Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
People used to laugh at Schiff when he first predicted the housing bubble. And he was not proven right TILL the housing bubble actually burst.
Mr. Wagner, till the QE has been unwound completely and the interest rates have risen to their mean without making the debt overhead unsustainable, don't you think it is a bit premature to make a call that QE after-effects have been successfully taken care of for posterity?
More on SocGen's upgrade of BlackBerry (BBRY +4.8%): Analyst Andy Perkins says checks indicate FQ1 (May quarter) BB10 phone sales may have topped 5M, which is soundly above a 3M-4M consensus. He also still thinks "there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 [BB7] handsets but that this is falling rapidly." [View news story]
BBRY is currently quoting at below its book value (Price to BV is 0.76). Its price to free cash flow ratio at 3.7 is extremely undervalued compared to industry median of almost 24! And to boot, it is a zero debt company. By most valuation metrics, it is a low risk stock with about 20% downside risk and 100% upside potential over next 6 to 12 months.
Shorting BlackBerry: What You Need To Know [View article]
Good article. BBRY is quite undervalued, so it has a good chance of appreciating over the medium to long term. It is supported by all the right undervalued metrics and it has a moat in form of being the most secure platform amongst mobile devices. For investors with longer investment time frames, this can turn out quite well.
Dragging The U.S. Into The European Recession [View article]
When every country on the globe wants to grow it's way out of a looming recession by increasing exports and decreasing imports, it should be obvious to everyone that it cannot happen. Keynes had suggested that nations must run budget surpluses during boom years so that they had enough reserves to deficit finance their way out of busts. The modern day Keynesians have distorted that idea completely. When was the last U.S. ran a budget surplus?
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
Last time I checked, Schiff had some best sellers under his name. I also checked them on Amazon and quite a few of his works enjoyed stellar ratings from an overwhelming majority of the readers. That being said, there is nothing wrong if you are expressing your personal opinion about the man but for sake of objectivity, it would have been better if you had specified what was in that book that offended you to the extent that you had to actually burn it.
The Case Of The Bid-Button Happy BlackBerry Short Seller [View article]
BBRY, at the moment seems to be headed in a direction, where it could prove to be a good instrument for both short term swing traders as well as long term investors.
After reviewing Herbalife's (HLF +3%) short interest data, DA Davidson analyst Tim Ramey ponders whether Bill Ackman has thrown in the towel and "boxed" his short position on the stock. One option Ramey postulates is that Ackman may have sold deep in-the-money European-style put options to a counterparty, thereby significantly reducing his short exposure but allowing him to continue saying he hasn't covered. The pain has got to be great for Ackman right now on this one, the stock's total return is already pushing well over +40% YTD. [View news story]
Ackman would have made a killing on his short on HLF but for Carl Icahn. Everyone worth their salt on Wall Street knows that after closing his hedge fund and opting to use his personal $20 billion to do what he does best, Icahn is almost unstoppable. If Ackman is smart, he would unwind his position ASAP!
Some food for thought: since Nixon took us off the gold standard more than 40 years ago in August 1971, Dow has returned 7% compounded per year. Gold (which should not be treated as an investment, but rather as a store of value) has returned around 9.3% compounded annually. And many of us are aware of the fact do that study after study has indicated that around 80% of even the professional investors fail to beat the Dow... So in a nutshell, if gold is used as a store of value over a 10-20 year time frame, rather than as a purely trading instrument, one has a fairly realistic chance of coming out on the positive side.
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square says Herbalife (HLF +1.6%) "refuses" to release actual sales data, which violates a California injunction, and is requesting that regulators "promptly" initiate a probe of the company. Ackman says the release of the actual data collected by its distributors would "put to rest" whether it is or isn't a pyramid scheme. [View news story]
Ackman needs to cut his losses and cover his shorts ASAP. It will save him from much bigger losses down the road.
