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  • Paulson: Gold's Bull Run Is Just Beginning [View article]
    It bothers me that everyone is bullish on Gold. I sold my position at $1060 ( cost $450)
    Gold in 1967 $ should be around $700
    Looks real crowed here.
    I have sold naked puts at $900
    We'll see what happens
    Deflation still around. 10% unemployed and 10% of all houses empty. Banks still have a lot of crap on the balance sheet. Inflation may be a problem 3 years from now but the risk of a double dip looks high
    Nov 19 19:29 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Financial Stocks [View article]
    No Way. Big Money center banks are insolvent and will be nationalized in all/part. Common equity will be gone ( and maybe PFDs, a-la Fannie & freddie)
    Jan 20 20:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Massive Inflationary Pressures Will Lead to Uptrend in Gold [View article]
    We may be in a Japanese style liquidity trap where monetary easing and massive Government stimulus have done NOTHING in 15 years. Inflation may not happen here either, at least for a generation.
    Jan 17 08:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Why I Feel TBT Is About to Become a Goldmine [View article]
    I love TBT also BUT it may be awhile before it gains traction:

    1. We are still in a deflationary "scare" and risk aversion

    2. The Treasury does not need to issue debt IF the Fed is buying it up (ie creating $$). The Treasury debt DID NOT go up in December

    A Japan like liquidity trap has kept their bonds at 1% for ten years! Same here? I don't know.
    Jan 13 07:56 am |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Mortgages: The $400 Billion Ticking Time Bomb [View article]
    Sorry the author has been in SRS. What a lousy "tracking" ETF. I don't know what it "tracks" but it a'int the commercial real estate market
    Jan 11 17:02 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Waiting for the U.S. Treasury Bubble to Burst [View article]
    US Debt outstanding did NOT go up in the month of December (refer to US treas web site- "Debt to the Penny")
    The Federal Reserve is in this market and buying Treasuries to keep rates down. Monetary base has DOUBLED in the last 12 months. They can do this a long time as long as we are in a Recession al-la Japan. Whenever consumer demand does pick up ( 5 years ?) there will be the devil to pay and rates will go UP. But not yet. I wouldn't buy'em but don't bet the ranch that it is a bubble that will pop anytime soon.
    Jan 11 16:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • 2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift [View article]
    I agree- housing was going to roll over because of the demographics and the downturn has been exponentially impacted by the gross overbuilding and mortgage leverage.Housing is in deep trouble until 2013 at best no matter wahat happens to mortgage rates
    Dec 29 11:51 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment
  • Inflation on 'Sale' as Deflation Dominates Markets [View article]
    I agree with this blog BUT I am not so sure inflation will win out. Japan increased its Government debt to over 150% of GDP in the last decade and the nation is still mired in deflation. We could be headed for the same. No growth, low rates, low inflation for 10 years. There is a lot of secular demographics that could re-inforce this also. I own GLD just in case I'm wrong !
    Dec 10 07:40 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
  • We're Still a Long Way from a Real Banking Crisis [View article]
    as Yogi said "it ain't over 'till its over"
    Sep 12 22:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market In Its Final Stages? [View article]
    The S & P was equal to 60% of US GDP in 1996 before this stock market madness started. It is now 88% of GDP. We could drop alot further before this market is a "value". I still see too much bullishness. The financials and Realestate shares are up BIG time in early pre-trade today on the US takeover of FNMA. This is NOT good news ! FNMA was $68 in the last 52 weeks and is now ZERO. We are in a sH$D storm. This is not good news.
    Sep 07 20:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [View article]
    India will always be a country that has POTENTIAL. The have a huge bureacracy that will never let this country reach its true potential. China is kicking their butt
    Aug 23 21:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30 [View article]
    We may see $30 oil by 2035 BUT forget it now. Have you been to China. For every 1000 "fuel cell" cars we add there are 10,000 new Chinese drivers. Yes oil will be old news in a few decades but in the next 10-15 years it will go much hugher.
    Aug 16 06:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues  [View article]
    The Bureau of Public Debt shows US Public Debt outstanding at $9.5 Trillion. We are broke already !
    Jul 27 08:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • A Bottom May Be Forming in Home Sales [View article]
    Until the inventory of new/existing homes declines significantly ( currently 11 months down to 5) the housing market is in the tank. Why are builders still building and adding to supply? 2-4 more YEARS is my guess before we have a "normal" housing market again.
    Jul 27 08:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • India: The Bear Case  [View article]
    I agree - India is no China. Massive Indian Government will choke off growth. This is one nation where "democracy" is a hindurance !!
    Jul 06 07:34 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
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