How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
Lets take a quick look at some numbers and see what we learn. Q1 2013 $AAPL Market Cap 430.5B R&D 1119 Admin Selling and General 2672 Ratio .419 $INTC Market Cap 120B R&D 2527 A,S. & G 1947 Ratio 1.298 $NOK Market cap 13B R&D 1011 A,S &G 805 Ratio 1.256 Anyone besides me see a problem with priorities here? You can do all the taxation tricks you want, but when your R&D is not producing anything, having all that cash in the bank will be a nice gift to your Admin and BOD as they vote each other Phat checks.
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
Yeah, Whole bunch of new information there - NOT!!! I gave him 2 clicks, that's my 2 cents worth. That's all he gets. @jcbm I know you are from Europe so in the US we use a term "My 2 cents worth" as a "Slang" term for "I recognize my contribution is pretty worthless"
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
The link worked fine for me, it led me to a page that used a number of pages to state the whole call. At the bottom, it had "Page 1 of 7" or something like that, and a "Next" button.
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
I would give AAPL more of a break if they actually manufactured in the US. They love bragging about their cash horde, but spend less% of revenues on R&D than any manufacturer, and make less money on their hoard than inflation takes. They could easily have had an upgraded product out by now, but they are spending all their time staring at their pile of gold rather than bringing new product to market. What finally stimulated them to start Buybacks and increase the Dividend? The fact that their shares were falling below $400 making their beloved stock options dive in value. I will buy an Apple phone when it says on it "Made in America" Or even maybe "Made in the Free World". They won't even buy chips from Intel, when they hate buying them from Samsung. Don't even think of using "Apple-the Great American Company" as a selling point. BBRY probably puts more money into North America than AAPL. Just make your checks out to Foxxcon or PR of China and skip the Apple HQ middlemen.
Wish I hadn't closed the window, but just read that Apple had to return some 8M iPhones to Foxxcon due to substandard Quality. I'll try to find it if I can, It would have been on Bloomberg, Marketwatch, or TheRegister. Will try to get it posted within 24 hours for your reference.
Having now the hindsight of AAPL's earnings release, I have to point out that, while Apple built up that huge cash hoard, they did not pump even as much into R&D as Intel did over this past year. Now we are going on 7 months since Apple's last product release, and not so much as an OS upgrade announcement. One thing is abundantly clear is that you rather have to stay in the public eye to recover. Since the iPhone 5, we have seen every competitor release a product arguably as good as the 5, and not even rumors about the 5S, or any other even cosmetic improvement. Now we saw today a 15% increase in Dividend and a share buyback of some $55B, part of which will be funded by floating bonds After a brief cheer, the market has absorbed it after hours with a huge yawn. I have to give TC a grade of C+ for performance, as he has had a huge pocketbook, a cooperative board, and nothing exciting to show for it. At least he didn't go out and buy some scam business like HP did, but had he blown $40B on Sprint and Co., he might well have been vilified, as Sprint continues to lose money every Quarter. The Dish Network buyout is not exactly a done deal as it is. If that deal falls through, both their stocks can probably be picked up cheaper. If they do the deal, the resulting company will have a massive debt load to service, something that I am skeptical that TC would look at fondly. If he wants to take a chance like that, -IMO -T-Mobile would seem to be more appealing. It's a far better managed company anyway, and has a more manageable network. (Smaller, but with AAPL's cash it could be built out). All that aside, Mr. Cook needs to unlock his war Chest, and start getting products to market regularly during the year, rather than one big party per year. Even if they don't have a "Show Stopper" product, they should do something to stay in the Public Eye. Spring could be Tablet Time, Aug-Sept, the Phone, and a mini with the best possible camera maybe Black Friday. Or maybe the Mini in say early August to catch the School rush, and the Black Friday date for the iPhoneX-for-Christmas with the Camera on it. That would open late spring for a iPhone Xs as Bug fixes and OS updates. As of this writing (wee early April 24). TC has not (to my knowledge) even mentioned any new products or OS upgrades for the coming Quarter.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
