De Graaf

PIMCO's Gross: 'The Dollar Is Over-Owned"

If Bill Gross tells you that the dollar is overowned. He's simply telling you to get out of his fund.

He's not going to tell you directly to drop your investments with his fund. But this is a clear warning message.

Get out while you still can. The bubble is bursting sooner or later. Forget smaller returns. Dollar is toast.

M3 Is Contracting Now

Thank you for your contribution. Very enlightening.

Its early to say, but logic implies that the US is heading towards depression like phenomena.

Private sector deleveraging, M3 declining, U6 unemployment close to historic highs and no jobs available.

The public side: money creation by the FED, GDP based on spending, stimulus for job creation equals temp. job savings with no productivity improvements, simply a GDP boost by increased spending. And last but not least, a gigantic accounting fraud at WallStreet and the government...

This can't go on much longer. Dollar confidence is at its end. Reality will sink in soon with most Americans for a revolution and when that happens, the foreign creditors have long left the dollar playing field.

So, Where's the GDP Disaster?

I honesly don't buy any of the GDP numbers coming out.

I mean c'mon, if unemployment is at 10 percent, U6 (1930 like measure) at 17 percent, you can't expect me to believe that the GDP is an accurate measure of economic growth!?

The more we spend, the bigger GDP gets...thats inherently phony.
Also, if companies are downsizing their payroll size and implementing other efficiencies that improve productivity, then GDP is suppose to decline! not grow!

The US is stepping in their own excrement soon but they won't see it as the roads are covered with a giant pile of leaves. Soon the man on the street will slip... and the cascade begins..

Europe Is Breaking Up Its 'Too Big to Fail' Banks

Neelie's agenda is very simple. That is to avoid monopoly market shares and to allow free market capitalism to benefit the European markets and therefore its people.

America could actually learn something from its forefathers...
End the phony economy in the US. Start reasoning for the taxpayer or continue to destroy the dollar, increase moral hazard and top the peak for a bigger economic collapse,...a currency crisis.


On Oct 29 08:36 AM the gerald wrote:

> what about DB, barclays, bnp,credit agicole, ubs, soc. gen, stb,
> unicredit, credit suisse, hbos? the idiot EU is transfering all the
> rbs ing, lloyds stuff over to the local(?)above mentioned banks.
>
>
> no other banks can afford to buy the big chunks. the list of the
> top 25 will shuffle a bit. all above mentioned are too big to fail.
>
>
> neelie has an adjenda, i don't understand what it is.

Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom

Roubini is a smart guy. Having said that: He's schooled as a Keynesian and so you can't blame his ignorance for gold aswell as the fact that he concludes that the current spending policy has saved us from depression....

Look outside, look at the Hoovervilles poppin' all over America, look at the U6 unemployment... no depression like phenomenons?

I think he should make a move towards Austrian economics. Never too late to learn some more in my opinion. Roubini is still young compared to Summers. He should retire instantly...

Dow Breaks 10,000 for 26th Time While Gold Shines

Well Jeff, I couldn't agree more with your writing. In fact, since I follow you, you make more than simple sense. Its valued.

Sound advice and keep it up!

Marc Faber: Dollar Weakness a Symptom of Inflation in the System

"Edward here. This might make for good headlines on Bloomberg, but it is patently false. The United States is not now or ever going bust. A sovereign government which borrows in its own currency in a fiat currency system can never go bust. An entity which borrows and prints its own money does not have the same constraints that, say, California or Ireland have. How prices are affected is another issue altogether."

Rob here. Never say never. Given, the US is able to print money till the dollar is at par with the manufacturing costs of its dollar paper mache project at the FED, but when confidence is lost in a currency (whether its a fiat currency would take a little longer than Zimbabwe) the dollar will continue to lose value and eventually go bust.

Another thing: Greenspan did one thing good, he kept policy inline with the borrowing capacity of your nation. Bernanke however, is testing the limits of debt to GDP in a time when GDP is shrinking due to deflationary pressures in the private sector. Remember, GDP in the US is based on spending. Contracting credit lines and efficiency (shedding jobs) will deflate GDP as you will see when the final statistics arrive.

I'm glad you acknowledge we are in a deflationary cycle. But I would want to add one thing to your knowledge. Mr. Faber is merely an inflationista (in your words) because of current US policy. The US will print its way out of debt if it needs to as confirmed by speech of Mr. Bernanke in 2002, if I recall correctly. Therefore, US policy is inflationary.

All credits to Marc Faber, who knows what he's talking about.

regards

American Austerity Is About to Begin

The political problem (for creditor nations and Central Banks that fund the US deficit) when they stop subsidizing America's exponential growth dream is too disturbing for them.

Remember what happened to France when they didn't suppor the war? There you go.

