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OldWarrior

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  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @User 28775055:
    Actually that very question, when posed by you in one of my Blogs, caused me to really think through a proper answer.

    In the end, I had to write an entire Instablog to fully explain why I chose to buy a stock. (It's at: http://bit.ly/1DjgWYo ).

    The short answer is : I personally require a stock to have Odds ≥87% (7/8), a Cred Ratio of ≥ .9 initially, and to have stayed at ≥ 85% Odds and a .9 Cred Ratio for more than 1 day. (3-5 days is better). I also want to see a stable Weighted R-R Ratio. A decrease in Weighted R-R Ratio of > 10% is, to me, a warning, and >15% means no. All else being equal, I look at the Days Held column as time is also a cost of investment, and one of great significance. If I have been following a stock for multiple days, and decide to buy, I will use the most current BTF Price Target as my sell target.
    However: I hope you have the time to look at that newest Blog for a detailed description of my reasoning process.
    Dec 11, 2014. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Thanks 64, I had not had it explained before.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Very good arguments Peter, plus AAPL has stayed within the "Buy" Range for many days now, thus putting it into a region few stocks enjoy as I showed in my study.
    That said, there is one thing bothering me, and that is that AAPL had an Odds Weighted ratio of ~14.79 on the day of this BTF which has dropped to ~11.51 as of the 8th. This is still a pretty good number, but represents a ~22% drop in 2 market days.

    This certainly bears watching. Since it is well understood that short term swings usually are self-correcting, I am not ready to write AAPL off as too risky certainly; but I am also not ready to spend my Soc Sec Check on it just yet. The Unweighted Risk-Reward Ratio is essentially unchanged.

    The worrying part of these calculations is that they come at least as much from the Odds side rather than the Sample Size part of the equation.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    @rxd2
    You are exactly right. It will be touted as another benefit of being in the Apple "Club"

    The fact remains though that the world is watching AAPL's Holiday Quarter. The MM's have a positive view right now; but they are human and many/most were caught by surprise when AAPL fell off the $700 cliff several years ago. I consider an investment in AAPL the Company as risky now as it was back in the $500 range. It may go 20% in either direction and it will all depend on Holiday Quarter sales.
    AAPL has lost ~2% since this article was written. Part is certainly because the Market Tanked some today (Monday), but when AAPL is strong, it resists DOW movements, and creates it's own NQ "wake" (meaning the NASDQ is so AAPL weighted that it moves the index, not the opposite).
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Considering that retailers have to pay AAPL a % of each purchase, whereas if Target's "Store Card" is not a Visa/MC/whatever, Target would be in the position of extracting probably in excess of 20% interest on any balances not paid by the end of the first statement + any bonus extension, Target is unlikely to give any discount to Apple Pay.

    Apple Pay is far cheaper than what Visa/MC/AMEX etc charge per transaction, so they should favor it some; but it is not the Cash Cow that the Store Card 20%+ interest rate is planned to be.
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    Tmigtkptmilmd
    The solution I have found is that along with the Intelligence Lists that Peter sells, you get quite a number of BTFs and other tools that can be used on ANY stock, not just the ones on the Intelligence List. I wind up using perhaps 30-40% of the BTFs on stocks in the Int Lists maximum, allowing me to follow a few stocks that I have other interests in. Some are stocks that have made me money in the past, and I like to check in on them on occasion. Others are like AAPL, Stocks that a LOT of people own, or at least want to, and by keeping tabs on them, I don't rely on an article with 1-2 day old Data. I have it right on my screen about 1 hour after the Markets Close.
    Sep 25, 2014. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Had Enough Reasoning / Guessing Why The Stock Must Go Up - Or Down? [View article]
    @widglo
    BTFs are available on some 2500 stocks daily through blockdesk.com. Each day the Range index is calculated, whether high or low, and the historical price ranges recorded. In other words, any and all Range Indexes ARE calculated and recorded, and the subsequent price movements tracked. That is what created the database that allows Peter to pull out stocks with a 94% chance of hitting their Price Targets.


