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OldWarrior

OldWarrior
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  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    I care not for the "Cherry-Picked Stats and charts; but what is telling is that AAPL has some $225B in assets, FCF (revenues-Depr and Amort) of nearly 11B this Q, and R&D of only ~1.3B compared to Depr and Amort of 2.144B this Q. I need no other stats to tell me that AAPL will not quickly bring out new Devices, nor are they feeling the need to. With such miserly R&D in a rather more mature company than the one SJ left is virtually incriminating.
    10 years ago that R&D would have produced some quite interesting stuff, but as a company matures, more of that R&D spending is going to bloated Admin in the R&D Dept, and less to creativity. This is shown by the Depreciation and Amortization being ~double the R&D.
    In other words, they are replacing depreciated technology at half the pace of creation. Forget all those backward looking stats. To think that they will introduce "Disruptive" technologies in 2014 is a very optimistic view considering that they spend less than half on R&D than INTC, who still cannot break down their competitors.
    There will be tradeable periods in 2014, but to "Buy and Hold" will tie up far too much money at far too high a risk this year. Add to that, money kept overseas is likely to suffer depreciation due to weakening world currencies, and they put their own hoard at risk, or at the very least are not making money on it.
    From their 10Q
    Change in foreign currency translation, net of tax (67 )
    Stats lie, Fundamentals do not.
    Feb 9 10:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    The only thing I would add as a "Legend" is that as the daily price moves up on a daily range scale, the higher the downside, and the lower the upside. (See my link below to a Blockdesk Tool discussion.) I need to add comparative tools showing price movements along these estimates (represented by the vertical bar). The way I personally read this tool is that the price has only climbed up the estimates during the November period; which to me shows a lot more optimism than results in this Stock.
    Feb 9 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    Just remember that Volatility is not a bad thing. It provides opportunities to get into and out of positions that produce repeated gains far above a "Buy and Hold" position. Volatility=Opportunity. I believe that almost every portfolio should have a certain % set aside for taking advantage of these opportunities; and personally, that % in my portfolio will increase substantially once Blockdesk.com opens up.
    Feb 2 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    Having followed Peter very closely for over a year, a common time-to-price target is 3 months, or 63 market days. All things considered, I personally would expect AAPL to hit it's PT sooner; but I also would not close out my position before then in this case unless it did hit it's PT.
    Occasionally Peter gives a different timeline, so I claim no greater insight here than he has expressed in this article. I am still only a student.
    Feb 2 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    @Author
    Since you include CapEx in your FCF calculations, I think you are blinding yourself from companies that require considerable CapEx like the very top cutting edge companies while putting a premium on companies that underspend on CapEx. AAPL has a long history of buying companies for their technology rather than spending their own cash hoard to invest in their own research. I think I can safely assume that you would never touch INTC, and missed their ~20% runup from ~21 to >26 because of their high CapEx. I really don't care enough about AAPL to run the numbers; but when a Tech underspends on CapEx, they can get seriously hammered by companies like Nokia who have massive Patent Portfolios. The very thing in your calculation that keeps a company on the cutting edge is somehow attractive to you. When a company like AAPL underspends on CapEx, we get the minimal innovations that AAPL has shown us since Steve left. That 64 bit processor didn't come from AAPL research, they bought it. By your metric, R&D is BAD, as it is included in CapEx as much as building a new FAB is under generally acceptable accounting standards.
    Please Please check your figures against Revenues minus Depreciation and Amortization and compare your results. As an added bonus, if a company pays a dividend, using my metric will tell you how safe that Dividend is. If they pay out >50% of FCF, the Div is shaky. If over 70%, it is unsustainable.
    Feb 2 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Carriers like Verizon routinely back up whatever you want from any phone you use, so iCloud is rather irrelevant. I personally back up everything on my phone to my 2TB storage drive. In my case, even the Cloud is irrelevant. Backing up data on every tech toy I have is simple since I can set it to backup every time I hook my phone to my PC or Laptop to charge it, and my toys to other places on my home network.
