nokia. Apple made the mistake of releasing an inferior mapping service and that was one of the main catalysts to their downfall, Smartphone users need their Maps, and with the data coming in from all those cars, plus the phone data, HERE will get better all the time. HERE will soon show monetization by selling location based advertising. Assume you are standing in front of a "GAP" store in a Mall. You look at your phone, hit the app, and up pops whatever specials that "GAP" is running, and maybe electronic coupons. Even Apple had to go back to Google, hat in hand, and beg forgiveness for going astray. I actually expect HERE apps for iPhones as the VP in charge of HERE stated that they are making it OS independent. If Nokia sells HERE, they had better get a free license.
Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
Clue, I do NOT live for your approval docklc, nor your vote.
I was born and raised in Kansas, you do not get any more "American English" speaking than that, and back in the 50's and early 60's, you do not get through school without learning to spell. Still, I often spelled Lumia as Lumina, as it appears in the English language as Luminescent, Luminous and several other scientific variants. I also learned Vietnamese, French and Spanish, and do not remember docklc as being a word in any. Perhaps you could enlighten us as to what language you got it from?
Short Interest In Nokia Falls Sharply [View article]
All in all, it is hard to make money shorting a $3.3 stock to begin with. In many cases, Brokers begin charging progressively more by number of contracts, such as for stocks under $5, some brokers charge a fee for every 5 or 10 contracts. This takes the retail investor out of the Options, and (Like was stated) the major players are not seeing many more "Cash Burn" items. Despite a small loss Q1, $NOK added to their net cash position. Not a lot, but it beats cash declines. Long Nokia, and may go longer if they start meeting the potential increase in demand that a Verizon release could generate. Who knows, maybe we'll even start seeing some Nokia Ads through Verizon.
@milkchaser Exactly. INTC didn't bother with the $20-$40 chips when they were selling the $200-$600 chips to Server farms @ ~50% margins until it's stock started getting hit, and it got bad press, for letting ARM play. By late 2013 or early 2014, Intel will be selling 7Watt Atom 22nm or 28 nm, while readying 14nm chips for late 2014. No one else in the WORLD can match that. I have friends at the local Intel Factory that are talking 9nm chips in a few years.
How Many Lumia Phones Does Nokia Need To Sell? [View article]
OK, so with all your fancy math, NOK sold 4.4 M Lumias and beat estimates by making a profit of 8 cents vs est of 5-6 cent loss. If they were profitable at this level, why not once they have a full Q of sales? Item 2. You have no evidence either way, so you decide it must be wrong-Why? Item 3 Nokia has no "Smart Devices Division" so that makes both 3 and 5 relevant. Essentially you are like so many "Analysts" that discount any evidence that is contrary to their conclusion as "Irrelevant" That is why every Analyst has been wrong on both Apple and Nokia for the last 6 months or so. Sry I clicked on this and sent you a penny.