Those creditor nations just think by themselves...let us just get a low return (or perhaps a moderate loss) on our US dollar investments and keep the friendship going, or we could face a complete isolation in international matters by veto...

1. You fund the deficit and have good international relationship although the US will lose hegemony and power over time, or

2. Stop funding the US deficit and risk protectionist measures against your nation, plus the added effect of serious fiscal reform in America, once again revamping the US as a global power and lose respect for the coming century...for example.

Choice is clear for them, but I understand Shiff's ideology and principle which I fully support by the way, from America's perspective.

A Fed Official That Actually Makes Sense

Good article. Love the sarcasm.

Keep it up.

The Benefits of Too Big to Fail

Sean Ryan is spot on.

Explicit or implicit, either way the costs of implicit backing of risk by governments are obvious now.

If TBTF banks are allowed to exist in the future, which I expect they will, then improved regulation and higher risk insurance should be implemented on a global basis to offset the systemic failure. I believe Strauss Kahn of the IMF talked about that latter issue recently, to form one global pool of insurance covering all major markets.

You can allow greedy bankers to continue, or you socialize some of their profits in insurance pools on a pro rato basis. The bigger the bank, the more it contributes.

Hard work should always be rewarded without limits. But not on the back of society by means of Keynesian leverage.

Time for Austrian economics. The common individual centralized. Not MBA bonuses.

Housing Bottom? The $1.55 Trillion Effect

"But for now get that cheap conforming mortgage, use the tax credit and go buy a home."

I'm sorry to say: But this is the worst piece of advice I've heard in current circumstances. The argument is flawed in you understand the real problem in America. Consumtion by borrowing.

You say people always need homes. I don't concur with that statement as people need shelter. Shelter comes in many forms when a government defaults on its liabilities.

In Soviet Russia for instance, homes were centralized and mostly apartment blocks, easily heated with relatively low cost pipelines for basic needs.
In the US of today, we have a decentralized situation. When finance for (underground) electrical grids and water supply become scarce, as well as lacking maintenance for sewage etc, your newly acquired home will continue to diminish in value.

Also, when the CRE collapse endures in the coming years, communities will have less amenities and this will put more pressure on the housing prices accross regions.

And thats just some examples. Have you even considered the increasing crime level that is going to struck America in the coming decade? With so many weapons around, an depressive army force retreating to the States that lacks the proper Healthcare solution, you can bet you ass that there will be a revolt for basic necessities.
Cops and army personnel might look patriots now, but when they lose everything they got, you better prepare for their skills.

They won't all be supporting a rebuild of their communities as they are scrambling for their own survival after homecoming into...into what exactly? Wasteland II?

The 'great recession' will soon show to be a real 'depression'. America is falling apart and some of you out there aren't seeing that yet. Whether it is ignorance or lack of judgement, get those puppets in Washington out now, or face the consequences.

Regards.

Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Hit 4 Year High

"But why should this matter - the US is now at a point where inventory pick up and continued government flows into the economy will singlehandedly propel America as the spearhead of efficient capitalism well into the 22nd century. The only question is whether historians will use a "quadr" or "quint" prefix to the -illion when they describe U.S. indebtedness on December 31, 2099."

Wonderful sarcasm Tyler. Keep em coming. ;)

Monetizing the Debt: My Response to Zero Hedge

It doesn't necessarily takes a series of phonecalls to get coordinated actions performed.

"Implicit backing" for holding up my Wallstreet Company is enough to do the trick.

Of course, who can proof such bold statement. Surely not me.

Reviewing the 'New' Kid on the Gold Block

"The key change ETFs have brought to the market is transparency."

Thats a rather bold statement don't you think?

"The ETFs, by reporting their balances daily, now provide a small window into the activities of private investors."

This is no transparacy, this is a tiny window of volume. With HFT and custodian bankers around the block, volume means nothing these days.

Where my real value ! ;))

How Government Can Export Manufacturing Jobs

The real problem is flawed thinking.

Like in science, we base our models on the short term. We use steady state models that we 'improve' by using a correction input on the steady state model. Problem is, we eliminate the time constraint. Hence the flawed thinking.

If you define a source (problem or process) and only improve its path, you end up in excesses (peak volatility). Other way round: altering the source without its pathway, also results in inbalance.

We continue on a steady state model that is inherently flawed from the beginning. We should change the source AND its path to restore the nature balance. A recession should be embraced and can be limited in volatility by long term models that incorporate flawed thinking.

Its basically hedging your risk on the premise of lower growth. A controllable dynamic state of balance. Steady state is impossible! Nature doesn't provide for that!

When will we realize that the homo sapien is not able to change reality. Why do we want to continue on a path of imaginary results while history clearly shows we need a natural balance in this world.

Remember, volatility is an imperfection. The United states has continued on a steady state model that was unsustainable. People need to realize this or they become victims of their own demise.

Have a good day.