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A Biotech Triple Play: Dendreon, BioCryst and Arena

Yes Mike, Peramivir has failed multiple trials over many years. IM, oral and on and on.

So are you suggesting your price target for Biocryst is now 400M and not 4B?

A Biotech Triple Play: Dendreon, BioCryst and Arena

Somehow my comment disappeared so maybe i need to be a little softer.

You made two MAJOR gaffes in your Biocryst analysis.
One, Tamiflu is ORAL not injected. As a pill it's going to be dramatically cheaper to make, distribute and administer, plus it's actually effective unlike peramivir.

Two, Biocryst has a market valuation of $140M not $1.4B. This is a 10X difference, so your $4B target is 29X. This is a serious mistake on your part.

Peramivir has been shown in trial after trial that it doesn't work or barely has any effect at all. Stockpiling an ineffective drug, sure i guess the US government does dumber things. But driving Biocryst stock to a 29-fold gain, i don't think so.

Why Did Dendreon Execs Cash Out on Friday?

Why did they take profits? Because they could and will get reupped with options at lower prices than they just sold for.

Is Dendreon a $360 Stock - Or Is That Too Low?

Mike, you just don't get it. It will get minimal off label use if at all, it will barely be a rounding error. Insurance will never pay for it off label.

You're thoughts and projections are reminding me of the Elan bulls a few years ago, it was going to get 100% market share and be the largest selling drug of all time.

But it still has a long way to go, no approval until 2010 and we won't know who's right until sometime in 2011. I do think you'd be wise for your newsletter credibility to take a reality check and set more realistic expectations.

Thanks for attracting some interesting debate on here.


On Apr 23 05:43 PM Michael Murphy wrote:

> Before the approval of Rituxan, every treatment for b cell lymphoma
> was off-label, and insurance paid for all of them. If doctors establish
> a standard of practice, the payers follow. And, of course, DNDN will
> run those trials.
>
> Merck is buyng the wrong company.

Is Dendreon a $360 Stock - Or Is That Too Low?

Mike, you continue to not understand that insurance will not pay for this off label. It's irrelevant whether it would be useful or not in early stage unless dndn decides to run a pivotal trial. Another poster had it right, you're still living in the dot.com era. Your price target is far greater than what Merck is paying for Schering Plough by the way.

Is Dendreon a $360 Stock - Or Is That Too Low?

Mike, you aren't following me at all. Prostate cancer is inherently treatable if caught early. You're dreaming if you think this is going extend to early lines of treatement where there's no proven benefit and it would be suicide to take provenge in place of existing standards of cure and continue to progress albeit possibly a little bit slower. Plus insurance won't pay anyway so it's a moot argument you're making. Don't get me wrong, i'm long dndn but your $360 projection is just bad research. The trial was in AIPC, that's where the approval will be and that's where it will be used and that's all that will be paid for. Stick to the facts. I also wouldn't assume the technology will work in other cancers.


On Apr 22 11:06 AM Michael Murphy wrote:

> In the follow-up to the prior Phase III studies, after three years
> 34% of the men who were in the Provenge arm were alive, compared
> to 11% in the placebo arm. Do you not consider that "evidence of
> any efficacy or benefit versus current treatments?" How about the
> very low side effect profile for Provenge versus Taxotere? And if
> "insurance isn't going to pay for Provenge" then why do they pay
> for an inferior drug like Taxotere?

Is Dendreon a $360 Stock - Or Is That Too Low?

Your projections are out of control.

Provenge offers no cure. Insurance isn't going to pay for Provenge in areas where there's no evidence of any efficacy or benefit versus current treatments. Would you rather get castrated or take Provenge and die of prostate cancer a few months later? That's how your question should have read.

<<<Well, would you rather be castrated or try Provenge,”>>>

Dendreon's Provenge: Government Agencies Play Hide and Seek With Facts

Tony F, first of all, you can claim its about humanity all you want but its money dndn shareholders really care about. Its pretty simple, if the upcoming dndn data is good enough for approval, then yes, the fda will have proven to be too cautious. If the trial fails, then dndn shareholders will be proven wrong and provenge simply isn't particularly effective. Instead of this constant complaining and crying foul, lets see if provenge works in this trial, which I don't think is the foregone conclusion shareholders take as a given.

Dendreon's Provenge: Government Agencies Play Hide and Seek With Facts

I'm tired of whining Dendreon shareholders.

Dendreon's Secret "Lover" Revealed: It's Not Icahn

What's the deal with Susquehanna? Kool aid in their tap water, or does the dndn ceo hold some compromising photos? :)