Anders Olesen

Anders Olesen
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  • Is It Finally Sony Time?  [View article]
    I don't really get the comment "...That market cap supports sales of about $15.2 billion per year...". Sony has just reported revenues of 51.8B$ for the first 9 months of the current fiscal year?

    Also: "...predicted that will grow to 50 billion yen in three year..." should be 500 Billion yen operating profit, which makes quite a significant difference :)

    Finally, I think people are making far to much of the reorgs of the Mobile and other businesses, as I read the statements they are just legally turning these divisions into fully owned subsidiaries and giving them greater authority to manage themselves. That in itself won't change anything at all financially for Sony, an example of this can be seen in how Sony still reports results from the TV business in the same way it always has even though that division was split of in the same way some time last year.
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter  [View article]
    I must admit I have not read all comments before posting this, so if it is already mentioned elsewhere in the thread, apologies in advance.

    I just want to note that in Denmark the incentives for purchasing EV's are almost as great as in Norway, including EV's having no tax on their purchase price (except for VAT) where gas powered cars have a tax of no less than 180%. This leads to a similar situation as in Norway, so that a Model S in Denmark costs the same as an Audi A6 or BMW 5 series with a weaker engine, and is cheaper to run and park.

    Tesla currently sites a 4-5 month delivery time in Denmark and have no superchargers installed there, and did despite this manage to sell 32 Model S cars in Jan-Feb. I am quite certain that if 1-3 superchargers were installed (Denmark is rather small) and delivery times were reasonable, Tesla could easily sell at least 100 Model S cars a month in Denmark, and potentially even get to similar numbers to Norway.

    Note that similar to Norway though, EV demand in Denmark would be extremely sensible to changes to the incentives, which are bound to get reduced at some point.
    Apr 4, 2014. 09:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As PS4 Sales Outpace Estimates, Here's Why I'm Bullish On Sony  [View article]
    Good article, I am bullish on SONY myself as well, with a big positive driver being the performance of the PlayStation 4. I would say that making comparisons to peers based on P/E ratios is somewhat meaningless though, with Sony forecasting a loss for the year ending in march. I would argue looking at a turnaround like this something like price/sales is meaningful.
    Feb 19, 2014. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Strikes Back  [View article]
    Like most other tech, there is a continuous loop of expensive high end parts getting introduced, making previous gens more affordable. So in exactly the same way that you can buy a dual core android or windows phone for 100$ today that would have been very fast 3 years ago, in a couple of years your friends will be able to get this level of performance at a lower price than today. Or you could argue that the "high performance graphics for the masses" is Xbox One/PS4, although they are no where near the performance of this card.
    Oct 24, 2013. 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Strikes Back  [View article]
    I second the request for someone who knows the numbers to look at the Mac Pro win. The wonderful thing about Apple (from an AMD perspective, not customer) is that they are not at all concerned with forcing people to buy tech they don't need :). As I understand it, anyone who buys a Mac Pro will be forced to have two pretty high end professional AMD GPUs, even if you just need the CPU muscle of the thing.
    A quick "back of envelope": Apple sells around 4 million macs a quarter. Lets assume 5% Mac Pros -> 200k. A quick spec comparison would suggest that the base mac pro GPUs are similar to the FirePro V7900 (same number of stream processors and memory specs), costing around 630$ on Amazon for a card. If we assume half of that is the GPU, that would make 2*315$*200k = 126 million $ rev/q just from Mac Pro GPUs for AMD.
    That sounds very high to me, should certainly impact AMD's bottom line. What am I missing?

    The above calculation will of course just get even better if Apple force people who want fast CPU's to buy even more expensive GPUs, but even Apple would not go that far, surely?
    Oct 24, 2013. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Strikes Back  [View article]
    I think you are confusing something. The Macbook's use NVidia GPUs now, just as they used to do, so no change there for AMD. There might be a change for NVidia though, since I believe more of them now just use integrated graphics because Intel improved that a lot with Haswell/Iris. The win for AMD is in the Mac Pro (as in a proper old school desktop machine). I believe the previous Mac Pro (affectionately known as the "Cheese-grater") used AMD GPUs as well, but that has not been available for sale for some time, so the new model will be a net positive for AMD. See my other comment for an extremely uninformed estimate :)
    Oct 24, 2013. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: A Look At The Recent Share Price Decline  [View article]
    First, great article as usual, I really enjoy reading your stuff.
    However, I do not quite understand the comments about debt: You write "AMD has ~$580M in debt...", but it seems quite obvious from the statement that AMD's outstanding debt is around 2billion?
    Also, your assumptions about EPS improving due to debt repayment seem flawed to me. I remember seeing in the earnings slides that current cash levels are about where management wants them to be, which must surely mean that when the 555 million notes mature soon, the only way for AMD to pay them off is to issue a new set of notes for a similar amount? So the only difference this would make to earnings is if the AMD's borrowing costs have significantly changed from the 6% of the maturing notes, I have no idea if this is the case.
    Oct 23, 2013. 07:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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