Paul D. Castro, CFA's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/172421/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/92995-adjusted-for-household-size-real-income-reached-an-all-time-high-in-2007?source=feed#comment-241112 241112 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:50:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92962-mindless-churn-in-trendless-market?source=feed#comment-240475 240475
For the entire 12 months of 1994 the S&P bounced around between 400 and 500, never once closing above 481 or closing below 438 (a range of 9.8%). In December 1994 the S&P then took off on a 52% rally that finally peaked in May 1996.

We'll just have to wait and see if the price action also mirrors the sentiment. My money is invested as if it will.]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 18:57:25 -0400
For the entire 12 months of 1994 the S&P bounced around between 400 and 500, never once closing above 481 or closing below 438 (a range of 9.8%). In December 1994 the S&P then took off on a 52% rally that finally peaked in May 1996.

We'll just have to wait and see if the price action also mirrors the sentiment. My money is invested as if it will.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90686-today-8217-s-bull-market-is-tomorrow-8217-s-bear-trap?source=feed#comment-230374 230374 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:06:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90686-today-8217-s-bull-market-is-tomorrow-8217-s-bear-trap?source=feed#comment-230372 230372
bespokeinvest.typepad....

Since 1956 the DJIA has completed 16 downtrends (the current downtrend is the 17th). Those 16 downtrends (series of lower pullback low's and lower rally high's) have averaged 370 calendar days each and losses of each. Measuring from the peak on 10.09.07 to the most recent low on 07.15.08, the current downtrend has lasted 280 calendar days and evaporated 23% of the DJIA's value.

So far the current downtrend has been fairly typical and, if the historical averages are any guide, is pretty close to being over.

See my blog for similar analyses I conducted on the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500.

www.vestopia.com/IDs/P...]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:05:00 -0400
bespokeinvest.typepad....

Since 1956 the DJIA has completed 16 downtrends (the current downtrend is the 17th). Those 16 downtrends (series of lower pullback low's and lower rally high's) have averaged 370 calendar days each and losses of each. Measuring from the peak on 10.09.07 to the most recent low on 07.15.08, the current downtrend has lasted 280 calendar days and evaporated 23% of the DJIA's value.

So far the current downtrend has been fairly typical and, if the historical averages are any guide, is pretty close to being over.

See my blog for similar analyses I conducted on the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500.

www.vestopia.com/IDs/P...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90382-have-we-reached-the-turning-point?source=feed#comment-228250 228250 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 18:48:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80415-u-s-unemployment-during-recessions-and-expansions?source=feed#comment-180560 180560 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 15:51:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79988-you-are-to-blame-sobering-words-from-dallas-fed-president?source=feed#comment-179385 179385
I think what he's saying is that the Fed's hand was forced by fiscal defecits. But I agree that the Fed is part of the problem and, at least since Volker, hasn't been part of the solution.]]> Wed, 04 Jun 2008 19:22:50 -0400
I think what he's saying is that the Fed's hand was forced by fiscal defecits. But I agree that the Fed is part of the problem and, at least since Volker, hasn't been part of the solution.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79592-cnnmoneys-depression-comparisons-misguided-shows-its-imminent?source=feed#comment-177949 177949
Massive foreign inflows are the bell that rings at stock market tops, not bottoms. To illustrate, foreign Net Private Equity purchases reached a peak at $28B in February 2000. That peak was surpassed in May 2007 when foreign Net Private Equity purchases clocked in at $43B.

If you want to look for a bottom in the stock market, look for persistent foreign selling. Foreigners are no more immune to greed and fear than domestic investors.

See below link for TICC data.

www.treas.gov/tic/ticp...]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 11:09:17 -0400
Massive foreign inflows are the bell that rings at stock market tops, not bottoms. To illustrate, foreign Net Private Equity purchases reached a peak at $28B in February 2000. That peak was surpassed in May 2007 when foreign Net Private Equity purchases clocked in at $43B.

If you want to look for a bottom in the stock market, look for persistent foreign selling. Foreigners are no more immune to greed and fear than domestic investors.

See below link for TICC data.

www.treas.gov/tic/ticp...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79533-what-recession-disposable-income-grows?source=feed#comment-176753 176753
What is the matter with you!?! Stop bringing this kind of data to our attention and get out there and buy a shotgun, lots of shells and stock up on canned goods for pete's sake.]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:38:29 -0400
What is the matter with you!?! Stop bringing this kind of data to our attention and get out there and buy a shotgun, lots of shells and stock up on canned goods for pete's sake.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79018-dow-jones-industrial-headed-for-major-breakdown?source=feed#comment-174685 174685
Comparing both days and %'s to the averages leads me to believe the odds favor a continuation of the current intermediate rally. Not a lead pipe cinch, just looking at the odds.]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 15:56:40 -0400
Comparing both days and %'s to the averages leads me to believe the odds favor a continuation of the current intermediate rally. Not a lead pipe cinch, just looking at the odds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77423-gauging-market-strength-after-a-move-to-new-highs?source=feed#comment-168110 168110 Thu, 15 May 2008 11:40:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76169-s-p-500-down-more-than-1-for-first-time-in-26-days?source=feed#comment-163726 163726
08-15-07 close = 1,406.70 = higher low,
10-09-07 close = 1,565.15 = higher high,
01-22-08 close = 1,310.50 = lower low (first lower low since Nov 02 which was also the last lower low of the post-bubble bear market),
02-01-08 close = 1,395.42 = lower high,
03-10-08 close = 1,273.37 = lower low,
05-06-08 close = 1,418.26 = higher high (first since Oct 07)

What this most recent higher high means is a new uptrend (ie, bull market) has begun. The last time the S&P made a higher high after a series of lower highs and lower lows was in Mar 04. That uptrend lasted until the lower low in Jan 08 (ie, 3 yrs and 10 months). The only event that could occur which would annul the new bull market thesis would be a take-out of the Mar 08 closing low.

