It might be worthwhile to note presidential-election cycle patterns in the markets. That said, post-election years historically have been the weakest on the Dow (according to chartoftheday.com)
I remember in 1987 the week before 'Black Monday' was the worst in history. It made the cover of Time. But then 'Black Monday' hit and everyone forgot about the previous week. Just because we've had a big selloff doesn't mean we won't get another 'Black Monday' with all the average joes bailing out at the same time.
This year Buffett has been saying that the slowdown would be longer and deeper than many people think. If he's right (again) then we still have a long way to go. He's also been calling for higher inflation and a lower dollar over the next several years. Want part of his sweetheart deals? Buy some Berkshire Hathaway.
Warren Buffett thinks the U.S. has a bright future too . . . in maybe 5 years or so. But for now he believes the recession will be deeper and longer than many people think, inflation higher and dollar eventually lower. He could be wrong of course, but he did predict the dotcom crash, got into energy early and sold his house in California a few years ago at the top.
We'll see how the markets behave after the election. Or looking forward how they behave in '09. Post elections years don't have a very good track record.
On Friday Warren Buffett reiterated his belief the U.S. economic downturn will be longer and deeper than many people think and that inflation will continue to rise.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Funny coincidence that the Olympics, Russia's invasion of Georgia and the sudden surge in the dollar all occur at the same time and the leaders of these countries all happen to be together in China. Doesn't a stronger dollar help China too?
A couple weeks ago the Royal Bank of Scotland warned about a potential plunge in the markets, but that a rally could occur in early July first. Might this be it?
Well I can remember in 1973 Nixon immediately implemented the 55 mph speed limit, year-round daylight savings time, tv ads urging people to conserve by shutting off lights and turning the heat down to 68. Then people starting buying smaller Japanese cars. What have our leaders today done to urge conservation?
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Crude Awakening [View article]