Elop The Magnificent Makes Nokia's Dividend Disappear [View article]
I am happy to give up a 4% or even8% dividend for a 200% Share price gain. You don't give away all your cash when you are trying to rebuild, you give it away when you have $137 Billion doing nothing while your stock slides 40%
Nokia's Beaten Down Stock Finally Gets Some Asha [View article]
Little late to the Party are we? I have been buying NOK since 2.7. After opening higher today, the bears pushed hard to bring it down, but it still settled for~4.2 for the second day in a row. I raised my personal PT to over 5.5 short term (My Own, I'm no analyst) with tight stops over 4.4-4.6 on a possible consolidation after it hits about 250% from it's lows. That too depends on what day it finds that as Friday there will likely be some Short Squeeze, if not tomorrow. What I spotted was money coming out of Apple for whatever reason, and figured Tech would get some loving with that money. People who have a certain amount dedicated to Tech have to find another Tech area. Rimm is riding up on NOK's back. Rimm buyers will likely sell out around the BB10 release IMO to get back into Apple. STX and WDC looked good, Intel not bad with the Dividend, but with no insider buying except for holding some awarded shares, that scared me off. SWKS, while not dependent on Apple, fell with Apple as one of it's suppliers. Anyone wanting to get out of NOK should consider SWKS once Apple rebounds IMO. Meantime, almost everyone is using SWKS products atm, so it has it's own strength. On an Apple turnaround, I will likely ride SWKS up. OVTI has been taken down with Apple for no good reason since it sells to everyone, but it's 44+ PE scares me a bit. Back to NOK. IMO a valuation of 5.5 - 6 is my top short term target (3 months or less) with a likely consolidation along the way. It has gone almost straight up from 2,7 to 4.2 without a breather, so there may be some buying dips. I'll likely use any dips under a 50 day SMA. (currently around 3.85) as a buy. That said, it always scares me a bit when writers start buffing a stock. Often a sell signal absent other indicators. NOK has enough other upside indicators to reach 5 when Institutions can buy. If they do, I'll ride a small position up as far as it goes.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Heloise, I doubt that you are older than many here, much less most. I can remember the bug in DOS 2.5 where you couldn't have more than 256 entries in the Root Directory. Windows was indeed modeled after Apple's GUI, but what was relevant was that Apple of that era died and was reborn in the mid 90's when MSFT injected money into it, and didn't "Steal" anything, but bought it. The new Apple has only a passing interest in PC's or even laptops. All their money comes from Pods, Pads and Phones. Nokia had to go with MSFT because previous management had burned all their cash, and Nokia needed MSFT's money, OS, App Writers, and money, and money. They have started back to success by being an alternate to Apple and Blackberry's closed systems, and Android's eminently hackable systems. The Register reports that over 90% of Malware is written for Android right now. Nokia has, with Win8, complete compatibility with Windows Office, as well as other Win programs. They are still plagued by over reduction in manufacturing ability, which probably cost them a million 920 sales. Elop is far from perfect, but had Nokia gone Android when Elop arrived, they would be just another asterisk in phone history. They have climbed from 3.17 to 3.66 this week alone, so it may well hit $6 by 2014. Fact is that when it comes to Patents, both Apple and Samsung have to pay Nokia between 5-20 $ per phone sold depending on how many of Nokia's patents they use.
Short Interest In Nokia Falls Sharply [View article]
Lets not forget that it is not like Nokia is selling a big factory there. If they should need to, they could move their HQ to a country with more favorable tax laws (not that they plan to) and they would not have to move too awfully many people. I don't know Finnish tax laws, but here in the US, a building depreciates for tax purposes for up to 50 years, where 100% of the price of a Lease is Tax Deductible, meaning if a building cost 5 Million,, they might get only 100k/year in depreciation writeoff, but if they sell it, and lease it back for say 200k/year, they get to deduct that whole 200k from their taxable income. That is why most US companies lease cars rather than buy them. They get accelerated writeoff. The US publishes a book every year that states how many years each type of purchase depreciates over, and it almost always is longer than the useful life of an item. For Example, If my company buys an Ultrasound Machine, it lists as 7 years depreciation, but by the time a machine is 5 years old, the technology has advanced so much that it has to be replaced. Thus we lose 2 years of depreciation (roughly). By leasing it, we write off the entire lease cost each year.That is just one of many reasons to lease instead of own.
I think it is pure justice that when no one wanted NSN, Nokia rebuilt it into a profitable source of revenue, and anyone who wants to buy it now is going to have to dig way deeper into their pockets than they would have 2 years ago. I haven't looked at how much it cost Nokia and Siemens to restructure it, but I'm betting they will get far more for it than they put in.