The €100B Spanish bailout added to EU/IMF pledges to Greece, Ireland, and Portugal brings the total to €486B since 2010, reports Linda Yueh. Got gold? [View news story]
As Marc Faber says, eventual black swans will most likely fly from the direction of India and/or China. China is way too much dependent on western consumption whereas India is laden upto its eyeballs in corruption. Both have massive asset misallocation and if West falls they will most likely fall faster and deeper.
Whether you like it or not Ackman's short position in HLF is not looking pretty at the moment. And with mega-players like Icahn and Loeb publicly lining up on the other side of the trade, it looks like a bleeder from Ackman's point of view.
You Can Bet On Gold Glittering Again [View article]
Thinking that in today's global economy, Wall Street bankers can easily control gold prices like they did before the Chinese and Indian middle class emerged on the scene - post 2008, would be a bit of a denial of the reality of shifting economic center of gravity. Eastern cultures love for gold goes back thousands of years and predates any of today's fiat currencies in existence. So as the purchasing power of the gold loving middle classes in countries like India and China follows a parabolic growth curve while the western middle classes witness a corresponding shrinkage, the eventual fate of gold will be decided by a tussle between the banker controlled paper gold in the West versus public-demand driven physical gold in the East.
8 Reasons Why Gold Could Face Downward Pressure [View article]
U.S. debt in 1915 was $3 billion and gold price was $21/oz. In less than 100 years the debt has exploded by over 5000 times! Gold has risen only 76 times. Those who say gold is in a bubble must not ignore the critical fact that sovereign debt is in a far bigger bubble.
Going forward, gold price will likely follow the trajectory of debt loads. In other words, unless debts are brought down to sustainable levels, gold will continue to be viewed as a monetary hedge against the expected money printing.
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
Mr. Wagner, till the QE has been unwound completely and the interest rates have risen to their mean without making the debt overhead unsustainable, don't you think it is a bit premature to make a call that QE after-effects have been successfully taken care of for posterity?
More on SocGen's upgrade of BlackBerry (BBRY +4.8%): Analyst Andy Perkins says checks indicate FQ1 (May quarter) BB10 phone sales may have topped 5M, which is soundly above a 3M-4M consensus. He also still thinks "there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 [BB7] handsets but that this is falling rapidly." [View news story]
Shorting BlackBerry: What You Need To Know [View article]
Dragging The U.S. Into The European Recession [View article]
Super Speculate Me--Not: No Shine In Gold's Future [View article]
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
The Case Of The Bid-Button Happy BlackBerry Short Seller [View article]
After reviewing Herbalife's (HLF +3%) short interest data, DA Davidson analyst Tim Ramey ponders whether Bill Ackman has thrown in the towel and "boxed" his short position on the stock. One option Ramey postulates is that Ackman may have sold deep in-the-money European-style put options to a counterparty, thereby significantly reducing his short exposure but allowing him to continue saying he hasn't covered. The pain has got to be great for Ackman right now on this one, the stock's total return is already pushing well over +40% YTD. [View news story]
Gold's Double Whammy Is In Play [View article]
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square says Herbalife (HLF +1.6%) "refuses" to release actual sales data, which violates a California injunction, and is requesting that regulators "promptly" initiate a probe of the company. Ackman says the release of the actual data collected by its distributors would "put to rest" whether it is or isn't a pyramid scheme. [View news story]
The €100B Spanish bailout added to EU/IMF pledges to Greece, Ireland, and Portugal brings the total to €486B since 2010, reports Linda Yueh. Got gold? [View news story]
SocGen gives BlackBerry (BBRY +3%) a two-notch upgrade to Buy, helping shares open higher. The firm has lifted its PT to $17 from $13, and reportedly forecasts BB10 sales well above consensus. FQ1 results are due on June 28. [View news story]
Herbalife: What Have We Learned? [View article]
You Can Bet On Gold Glittering Again [View article]
8 Reasons Why Gold Could Face Downward Pressure [View article]
Going forward, gold price will likely follow the trajectory of debt loads. In other words, unless debts are brought down to sustainable levels, gold will continue to be viewed as a monetary hedge against the expected money printing.