So I take it that your evaluation method is far more accurate, the more days you have to evaluate, limiting it's accuracy on recent IPO's. That is understandable as you are sorting nearly half the stocks on the Market and the trends develop over more extended time periods. I'm going to watch those 2 stocks a while to see whether they move or not. Thank you for the addition to my education, every time you post, I learn a little bit.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Thank you for the explanation. You obviously have far more data than I am privy to, I often have to just rely on scraps of info posted here on SA as well as what companies release. That said, my gut feeling is that $GOOG may be reaching the same bubble territory that hit $AAPL, but with far less earnings, so no, I would not put new money into either atm. I might miss out on a huge spike like I did of Netflix, but I can't be invested everywhere like the MM are. I cannot imagine what it would be like to wade through all your data, and still have time to educate us. I salute you.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
I still have not seen a response to my observation that $GOOG has moved up to the mid-range of expected price range, and why you think Google is better when both are almost at the same range mid-point.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
My take on price movements as described. With $AAPL, PFW has described it as a "Momentum" stock, meaning that the amount of inflow would not be as meaningful from some outside source, as say an announcement of a share buyback by Apple's BOD. If $AAPL did something that generated upward momentum, then the stock could make some meaningful gains. Unless some outside force injected incredible amounts into $AAPL, they would have a hard time building upwards momentum-It would IMO almost have to come from within Apple. As I have followed PFW, I see that there are many stocks that violate what the Market Maker's projections are, but by and large, not for an extended period of time. Amazon probably is an outlier among others, but the MM's have more information and faster than almost anyone else, certainly way more than the Retail Investor at the bottom of the food chain. Absent a computer malfunction, they don't often seem to lose money. Data Analysis comes from his well funded ability to follow what the MM's are apparently thinking/doing. There are White Swans as well as Black. This article just happened to be about a recently declining stock, as well as 2 others that may or mat not be at risk. From my followings, I am seeing indications that neither $FB nor $GOOG look promising, as the Daily Price looks to me to be climbing up the estimated Daily Expected Range to ~50%. I personally would not go into either one after seeing this. DoctoRx, how does your OBV or whatever your preferred methods view $FB and $GOOG? Do they point up, down, or sideways. My own methods absent this article are pointing down within ~3 months or less. I invite comments/criticisms.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
@DoctoRx Judging by the responses I got whenever I said anything about $AAPL even after it had begun it's fall, I can only imagine the highly emotionally charged responses you got with any article with warnings about them back before the crash. I'm betting you got a zillion hits, and almost all claiming you as the "Idiot of SA". You must have skin as thick as a Tank. I applaud your courage.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
It's still appropriate here. The whole presentation is "What's it All About? <grin> From Dion Warwick by Burt Bacharach & Hal David http://bit.ly/HNTW1K
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Edit timer ran out- What I would love to see would be an interactive chart where we could select certain days along the path of the chart to see what the expected range for that day or even week is, and compare it to the price that time, and see where the % of expected range the closing price is. Then seeing the reaction of the price to follow to actually watch the price move up and down the range. Probably that amount of detail is for the people who pay your bills, but one once in a while would be very educational.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Thanks again PFW, for putting into numbers what I was suspecting, although I look at it a bit differently (being only a Retail Investor) First, I subscribe to the theory that a large number of investors assign a relatively fixed % of their capital into each sector, so unless a whole sector tanks, their "Tech" money goes into other Tech firms. Hence Google saw a lot. as well as $NOK, $BBRY, and other Tech firms. These do not move the markets, but are of interest to the retail investor. One thing I note is the chart on Google. Unless I am mistaken, the bar on the chart has moved up the "Range" into at least "Hold" territory, if not into "Sell". If there is a correction as so many pundits predict, it looks like Google may be one of the first to take a hit. I see little difference in the "Range Chart" between $FB and $GOOG. Both are almost exactly at mid range of the Bar, so why does Google look better?
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
$AAPL Market Cap 430.5B R&D 1119 Admin Selling and General 2672 Ratio .419
$INTC Market Cap 120B R&D 2527 A,S. & G 1947 Ratio 1.298
$NOK Market cap 13B R&D 1011 A,S &G 805 Ratio 1.256
Anyone besides me see a problem with priorities here?