]]> Wed, 07 May 2008 18:46:28 -0400
08-15-07 close = 1,406.70 = higher low,
10-09-07 close = 1,565.15 = higher high,
01-22-08 close = 1,310.50 = lower low (first lower low since Nov 02 which was also the last lower low of the post-bubble bear market),
02-01-08 close = 1,395.42 = lower high,
03-10-08 close = 1,273.37 = lower low,
05-06-08 close = 1,418.26 = higher high (first since Oct 07)

What this most recent higher high means is a new uptrend (ie, bull market) has begun. The last time the S&P made a higher high after a series of lower highs and lower lows was in Mar 04. That uptrend lasted until the lower low in Jan 08 (ie, 3 yrs and 10 months). The only event that could occur which would annul the new bull market thesis would be a take-out of the Mar 08 closing low.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75367-barry-ritholtz-wants-investors-to-stay-cautious?source=feed#comment-160891 160891
I used to read Barry's blog but I've stopped because he (and especially his readers who post comments) are just way too nihilistic.]]> Fri, 02 May 2008 15:46:07 -0400
I used to read Barry's blog but I've stopped because he (and especially his readers who post comments) are just way too nihilistic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74637-informed-traders-and-options-use?source=feed#comment-158791 158791 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:25:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72600-a-new-bullish-divergence?source=feed#comment-152263 152263
I was referring to intermediate highs, not all-time highs. To illustrate, the last time the S&P 500 made a higher price high was on October 9, 2007 when it closed at 1,565 which exceeded the previous intermediate closing high of 1,552 reached on July 13, 2007. The most recent intermediate high was the close at 1,395 on February 1, 2008.

So when I say a higher high, I am looking for the S&P to close above 1,395 sometime in the next few weeks. Once that happens, then I'm looking for an intermediate low that does not violate the 1,273 close we saw on March 10, 2008. If this happens then a new series of higher highs and higher lows would have begun (ie, a new bull market).]]> Thu, 17 Apr 2008 11:50:14 -0400
I was referring to intermediate highs, not all-time highs. To illustrate, the last time the S&P 500 made a higher price high was on October 9, 2007 when it closed at 1,565 which exceeded the previous intermediate closing high of 1,552 reached on July 13, 2007. The most recent intermediate high was the close at 1,395 on February 1, 2008.

So when I say a higher high, I am looking for the S&P to close above 1,395 sometime in the next few weeks. Once that happens, then I'm looking for an intermediate low that does not violate the 1,273 close we saw on March 10, 2008. If this happens then a new series of higher highs and higher lows would have begun (ie, a new bull market).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71883-current-valuations-are-well-above-the-market-s-historical-average?source=feed#comment-148447 148447 www2.standardandpoors....
and see that trailing 4-qtr operating earnings were $82.54. By my calculator, that makes the trailing P/E = ~16.6. The same site shows S&P As Reported earnings of $67.81 but when you click on www2.standardandpoors.... under S&P 500 the excel page that loads shows S&P 1500.]]> Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:49:36 -0400 www2.standardandpoors....
and see that trailing 4-qtr operating earnings were $82.54. By my calculator, that makes the trailing P/E = ~16.6. The same site shows S&P As Reported earnings of $67.81 but when you click on www2.standardandpoors.... under S&P 500 the excel page that loads shows S&P 1500.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71872-why-hedge-funds-lose-money-in-volatile-markets?source=feed#comment-148394 148394 Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:41:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71756-signs-that-foreclosures-may-be-peaking?source=feed#comment-147908 147908 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 17:47:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70391-the-current-market-according-to-the-dow-theory?source=feed#comment-136036 136036
The buy signal was given in early 2004 which was the first time coming out of the bear market when the Industrials and the Transports first made a concurrent higher high. The higher high in both the transports and the industrials in July 2007 served at the time to confirm the uptrend phase was still intact, at least until a sell signal was given in November 2007. There is a distincition between signal and phase (ie, trend).]]> Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:33:36 -0400
The buy signal was given in early 2004 which was the first time coming out of the bear market when the Industrials and the Transports first made a concurrent higher high. The higher high in both the transports and the industrials in July 2007 served at the time to confirm the uptrend phase was still intact, at least until a sell signal was given in November 2007. There is a distincition between signal and phase (ie, trend).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70945-is-the-risk-monster-getting-hungry-again?source=feed#comment-136035 136035 Thu, 03 Apr 2008 12:33:21 -0400