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Aly-Khan Satchu » Comments » DBC

  • Commodities Volatility Indicate Firming Demand, Rising Prices [View article]
    I think the Equity markets might have found a bottom.

    The only reason Oil has bounced is because of the Contango and a misperception that Gaza carries geopolitical risks.

    You might care to look at the Baltic Dry Index. It has been a near perfect forward indicator.

    Aly-Khan Satchu
    rich.co.ke
    Jan 07 09:14 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Commentary: May 19th - May 23rd [View article]
    Matthew,

    Very enlightening. I have a strong conviction about the softs and was keen to make a leveraged investment via Options. From your piece, its clear that you trade them. Is there a liquid market for options two years out in the softs? Is this the way you would reccommend the play, out of the money calls or are there other structures you can reccommend?

    Aly-Khan Satchu
    rich.co.ke
    May 22 06:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Is Anyone Benefiting From Global Inflation?  [View article]
    Sir,

    You say; Although the general price level is rising, the truth is that relative prices have experienced an imbalance, with commodities outpacing the rise of other sectors.

    Surely, this entirely depends on your starting point. If you care to look on a longer term basis, many Commodities sufferred from a long period of price underperformance. This started to correct in 2002-2003 with the Oil and Metals complex. The Softs have only recently started to perform and I agree we have passed the tipping point in this regard. We are at the start of something and not even anywhere near the middle.

    Clearly, the Beneficiaries are those who are long of resources. The Natural longs faced a one sided demand structure [The West] and the rapid arrival of China and India brought competition to that demand equation. It seems to me to be as basic as that.

    Hence one could argue that Consumers [and the biggest Consumers are in the West] have paid an Alice in Wonderland price for their consumption. We are now reverting to a fairer price structure.

    Our 'Goldilocks' economic assumptions were just that. They were too US and Euro centric.

    The free ride is over. Investors have already taken note.

    Aly-Khan Satchu
    rich.co.ke
    Apr 28 07:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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