You can do all the taxation tricks you want, but when your R&D is not producing anything, having all that cash in the bank will be a nice gift to your Admin and BOD as they vote each other Phat checks.
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
I gave him 2 clicks, that's my 2 cents worth. That's all he gets.
@jcbm I know you are from Europe so in the US we use a term "My 2 cents worth" as a "Slang" term for "I recognize my contribution is pretty worthless"
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
Don't even think of using "Apple-the Great American Company" as a selling point. BBRY probably puts more money into North America than AAPL. Just make your checks out to Foxxcon or PR of China and skip the Apple HQ middlemen.
Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
Apple: Is It HP All Over Again? [View article]
All that aside, Mr. Cook needs to unlock his war Chest, and start getting products to market regularly during the year, rather than one big party per year. Even if they don't have a "Show Stopper" product, they should do something to stay in the Public Eye. Spring could be Tablet Time, Aug-Sept, the Phone, and a mini with the best possible camera maybe Black Friday. Or maybe the Mini in say early August to catch the School rush, and the Black Friday date for the iPhoneX-for-Christmas with the Camera on it. That would open late spring for a iPhone Xs as Bug fixes and OS updates.
As of this writing (wee early April 24). TC has not (to my knowledge) even mentioned any new products or OS upgrades for the coming Quarter.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
I cannot imagine what it would be like to wade through all your data, and still have time to educate us. I salute you.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
With $AAPL, PFW has described it as a "Momentum" stock, meaning that the amount of inflow would not be as meaningful from some outside source, as say an announcement of a share buyback by Apple's BOD. If $AAPL did something that generated upward momentum, then the stock could make some meaningful gains. Unless some outside force injected incredible amounts into $AAPL, they would have a hard time building upwards momentum-It would IMO almost have to come from within Apple.
As I have followed PFW, I see that there are many stocks that violate what the Market Maker's projections are, but by and large, not for an extended period of time. Amazon probably is an outlier among others, but the MM's have more information and faster than almost anyone else, certainly way more than the Retail Investor at the bottom of the food chain. Absent a computer malfunction, they don't often seem to lose money.
Data Analysis comes from his well funded ability to follow what the MM's are apparently thinking/doing. There are White Swans as well as Black. This article just happened to be about a recently declining stock, as well as 2 others that may or mat not be at risk.
From my followings, I am seeing indications that neither $FB nor $GOOG look promising, as the Daily Price looks to me to be climbing up the estimated Daily Expected Range to ~50%. I personally would not go into either one after seeing this.
DoctoRx, how does your OBV or whatever your preferred methods view $FB and $GOOG? Do they point up, down, or sideways.
My own methods absent this article are pointing down within ~3 months or less.
I invite comments/criticisms.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Judging by the responses I got whenever I said anything about $AAPL even after it had begun it's fall, I can only imagine the highly emotionally charged responses you got with any article with warnings about them back before the crash. I'm betting you got a zillion hits, and almost all claiming you as the "Idiot of SA". You must have skin as thick as a Tank. I applaud your courage.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
From Dion Warwick by Burt Bacharach & Hal David
http://bit.ly/HNTW1K
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
Probably that amount of detail is for the people who pay your bills, but one once in a while would be very educational.
Where's The Hot Money Drained From Apple Stock? Can Behavioral Analysis Find It? [View article]
First, I subscribe to the theory that a large number of investors assign a relatively fixed % of their capital into each sector, so unless a whole sector tanks, their "Tech" money goes into other Tech firms. Hence Google saw a lot. as well as $NOK, $BBRY, and other Tech firms. These do not move the markets, but are of interest to the retail investor.
One thing I note is the chart on Google. Unless I am mistaken, the bar on the chart has moved up the "Range" into at least "Hold" territory, if not into "Sell". If there is a correction as so many pundits predict, it looks like Google may be one of the first to take a hit. I see little difference in the "Range Chart" between $FB and $GOOG. Both are almost exactly at mid range of the Bar, so why does Google look better?