jurp

Where's the Bottom?

One no longer has to explain why one is renting. It is cheaper, and wiser.

House's peak production was 1926-7, and they bottomed about 1940.
they went down 75%.

So, for sake of argument, say all is over in 3.5 years, and only goes 1/4 as far. That gives you a 18% decline, in 1/4 the time.

Then, using the rent to price rational of Fortune Magazine, now 250 times rent, houses will be 188 times rent. Not great, but manageable.

UBS: U.S. Bailout for Homeowners Will Arrive by October

140 billion bails out 2 milllion homes. This includes a 50 Interest free mortagage takeover by the government, and 5 years of a 2% reduction in the mortgage interest rate.

But it does avoid another 2 million houses sold at auction.

Is Overindebtedness Pushing Us Into a Deflationary Spriral?

I once showed a fellow where a a shoemaker was, and how new resoles, would save him money to pay off 32k in credit card debt.
(yes, he had a graduate degree)

So, if/when money/loans/job is not available, goods must go down until a buyer is found. Hence the 1921 house I grew up in, declined 5k a year until it was bought for 20 k in 1941.

Unfortunately one has to be 77 years old, like me, to remember WPA workers on the corner, families doubling up in one house.

May the 47 million baby boomers enjoy their forced education in thrift.

Be a Value Nerd or Follow the Momentum Herd?

But, when using either method, be sure to have some sort of stop loss. e.g. F going from 40 (when Templeton bot it, to 15 then to ??, and now 9)