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J Collins

J Collins
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  • Herbalife (HLF) FQ2 EPS beats by $0.23, revenue beats [View news story]
    HLF seems to be finally getting closer to its intrinsic value. If it was not for Icahn on board, I would be seriously contemplating (in fact still am) on selling all my holdings in HLF at this juncture and taking my profits off the table. And I do feel a part of this bump in price could be attributed to Ackman covering his short position.
    Jul 29, 2013. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COMEX Gold Inventories: Every Top-200 Hedge Fund Can Buy All The Registered Gold At The COMEX [View article]
    Let's get this straight. China and/or India, (for that matter most of the developing world) is corrupt to the core and shall make for less than perfect leaders in terms of ethics and morality. That being said, most of the Western world has been in a state of steady decline since the late 1960s. This insidious decline, set in place mostly due to a sense of arrogance is now becoming more evident to the discerning observers. Pretty soon it shall be before all to see. Returning back to the East, their so called economic boom is primarily a direct result of the Western consumption run amok. There is hardly an Eastern economy that has indigenous consumption to support even a fraction of the economic growth they have witnessed over the last decade and a half or so. And what in the end shall in all likelihood prove to be the insurmountable nemesis for most of the East is the extremely deep-rooted corruption that is so systemic that hardly any person in Eastern societies is left untouched by it on a daily basis.
    Jul 29, 2013. 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Shot J.R.? The Junior Gold Mining Murder Mystery [View article]
    Anyone who says manipulation of commodity and/or equity markets by the banks is not very likely, should keep in mind that given the precedent of massive LIBOR manipulation by the banks, it would not be prudent to rule out the possibility of manipulation.
    Jul 26, 2013. 06:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former Neuberger Berman CIO Defends Bernanke [View article]
    Mr. Wagner, it is too premature to give the all-clear. Since almost your entire argument is hinging on Mr. Bernanke's supposed extraordinary foresight into the future, it will be interesting to see your take on how he was apparently the last guy on the block to realize we had a looming housing crisis. I will take the liberty to quote Mr. Bernanke's own words while assessing the housing situation, as late as 2007:

    (March 28, 2007) "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency."

    (May 17, 2007) "All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable."
    Jul 24, 2013. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Rally? 'No' Says India [View article]
    Compare the relative GDPs (based on purchasing power parity) of the Eastern countries 10 years ago to today. If it was not for some Wall Street bankers' ingenuous creation of paper gold through instruments like GLD, then the price of gold will be completely in hands of those Asian markets by now. Instruments like GLD (which can create gold from thin air) can only delay the inevitable dominance of demand-supply metrics for the physical but cannot prevent it.
    Jul 24, 2013. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold To Rally? 'No' Says India [View article]
    Indian politicians have tried controlling the import of gold before. It did not work back then and there is no reason it will work now. Love for gold in India (and for that matter more Eastern cultures) goes back to thousands of years and is deeply ingrained in the social, religious and cultural psyche of the people.
    Jul 24, 2013. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A $180 Million Company Worth Less Than $0: Short Xumanii [View article]
    Excellent call. This stock looks way overpriced on almost all metrics.
    Jul 23, 2013. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Former SandRidge Energy (SD) CEO Tom Ward sold nearly 10M shares in the company after he was fired last month, bringing in ~$47M in proceeds. The sales cut Ward's position in SD, which he founded, by more than 40% to 2.7% of its outstanding shares. Upon his firing, Ward received a severance package worth more than $90M in cash and stock. [View news story]
    Tom Ward and Aubrey McClendon, are synonymous with corporate malfeasance and are representatives of an unfortunate culture where the top executives of some companies are allowed to poach with impunity for years on the hapless shareholders. And to add insult to the injury of the shareholders, these guys get a golden parachute!
    Jul 22, 2013. 08:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Can Engage In Value Creation Through Preservation [View article]
    BBRY is fundamentally a great buy but from a technical standpoint, it currently remains firmly planted in the bear territory. If a value investor is willing to patiently wait on the sidelines for the right entry point (after the current downturn is exhausted) he/she can reap rich rewards for their patience.
    Jul 17, 2013. 02:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources Has Limited Downside And Can Double In 12 Months [View article]
    Based on intrinsic value, CLF does has the potential to go up to $30 within a 12-18 month time-frame according to my valuation model. That being said, it is not quite out of the woods on the technical front and does have more than 60% chance of further drawdown from current levels. So I would suggest to be on the lookout for a reversal in trend for the coal industry as a whole before making any sizable commitment to CLF.
    Jul 17, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Still Needs To Get Punished For Us To Get Interested [View article]
    Marcap you said, "...Those who honestly believe that money is not lost until shares are eventually sold, unfortunately do not understand the stock markets, and are only fooling themselves..."

    Well I guess in that case Buffett should be included in that group too. He has admittedly held on to his portfolio through 3 episodes of 50% or greater drawdown on his entire portfolio. Almost every great investor has had holdings that they had enough conviction to hold through greater than 80% drawbacks. The key word being, "conviction."

    And same goes for Soros, and Klarman, and Watsa, and Einhorn...and I could go on but the point would remain the same.
    Jul 10, 2013. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: The End Is Near [View article]
    Well as many of us are aware, the fast-changing technology sector was never Buffett's forte and his recent stake in IBM is most likely the choice of one of his younger, more aggressive managers rather than of Buffett himself or for that matter even Charlie Munger. Its progessively worsening situation on the long term debt front and a falling price to book value does not make it look as stellar as it once looked.
    Jul 10, 2013. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Still Needs To Get Punished For Us To Get Interested [View article]
    As a caveat, I would like to draw attention to the technical side of the picture, which right now looks pretty bearish and personally I would like to wait for a better entry point than what we see at present.
    Jul 10, 2013. 03:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Still Needs To Get Punished For Us To Get Interested [View article]
    BBRY remains one of the best value plays in the market at present. After the recent media manipulated short-slam that hinged entirely on emotional over-reaction, the value just got better. I cannot comment from a short-term trading perspective because my investment style primarily revolves on valuation axis, but if one is willing to stay put for a period of 2-3 years, this can easily prove to be a triple gainer from current levels.
    Jul 10, 2013. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: The End Is Near [View article]
    Very good call Arne. According to my valuation IBM is about 20% above fair value at current levels. Though it can certainly remain above the $150 mark for a long time owing to, among other things, the Buffett factor, but over the longer run, there are certainly better options available to retail investors compared to IBM at current levels.
    Jul 10, 2013. 02:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment