FreddieBoy

Goldman: Gold to Rise Above $1,400 an Ounce by 2011

Gold is currently way ahead of inflation. CPI index was .154 in 1967 when gold was $100. Therefore gold should be $650 ($100 x 1/.154) to match inflation. There is alot of people jumping on the gold band wagon. Looks like NASDAQ in 2000 and housing in 2006. Be careful.

Dubai Default Raises Contagion Concerns

Its deflation stupid !! Dubai is just another example of the de-leveraging going on world wide. Gold will not continue to due well in a world that is short of cash !! Look for a correction and it could be a severe one, down to $850 level by spring. The gold trade is way overcrowed and way too bullish (short term)

Has Gold Reached Tulip Mania Yet ?

I have been long gold from $350 but sold at $1060. Seems like a bubble to me. CPI was .154 in 1967 which put gold at about $700 to keep up with inflation since then. Inflation doesn't seem to be on the horizon for some time. Wage pressure is ZERO. Looks like a lot of scared money. Yes tresury debt going up, but Japan is at 220% debt/GDP and the Yen is strong. When interest rates start to rise gold is in trouble. maybe a good hold 5 years out, but I'll buy back in at $850

Paulson: Gold's Bull Run Is Just Beginning

It bothers me that everyone is bullish on Gold. I sold my position at $1060 ( cost $450)
Gold in 1967 $ should be around $700
Looks real crowed here.
I have sold naked puts at $900
We'll see what happens
Deflation still around. 10% unemployed and 10% of all houses empty. Banks still have a lot of crap on the balance sheet. Inflation may be a problem 3 years from now but the risk of a double dip looks high

Massive Inflationary Pressures Will Lead to Uptrend in Gold

We may be in a Japanese style liquidity trap where monetary easing and massive Government stimulus have done NOTHING in 15 years. Inflation may not happen here either, at least for a generation.

Inflation on 'Sale' as Deflation Dominates Markets

I agree with this blog BUT I am not so sure inflation will win out. Japan increased its Government debt to over 150% of GDP in the last decade and the nation is still mired in deflation. We could be headed for the same. No growth, low rates, low inflation for 10 years. There is a lot of secular demographics that could re-inforce this also. I own GLD just in case I'm wrong !

The Swissie and Gold

Harry Browne did some great work on "gold backing" of currencies in the 70's. I have held cash reserves in Swiss Francs for years ( not as a gold allocation) and have done VERY well. Don't use SF as a gold hedge but a cash hedge instead of US$