Elop The Magnificent Makes Nokia's Dividend Disappear [View article]
Elop has e-Lopped off more fat in his short term at NOK than anyone from Europe could have dared. It was a bloated stagnant mish-mash until he chose a direction, cut out all those 1 month Vacation German jobs, and set a course for success. This group of authors has been bashing NOK all the way from $1.63 to now still over $4.00. Nokia finally shows a profit and it's "Oh We kinda thought about buying some because of an unsustainable Dividend" Better they should go buy REIT's and stay away from Tech. The disclaimer said it all "I am long AAPL" While you are selling apples on a street corner, I am laughing all the way to the bank. Long NOK
Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
When the board dropped the Dividend, so many sellers hit the street Thursday AM that at least 10 million shares were sold in the first 30 min. The revenue "miss" was bogus as so much was reorganization change. The real story was that NOK had turned a profit for the first time in years-meaning that the re-org was taking effect. This little drop is only a buy opportunity for those who want to hang around for a year.
The only real downside is the "Supply Issue". I'll buy it this Q, but it best be solved by next Q to keep me from thinking NOK is suffering mismanagement.
Lumia Lifts Nokia Back To The Black [View article]
OK Nokia is not just the 920, but has many parts which are now all profitable, so the easy answer is. "Nokia has already turned around".
Whether Nokia sells enough 920's to make that division profitable again each Q depends first on whether Nokia can solve Supply Issues. Clearly by looking at reported demand, there is a lot more demand for the 920 than there has been supply. The exact numbers are irrelevant until Nokia 920 supplies meet demand. Only then will we know what the demand really is.
http://amzn.to/WGzZ4G
This is Amazon's best seller list for phones with Plan. When I posted it, The 920 was in position 1,3, 12, 17. Depending on Color.
It updates hourly. For a long time in December, they listed the 920 as "Out of Stock" so we know they could have sold more, but we'll never know how many more. If you look at "Top Rated Phones", Nokia 920 is the top 3 again by color.
Lost my link to Amazon China Phones, maybe someone will be kind enough to link it.
Sadly, I cannot find my link also that showed an approximate profit of $243 / 920 sold. Maybe I can find that one, but that is the latest number that I have seen. I'll accept it as reasonable as it places a 30-40% profit range on a Premier Phone. If you have different numbers at hand, please post.
So now I am seeing that the supply issue is being addressed, The phone is in demand, the company as a whole is profitable, NSN is especially profitable with nearly 70 contracts worldwide. http://seekingalpha.co...
Toyota is switching from Google Maps to Here. http://bit.ly/TgmviX
and the only thing hanging over Nokia's head is "Rumors" of tax problems in India, but not 1 official has gone public about the tax issues, only "Anonymous" IT officials. http://yhoo.it/WZapc1
IMO this is a last gasp attempt by shorts getting squeezed. The source of the rumors seems to be a site hostile to Nokia according to comments on the referenced site.
I may have missed my chance to add another bottom position to my NOK long yesterday, but I already have 2x my normal Tech Allocation in NOK alone, and this after already taking enough profits on the way up to have paid for half of my position as it is.
So my answers are as follows, Yes there is demand for the 920, yes the 920 is profitable enough to help Nokia as a whole, and yes there is an increasing supply of the 920.
Conclusion. Nokia will continue to be profitable. It is not necessary for Nokia to outsell Apple or Samsung to be profitable, Nokia already is.The 920 continues to be the top rated phone according to the largest retailer that I can access.
IMO BUY, but do your own DD
PS for those who say the US market is the indicator, compare AAPL who specializes in the US market with Samsung, who is worldwide, and Nokia likewise. AAPL down ~35-40% NOK up >200% in the last 6 months. In any event, I do not buy a company that I love, I buy a stock with potential. I am long NOK with a 12 month PT of 7-8 optimistically. 5-6 at worst. Just My PT I am not an investment advisor, my advice is worth what you paid for it.
Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
We'll know by mid 2013 how people decide. One thing is certain, Apple will not be able to strongarm providers into the huge subsidies they are used to. The proof is China Mobile.
Apple has had 2 quarters now of declining earnings. Good earnings, but if we see next Q below $7, you'll know.