    All you need to do is look at the above graphic to see that every Range Index for the 6 months prior were plotted.
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's Apple In The Public's Appraisal Of Market Sentiment? [View article]
    My take is that they (The Market Makers) are relatively neutral on what the Market will do with AAPL. They do not appear overly confident that AAPL will rise, regardless of hit or miss on earnings. With the market having suffered the worst week in a very long time, even if Apple hits, are the investors likely to jump in? Or will they take a more conservative approach.
    Remember that this is not an article on AAPL the Company; but on what the MMs think Apple's stock will do in the next ~3 months. What you or I think is irrelevant. IMO the MMs are not seeing a huge runup. Are they right or wrong? As humans, they can be wrong, but as people with far more data available than Mortal Man, they are more often right than wrong, or someone else would soon be sitting at their desk.
    Jul 12, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's Apple In The Public's Appraisal Of Market Sentiment? [View article]
    @edrichards
    GOOG is close to BUY, MSFT not even in the ballpark. Too early in the evening to see if the Index Futures point for an Upside Friday. Will check back in the wee hours.
    I have some far more lucrative buys left over from Peter's last article to mature before I commit the rest of my money. I'm ~35% Cash as of tonight.
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's Apple In The Public's Appraisal Of Market Sentiment? [View article]
    What I see here is that, despite many MM's feeling the market is frothy, AAPL is approaching, but not quite into the "Buy Range" at 87%. Watch it in about the next week. This week is all gloom and doom on the Street; but there will always be a few good picks. 83% is not bad, but I don't buy below 87%. AAPL is not quite there yet, there could be a further dip allowing for more profit before the BUY button is ready.
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Few Weeks, Seen By Market-Makers. What Then? [View article]
    After some quick and dirty research, TD Ameritrade shows little OBV change since the split, and the 50 day volume (adjusted for the split) shows steadily increasing volume, but at a steady, rather slow pace. I believe that "Handle" is virtually unchanged in a significant way.

    @Peter
    Questions. If the plot in figure 2 is so revealing of uncertainty, why does the BTF show a Credibility Ratio of 1.0? Is that Cred Ratio not the "Confidence Level" of the BTF?
    That BTF, if it should hold for several days (which it did not, falling to 84/100 as of tonight), it would look to be a screaming buy. By updating their opinion to sub-buy range today, it now has fallen well below what I would buy, thus justifying my thesis that a stock should not be bought based upon just 1 BTF; but upon a stock maintaining MM confidence over multiple days.
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Few Weeks, Seen By Market-Makers. What Then? [View article]
    @Three Cheese
    When I first started following Peter, I was equally confused by his data. After numerous questions which Peter patiently answered, I posted a Blog presented in my "less complex" viewpoint where I touch upon his tools. I am going to update it again this weekend, but you might find some info there presented from the investor viewpoint.
    Unfortunately, Data of the nature of those plots is not available; but detailed explanations of the first graphic are there. I am quite open to questions about what I do present, as well as a willingness to explain more fully in the Blog anything left unclear.
    http://bit.ly/ZMgnfB is my Blog's site.
    Jun 27, 2014. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Few Weeks, Seen By Market-Makers. What Then? [View article]
    I must agree with akare. Most articles that mention AAPL turn into squabbles over opinions, whereas in this article, hard data is presented, analyzed, and the only apparent controversy concerns share count traded. On this note, was the dollar handle calculated by share count or from some other source? A change that large in invested capital may have numerous reasons, but would be unusual to say the least. I will look to my own sources to see if I can find actual $-handles.
    Jun 27, 2014. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    I care not for the "Cherry-Picked Stats and charts; but what is telling is that AAPL has some $225B in assets, FCF (revenues-Depr and Amort) of nearly 11B this Q, and R&D of only ~1.3B compared to Depr and Amort of 2.144B this Q. I need no other stats to tell me that AAPL will not quickly bring out new Devices, nor are they feeling the need to. With such miserly R&D in a rather more mature company than the one SJ left is virtually incriminating.
    10 years ago that R&D would have produced some quite interesting stuff, but as a company matures, more of that R&D spending is going to bloated Admin in the R&D Dept, and less to creativity. This is shown by the Depreciation and Amortization being ~double the R&D.
    In other words, they are replacing depreciated technology at half the pace of creation. Forget all those backward looking stats. To think that they will introduce "Disruptive" technologies in 2014 is a very optimistic view considering that they spend less than half on R&D than INTC, who still cannot break down their competitors.
    There will be tradeable periods in 2014, but to "Buy and Hold" will tie up far too much money at far too high a risk this year. Add to that, money kept overseas is likely to suffer depreciation due to weakening world currencies, and they put their own hoard at risk, or at the very least are not making money on it.
    From their 10Q
    Change in foreign currency translation, net of tax (67 )
    Stats lie, Fundamentals do not.
    Feb 9, 2014. 10:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    The only thing I would add as a "Legend" is that as the daily price moves up on a daily range scale, the higher the downside, and the lower the upside. (See my link below to a Blockdesk Tool discussion.) I need to add comparative tools showing price movements along these estimates (represented by the vertical bar). The way I personally read this tool is that the price has only climbed up the estimates during the November period; which to me shows a lot more optimism than results in this Stock.
    Feb 9, 2014. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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