    Repeat business comes not from being locked into an ecosystem; but from satisfaction with my brand of toy.
    Feb 2 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Sadly; There are still people out there who actually risk their hard earned money on the word of a Bank Based "Analyst"
    From summer 2012 to Q1 2013 JPM and GS had NOK at Sell, while one doubled their position, the other increased position by 700%. Nokia went from <$2 to >$4 during that time, when those banks dumped their ~$2.5 stocks at >$4.
    The only thing "Analysts" are good for is that once in a while they point out something worth further DD. Mercifully, they no longer kill trees to spout their blathering. At least we can re-use the pixels.
    Even so-called "Independent Analysts' often have an agenda, or at best are late to the party.

    Personally, I expect the correction to end rather soon, but am ~50% cash. I can guarantee that whatever I buy coming out will not be influenced by any "Analyst".
    Feb 2 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    I respectfully disagree that Apple is coveted by all. As a Baby Boomer, few of us care about Brands over Function. (We don't buy $300 sneakers either) and we DO have much of the wealth. Statistics also show more homes have PC's than Smartphones ATM.
    That said, if an iPhone or iPad meets our needs better, that is what we buy.
    http://bit.ly/1eIpCFL
    Android phones taking Market Share from about everyone.
    BUT
    http://bit.ly/1eIpENR
    and
    http://bit.ly/1eIpCFN
    So AAPL's still likely to bring out more interesting goodies in the next few years.
    Disclaimer: I am neither short nor long any Tech company today, but may buy, sell or short anything on a daily basis.
    Feb 2 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1nCRzqd
    Feb 2 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    See what you get with my definition above. CapEx is controllable, Dep & Amort are not. Probably will not differ a lot, but CapEx is a decision where Depreciation & Am are fixed.
    Feb 2 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Even "THE CARL" cannot manage to buy enough to manipulate AAPL. His $500m buy didn't move the needle last week (Last week of Jan).
    Feb 2 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Apple Bears Have Got It Wrong And Here Is The Proof [View article]
    Just 1 question. How do you define Free Cash Flow?
    My definition has always been Revenue minus Depreciation and Amortization, as only those 2 are unavoidable and uncontrollable costs. Everything else can be managed (and manipulated).
    A great new unbiased article on AAPL was just published by Peter Way.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    He is showing that the Market Makers are estimating ~20% upside; but <IMO> only after this blind correction stabilizes. His timelines are usually ~3 months.
    For those unfamiliar with him. he has a method of tracking how much the MMs pay for "hedging" their investments and deriving from how much they pay, how optimistic or pessimistic they are on a given stock.
    Feb 2 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock Price: What Do Market-Makers Think It Can Sell For? [View article]
    @tuliptown and others.
    I invite you to my discussion of Peter's upcoming available tools at http://bit.ly/1ltlbI7
    I'm happy to help and answer such questions as I have knowledge of. Also, I get no pay for views of my Blog, so it is just informational.
    Feb 1 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains A Good Short [View article]
    The type of subsidies that AAPL gets are like what they did to Verizon. In order to sell AAPL phones, they had to sigh a "Take or Pay: contract. They essentially had to buy x# of iPhones, whether they could pass them on to a consumer or not. That type of contract is probably why CM would not sell iPhones for so long, they would not accept AAPL's terms.
    The Author is right about the "Hate Mail" factor. I have seen a lot of attacks, but only CM and AAPL actually have facts.
    Jan 11 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Process Has Begun [View article]
    While I readily accept your numbers, when it comes to actually investing in AAPL, I am wary of "Buy the Rumor....". If the stock stays rather stable until very near earnings, a beat should pop it. If it runs up more than <my guess> ~5-7% before earnings, a selloff after earnings may be a better buy in point than we see now. The way it runs with or counter to the Market over the next week or 2 should give you your Buy/Wait signal. I'm not a buyer until I see how the Market Trend vs the AAPL Trend shows.
    Dec 17 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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