Will Nokia's Platform Transition Pay Off? [View article]
Thank you for that tidbit. Makes me want to go buy some Sharp as well now. (maybe toe-touch some options)
An Update On Nokia [View article]
Nokia: The Turnaround Story Continues [View article]
I was born and raised in Kansas, you do not get any more "American English" speaking than that, and back in the 50's and early 60's, you do not get through school without learning to spell. Still, I often spelled Lumia as Lumina, as it appears in the English language as Luminescent, Luminous and several other scientific variants.
I also learned Vietnamese, French and Spanish, and do not remember docklc as being a word in any. Perhaps you could enlighten us as to what language you got it from?
Short Interest In Nokia Falls Sharply [View article]
Long Nokia, and may go longer if they start meeting the potential increase in demand that a Verizon release could generate. Who knows, maybe we'll even start seeing some Nokia Ads through Verizon.
Why Intel Is So Tough To Own [View article]
Exactly. INTC didn't bother with the $20-$40 chips when they were selling the $200-$600 chips to Server farms @ ~50% margins until it's stock started getting hit, and it got bad press, for letting ARM play. By late 2013 or early 2014, Intel will be selling 7Watt Atom 22nm or 28 nm, while readying 14nm chips for late 2014. No one else in the WORLD can match that. I have friends at the local Intel Factory that are talking 9nm chips in a few years.
How Many Lumia Phones Does Nokia Need To Sell? [View article]
Item 2. You have no evidence either way, so you decide it must be wrong-Why? Item 3 Nokia has no "Smart Devices Division" so that makes both 3 and 5 relevant.
Essentially you are like so many "Analysts" that discount any evidence that is contrary to their conclusion as "Irrelevant"
That is why every Analyst has been wrong on both Apple and Nokia for the last 6 months or so.
Sry I clicked on this and sent you a penny.
Elop The Magnificent Makes Nokia's Dividend Disappear [View article]
Nokia's Beaten Down Stock Finally Gets Some Asha [View article]
I have been buying NOK since 2.7. After opening higher today, the bears pushed hard to bring it down, but it still settled for~4.2 for the second day in a row. I raised my personal PT to over 5.5 short term (My Own, I'm no analyst) with tight stops over 4.4-4.6 on a possible consolidation after it hits about 250% from it's lows. That too depends on what day it finds that as Friday there will likely be some Short Squeeze, if not tomorrow. What I spotted was money coming out of Apple for whatever reason, and figured Tech would get some loving with that money. People who have a certain amount dedicated to Tech have to find another Tech area. Rimm is riding up on NOK's back. Rimm buyers will likely sell out around the BB10 release IMO to get back into Apple. STX and WDC looked good, Intel not bad with the Dividend, but with no insider buying except for holding some awarded shares, that scared me off. SWKS, while not dependent on Apple, fell with Apple as one of it's suppliers. Anyone wanting to get out of NOK should consider SWKS once Apple rebounds IMO. Meantime, almost everyone is using SWKS products atm, so it has it's own strength. On an Apple turnaround, I will likely ride SWKS up. OVTI has been taken down with Apple for no good reason since it sells to everyone, but it's 44+ PE scares me a bit.
Back to NOK. IMO a valuation of 5.5 - 6 is my top short term target (3 months or less) with a likely consolidation along the way. It has gone almost straight up from 2,7 to 4.2 without a breather, so there may be some buying dips. I'll likely use any dips under a 50 day SMA. (currently around 3.85) as a buy.
That said, it always scares me a bit when writers start buffing a stock. Often a sell signal absent other indicators. NOK has enough other upside indicators to reach 5 when Institutions can buy. If they do, I'll ride a small position up as far as it goes.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Short Interest In Nokia Falls Sharply [View article]
Buy Nokia Hand Over Fist [View article]
Elop The Magnificent Makes Nokia's Dividend Disappear [View article]
While you are selling apples on a street corner, I am laughing all the way to the bank.
Long NOK